hey, that's a really good question.

I started my training with power in July 2013 and was test at 215 FTP.
By the time I raced Ironman Florida in November 2013, I was at 235 FTP without any VO2 workouts.
I am racing Ironman Lake Placid this weekend, and my FTP is estimated to be 270.

I think realistically, you can gain about 25-30% per year in FTP with proper training and workouts .
Hopefully my two cents helped!

:-)

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http://www.trainerroad.com/

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/..._reply;so=ASC;mh=40;

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Thanks I've got Trainer Road so I was going to do the 40km TT program for my bike specific training. I figured that would bring the greatest gains. Thoughts?

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"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

I'm right at your weight and have been biking only, mostly crits and road races. I had a rough FTP of 205, just finished Sweet Spot base I and some group rides every week for the past 6 weeks and tested last night at 241. I have def gotten better at taking the 8 min tests...but I know I have gotten stronger in the mean time.

I would get the base plans under your belt before taking on the 40k plan.

Just my experience, caveat emptor.

In my most recent race I forgot to turn off my Garmin after the bike leg so I'm not sure what the average wattage was but I did 20k in 33minutes in the wet averaging 36.1km/h. I think I have to retest my FTP as well but I'd think I have a good base already given that I ride 4x a week 2 of which are hard sessions of 60km or more. Sorry I'm trying to give as much background to ensure you all have the full picture.

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"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

I saw some big gains in the first few years, but I seem to have hit a plateau. 15% of FTP development in 1 year is a good year for me.

I have young kids, and a full time job, so I'm not riding 20 hours a week.

I wish I had a PM back in Dec. when I started my training plan. Raised it by 8% in the first 2 months, and it's mostly leveled out since. I haven't really focused on workouts to raise it. Being good at a 20' test in my basement where I can close my eyes and turn myself inside out, does not translate all that directly to holding 70-75% for 5 hours. But it gives me a baseline, a repeatable test in conditions I can easily duplicate. I'm Focused more on training load and specificity for my "A" race.

No reason that you can't raise it 10% or more in the off season. You just have to put in the work.

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I have managed to raise mine around 100 watts give or take a few in 3 years which is how long I have been cycling. Started at about 220 in Sept. 2011 and am around 320 at the moment. Very steady, hard work is the only thing that will get you there. I have found that as an older cyclist the stuff @ 110-120% of ftp is what gives me the most benefit but everyone is different. I wish I could improve with sweetspot workouts because I enjoy them but they don't seem to do much for me. I did used to be a pretty decent runner so I'm sure that has helped some also.

February 2012 when I started training with power I tested at 188 FTP
February 2014 tested at 285 FTP

I had the biggest jump after a threshold focused block in the winter of 2018 of about 8-12 weeks. Went from 235-285. I am new to triathlons (sprint 2010, Oly 2011, 1 70.3 2012 and 2013, and 4 70.3s in 2014) so I feel I can make some more large gains before I started to plateau. I would like to get to 300-325 in the next 3-5 years. I am heavier than you (200lbs) so my W/kg ratio isnt as good. I want to get to 3.5 W/kg

Less than a year at it for me went from 200ish to about 280ish in the past 7 months. I found a steady diet of doing sufferfest videos helped me raise it more than anything. I tried to do Wretched, Hell Hath No Fury and A Very Dark Place and ISLTAGIATT....about 5 hours a week tops on weeks I did manage to do them all. With more hours and consistency and less running than me I am sure you can get better gains,

It depends, but this is a good read: http://alancouzens.blogspot.com/...f-individuality.html

Decreasing marginal returns, for sure. Given the above, here's a visual (the chart, namely), and an example athlete who started out his debut year of cycling with an FTP of 285W. But the better answer is, it depends. While this athlete has tracked to Couzen's assumptions in years 1-3, it's doubtful world class p/wt will be attainable for him ever

25-30% per year is very optimistic, if not impossible. 5-15% per year is more likely after the first year.

How confident are you that your current FTP of 202 is accurate? The thing with most new riders is that they don't know how to suffer appropriately or properly pace a FTP test (whether it's 20' or a full hour). A lot of people see big gains in their FTP numbers simply by executing their tests better with very little change in actual fitness.

I say that you have a lot of gains to make if you put in the proper training. Lots of sweet spot riding (roughly 80-90%) and some shorter efforts in the 110-120% range will do a lot of you are consistent in your training. I didn't have a powermeter for my first few years, but if I'd have to guess I maybe started with an FTP of around 220 W six years ago. Currently it's around 335-340 W, and I've definitely plateaued over the past few years. At this point, maintaining my bike power and focusing on my swim is a better ROI.

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I've only done one test and it was during a 16 week build up program for the race season so I was a bit fatigued. I think more realistically it's around 219-227 range as I've been noticing with my training drop to maintenance mode (3-4 days a week rather than 6) I'm very much fresher on my rides. I'm pretty confident I know how to suffer but I'll leave room for this as well. I'd like to think I have a high threshold for pain and suffering so when I set out to go "all out" I'm aching when I get to the finish pretty profoundly. I've got a good test this weekend at a local race which will tell me more accurately where I am at now.

Thanks for the feedback everybody! I really appreciate your wisdom and opinions

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"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

+1. I've been at the same FTP plateau for years. If I could get even a 5% improvement in a year then I would be over the moon. Once you've done it for a while, those percentage gains get really hard to come by.

Yup - same here ... :(

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Fatigue is biochemical, not biomechanical.
- Andrew Coggan, PhD

If 25-30% gains, over multiple years, was common - we'd all have FTPs close to the pros.

If you started at 200w, and got 2 back to back years of 25% gains, you'd be at 313w. It's 390w after 3 years. At some point, you're limited by genetics and other life obligations.

I'd say you should be happy with 20-25% year one with some real focused work. Very possible for you. How to go about it is personal.
In your case just riding a bunch should elicit gains. Worry about year two after year one.

I hate these charts... maybe they work for a large amount of you but I'm sitting around 280 ftp and there is ZERO chance I can ride 260 watts for an Olympic and be able to run what pace I want. Maybe I bike 260 and the faster bike time makes up for the lack of run but I wouldn't want to test that theory.

I went through a period where I was obsessed. One attempt with a coach, and the other on my own using my Computrainer. Both times I found myself dreading my workouts and eventually burned out.

Its going to be hard, but I think those gains are realizable. Personally, from my experience, I went into it too fast and found my burnout. Maybe getting more base miles you can get some where more sustainable. Would be interested to see how the rest of the community responded.

The advice I generally get when I ask around is simple, "time in the saddle." Just keep riding. There are a bunch of winter plans out there and some very capable coaches also that are very reasonable. Chanthony worked with the coach I had and he's just flourished. He is also a freak so it may be weighted a bit.

Good luck.

I agree that 25% is wildly optimistic beyond year one. And how much of that first year is pacing is a legitimate question as well.

For those of us who've more or less stagnated FTP-wise, anyone else noted that their power-duration curve flattens out? My FTP seems only slowly changing, but my ability to hold higher percentages of that in a half is still growing.

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I have a similar FTP and will be doing IMMT. I am 5'9" and 165-lbs.

What %FTP or watts will you be aiming for at IMLP at? I am thinking 215w is my number.

I would be interested to hear how you do at IMLP if you could let me know.

For those of us who've more or less stagnated FTP-wise, anyone else noted that their power-duration curve flattens out?

You can nearly max out your <CP60 in less than a year, starting from scratch. The long distance will keep improving for ~10 years or so... or at least it can if you work at it.

Obviously it will vary from person to person but are their any standard expectations one should set?

No.

It would require a thorough evaluation of where you are and how you got there. What was your FTP when you first started to ride? What sort of shape where you in when you started (including your exercise regime)? What training have you done since you started? Ever had a VO2 max test? How old are you? Even then it's pretty much a WAG.

Twice in my life when I started cycling hard I experienced ~70% gain in FTP in less than 6 months (180W-300W)... and very little improvement after that. So I think you can get close to your potential in 6 months or less if you are already decently fit. Might as well just do the work and find out.

Apologies. The cells in blue are inputs. They can be changed. They are specific. The cells in black are outputs--they are calculated based on those inputs and cannot be changed. Most amateurs cannot ride 70.3s at 0.88 and run a strong half afterwards. Some can.

Over the 2009-2010 winter, I followed a 14wk long bike specific program the first time using a trainer and gained 14% (Critical Power method using 5' and 20' tests). It had 3 phases, Improve VO2 (raise the roof), Improve Submaximal (slow glycolsis), Improve Threshold.

After taking 2012 off and getting back into the game in 2013, this past winter I followed a 12 week program as prep for an early season HIM. I gained 12% focusing doing Sweetspot and Threshold trainer rides between 60 and 105 minutes in duration. Also tried to ride once a week outside with a local roadie group.

I think anywhere from 10-20% gains your first time through a focused program is a good estimate.

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<We all know that light travels faster than sound. That's why certain people appear bright until you hear them speak>

Hwi did you determine your FTP? Some coaches refer to "critical volume". How many mikes do you ride a week?

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Not sure what my FTP is because don't test.
Nov 2013 did 2 hour ride at 178 watts with heart rate of 128 bpm
July 2014 did 3 hour ride at 216 watts with heart rate of 130 bpm

20 minute max effort immediately after 75 minute hard ride (I never stopped the whole 95 min). Yes, I know it's not how you're supposed to do it but this was harder than any FTP test (minus a straight hour TT) I've seen. And I did do the 95% of what watts I pushed for the 20 minute effort.

As for miles, I tend to find that pointless when talking about volume because I ride long mountain climbs on every ride. I do about 10 hours of cycling a week (one 5 hour ez ride, everything else hard intervals).

FWIW... I've never been good at shorter distances. My 10k open run is a tragedy. But looking at that chart, pushing 202 watts for 140.6 and running well after seems doable and is damn close to my goal watts (196w) for my A race.

Also FWIW... not sure what the 20min column is for but when I do 20min intervals in training, I go about 290watts avg.

Using Normalized power, the charts are pretty close to where I'm at for an "A" race at each distance based on my 20' FTP test.

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Looking at it that way, it's more realistic. And the 204w for IM is only 2watts high for me.

I'm doing an Oly this weekend and the plan is to go hard on the bike and survive the run. I was thinking 240avg... so maybe close to 260 np. I'm interested to see now.

 

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With all this said, I'm on the "time on the saddle" bandwagon. Just ride frequently and as much as possible, don't pussy foot and strength will come. My A race is rollers, so I'm all about strength, not staying aero for 5 hours. I did CZ last year and trained properly for that... and fucking hated it!

When know power heart rate irrelevant or misleading.

Care to share what those programs were?

Explain. Heart rate is my primary metric. After all it's the one metric that links all three sports together. Tells me what's going on with my engine. I use power, during training, as a means to gauge progress. Now for racing I'll use power as primary if temp is on cool side but if temps spike I'll switch to heart rate to help regulate things

Heart rate not actionable intelligence. Use RPE. Heart rate variable. Affected by many thing. Heart rate not account stroke volume only tell how fast heart.

Sure, they're on the other site (BT).

First one is listed in the site's training plans section, weeks 1 & 2 are prep and usually skipped (I never do them). Meat of it starts week 3. You can see the workouts for each week on the 'Plan Workouts' button/tab. I don't know if the workouts are on TR and I only found weeks 2-4 on Golden Cheetah listing. I also have it all in a spreadsheet if you have a Kurt Kinetics trainer and don't have ANT+ pickup, were you can input speed avg for the testing and it cross-correlates the power/speed curve for the workouts. That's how I did it at first.

The second was part of a mentor group using TR or GC. Search "power mentor group" and you'll find the thread starting with those words. The workouts were provided weekly so its not laid out as a readable program per se. You'll have to scroll through the pages to find the GC files. If on TR the workouts may be on there as I believe someone was making and listing them.

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<We all know that light travels faster than sound. That's why certain people appear bright until you hear them speak>

Yup.
And always believe there are 10 more watts to be had, and try hard to get them.

repeat until fast.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Glad to hear they were useful. I have all the workouts if someone wants them.

thank you

it would be helpful for me. ill DM you.

If it's useful at all, here's a table that shows my progress from barely-been-on-a-road-bike up to today:

12/15/13 - 192
3/18/14 - 215
5/11/14 - 225
7/10/14 - 239
7/29/14 - 253

Progress has been steady - all 2014 tests have been on my tri bike, in the aerobars exclusively, on my trainer, with zero tapering of any kind. Learning how to get a feel for suffering-but-not-overdoing-it has been important, but I can also feel myself getting stronger. I really like going back and doing one of the workouts that was previously challenging, at my current fitness - it's all the positive reinforcement I need to keep hammering, recovering, and improving. Goal is to get to 300 by the end of the year, which looks like it's a stretch at this point, but we'll see.

Oh, if you're wondering about the gain from 5/11 to 7/29, I felt like I learned a ton about fatigue and effort management at IM CdA, as well as getting stronger in general, so I think that and the recovery in the following weeks explains much of the gain up to last night's test.

Physical details:
6'1"
165 lbs (trying to get down to 160)

Cheers,

-- Jake