I always root for Joe Skipper, although I can’t remember the last time he did really well in a 70.3. He might be helped by having several other relatively weak swimmers and strong bikers around him. Plus being British the crap roads will not faze him ;)

agreed that field size will probably be the most important factor here. how on earth do you have 70 pros spaced 20 meters apart? that's a pacechain that's literally one mile long.

there are some strong swimmers, but not a lot. guys like lagerstrom will always swim well here, and the ITU guys will comfortably be up front, but it would be better for them to have a kanute/royle/etc. maybe currie would be strong enough to swim up to the front and then stay away. sanders is interesting because i still reckon he can bike about as well as long, and has traditionally been a better runner (remember he ran a 1:08 on this course!), so maybe he could separate himself a bit. but i don't see huge separation between him and guys like long and laundry.

otherwise i imagine a long blob of guys exiting the water in a line and riding that way too.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

81 dudes. There's going to be some packs on the bike and males interfering with the women's race.

I really think IM should consider limiting these pro fields.

---

blog

yeah, this was the case last year, wasn't it? some back-of-the-pack men's racers were being overtaken by the women, and tamara (after a great-for-her swim) managed to stay connected with a good group on the bike. put her intro striking position on the run, for sure.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Yeah it was similar last year. Though I think there were 70ish men??

It really messes up the dynamics with the womens race. The women at the front could really get a benefit by riding with a group of men. The women behind are then chasing a pack that they will struggle to catch. A man could cause one of the women to inadvertently get a penalty.... etc, etc.

---

blog

The issues compound. Even just 50 riders at 20m is 1km long, actually more because 20m is the limit, so they'll likely be 21-25m back. Let's call it 1.1km. At 45kph that line is 1.5minutes long. That's not nothing to start the run even just 1 min back based on position. Let's also consider that with 35 seconds to pass (realistically 30 to not be so close to the limit) a weak swimmer biking onto the back of the field is looking at >25 minutes of passing to get to the front. In order to close 20m in 35s you need a 2kph speed differential. In order to close it safely (22m in 30sec) you need more that 2.5kph. That's around a 40w increase to just barely make it (45kph to 47kph). It's just not gonna happen beyond passing a few riders. Coming up on a group >10 is effectively going to be a wall. Unless I can get to the front and drop the group there's no way that passing 10 riders to gain ~30 seconds is worth 5 minutes at +40w.

That's to say nothing of the hugely increased risk of failing to complete a pass and getting a penalty.

Tangent - I think we're going to see bottles and hydration systems mounted so high up that they're effectively jersey bottles. all it a 'chest rest'

That's a gigantic men's field. WOW!!!

Jelle Geens sticks out, and although I think he is going to do great in the swim and run, not sure how good he will be on the bike; Oceanside is not an "easy" bike, and I don't see Geens as an uber biker.

I'm having a hard time picking a winner.

This race is going to be an absolute mess. Skipper is going to go off on his pod after he gets fucked on the bike as mathematics explained above.

Lange, Geens, Sanders
Knibb, Findlay, Pallant-Browne

Isn't the draft distance at Ironman branded events still 12m?

It still will be undoubtedly a long line. But it does change the math a bit.

---

Matt Guenter

IM uses Race Ranger for the IM Series races

Race Ranger can be set to any distance.

In fact, to think that at least three people assumed that 20 meters were somehow hard-coded into Race Ranger is nothing short of amazing.

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

It was a huge men’s pro field last year, but Sam Long came into T2 with the lead group so it’s definitely not impossible to come from behind. I think the hills break groups up and stop it just being a procession.

wait you assumed that we (if i'm one of the 3) assumed. I only said that IM uses RR, and did think that the 'range' could be adjusted !
no big deal anyway !

Well since there will be about 6 to 7 minutes from first male pro to last out of water, that gives about 3 miles of bike road for everyone to get sorted out. And with 12m instead of 20m, there should be plenty of room for everyone. Some long lines of riders, for sure. But so what, it is a race and they are racing, some will blow up from holding that line, others will conserve at that pace and crush the run.

I just find it amazing that so many pros will race for so little money. Perhaps it is everyone's dream of the series bonus pool. After all it is not your place that matters, but your time from leader. So a guy getting 50th place could still get good points if the field is bunched up, even though he was no where near the daily prizes. Also early season and folks are chomping at the bit to just race..

With a 12m draft zone and traveling 27 mph, riders are spaced ~1 sec apart (.99 seconds).

---

blog

I'm actually excited by 80 men/40 women racing in the pro field. We can do races with thousands of amateurs. We can do races with 100+ pros. Put more time in between the men's & women's start. Enforce a lap out rule where if you're caught by a woman you have to drop back/can't repass. There's a lot of good athletes in each field past the top-20 & they deserve a shot to race top level competition. Oceanside is the unofficial kickoff of IM racing in North America. It's exciting that there's this much interest in the professional race.

womens: Knibb, Pallant-Browne, Brandon

mens: Currie, Lange, Laundry

As a new pro, I'll chime in.. there are less opportunities to race as a pro than what I've seen in the past. The depth of this field is a combination of easing standards to qualify to race professionally, the lack of early season races, and the lack of overall domestic 70.3 pro races this year. There are 8 70.3s in the US this year with a pro field available - so naturally, less races to choose from means that more people will head to one race.

The depth at the top of this field will be awesome to witness. There are ~25 guys that could theoretically have a shot at the podium, or at least a top 5.. which will probably cause some big risks being taken at the front and some big blow ups as a result.

---

Matt Guenter

Yes, they use race ranger, but they haven't changed the distance. Race Ranger I'm assuming is just set to flash at 12m.

Regarding Sam's chances in Oceanside, if he stands a chance he'll have to smash the bike and still have legs to put down an epic run since it's almost certain to be 12m, not 20m draft limit. Remember, IM released a recent rules update for 2024 and they said nothing about the draft zone going to 20m. I can't believe they'd just have some races be 20 and some be 12. Seems to haphazard for a professional slower moving organization like Ironman.

Sanders I wouldn't be surprised to seem him come on strong in Oceanside and St George and look to do well in Taupo too. Neither of those have any interference with Kona. Sadly, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him race totally flat and have some expected list of reasons. I hope he crushes it.

That's fair!

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Don't worry people will complain if there are too many pros. Not enough pros. Not enough big names, or their favor gets beat by someone they don't know ( not a big name to them).

If you beat them as an age grouper instead of a back of the pack pro too.

So just do what's best for "YOU" everyone else is.

This is not the best top depth of the filed Oceanside has seen but still good talent. Overall Sam and Lionel are the best 70.3 triathlons on the list. I think Sam say this as an easy opportunity close to home due to no big names like the past.

---

Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

Just came across the start lists for this, absolutely stacked.

Very interested to see how Geens does, he's not been back to his best, (maybe since covid?)

He was one of the ITU uber runners and regular podium for couple of years.

Who the fook are the dudes #41-80? They really need to bump up the entry barrier to become a pro. Kind of embarrassing.

Just guys who could win non-pro 70.3s whenever they want, dedicating their lives to getting better at triathlon. So much negativity for no reason.

I think that new pro hit it on the head. There aren't as many domestic 70.3 pro races this year. Most of them are tied to the IM Pro Series. Where do you go if you're too good to race AG but aren't winning races? Some people don't need the ego boost of winning a local 70.3. Some people have earned their pro card & want to race against other pros & find out how good they can get at this. But, sure, anonymously trash on them. 70.3 Maine & 70.3 Augusta will be the races for those athletes this year. But you can't tell all of them to wait & not race. Triathlon doesn't have the same constraints as a running track race with 8 lanes. Oceanside is gonna send off a couple thousand AGers. They can send off 120 pros. It's exciting that so many good athletes are coming together to kick off race season.

On the actual race: I think Sam & Lionel are two of the top 70.3 athletes in the field but I also think someone like Jackson Laundry is hungry, after missing out on the PTO Tour. He's not giving the IM Pro Series a serious go because he's not going to race fulls. He needs as many good results as he can get if he's going to earn a PTO wild card. I also think Jelle Geens is a huge talent. Sam is obviously in form rn. Unclear how sharp Lionel is since he'll have to be ready to roll at the full distance multiple times this year.

You hit the nail on the head. I have no interest in winning the undercard, much rather take a shot at the big show. It's a 6 or half dozen decision. You can win AG's and they'll ask why you don't race pro. You race pro and they'll ask why you don't win AG's.

AG racing, even at the front, is a bit of a mess compared to pro racing. Staggered starts, limited officiating (hello drafting), a mess of fast swimmers riding 4 wide.

100%

---

http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

Who are you to decide whether they can race pro or not? Clearly they meet Ironman's criteria and that's what counts. If you don't like it, go get a job at Ironman and influence it from inside the org.

Ironman is making opportunities for more pros and this guy wants to bitch about it.

---

http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

Riele here. I have the Oside amateur record and made my pro debut here last year. I sucked and blew up but went for it. I swam front pack and went with Sam Long and Jackson most of the day before blowing up at mile 40 climb, and then limping across the course and ending up on crutches with a hip stress fracture from overtraining.

Healthy and back for some revenge this year... Here are my predictions.

Swim:
- The swim is just as hard as the top 1 or 2 guy's ability in the race. everything trickles down from there. We have Marc Dubrick, Matt Sharpe, and Matt Schafer in the race and it's going to be full gas. The chaos of 80 guys out to the first buoy will be crazy. Definitely excited. Going to get physical and string out. T1 will be a mess, the first 5 miles of the bike will be a mess with drafting, passing, etc. But my prediction is that it's going to be an insanely hot swim, strung out single file, with 30ish guys coming out within 2 minutes of the leader more like ITU style.

- Notables in the front swim pack: Dubrick, Sharpe, Lagerstrom, Geens, Tomas, Angert, Sperl, Quenet, Sharpe, Gillespie, Riele, Schafer, Currie, Lagerstrom, with Laundry right behind. A lot of these dudes can ride well. It was a very similar group at Indian Wells, and we held off Sam the entire bike ride. I don't think that will happen with Sam's current form, and the climbs, but I do predict 1 to 2 "big names" that don't make the front swim group never really being in the race if they can't bridge up to the front group on the Sam Long / Lionel Sanders bike train.

Bike:
You'll then have a TON of bike firepower coming from behind - Sam Long, Lionel, Trevor Foley, Skipper, Lange, Leiferman, Hanson.

Hanson and Lange will need to hang with Long, Lionel, Skipper train to be in the mix for a podium. And it's not clear to me whether Sam and Lionel will be able to bridge up to the massive front swim bike.

Jelle Geens bike power looks to be pretty insane. I've never raced him but he's doing workouts with 2 hours at 300w+ at 140ish pounds with some crazy run numbers. I'm hoping he's cranking the front pack pace and we stay away from everyone chasing from behind for at least 30 miles while dropping the less strong riders.

I think we'll see something similar to last year - Jelle Geens (instead of Leo Bergere) driving the front bike group trying to hold off Sam and Lionel and Skipper (and Lange?) for as long as possible. Attacks getting thrown down when the climbs hit at mile 35, then blowups the last 20 miles. Some guys running through the field (Lange probably racing for a 3rd or a 5th here with a 1:09 run). But the winner IMO will come from the front swim pack (Jelle, Jackson, or Marc IMO) - unless it's Sam Long or Lionel.

Recognizing that there are 10 guys that could run 1:08-1:12 here, we'll definitely see some blowups. Just hope it isn't me (but it definitely could be because I and most other mid packers are here to race for a top 10, not a 15th or a 20th...)

Well, one of those guys used to race in my AG (40-44), and many folks complained that he was too good to race AG despite having a full time job, so he turned pro. He is a 4 hour type of guy, so he has the street cred to race pro.

And here you are, complaining. If they are too good to race AG, you folks complain, if they turn pros..you also complain.

Hanson and Lange will need to hang with Long, Lionel, Skipper train to be in the mix for a podium. And it's not clear to me whether Sam and Lionel will be able to bridge up to the massive front swim bike.//

Some good insight from the middle of the field and the struggling pros perspective. But you do know that Patrick Lange is a front pack swimmer, right? He is not coming out of the water anywhere near Lionel or Sam. But not to say they will not see him on the bike at some point, but he will have a several minute lead to get ready for the onslaught. Good luck and give us a race report as soon as its over.....

I'm super happy to see so many pros racing. The more the better, as we'll see real competition.

I don't know who'll win, but I'm almost sure neither Lange nor Skipper will make a podium. None of them excels early in the season, none of them is a middle distance specialist.

I don't know who'll win, but I'm almost sure neither Lange nor Skipper will make a podium. None of them excels early in the season, none of them is a middle distance specialist.//

You're missing the larger point, dont think either care about any podium, or even top 10. IT is all about the points, so it is time from winner they care about in this race. Sure they plan to shine in the full distance races later on, but this one is just to get maximum points for 1 of their 2 halves they gotta do...

Thanks for the breakdown Justin. Been enjoying your YouTube vids.

---

Let food be thy medicine...

in fairness lange is a struggling front pack swimmer usually either one of the last that can hang on or at the lead of the dropped swimmers depending on his form.

i would not bet on geens making the front group either his swim is more like norwegian method level.

this is what i was saying above - lots of good swimmers here, but maybe not enough of the truly "off the front" swimmers to drive a breakaway.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Heh, so does that mean you're going to go for it again? :)

I was excited to see you in the mix on the webcast.

Speaking of webcast... is this year's race going to be streamed on Outside TV? Is there a schedule for which races are going to be streamed?

Edit: Looks like they are streaming this as well as other races again this year.

https://watch.outsideonline.com/live-events

Money will have a great race, and be a great dad on Monday. Luckily he has the pro card so you and I can both sleep easier :)

---

http://www.researchms.org/trifest/

Lol, I was actually thinking about another heavy hitter in M40-44 at around the same level. FYI, I have "raced" and shared the podium a few times with some of these guys and I don't really care how much stronger they are, but have a lot of respect when they toe the line against the best in the world and can't complain when they destroy us in AG as they deserve to be there if they want.

I sometimes feel like there could be another category, like elite AG or semi-pro for these AG guys to have a competitive race and also for some neo-pros to have a bit of a stepping stone from like 4:10 level to sub 3:50.

Not a bad idea for Ironman to launch semi pro division that goes off after female pro and is the proving ground for a year before an athlete can go pro. Top AGs within a certain finishing time of pro get promoted to semi pro at end of year. Bottom pros get relegated to semi pro. The kicker for Ironman? These guys pay 50% entry fees rather than a one time annual fee.

Idk about relegation. USAT standards are clear -- hit them & you're a pro. It's ok that not every pro is Magnus Ditlev. It's ok for our sport to have some depth, like every other sport does. Not sure IM could go rogue with their own standards. I think 80/40 pros at Oceanside is exciting. The race is going to accommodate a lot more than that. It's not their fault there aren't as many domestic races to choose from this year. If that's the critique then say that the IM Pro Series is reserved for top-X athletes & pros not in there have to race the non-IM Pro races. But IM doesn't have their own rankings so they would have to default to PTO on that. Regardless, local races often have elite fields for top AGers to start together/compete directly with one another. The rolling starts take some of the racing away for top AGers at IM races. You don't know where you are in a race. I've been there & have been separated by less than 10s in either direction on an AG podium. It's frustrating when your finish times are identical but you never saw each other during the course of a 4hr race. The rolling swim starts are a little chaotic because there's no rules. It's like going to a local 5k & some people right on the start line are going for the win & others want to run out the 1st 400m. I know it's not perfect because swim & finish times are going to be different but I don't see how having corrals based on finish time could help at least establish athletes starting around people with similar skill levels. Some sort of mass start for athletes with some sort of qualifying mark.

Agreed on all this. Cycling has Pro/Cat 1 races with >150 people and there's no issue, they're also racing literally on top of each other. IMO a USACycling Cat 1 license is nearly equivalent to a USATriathlon Pro license, in terms of difficulty to attain.

The issue IM could run into is if pro fields become so large that they are untenable for pro rules racing, but that's closer to 500 people than 100. (In reality they'll quash that issue long beforehand due to losing sticker entry fees on that many people).

I guess the other question from IM's perspective is what benefit do they get from having an elite/semipro field? The participation cohort won't care, if anything they may feel ostracized by being 'third tiered', the current mid-pros will be peeved by not getting to race the big show, and the top AG's will be frustrated by losing once again to mid-field pros. The only people I can see liking that move are a few mid-field pros who want to win the B-race and the true sandbaggers who can now win the C-race.

Makes sense

Like minor and major league baseball

From a practicality standpoint, IM *could* go rouge and create their own standards *if* it wants to. There is current precedent in multisport pro racing that does that- Powerman within duathlon (the IM of duathlon basically). Now I think for the most part, IM knows when to push back and do it's own thing and when to sorta bend the knee to the federation powers. In that sense they basically get whatever they want, they can pretty much pivot off any rules they want to when they want too. But in this instance, I think this is far too much into the weeds than worth their time.

I've been around elite development for 15 years, I've seen all the pro license pathways. At this current time, it's harder *NOW* more than any other time in the sport (in the US especially). I think the biggest issue with LC triathlon is that there is no standards within pro races, except for what the WC's. Every other event you can just "sign up" for and you can race. That's very rare in sports, it's sorta the opposite in ITU. There's hurdles you have to complete before moving to the next level of racing. So in that instance with IM's decisions to basically be a "all comers" for all but what it's World Championships, this is the issue you run into. Now you also need to have some smart people around you, like if your a new pro and you are still competing with a major weakness, just doing Oceanside because you can- that's stupid. Go race events where you can be competitive and grow and development. Just because you can, doesn't mean you always should (but again the rules allow any pro to show up and race regardless if they likely *should* at an event of this caliber).

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think that anyone that meets the criteria for getting their pro-card should be welcomed to the race. Its not the world championships and all pro's need opportunities to develop and earn their stripes. I would also be careful of discounting anyone. I have been around the sport long enough to see people come "right out of the blue" with top finishes.

---

Michael Hay - helped on the journey by the great folks at ZiZU Optics, (for the custom fit), and Bialkowlski's TRYSPORT

Well M55 is or was the National 3km indoor record holder for indoor track, ran at NAU and is a sub 28min 10k guy but struggled to run the high mileage that most at NAU ran (maybe 1 too many indoor in that sentence but hey it's early). he also tried to race ITU and won some development races, one with a broken seat post. Slowman wrote about him here

M60 is a former national team rider/pro cyclist who has also placed top 5 OV pro's at Oside a long time ago (maybe 3rd iirc) who was beating the F out of amateurs the last few year and still finishing with times in the top 10 OV at 70.3 so decided to race pro again.

M69 was a guy who used to beat the snot of the AG 70.3 fields are well. Poor swimmer really good runner, also typically has a poor bike set up. I once, maybe twice at races pointed out how poorly his bike was set up on IG. used to leave 1-2 minutes on the table just from that, might still, IDK

M41 is a local to Tucson pro. Poor swimmer, solid bike and run. Won't be a factor but would be near the top of the AG field

If any of these 4 raced AG they would be the top seed or one of the top in their AG and let's face it, a lot of age group athletes, maybe the majority, would rather see them race pro instead of AG.


Big props to abundant_pasta_ aka Matt for getting on here and posting a bit about himself. Same with TriSki20 and mathematics. I wish more pros would do that.

Mathematics, Matt and TriSki20, all you guys should put links to your IG or Youtube in your signature line on ST. It's a great way to develop a following and if you're a pro gain a few IG followers which sponsors are currently loving according to the pro's I've bike fit and aero tested this year.

As for my guess I'm betting on Marc the Shark Dubrick in the top 3 after his top 8 finish at 70.3 Worlds. Former XC runner in college, grew up swimming, came for the DL pathway and recently shaved about 20w of drag off his CdA. Will push >300w on the bike and seems to be really fit now.

---

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

I believe the problem lies in the absence of an elite/non pro field at 70.3 races. At many smaller local races across the country, there is an elite wave where the best amateurs go head to head, and not infrequently beat these BOP to MOP pros. There are many "pro" triathletes on that list who have not demonstrated performances significantly better than the best amateurs, and their addition to the start list is not harmless. Having 80 athletes with similar ability at a mass swim start will create massive chaos and potential injury. The bike start is going to be terrible for anyone not in the top 15 out of the swim. Many weak athletes will draft their way to fast bike times. Many strong bikers will expend excessive energy trying to pass and get rid of these weaker athletes. In addition to the A and B listers, two other types of athletes should be let into the pro field. 1. Athletes who have demonstrated world class ability in one of the disciplines, and are reasonably strong in the others, and 2. Athletes who are consistently wrecking the elite/non pro fields that I detailed above. This would take a 70.3 time of around 3:50-3:55 on your standard course, which many of those "pros" have not ever achieved. The field should be capped at 40. That's my two cents.

It's ok for our sport to have some depth, like every other sport does.
---
The problem with our sport, compared to other sports, is that the 'depth' don't get paid enough to put food on the table. There's no infrastructure for the BOP pros to earn a living at sport.

---

---

---

Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

Time cut-offs are not particularly useful because of the variability in race sites and weather and other factors that affect performance times. The logistics and challenges that come with have a large pro-field are not new and make the race tactical and interesting in my view and all part of the fun.

---

Michael Hay - helped on the journey by the great folks at ZiZU Optics, (for the custom fit), and Bialkowlski's TRYSPORT

As M40 on the start list, I am honored to make your cut off!

The reality is that as a new pro, there are hardly any races to race other pros that are not Ironman races. As Matt mentioned above, there are 8 pro 70.3 races in the US this year, with the first 4 (Oceanside, St. George, Chattanooga, Boulder) being part of the Pro Series. Capping these races at 40 men where of course, the top guys get priority, would leave quite a few phenomenal athletes off the start list with no races to choose from.

In my opinion, I think IM adding a small prize purse (say $15-20k) to other 70.3s such as 70.3 Texas would allow developing pros opportunities to race without blowing up the field size. I would not be against IM having requirements to enter some of its main events such as Oceanside, but there need to be alternatives.

---

Todd Suttor

Working Triathlete Elite Development Team
Professional Triathlete
Instagram

Agree. The only real argument for capping the size of at least the men's pro field is how the BOP dynamics may affect the FOP women's field. But even then it would be difficult to limit it in a fair way. Lets say you just cut out #41-80. You've got some guys in there who will be doing their first pro race in there and who could very well be near the front of the race. You've got guys coming back from injury and people who have made big improvements since their previous results. There simply aren't enough lower tier races for there to be a "challenger" field yet.

There will ALWAYS be a back of the pack. Depending on the qualification standards, it could be someone like me who currently fights for top 10 or top 5 at domestic races, or it could be someone like Matt Sharpe who consistently podiums. Having large fields isn't harming anyone (except for maybe the women's field which is indeed a problem). And also, Ironman still makes plenty of money off the pros who will never earn a cent. We pay $1250 in registration fees. Cheaper than AGers for sure if we're racing fairly often, but that's far from free entry.

---

Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

Interesting thoughts on this thread! 12 years ago, I was living one end of this (young developing female pro, new to the field, late 20's, relatively new to triathlon with untapped potential), and now I'm on the other side (just "turned in" my pro card and renewed as an age grouper this season, pushing 40, last few years spent pretty mired in injury in the BOP of the pro field). Honestly, I came up at a great time, because the points system and "weighted" races created exactly what was mentioned-a system where the higher points/higher prize money fields attracted the top pros, leaving lower points/lower prize money races for the more developing pros to have a chance to race closer to the front. There were drawbacks-I raced myself into the ground points chasing-but, having at least half a dozen lower-level races within driving distance gave me tons of opportunity for race experience. Even if I didn't win money, the travel costs were low. I feel for the newer pros these days, because the NA race opportunities are few, scattered, and stacked.

On the flip side was the decision to race AG this year. Honestly, busting myself to be a BOP pro just wasn't fun anymore-my body decidedly cannot handle what it once did. A dozen years ago, fully healthy with the potential to improve and the race infrastructure to support it, I was all about taking my licks in the pro field. Now, the thought of being able to race when/where is convenient to me while hopefully being able to be competitive in the 40-44 AG while still working with, not against, my body lights my fire more. I had an awesome run as a pro and would encourage those on the edge to take the opportunities for the experience at some point, but there's nothing wrong with not doing so, either-I know what it's like to toe the line, and I fully support either decision. There was an element of feeling like I didn't belong in the pro field still over the past couple of years, and maybe I'll have moments this year of feeling like maybe I should still be there, but I'm fine with that. Ultimately, I know my reasons, and that's what matters.

Anyways. Oceanside should make for some great tracking/watching, and hopefully all will be safe and fair in the fields!

Totally but that doesn't make them any less of a pro imo. Oceanside only gives prize money to the top-8. Are we saying 9th isn't a "real" pro? Tons of good athletes will be left out of the money at Oceanside. We should be trying to figure out how to get more triathletes paid/able to train full-time rather than saying making money is what makes a pro athlete. I think the T100 (+ end of year bonuses) & IM Pro Series are steps in the right direction. I mean, IM is going to pay $5k to athletes ranked 11-50. Some of those people won't make a cent at the Pro Series races they compete in. Someone in that 41-80 range will probably work their way into the money because they'll take advantage of the opportunity in front of them.

I think something lost in here is that in the US, the pro standard does move year to year to account for the # of athletes USAT expects to make the jump. The score rating was 104-something in 2020. Last year it was 106.2. New standards haven't been published for this year but I would expect it to get a little more difficult. There are other ways to turn pro but it's very difficult to hit those standards without scoring high enough. The top-5 @ AG Nats (one way to auto qualify for pro license), for example, are always going to be above that. Elite licenses aren't just being handed out without athletes putting in the work & earning their way on those start lists. It doesn't affect most people with a sharp (negative) opinion on it. There isn't some sort of broken system. Pros in the US are actually getting better and better year to year. If you're a top AGer that scored 105 a couple times last year, your points # to turn pro will be higher this year. It will be harder for you to turn pro.

the question is did ironman learn from last year and have a 5 min bigger gap between the pro males and females and have a rule if a male gets passed they have to drop back 30 meter and can not re overtake.

Doesn't look like it according to the athletes guide. 6:40am Pro start and 6:46 PC start which probably means a 6:43 pro women's start. Not nearly enough time.

---

Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

This is one of the biggest travesties in triathlon. that race is stacked every year and should pay10 deep.

8 deep, WTF Ironman? W.....T.......F?

---

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Love this response - and perspective. Certainly one that I shared as well. I am 56 now but was able to qualify for a "pro card" in my younger days. I loved measuring myself against the best, racing head to head and hanging on for dear life when I could. I certainly did mind being filler for the pro field and I am so grateful for the opportunity. As far as getting in the way of the womens field - it was always something I was very mindful of, and I did my best to stay out of the way and not hinder/help - other than to encourage them with positive comments. Since switching back to AG racing (which is where I started), my goals are to podium at as many World Championships as I can afford to race and to keep doing that as long as my body is willing. So far so good.

---

Michael Hay - helped on the journey by the great folks at ZiZU Optics, (for the custom fit), and Bialkowlski's TRYSPORT

Same thing with Boulder. They know people will show up anyways so why put more money down. I'm skipping this year for a number of reasons but yeah $50k is absurd for that field.

---

Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

I think this part is a severely understated problem. It was a huge problem last year in Oceanside and there are now more male pros than before. Unless IM makes the gap bigger to the women at the start or institutes a drop back rule then the whole race is going to be very affected by the huge mens field. It most definitely was last year with Jewitt getting a ride through the mens field as this was by far her best race of the year and sort of an outlier. I understand that lower tier pros need a chance to showcase their stuff but why is it at the detriment of the top women in the race. They are the ones paying the price because IM doesn't want to change their times to start. I only see this as becoming more of a problem at each race for the Pro series because more people are jumping up to pro status to try their luck at it.

 
I think this part is a severely understated problem. It was a huge problem last year in Oceanside

Was it really, or we made it seem like a problem because Paula Findlay was complaining after Tamara Jewett beat her? The guy that Findlay was grilling seemed to be hanging out at the back of the pack, and not at the front helping any of the other girls.

Having said that, seems like an easy fix to me, do not allow pro men to legally draft with pro women.

Well I think if you look at the year Tamara had and even the start of this year you can see she struggles a lot on the bike. This was the only race with this type of men’s field and race dynamics and she rode her best race of the year by far. Maybe Paula was mad she lost but I think the results speak for themselves that it was a huge issue. It was brought up in the pro meeting before the race last year but IM refused to change the start times. Maybe this year will be the catalyst for some change with a men’s field this size.

 
The results don't speak for itself, Tamara could have simply have a good race.

Can you point out from the race footage a single instance where Tamara was legally drafting off a male rider and not other female pros? Happy to stand corrected with some evidence and not just suspicion and speculation.

I do get that they caught a few of the weaker pros, but so did Findlay and everyone else.

Perhaps the only thing we will agree is that it is better for the race if they don't let the girls works with the guys and/or provide a bigger gap between start times for m and f pro.

You know as well as I that there is no race footage of parts of the race that far back. She has never in her career had a bike performance like that so to say it was just "a good day" doesn't really track with her results. From what I was told it was more of the slotting rules were not enforced during the race. There were packs of 20-30 men all in legal pace lines that would take a tremendous effort to pass legally. The officials were not giving penalties to women for jumping into these packs. Maybe all the women were doing it and they should have all been penalized but this bike was such an outlier for Jewitt that it sticks out more. When has Tamara been even remotely close to Paula on the bike other than Oceanside?

And yes I think we can both agree that the start times need to change to give more of a buffer.

You know as well as I that there is no race footage of parts of the race that far back.


I do?

Analyze the results and timelines instead of simply throwing suspicious and speculation without any evidence. They only caught about 6-7 pros?. There was only one guy that stayed with them (the guy Findlay grilled and he even responded in the thread here himself)

You keep taking about Tamara's race as a "one off" as the base of your "argument"...have you actually seen her results? 2nd in la Quinta, 2nd in Augusta (within a minute of Findlay, 3 minutes slower than her on the bike), 1st in Michigan, 11th at Worlds. Yes DNF in Miami.

I think if you are going to accuse any athlete of drafting or drafting off men as an excuse for a good race, it is only fair that you substantiate with a bit more evidence.

We are not talking about overall results. We are talking about the bike. Tamara is a fantastic runner so she makes up for a lot in the end results.


Looking at the results from the PTO races where there is no mens field and a 20 meter draft zone shows who the stronger bikers are. Also the PTO races are shorter bikes so she should be closer not farther away.

Tamara results on bike:
US Open 2022: 22/24 2:10:10
US Open 2023: 19/25 2:04:46
European Open 2023: 16/24 2:09:22

Paula results on bike:
US Open 2022: 4/24 2:01:17
US Open 2023: 3/25 1:56:26
European Open 2023: 2/24 2:05:48

I am not accusing her of drafting at all races. I am just saying that based on her results from her career it is a pretty large outlier that she was only 80 seconds behind Paula in Oceanside. In reality her bike was only 40-50 seconds behind Paula because she served a 30 second blocking penalty. Show me a race where she was within a minute to Findlay on the bike. This is the only race that has this large of a mens field so I am just saying there could be a connection.

Paula also ran almost 1:28 on a fast course with good weather. That might be evidence to support her not having the best bike legs. I don't think Oceanside was Jewett's best bike of the year. She didn't ride much faster @ 70.3 Worlds on a faster course with similarly good weather. She also broke 73:00 at Oceanside.

I'm going to keep defending whatever pro wants to line up but I do think a conversation about race dynamics is reasonable. I know the timeframes are tight but just have a slightly bigger gap between the men & women. At a race like Oceanside, with good weather, you're not worried about AGers being in bad weather for longer. Put a 10min gap between the pro races & make it clear during briefing that there's a lap out rule similar to T100 Miami if you get caught on the bike. Even with a bigger gap, some people will just have bad races and blow up on the bike. It's unavoidable. & some people are just really good swimmers or runners. We just see weak swimmers get exposed a bit with the close start. Even some podium threat types have had to move through the fast female swimmers early in the bike. What happens now if you have male pros who bike roughly around the top female bikers but are great runners. They're still MPros. Their swim/bike/run breakdowns just look different. Midpack or back of the pack MPros who finish next to each other with 1:15/1:25 runs are at the same level but only one of them has a chance to get caught up in the women's race. People would be mad at the slower runners if the legs were ordered differently.

You kind of were, but you know are mixing things a bit.

You are proving that the 20 m draft zone does (and I agree) help the stronger riders and makes it harder for the likes of Jewett to stay in the wheels of the stronger riders.

In your cherry picking, you failed to acknowledge that Oceanside was also the hilliest of the courses we both discussed (PF 2:23, TJ 2:24). I suspect that Tamara being a lighter athlete, might have done better with a bit of elevation gain than on flat course.

We are talking past each other at this point. Just want to close it by stating that, based on race footage I saw, TJ win was legit despite what PF said in one of her videos. I do agree that they could space them 10 minutes apart specially this year with 80 guys on the road and also not allow them to legally draft between guys and girls.

Long thread so I didn’t get to read all yet but I hope our boy Lionel Sanders wins this one. It will be his defining moment. This race will show us either he’s a different animal or same old himself. Of course, that’s under the assumptions everything goes well. No crash, penalty, upset stomach, cramps…etc. Anyway, he’s the only person that I’m rooting for. Hard work is done, he’s been patient so it’s time for him to unleash the beast.

.
.
I fear you may need a grief councelor before the year is over.

Your post had me all smiling with sympathy (for both of you) because if Lionel has been doing what he says he has been doing, he's not likely to be in top biking and running shape right now (and not necessarily swimming shape either, due to the fatigue).

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Have to hand it to you, you remain the most hardcore Lionel fan in this forum. It seems as if the Lionel thread keeps winding down, but your energy remains circa 2019 fans levels.

I think the swim is still a liability, but he definitely has a chance. With all the strongest guys such as Bergere focused on Paris, the race might not be as fast paced as last year, so the front of the race might remain within striking distance.

If you're trolling this is 10/10. In a thread discussing the intricacies and issues of back-half pro racing, it's a nice change to happily root for a faltering yet lovable youtube champ.

Every race Lionel does I'm thinking this is the one, only to be disappointed. But really, hear me out. This is the one.

Can anybody verify this (tweet saying pros are being rejected from IM Pro Series races but are applying within the deadlines)? To my knowledge, IM has not communicated field caps & they have not outlined a process for accepting athletes (are they just taking whoever signs up or a descending list by world ranking -- it seems like the 1st one if they're telling people fields are full). This would throw a wrinkle into some of this discourse.

Yes, this is correct. I have heard that they only have 120 race ranger units so they stop accepting athletes when they hit that number. IM also has the pro series race registration closing 5-6 weeks prior to race day where it is usually 3 weeks prior. None of this has been disclosed by IM to the pros, deadlines quietly shifted and races are capped with no communication.

I don't see this being much of and issue for races other than Oceanside and Texas since the rest of the schedule allows athletes to pick and choose a bit more. Seems most pro series contenders will choose Placid/Hamburg + WC to hit their 3 140.6s and 70.3 WC in December.

---

Todd Suttor

Working Triathlete Elite Development Team
Professional Triathlete
Instagram

Interesting. They should just communicate it then. The tweet makes it sound worse than it is. So 120 on the IM Texas start list with a small # being left out. I still don't love it -- especially the lack of communication. Would think it would make more sense to put this info out there & use some sort of descending order list & try to fill a wait list a couple weeks before the race.

https://stats.protriathletes.org/...ifornia/2023/results
At last year's pro brief they/we managed to get them to give the WPros an extra minute's gap (2 > 3).
Matthews Findlay Sodaro and Jewett (with a much improved swim after going 'proper pro' from Dec 2022) left T1 together, with some of the BP men. Ben S stuck with that group on the ride for 80km, Findlay leading and Matthews on 'not a comeback' restrained ride, Ben S in wheel 3 (NB not "back of pack" - that would've been the place to be), and Sodaro and Jewett hanging on, all entirely legally ie more than 10m between.
Must be remembered that (a) Jewett was weak on the bike in 22 (especially when any corners involved) and (b) she had never ridden in a 'train' so her understanding of overtaking and stuff low.
Ben said on here he too, as a debut pro, had never been in that situation (or how it affected the WPro race dynamic) and subsequently realised that he should have either gone back or forward.
This happy bunch of sisters (and cuckoo brother) caught Lawrence by Marine Camp: and so they were 6.
Mark Matthews has said she (Kat) didn't think the male presence had had any significant affect (he was behind her for 10s of km). Findlay has said she didn't ride well.
The 'mixed' pack stayed that way till Matthews decided she was confident she could make it and pushed the last 30 minutes (with Findlay and Lawrence in tow), distancing Ben S, Sodaro and Jewett (latter also then serving a 30 sec 'blocking' penalty before T2). Jewett easily ran past first Matthews then Sodaro ftw and an amazing 73 dead. Ben S ran 1:21 btw for a 4:19 (weak swim, weak bike, weak run).

"we can both agree that the start times need to change to give more of a buffer." This
"easy fix to me, do not allow pro men to legally draft with pro women" and this.

On Jewett's bicycling strength in 2023 and now, and helping @dcpinsonn out.
At Oceanside she lost about 35 seconds riding in that last 20km to the front group, once the elastic broke. Comparatively, a great ride. Seemed to herald a new force, but we now realise it was an outlier, as said.
At Ibiza 3+ minutes down on Findlay (up and down dual carriageway x 7, 80km)
At Milwaukee 8 minutes down on Findlay and 5 on Matthews (80km).
At Lahti 11 minutes down on Findlay and Matthews (90km).
And at Miami this month she exited T1 with Findlay and Matthews (after a good swim) but went backwards, fast. Sad she DNF'd and assume it wasn't just the bike handling.

I think the lack of other races for lower level pros has probably caused this - many new pros are panicking about racing anywhere and getting on startlines early - then people who have been used to the old system of...just sign up before the 3 week deadline are being caught off guard. The other issue will be - how many no shows will there be in oceanside? Because lots of pros have done that for years - two start lists or just in case I get the want to go race I've got the option. These things were rarely an issue before.

---

DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

Replying in general to the idea of the race being "sold out". Ironman should not run its business waiting for pros to decide if they want to fit their race into the schedule as late as possible.

They announced the pro race long enough ago for athletes to be able to plan what races to go to. They put more money into it to make it a priority for athletes to be rewarded.

If athletes are indecisively trying to guess which race lines up with their fitness or competition best, they might miss out if they don't make a commitment. What is certain is that the athletes who made a commitment to Ironman first, it sounds like they are getting in.

That's very democratic of them and IM should be applauded if they tell someone higher ranked they waited too long and lost their chance.

Here's the real question though. How many men and how many women? Are the females given equal slots? Is Kat Matthews sitting out because some random male pro is in? Is Sam Long missing out because an equal amount of slots were assigned to women? Either way... scarcity never leaves people feeling satisfied.

Ironman is 100% in the wrong here in regards to race registration deadlines. Like they always do, they posted the schedule, including registration deadlines, with some initial races and then have been added the later season ones. They have changed the registration "deadlines" at least twice now with absolutely no heads up to the athletes. Sometimes I'll check a race I'm thinking about, put an event in my calendar to "register for 70.3 XX", and then see how the next month or so goes. This is how it's always been done. Significantly changing the deadlines without notice is simply not transparent and a problem.

---

Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

I agree this is the big issue. They note that everything on the schedule is "Subject to Change" which IM will hide behind, but the lack of information disclosed and closing races without notice is an issue. I almost missed St. George registration, thought I had 3 more weeks to register and realized it closed early with a couple days to spare.

Ben, how do you feel about the athletes who seem to register for every race and then pull out last minute after the start list is released? You have been racing pro longer and have seen this much more, so do you think IM should do more to prevent this from happening now that pro races are "selling out"?

---

Todd Suttor

Working Triathlete Elite Development Team
Professional Triathlete
Instagram

On principal, I don't have any problem with the register for everything and only race what you want move, as it's never had any consequences until now. Interestingly, a few years ago right when we got back into racing after covid, ironman made the registration deadlines very close to the races. Like within 2 weeks. However, they also would send follow-up emails asking to confirm whether or not you were actually racing. That way they're not wasting resources and would have a better idea of who is actually going to be there. I feel like that system made sense as well.

---

Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

Lagerstrom is out so that’s one more race ranger unit up for grabs.

I think if your going to have an "A" series like this for IM, you have to basically have better rules/regulations. You can't change them on the fly and not communicate that with athletes. WT has procedures for withdrawing and has penalties for "late withdraws" (unless illness/course fam crash, etc) that IM could sorta easily follow. The need for better procedures and/or not adjusting on the fly will only increase if this series continues to grow in importance.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

So what if they went PTO style. Invited higher ranked pros first, then opened it up aka “wildcard”

80 men is just way too many imo. It’s going to be a shit show between fast women and slow men even in the water. The course is so narrow in parts with tight turns it just makes no sense.

It's also how ITU does their start list, higher ranked athletes (assuming they nominate to race early enough when the start list is produced and not after that point) get priority over lesser ranked athletes even if both "register" for the race at the same time.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I really like how it's the polar opposite of the PTO. You're a pro and want to race? Line up. The racing will be more dynamic and less sterile, and honestly the women's field (and men's Pro field) have always had to contend with other athletes and AG'ers on the course. It's part of the draw to Ironman when you can race at the same time as the Pro's.

I don't care which way IM does the registration, capped at a number or just in before the deadline, but at least communicate it to people before making a change. Didn't realize that quick registration was one of the metrics for pro series points.

What's going to happen if one of the very top athletes doesn't register quick enough? Are they actually going to tell Lionel or Skipper they can't race because they don't have enough equipment?

IM has always been able to hid behind their monopoly and brand name in the long course tri market in the US.

I'd have no issue with that IF there were more races that had pro fields. If 70.3 Texas had a field with a smaller purse on the same weekend, by all means keep the pro series races to a certain ranking or something. But there pretty much isnt a non pro series pro race in North America during the first half of the year.

---

Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

80 men is just way too many imo. It’s going to be a shit show between fast women and slow men even in the water. The course is so narrow in parts with tight turns it just makes no sense.//

Just a point of interest and history, Kona used to have upwards of 120/150 men pros racing. So 80 is not really that big of deal, and as long as they drop back like last year if any women catch them on the bike, then I dont see a huge problem. I watched last year and it was basically one guy that got in with the lead group, and he went to the back and let them have their race for most of it. Kind of like what PTO does, get lapped and you sit in your spot at the back..


And the swim will be fine and not a shit show as you describe. The lead women will be spread out as any BOP swimming men will be, so an easy pass. It wont be many men who get passed, and the real challenge will be for them to hammer out of T1 and get clear of those ladies...

Just a note that this included a 5 min penalty...

---

DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

Good point: forgot that: so only 6 minutes. But guess it points back to Jewett's inexperience in riding with (behind) others. Maybe race ranger will help her."it was basically one guy that got in with the lead group, and he went to the back" - this absolutely was not what happened. Ben S (new USAT pro and averaged 4:09 for his six 70.3s in 2023) got stuck (and stayed) between Matthews and Sodaro for 40km, and then for 30km between the rear one of three (Findlay/Lawrence/Matthews) and Jewett/Sodaro.
I agree the swim will be fine because the women will just swim past, led by Knibb. I can see her riding as fast as many of the BoP men as well: they can draft her (legally).

Keeping an eye open (and wishing the best for) the little Mexican, Thomas Rodriguez Hernandez

Saw him running 2h38m in IMMX - impressive in those conditions.

Spoken like a man. There’s a reason the women’s only Kona race was so popular with the women pros. No other sport has this.

Male pros don’t until they get to the run. Or on looped courses. And guess what. This FOP male pros hate it. It’s the same reason AG starts are gone except WC races. It’s an awful experience

---

http://www.TriScottsdale.org

I was specifically talking about the Oceanside course. On a course like Kona it’s not as bad. Imagine 80 pro men on the IMAZ course and 3 loops

---

http://www.TriScottsdale.org

Well on a 3 loop course kind of irrelevant how many pros, as you now have to pass the 1000's of age groupers too. But as you say, different courses have different dynamics. If they put into place some rule for the passed men pros at some point on the bike, it should be fine. Like you get your one shot to go ahead if passed in the swim, but if a female biker passes you, back of the group you go, and stay there until T2...

This.

They slashed a lot of pro 70.3/140.6 races this year. Races that come to mind immediately are Oregon, Gulf Coast, Maryland, Michigan, Florida. Would be curious to know how much money IM is putting up this year compared to last year. Add in a few more $15k-$30k races ($50k/75k 140.6s) that won't attract the bigger names & then communicate that IM Pro Series races have a cap. I would do it like World Triathlon, with the addition of the extra races for developing pros. Have it so anybody can sign up for the Pro Series races that has their pro license. When registration closes, publish a descending order list like World Triathlon does. It'll roll pretty far down at most races. Then have a system to take people off of a wait list. Have people confirm when registration closes or 2-3 weeks before the race. Then go down the list & give the next highest ranked a chance to accept.

Also, stop trashing on the kid (i.e. name calling -- seriously?) that rode in the pack at Oceanside last year. It was their 1st pro race. They beat 10 MPros & another 7 who DNFd. Their time would've had them 5th overall amateur at probably the most competitive AG 70.3 on the North American calendar. Plus their USAT score would've been around 111 -- way over the pro cutoff. Top-end women are really good, and are getting better. Jewett would've been 27th in the men's race. 29th went on to get to World Champs slot a month later. You see it in endurance sports like marathoning/ultra marathoning, where the top women might've been in the money or even beaten people in the invited men's field. It happens. Women marathoners have sub-2:15 PBs now. There are a handful of men with slower PBs than the top woman in the elite field at Boston & that woman "only" has a 2:17. Increase the time in between races. Have a drop back rule. But one more wheel in the pack didn't drastically change that race imo when someone runs 72:59. Oceanside usually favors strong runners.

The fact that Ironman creates a fantastic series with a great schedule, great prizes, and a broadcast to showcase pros and their sponsors and some want to complain about not being able to signup right until the deadline suggests the problem is not with the organization but with the mindset of the pros who want to pick and choose and have it all their way. This is pretty clear, because on the other hand we see the PTO create a great series, with amazing compensation, and many of the pros they enlist still get picky choosey and don't show up.

How's this for you pros who think the tour or series is important: SIGN UP and SHOW UP.

This reproving obviously doesn't apply to everyone as you've got Alistair towing the line and blowing up even though he's not fully fit. He showed up regardless. You've got Sam Long getting scorned by some for being sub par and we have him showing up and racing his heart out and multiple races.

You have two pro series that created two avenues for success, but because of indecision, strategy, or less than ideal training readiness some athletes aren't showing up.

If you want to have the perfect build and target minimal races to have amazing success at one or two races, that's a great strategy. I fully endorse it. Might even be the winning one for Kona/Nice. But don't complain that you didn't get to have it all while you were deciding what to do and otherwise were making a commitment.

Ironman's deadline to sign-up does not mean you are guaranteed a spot until then. It should mean if you don't tell them by then you certainly aren't getting a spot. There's no reason to expect that if the entire WTCS just showed up 1 day before the deadline Ironman has to accept them all because they didn't inform everyone that scarcity exists in the real world. And it's ironic that this scarcity is the direct result of the very thing THE PROS HAVE BEEN ASKING FOR -- Race Ranger. How about this, every pro that wants to race, pony up $2000 a year and give it to Race Ranger as a membership to ensure you have a device at every event. Ironman should just sub contract out that aspect of the race to RR and say if you want to race pro you need to pay an annual registration fee to Race Ranger.

Again, you've got two organizations that have offered athletes a chance to race as a pro, and the pros aren't getting it and playing out the season as if nothing has changed and strategizing how to maximize their benefit. I suppose a basketball or football player should take the same approach and start skipping the big games. No. The T100 pros have been given a pro calendar. They should show up and race just about everyone and support the organization that is betting on them. Not try to maximize their gain for 2-3 races. IM has given athletes on multiple continents a chance to do their own pro series in a way that fits for them. Plan out your calendar and sign up to race them.

Yes, you might get to a race and need to pull out if there's an issue. But show up and give it your best shot.

If the T100 falls apart, and the Ironman decides to back away from this pro series thing it won't be for lack of trying on their end. The pros ought to do their best to make sure the tour/series is as successful and hyped as possible. Some are for sure. Others are still just seeing things that aren't perfectly aligned for them and their circumstances and pointing out how it could be done better to benefit them. Ya, nice. I'm sure the PTO and Ironman could point out 100 things that the pros could do better to benefit their own series. Work with what you got. Not what you wish you had.

I think it was going to be obvious they would slash some C level events to pool the money to go all in on this IM Pro Series. The one push back I'll give:

WT's pathway is built on an developmental pathway. Outside of IM's WC fields, there is no "pathway". It's truly if 1st year pro wants to sign up and race the A event, he can. Even if he's no where close to being ready for that. That never happens in ITU. This isn't an issue only this year because races were slashed, this was a major point last year, but yes it'll only get worse now, if pro races are cut. So imo it then takes strong support around said "no name pro" to say "your not ready", not "sure go for it because you can".

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If the issue is that they only have 120 race rangers, and so would otherwise be able to accommodate, then isn't the solution just to go and buy another 30 race rangers?

Yes, I get that having that many athletes on the course could prove difficult, but some of these issues are solvable. If there's conflict between men and women's races, especially in a 70.3 - just give more space between and delay the age groupers by a few mins. This would prove harder for a full IM, but they're not insurmountable issues.

Ha, I assume the issue is always $$$

$$$ to pay for the 30 or more race rangers

$$$$ for the permit that even just a "few minutes later" can affect whether the race is permitted or not.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

There's a lot in here but what's lacking is that IM has some obligation to communicate with its athletes. This is the first year where races are getting capped. Instead of throwing it back at the athlete, how about asking IM to communicate these changes?

There's no athlete union in the sport. Maybe athletes would want to pool together more resources to invest in race ranger to expand fields, idk.

Brooks -- yeah I was trying to get out that I'm not sure if they had to eliminate all of the development races to pay for the Pro Series. Would love to see a breakdown of prize money the last few years to this year. They emailed about this today, saying they've put up nearly $6 million in prize money this year. Even if they're putting in more, the PTO forced their hands & they could be doing a little more. Not sure how much patting on the back we should be doing when they could've done this at any time. Pros pay entry fees too so that also helps offset costs. It's $1250 for the year. 900+ pro men & 400+ pro women per PTO. 1000 memberships would be $1.25 million.

Thorsten's take ('seedings'):
https://www.trirating.com/...-april-6th-seedings/
Long and Knibb for home wins, though Knibb might overtake Long in the water (if gap is only 2 minutes)!
I assume Lange is doing this as one of his 2 70.3s to validate his IMWC AQ.

I assume Lange is doing this as one of his 2 70.3s to validate his IMWC AQ. //

I thought he was doing the ironman series, is that not right? If so, he will be doing 2 other Ironmans other than Kona, so really doesnt need half's to validate...


But perhaps he is forging the series and the $200+k prize money, but he would be one of the favorites if he went after it...

Isn't that what PTO is supposed to be?

---

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Unions aren't run by billionaires.

Lange is doing the IM Pro Series + Roth. He needs to knock out a pair of 70.3s. He's doing Texas so this race makes a ton of sense for him.

Yes, in theory that's kind of what it's supposed to be. They do a good job of promoting top athletes and trying to raise the profile of the sport. The issue is that PTO is less of a union and more of a competitor. You can join the PTO for free, and there's no 'line in the sand' for what you can/can't do (in terms of races).

A true union would hold it's athletes to account and threaten to (or actually) walkout on one of the races. Ironman losing all PTO athletes for their first US Pro Series race would surely get them to fix their sloppy rules in a hurry.

Don't get me wrong, it's good to have competition, and choice of events helps reduce the monopoly that Ironman has and the things they can do because of that. But it's not a union in the way we'd define it today.

After the 1st few years, the PTO was never going to be the representation for the pro athlete. It was going full head of steam to an race production/series that it now is doing. And I guess it also "supports" all LC pro's by doing it's LC ranking + prize bonuses, but it was never really going to become an union that has teeth. Obviously it would help, but I still think the issue is IM sorta behaves as 100 independent races (or how many races there are these days, and probaly 40% are now AG only?) that gives 1-2 people the common goal of reaching it's WC events. That's about all IM is doing, all they have done is added more money to specific events. But there is basically zero structure to it, it truly is an "all comers" event. Unlike every other race organization (I guess there is now 3- IM / PTO / ITU errr WT), IM basically has very little actual structure to it's events. It sorta self seeds it's own events by giving out A-B-C level prize purses but again the whole issue is that a 1st year pro or a "back of pack" pro that has no real business being in "A" events is totally allowed to do it. But again, it really is of no interest in IM's pov to create checks and balances other than "are you a pro"....cool your eligible to race any event outside of the WC that is qualification only. Like they really don't care all that much that pro's who shouldn't race their events are racing under the pro designation and then on the down low sorta "mucking" up the race for other pros'. It's pretty much a shrug of the shoulders, hands off approach. But again in terms of that aspect, they are the only series/league/organization that basically behaves in that manner. T100 has a pecking order, and ITU def has a pecking order that takes basically years to climb the ladder; but a ladder that is there to make sure the athletes who are racing the top series- should/deserve to be there.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

You know if only someone had presented something to IM years, over 10 years ago now, where they structured their races sort of like the ITU does, conti, wc, wts...sigh...so much development potential, so much potential for athletes to build a brand, for IM to build excitement around lower tier athletes getting their shot at a bigger tier race. alas another good idea that went into the circular file.

Even when they had p1500 p2500 (or whatever the numbers were) they were just designations that let everyone know roughly how much and how deep the money went, not a development pathway.

---

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

I can understand why IM doesn't want to get into the weeds with it's races and create an specific start list procedure, but I think if IM continues to drop lower funded events in favor of basically a series where all the money is going, this problem of "lower pros" affecting WPRO races will only increase. They imo are sorta stuck in the middle of wanting to act like a federation when they need to and it benefits them and then wanting to play ball with others when it benefits them too. To their credit, they are the best out there so they really don't need to do anything different, and this is pretty much "inside baseball" details issue, that is likely very far down on their list of priorities.

(ETA And I'm not saying this badly of IM, they don't want to get into the weeds when it's working like it is now).

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

IM Pro Series 'Story':
https://proseries.ironman.com/...s-ironman-pro-series
"IRONMAN history is steeped in iconic moments delivered by iconic athletes. Races defined by champions.
"The IRONMAN Pro Series ushers in a new era of IRONMAN racing; athletes don’t have to be first, but they have to be fast and Every Second Matters.
"As the opening race of the inaugural IRONMAN Pro Series approaches, the biggest question on everyone’s lips is who will be crowned the first-ever IRONMAN Pro Series champions and walk away with a USD $200,000 end-of-series bonus?"

Credit to IM for making an easy fix -- their pro calendar now highlights races in green (pro registration open), yellow (nearing capacity, may close prior to date), red (full).

Is race ranger the limiter for pro field capacity? I didn’t even know they limited fields outside of WC races.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

That's what's been suggested (80 M + 40W), and I'm not surprised. The PTO will want to hold 50 sets for Singapore 6 days later: I don't know whether it's a rental or ownership model. Suspect demand has 'literally' outstripped supply: IM didn't buy/announce that it'd use them in its Pro Series races till quite late on, and have been overwhelmed by all the US 'Pros' entering Oceanside.
Knibb will drag them round - let's see how many she chicks - might be more interesting competition than the women well back in her wake.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C5JGx6BLf4W/

Yeah I don't have a source but that's what has been floated. It also seems to be 120 total & that IM doesn't have a problem trying to get to an equal # of male/female pros. I know there are more male pros but if all the men sign up for a race could we have 110 men & 10 women. Seems like they still need to iron out some details but maybe they don't think it'll be a real problem outside of the early season races

Went for a swim in Redondo Beach yesterday. Holy shit that water was cold. Hope that it warms up some by next weekend.

---

Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Knibb and Geens ftw. Will Sanders beat Long out of the water? What fun they'll both have trying to pass long trains of men without cutting in and physically avoiding riders pulling out to pass as they attempt to pass (especially on the earlier narrow and bit windy stretches).
Sharpe, Dubrick, Quenet, Angert, Sperl FP swim, with Geens close.
Knibb racing completely on her own, except of course for all the 'Pro' men ahead and behind her at T1 and on the bike course, and any drop back and retakes for the chicked reaction.
Findlay and Langridge should have a gap on EPB and Jewett out of T1 and never be seen again, till on the run.
Jewett will mega-struggle with all the complications of congestion on the bike: EPB has the experience to cope and thrive.
Race ranger: Red flashing light; 5 secs; start the watch, go up and check whether a pass is being attempted; if not: card.
They have arranged for a second shelter at each penalty tent and extra watches.
https://podcasts.apple.com/...ri-news/id1559781865 @ 15:30 they get to Oceanside (after Leiven et al)

Our preview article is up. https://www.slowtwitch.com/..._Our_Picks_8923.html

---

----------------------------------
Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

Nice write up, it did make me have to look it up to see if Ari Klau was on the start list, and he is not. His 17 hour training weekend parter Simon Shi is (that was a good video and is plugged in the write up). Obviously Klau is still in "development" mode and just got back from his Aussie swim adventure, what within the last month or so, so he's likely not in good racing shape at this moment. **NO i was not thinking he would factor, more just wondered who from the US *isn't* racing**

I would assume all the IM Pro Series races will be near capacity with the prize purse structure now (again didn't realize there was a capacity outside of WC events, but it sounds like it's a race ranger limitation likely this year).

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Klau said from the beginning of the year he wasn’t doing Oceanside. Debut will be St. George.

---

Let food be thy medicine...

Yeah I think, even with the swim focused block, that it makes sense to skip the race with the ocean swim. Wonder why St. George (accurate lake swim) versus 70.3 Chattanooga ("downhill" river swim). Maybe he'll do both but Chattanooga is an IM Pro Series race too.

So well written, and the North American sentiment in David's picks is quite charming.

♂ Lange
♂ Geens
♂ Laundry

(This ain't the T100, where you can come from way back on the bike).

♀ Findlay
♀ Pallant
♀ Knibb

(It's base training time for Knibb, isn't it? Certainly not 70.3 sharpness time. Hope I'm wrong.)

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

(It's base training time for Knibb, isn't it? Certainly not 70.3 sharpness time. Hope I'm wrong.)//

I highly doubt that, she would have been ready to rock Abu Dhabi a couple weeks ago and had some good speed in her legs. If anything, she will be much faster here as the speed vs endurance will have been and will be her main focus. And she has plenty of past fitness to fall back on for the longer race, plus she should be so far ahead that she probably could shut it down. But if she plans on the Ironman series, then probably will race it to the end just to reduce all the point getters behind her, some tough choices for the few trying to do both series..

Yeah I think she's here for her Worlds slot & that Taylor Knibb in her base build (wherever she's at in training rn) would still be hard to beat at this distance. The Pro Tri News guys did a good job breaking down PTO points on their preview pod today. IM Pro Series races carry the gold label status now so Knibb can score quite well here if she wins by a big margin. In the last 2 years, Knibb has won 5 out of 6 of her 70.3s/PTO races. The 1 other race was her 2nd @ PTO US Open in 2022. She put 4:00 into the field @ 70.3 Worlds last year & won the PTO US Open by 50s. I don't think the firepower is there up front for her to be seriously challenge but you never know. She's going to swim/bike clear of the people. It's going to take an amazing run and/or blow up for someone to catch her.

Knibb has to race a 70.3 to validate her Taupo slot (and that before 30 Jun): this is it (just needs to finish). Participation, at whatever speed she wants, will have no adverse affect on Paris prep (Yokohama is 5 weeks later). If she wishes to validate for Nice (NB with obligatory T100 Ibiza 7 days later) she could 'stroll' one more 70.3, but seems a distraction from 2024's main effort.

Yeah I was thinking along these exact lines. Until the Olympics it’s all about the Olympics. Well, almost. All she has to do in Oceanside is finish. Then again, she has surprised me a number of times already

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Why can’t you come from way back on the bike?

Knibb's not going to chill though until she knows the W is in the bag right? Like she's going to do her obligatory strong S and B and then see what she needs to hold right? She's not going to just ride in the group, check the box finish is she?

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Yeah I would think it would be slightly harder to make a charge on the bike at a T100 race with the slightly longer swim, slightly shorter bike, 20m drafting zone, and slightly shorter run. Slightly more time on the bike in a 70.3 percentage-wise (Oceanside men's winner in 2023 spent 58% of their race time on the bike versus Ditlev on the bike for 54% of his race time in Miami). Plus the 12m draft zone allows you to bike closer together. Oceanside, however, isn't a race track so this can't be a 1:1 argument. It'll be interesting to see how Race Ranger affects things. Some people are probably used to cheating the 12m & others might find they've been too generous in past races. It's clear that Ditlev/Laidlow/Long didn't bring anyone with them to the front of the race in Miami. The 12m drafting zone (+ cooler weather) might change that.

1. Much shorter draft zone
2. Huge PRO field, much of which is in front of you at T1 and you can’t slot in
3. Maybe less great anti draft policing

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Thank you for the detailed answer
Makes sense

So much for the chances of 2 of my favorites long and Sanders

😩

Keep in mind I was 1015th out of 1071 in the T100 Miami fantasy game at the Daily Tri.

I'm not really able to take away the podium chances of someone like Lionel Sanders or Sam Long, haha.

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Lol

I like the humility

1) Geens
2) Laundry
3) Rodriguez

Jackson just did a 1,500 SCM time trial on 17:43 so he is definitely second group material and the dude is an absolute beast on the bike, just not certain he can deliver a 68-69 min half which is what I think it's going to take to win this year.

can we ban you from any prediction thread until you make it into the top 1000 twice in a row.

No mate, because the only way I can rank higher in fantasy tables is to convince you guys to submit predictions even shittier than mine.

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Knibb will be so far ahead after the bike, I doubt anyone in this field will catch her. Knibb might not have the best run but she can run and she is definitely fast as most OD folks are

Lionel's Oceanside VLOG

The Daily Tri Fantasy is open at long last

https://www.dailytri.com/...es/im-oceanside-2024

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Some playful sandbagging from Lionel towards the end of this with his age/workouts/race results. He said he hasn't won an IM since 2017, which is true, but he was 2nd at the St. George WCs in 2022. The 3x3k workout he's doing is during race week at race pace or even slightly faster than what he'll hold in the race. Should be pretty obvious that that pace is intentional versus what he could handle in that kind of a workout. I'm sure he's been doing plenty of running faster than that. He's a favorite no matter what he says.

Really liked walking back through the Jan years with the two of them at Oceanside. That was a lot of fun.

That was a good part of it, would be fun if you can "pause" a race when stuff like that happens.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

1.Knibb
2.Pallant
3.Jewett

1.Geens
2.Long
3.Lange

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

I'd like to believe Sanders will win, and his training vs racing volume suggests he's going to be a monster. But he hasn't shown much ability to lead a race lately among the other competitors here. I think the bike course will be problematic with him being bunched up the pack until the last half of the course and by then Geens will likely be to far ahead to catch on the run. Same goes for Sam.

It's that first 1/3 or so of the bike course that really is going to make the slower swimmers lag while the front rides away with it.

The only other option is to get a bit risky on the bike early on and risk a crash or inadvertent penalty.

So my guess is Sanders will still be down 2 minutes on the lead and he won't close that gap on the bike and he'll likely only shave off a minute at best on the run.

I'd love to be wrong.

1. Long
2. Geens
3. Lange

1. Findlay
2. Knibb
3. EPB

New Justin Riele video:

Trevor Foley is out. As per his instagram:

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Triathlete's preview (by Thorsten):
https://www.triathlete.com/...de-pro-race-preview/
Associated data:
https://www.trirating.com/...-april-6th-seedings/
He goes Knibb-Findlay-Jewett and Long-Geens-Sanders.
I'll go: Knibb-Findlay-EPB (Jewett will leak too much time on the congested bike) and Geens-Long-Laundry.

1. Knibb
2. Langridge
3. Findlay


1. Long
2. Laundry
3. Skipper

Would love to see Lionel win, but I'll say he will come in 7th with lessons learned....

Was surprised that Trevor was still on the start list after the concussion. Glad he's taking care of himself. It's going to be a long season -- there isn't a ton of $$$ at Oceanside, the swim doesn't favor him, & he already has his worlds slot. Get healthy & start the season when you're ready. If he's not ready for Texas (on the start list there), 70.3 Chattanooga might be a good race for him.

Bob aceing it with his Knibb interview (and also see his one with Lange).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUqNZLfnBCk

Think they're sleeping a bit on Geens. They give him less of a chance to win (just 5%) than Sam (30%)/Lionel (20%)/Jackson (15%), & by quite a big margin. Geens wins Indian Wells in 2021 without the drafting penalty, which he said he felt he didn't deserve. Geens is going to swim faster than those guys, is a strong biker, & *should* run faster than all of them too. Feel like they're ignoring the course a bit & how a good swimmer can build a gap. Oceanside is tougher than other courses to really pull time back on the bike. I'm happy to be wrong but Geens is the clear men's favorite in my mind. You at least would have to give him similar odds. Sam or Lionel would have to come out of T2 with a couple minute lead on him. They're both good runners but they'll need a gap.

Well my pick is Geens, and Thorsten reckons #2 (whatever odds quoted), 30 secs down on Long.
Thorsten strictly bases his predictions on data (and underweights older data), and there's just one for Geens - The IW70.3 in late 2021 (and probably the penalty flew under the data cleansing radar). Geens is all in on Paris (but with an eye on Taupo) so, like Knibb (who in her interview with Bob said she'd just done the one draft illegal session (last week)) his bike may be in a position unfamiliar to him with consequences for losses to T2 and ability to run off it. Nevertheless, reasonable to expect him to lay down the best run of the day (MPro). And ftw as he'll be either already ahead or not far behind the slower runners Long, Sanders, Laundry et al. Long will risk under-controlled overbiking again (see last year here) to give himself a buffer.

Are there no other fast swimmers on the start list? Geens weakness in ITU is his swim, I'm sure he'll be a lot faster than your Skippers, Longs and Lionels but I'd be surprised if he's first out of the water.

Dubrick is a fantastic swimmer.

Geens won't be 'doing a Bergere' but he'll be front pack. What @dcpinnson said was "swim faster than those guys": obviously way faster than Long/Sanders and ahead of (but probably joined by) Laundry within a few miles of T2. Geens knows he's the fastest runner (absent West) and so do his riding peers who will need to make efforts accordingly.
Geens' primary race aim (same as Knibb) is qualification/validation for Taupo (3 MPRO / 3WPRO but four effectively since Knibb is validating).
From Knibb's interview it's clear there is no chance on Nice: she cites T100 Ibiza as her first race post Olympics (NB to race Nice she'd have to complete another 70.3 pre 1st Jul: which is not in her Paris focused calendar. Also going Media dark from 1st June btw.

Maybe, there's a lot of pros on that list I've never heard of though, I'd expect a few of them to be fish types.

I'm not sure Geens would make front pack on a typical T100/PTO type start list with Alistair, Royle, Bogen etc

Like Ajax said, they’re not “sleeping on Geens” like it is some sort of panel of experts weighing people’s chances. It’s an algorithm where the only inputs are past long course results, especially recent ones. By definition it will give people like Duffy or anyone coming off the Olympic cycle no chances.

I emphasize this because I see a lot of people here assuming that Thorsten publishes his opinions or something. But all he does is crunch numbers.

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Do they use range ranger for the pro series? I know it is not 20 m, but just to avoid marshalling drama?

Yes they will be using race ranger, that seems to be one of the reasons IM has put in field limits.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

i was a bit surprised at his predictions for run splits. we've seen lionel run 1:08 on that course, and west run 1:07. but he doesn't have anyone breaking 1:10! based on the weather forecasts it seems like it could be fast conditions.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

High surf advisory for Friday and Saturday, saying less experienced swimmers should stay out of water. Lionel…. :(

Isnt the swim entirely in the harbor? I do remember awhile back they did do an out through the surf and then into the harbor for the finish, what's the course for this year?

Think it is the same this year, out into the surf for first roughly half of the swim before turning into the harbour. Based on what is posted on the site.

Race Ranger is not marshalling (in the sense you may wish) draft penalties will still be the call of draft marshals based on what they see (with RR as a cue). Am all for RR but there are pluses and minuses to this, it is simply a deterrent and ‘integrity check’ and as such am sure a few folks will simply ignore it and chance their luck. Post race data may well elucidate those types of folks but that data won’t get them DQ’ed during or after race unless someone lodges a protest against them.
Whether that data gets that individuals ‘card marked’ is a different discussion.

My hope is in future that data is used in real time allowing for a penalty tent say half way round run. Why the tent at half way into run you might ask?…. So the data can be differentiated between say some with 90secs in red from 40+ 1-2sec violations versus someone 90secs in red from 2x 45secs “taking the piss” as we say in english.

---

David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

Oh i fully get that, but as you say it acts as both a detergent but also as an assistance for the marshalls.

Lionel may not be a "fish" in the water but he is far from a "less experienced swimmer"

---

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Oh I agree, but just figure 'rough' conditions are not exactly gonna be in his favour in terms of time lost...

lagerstrom usually swims well here; expect he won't mind the surf.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Eric isn't racing.

still got that injured foot? he needs a good stretch of consistent health!
that's another name missing from the front of the swim and i guess the sanders/long train will be happy about that.

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Knibb
Findlay
Jewett

Geens
Dubrick
Long

Oceanside had been harbor entry for a lot of years, but in recent years it switched to beach entry and then swim from open water into the harbor and exit up a boat ramp to T1. But when it’s high surf (as it was the first year they wanted to go back to the beach entry) they have a contingency to switch to harbor entry and exit.

---

Sharon McN
@IronCharo
#TeamZoot
Clif Bar Pace Team 2003-2018

On the pod it sounded like it was 90%, but not quite there. I think he defered his entry to St George

This is the exact definition of sleeping on someone. 5% chance because they can't figure out how to evaluate a short course star who has 1 prior (very good) 70.3 result. Lost by less than 5min & served a 5min drafting penalty against a similar field.

Geens will be very close to the front pack of the swim, if not in there. He was 3rd out of the water in Indian Wells. That is something you can evaluate. Vincent Luis, one of the best short course swimmer (1st out of the water in Tokyo), put a minute into him in that race. I don't think guys like Dubrick (not a 1:1 but swam 23:01 @ Indian Wells last year, Geens was 23:08 in 2021)/Shi/Riele/Stepinski/etc can get away & come out with that kind of a gap. Dubrick might get off the front by 15-30s. If you're making predictions & assigning percentages you have a lifetime of short course racing to help evaluate the kind of impact Geens can have on this race. I could end up being very wrong but you can't rationally assign Geens 5% & then give Sam 30%, Lionel 20%, and Jackson 15%. That math doesn't math to me. Geens & Long should be pretty even at the top if we were taking bets on this.

& then no sub-70:00 runs seems not it. Oceanside is fast/flat & gets great weather. Geens ran 1:08 @ Indian Wells. That's a slower run course. Sam & Lionel can threaten that barrier. Tomas Rodriguez can threaten that barrier. Patrick Lange can threaten that barrier. Matt Hanson can threaten that barrier.

Referenced your question above. Geens is a middle-ish ITU swimmer. Maybe around bottom 40% at the biggest races. I think that could have you front pack swimming against this field. Doesn't seem to be a ton of firepower on the swim. The better swimmers look like guys in his range. He'll have at least 2:00 on Sam/Lionel. Maybe a minute on Laundry. It'll be interesting to see how this thing plays out. Has Dubrick gotten better on the bike? Will Laundry/Sanders/Long find each other on the bike? Will they pass Geens & when does that pass happen? They need to pass & drop him imo. Sam ran great in Miami. He's run more like 71/72 on accurate courses in the past. Would be interesting if they all exit T2 together.

Well take Sanders: he averaged >1:11 in his 70.3s in 2022 and ~1:12:30 in 2023. Thorsten has the run course running about a minute faster than the 'standard'. Is Sanders running two minutes faster than his average of last year?
What would you predict (based on past form) Sanders will run on Saturday.
Long? Averages about 1:12 in his excellent season last year. I note his run speed at Miami (NB in hot&humid) equates to a 1:09: that'd be impressive here (in 50 degrees).
Lange: has never run sub-1:10.
Hanson: averages 1:12 and dipped under 1:10 once, 22 months ago.
Tomas Rodriguez has been sub 70 just the once, and averages 1:14.
As you say: they "can threaten" the 1:10 "barrier" but the stats predict they won't.
Geens might, but data is thin.
At IW in 2021 Geens ran 61 secs faster than Sanders. Is Geens any faster now than he was in late 2021? (I'll offer a 'no')
Both in Paris and Pontevedra he was more than a minute down (in 10km) on Bergere, who ran 1:10:33 last year here.

I get what you're saying but my response was intended to show that Jelle Geens deserves more than a 5% chance of winning.

If we're going specifically at sub-1:10, I would say that averages don't matter with the way courses + weather varies, and how they aren't accurately measured,. Lionel ran 1:08 @ Oceanside in 2022. So, yes, he *could* run faster than his average on this fast/flat course with good weather. He could run a time he's run there before.

I agree on Sam -- he hasn't been a sub-1:10 guy ever. But he seems to be in better run form this year. That's why I've been consistent in saying he needs to gap Geens coming out of T2. The averages, again, with the others don't make much sense to me. Hanson ran his sub-70 on a hilly course in warm weather (Chattanooga). He's mostly been dropping sub-2:40 IM runs. His average includes places like Finland + St. George, which are not fast run courses. Lange had 2 legitimate shots to break 2:30 last year & doesn't do many 70.3s. Rodriguez ran 1:10:05 @ Oceanside last year. Geens ran 1:08:17 on a harder course.

Idk how TriRating gets to their numbers but they're giving Rodriguez a 1:12:08. Is he going to run 2min slower than what he ran on the same course a year ago? Seems like they're giving some emphasis to overall results instead of course/weather/field. Geens would be their favorite if they didn't have him running 1:10-mid so I'm not sure how someone can't evaluate him for more than a 5% chance to win.

Harbor swim (course updated late yesterday, sea state warning till Sat noon): https://www.ironman.com/im703-oceanside-course

I don't think Thorsten's 'odds' are as useful as his predictive times (and since there's rarely a book, the figures are irrelevant). Idk either, but he gets to the 'numbers' using an athlete's recent performances SBR and weights older ones (?+24 months) less. In addition he keeps track of how each race's SBR times have turned out, year by year, and applies a factor derived from all those years to every competing athlete's prediction. Have a(nother) look at the page for that (though not 'translucent' for me!).
https://www.trirating.com/...-april-6th-seedings/
Bergere didn't run sub 1:10 last year, and he's a much better runner (2023) than Geens, so why do you think a prediction of 1:10:31 for Geens is unreasonable?
NB I still reckon Geens will win, without having to run sub 70.
One thing we can be sure of: daddy Long will run a lot better than his 1:17(!) in 2023.
Curran is a 'dark horse' for WPro podium(5).

Geens looks good on paper (and on strava), but he has only raced 1 70.3, which he didn't even win. Experience matters quite a bit at this race distance, and he has not established himself yet as a force at this distance. I think he has a chance at winning, but it is unlikely as there are simply too many superstars in this race who will beat him if they have a good day. Long beat a lot of people at Miami who are way more proven than Geens at middle distance. Furthermore, Lionel appears to be way more dialed in than last year. Laundry is always a force and could definitely win again. If Dubrick is even a little better on the bike this year he could also win. Lange is not going to be significantly faster than anyone else at a cool half marathon. He outshines everyone at warmer marathons where cooling is such a huge factor.

1. Long
2. Sanders
3. Laundry
4. Dubrick
5. Geens
6. Lange

Is Lange expected to be a front pack swimmer out of this field (that lacks a lot of top swimmers)? Anybody have an idea what kind of form Braden Currie is on? For shits and giggles I'll guess . . .

1. Geens
2. Currie
3. Long
4. Lange
5. Laundry
6. Sanders

Women's

1. Knibb
2. Findlay
3. Jewett

Probably forgetting some names that'll be on there on the women's side. EPB is out or at least injured from a recent bike crash, no?

---

Dimond Bikes Superfan

https://proseries.ironman.com/races/im703-oceanside
Pro Media: https://proseries.ironman.com/races/im703-oceanside 2pm Pacific

Yeah that's fair maybe I'm overestimating his run a bit. Don't think he would run 2+ minutes off of what he did at Indian Wells on a faster course. But idk when he served that penalty. The 5min rest could've had him running a little quicker than he would have in that race.

Responding in general to some of the other comments but I think Geens is plenty proven. He wins Indian Wells without that penalty & is a top tier short course athlete. He'll swim ahead of Laundry/Sanders/Long. Going to be interesting to see where everyone is coming out of T2. Geens will out run all of them if he's on form. They'll need to pass him early & get a gap. Could be harder with the ocean swim + 12m draft zone.

I like Dubrick a lot. People seem higher than I am on Lange. I just feel like he's a 140.6 guy. Don't know if his swim/bike can have him in the top-5 here. No idea where Currie is at. They talked about him on The Triathlon Hour podcast today but his championship results haven't been good since St. George.

And now we see no race ranger being used.

Might this be why Pto never called penalties with it?

Did IM basically say, if we can't trust this thing why are we using it?

There's just no way this tech won't require a lot of kinks to work out. And you can't do that without using it in races. So I'm wondering what really went down with not using it. Wouldn't RR still want the trial run experience for learning. Or is the data really just garbage in a tight field like CA. I could see the 12m zone on narrow roads causing some issues.

So for the record:

1. Ironman says Race Ranger is interesting, but thanks but no thanks.
2. Athletes and commentators moan that we really really need Race Ranger.
3. Ironman adopts it and the limited availability of the product or cost necessitates excluding some big name pros from Oceanside.
4. Athletes and pundits wonder if Race Ranger will actually make drafting more potent by allowing Athletes more time in the comfort zone without risking penalty.
4. Ironman cancels Race Ranger for bugs or other issues.

So once again we see pro athletes scored an own goal here on multiple levels for something that turns out isn't ready.

If this wasn't being televised, I'd guess they would just use it as data collection. But now that they under the big lights with this series, no way they'll run out that type of product in "trial only" period.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Where are you guys seeing no race ranger? What a terrible decision…

Here it is:

Like PTO has in their televised races?

Can you link to me where they knew of RR issues on site in Miami? If you can't, no shit it's a smart decision to take them off the telecast if they are shown to be wonky on site. T100 Miami they were actively using RR as it's intended purpose, if you are suggesting it was faulty, you may have to back up that claim.

You can't have a huge blinking light, blink different colors and not have to explain on the broadcast what it is for or means. It's bad optics, which is why I said, if this wasn't televised they likely go through with it as data collection only.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

So you're thinking whatever issue they have hadn't been seen until now. I'm just assuming it has either been seen or no one at the PTO was paying enough attention to actually use and catch the issue.

I'd assume it's the latter and Ironman was actually planning on using this for more than PR and their internal tests revealed issues.

I dont really know or care what the issue is. They've used it what less than 10 races around the world I believe? Shocking it's potential got some issues still to figure out..... I was just saying it's a no brainer to take them out of the telecast and coverage if it's still wonky.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I got the impression that they're having a problem or problems with a newer updated version that they would be using for the very first time at Oceanside. Perhaps they had problems with the previous version as well but I didn't glean that from the announcement.

YMMV

Hugh

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Yeah like the guy said above, my understanding is they were planning to use a 2.0 version this weekend and I believe it is a smaller overall unit with a central management system. I don’t believe it’s been used before at any race.

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong.

---

blog

I see in a couple places that we can watch this on Outside+ for free?? Can one of you video literate folks please post a link where that might be, or if YouTube is covering it live too???

Thanks, should be fun.

https://watch.outsideonline.com/live-events

Thanks Scott, tried to just put in outside+ and kept getting sign up pages...

Could the "not so perfect" measurement not just be used for refs to make a machine aided human interpretation call. At least just having them out there may keep pro athletes playing honest?

I think we have to add a new wrinkle to the race equation now, it is going to be cold for the entire pro race. I did a swim in the ocean down that way this weekend and the water was under 60, and looks like when they get on the bike, it will be about 48, going up to 57 by race end.. IF I recall correctly, Lionel does not like the cold, as well as a lot of other guys who excel in the heat. It doesnt sound like a lot, but there will for sure be a lot of guys and gals that aren't going to be able to get going in that kind of weather.

And for some it is going to add on minutes to their T1 time too, getting on several layers of clothing to perhaps peel off later. When I did this race a long time ago when I had just turned 50, it was just like this with rain on the early bike too. For me it was heaven, got on the bike in my skin suit and never looked back, while others took a couple hours to thaw out....

If I recall you won your age group that day and biked something like 2:20. It was the first year they had 70.3 worlds at Clearwater and you declined to go because you did not want to be in a draft fest....do I have the story straight? Maybe 2006?

Mostly good memory, I won the old mans age group and set a new record, and I got to beat my old nemesis Dean Harper by a good margin. But they were still giving out Kona slots at this race, and I was the only winner who turned it down. We made a little spectacle at our table at the awards ceremony, I quietly was saying I should just take it to do the swim so that people around could overhear(for shits and giggles). Needless to say they were flabbergasted that someone would treat such a treasure so haphazardly, not knowing of course I had already been 15 times before as a pro..

Then funny thing is Dean also then didnt take it and it rolled to 3rd, which was the biggest surprise to that guy ever. Dont remember who he was, but I think he even offered me money when it looked like I was still deciding...

The course was long in those days too, ride came out 57 1/2 miles, and the run spent a few miles in the soft sand due to road construction. But swim was spot on, Dean and I got out in around 26 flat, while the lead pro men were in the 23's. But it was all in the harbor, not one of the rare years they actually had a surf swim there, and apparently it wont happen again this year....It was quite an obstacle course going in one of the last waves, and having to swim like a frogger game...

Monty, I see the results on sportstats from Oceanside 2006 when you won (not sure it will copy and paste that well, Kevin Purcell (RIP) no longer with us:

1
MM

MARK MONTGOMERY
M50-54 Bib: 1245
VALYERMO, CA | USA
00:26:36
00:26:36
02:33:35
03:03:45
01:39:36
04:45:19
04:45:18
2
DH

DEAN HARPER
M50-54 Bib: 1291
WALNUT CREEK, CA | USA
00:26:33
00:26:33
02:41:09
03:13:17
01:35:41
04:51:20
04:51:18
3
RA

ROBERT ADAMS
M50-54 Bib: 1250
BOISE, ID | USA
00:33:21
00:33:21
02:38:26
03:17:01
01:34:41
04:53:31
04:53:28
4
KP

KEVIN PURCELL
M50-54 Bib: 1239
SAN DIEGO, CA | USA
00:30:30
00:30:30
02:35:06
03:11:53
01:39:10
04:53:39
04:5

---

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Also available here to watch, apparently: https://proseries.ironman.com/

Tough break for Race Ranger. Firmware issue caught onsite in Oceanside. I would think it'd be more important at an IM race with a 12m draft zone. I would guess more people break the 12m than ride safely off of it but I could be wrong. & I think some people like a Dubrick type could benefit from making sure they're riding the legal limit in the front pack. I guess we'll see how this affects the stronger bikers. It might allow them to bridge more quickly but it might also allow them to bring more riders up with them.

OK we got a not terrible new countdown to kick things off. Decent intro as well.


Oh fuck me no way I can handle 40m leading into this.

Monty's point about the weather and temps will be interesting. If the temps are that cool/cold getting onto the bike may require some clothing options.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

LOLOLOL I already thought I was bad at predictions, but this is just nuts

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Zero sub 1:10 predictions proved correct.
Sanders ran 1:10:40, Long >1:12 and Geens 1:11:42. Way back Weaver might run just under 1:10 (who is a 2:13 marathon runner but he's in #42 (of 69 starters) 26 minutes down)) Edit: Weaver runs 1:10:01.

I enjoyed watching the race very much. He did exactly what he planned for and I’m really happy for him.

I don’t troll. He IS 2024 Oceanside 70.3 Champion. Hope he does well for the rest of the season.

You got that right!!! He’s a different animal this year. He got his confidence back, swims better so his competitors better watch out. No more fooling around for him.

Was looking at the results. 41st place was 30 minutes off of the winner. But did have a fast enough time to fall in the top 3 OA amateurs. However 53rd through 59th all had finish times of slower than 4:30. 44-58 minutes back. That puts most of them behind at least 20 amateurs.

I know some time this will happen when guys are trying to hang on in the first couple of legs and blow up in the run. But some underwhelming swim and bike splits from some of these guys.

As for amatuers, watch out if drake deuel figures out how to swim

---

Matt

Post race article is up!

Well written, and I like the snappy style. What happened to Lange and Jewett though?

Agree with your observations, except this one thing:

Ironman must increase the prize purse, because “So many good professional athletes did not make any money today.”

Well, these professionals were there voluntarily. Oceanside was famous for having a big and relatively deep field and paying pathetic money well before they signed up. Yet pros cling to it. It’s a free market. Ironman should probably decrease the prize purse 😉

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Broken clock right twice a day. I'm glad I don't have to feel disappointed for believing the impossible dream once again.

Lol

You are awesome buddy

Yeah. He’s got the Haleakala climb I believe. And was an accomplished rower in college.

---

Matt

Didn’t Lange go off course, like Emma PB?

Skipper seemed to have suddenly lost over 2 minutes between 26 miles and 42 miles on the bike. Maybe that was just Long and Sanders getting on the front and drilling it (with Sperl Laundry and Riele hanging on like grim death).

Great, so wanted to watch Oceanside (in Australia so couldn't watch live as in the middle of the night for us, and then had to drive my son to his cycling race in the morning), now in the afternoon want to watch it but it's not available on demand is that correct? Well done Ironman I guess.

'Fraid not. Outside+ (subscription required) gives you rewind/ start from zero/rewatch but the rest (eg Outside live in NA, or the IM app everywhere else) disables that. The +30s and -30s buttons were there (live) but without function. Live or nothing.
Given that (I assume) IM will broadcast all the IM Series in this way, for you a sub might be worth it for a 4 months (another 13? races (Texas to Tallinn) before Nice). I'm assuming IMWCs and Taupo will be streamed in a way which will allow review; maybe that's naive.

Yeah I know there's some joking in here but I don't think it's out of line to ask if IM can do more for their pros. 8 deeps & 7.5k >>> 1k isn't very much for a major race. The Pro Series is great but it only exists because PTO forced their hand. It still mostly benefits top triathletes who were already making a living in the sport. I'm really just asking them to move the money around. Some of the $100k races will be a lot weaker than this one. I think IM could even do what PTO does & pay a good chunk of the field a small amount for showing up. Places 15-25 get $500 or something like that. I think some of the non-Pro Series $40k range races could also be broken up into multiple $15k-20k races to help developing pros set up their race calendars. Some critiqued the size of this field/back of pack pros (don't think there was any real impact on the race) but a lot of the smaller 70.3 pro races were gutted for the Pro Series. Races like Oregon/Gulf Coast/Michigan/Maryland/etc aren't on the calendar. If you're a North American pro you have limited options.

I was doing the math

If I bought the subscription and had access to the 30s fast forward, and I started watching 15 min late so I could press fast forward at every ad, would it be worth it ? Then I realized I would have to start watching 3 hours later because I would have caught up to the front of the race within one hour. I would have had to leave my finger on the button.

IM thought it needed to surpass a no sound, in the dark broadcast. They managed to be more annoying with their ads.

So, I came 700th this time around, one more to go.

(Yes, of course, it was 700th out of 731).

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

You forgot on M60, homeboy just causally wakes up out of bed and can run a 15:15 5k with little training.

---

---

Save: $50 on Speed Hound Recovery Boots | $20 on Air Relax| $100 on Normatec| 15% on Most Absorbable Magnesium

Blogs: Best CHEAP Zwift / Bike Trainer Desk | Theragun G3 vs $140 Bivi Percussive Massager | Normatec Pulse 2.0 vs Normatec Pulse | Speed Hound vs Normatec | Air Relax vs Normatec | Q1 2018 Blood Test Results | | Why HED JET+ Is The BEST value wheelset

People get butthurt that some guy who gets 50th place is racing the professional category. If that same guy was racing amateur they’d be butthurt that he’s beating them and telling him he should go pro (50th place pro would have been 5th amateur, which seems completely normal to me). My guess is fewer than 20 of the MPRO that were at Oceanside are able to make an actual living as a triathlete, the decision to race pro vs AG is largely personal for people qualified to do so.

---

Dimond Bikes Superfan

I'm 49 years old. If I got offered a Pro slot, I'd take it, lol. It would never happen but I wouldn't give a shit what anybody thought and I would be last pro at every race I did. There would definitely be amateurs beating me.

---

http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

Just an aside and not particular to this guy at all (no idea who he is): as a former collegiate runner, I learned that these guys (I was basically one of the) are way more common than one might think. The thing is that most of them had great difficulty going from 15:00 to 14:00 say, no matter how talented they seemed and how much work they did. It’s like many of them never get much slower even if they stop training, but also never get much faster - regardless of their training. It’s weird. I would love to understand it better.

Some people’s baseline is very fit, but often they don’t respond to, or can’t handle, serious training.