Saw the link to my site. Interesting question so I did a quick check against races I have slot counts for. I'll put up some tables of data later on, but for now I'll give a rough answer to this question.
It does vary hugely by age group and race. Slot allocation to an age group can be anything from 1% of total numbers to 4-5% depending on race size and age group sizes. Taking M30-34 as an example then in the race data I have it's quite common for ta further 5-15 athletes to finish within 10 minutes of the final Kona slot. In a major age group in a major race I'd say you're typically looking at Kona slots for the top 1-2% of the age group and a further 1-3% finishing within 10 minutes of those top places. If you're finishing in the top 5% of that age group you're likely within sight of qualification.
Bear in mind this doesn't consider the spread of times for qualifiers which can also be large. Being within 10 minutes of the final qualifier in some races could still place you 45 minutes back from the winner. It also doesn't consider roll downs (information on this is sparse) so some I use the slot count for an age group and take the time for the last place that would automatically qualify.
Russ
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