Here is the surface temp map for the area. Can vary quite a bit depending on current/wind.

http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/michigan/m52.html

I've never done Steelhead, but its only been cancelled twice in 10 years I think. I did the Grand Haven sprint a couple weeks ago and that got cancelled due to under current/rip tide concerns as well as breaking waves. If it gets cancelled, that will be why.

Here is a bouy not too far south of Benton Harbor. It will give you a rough idea.

http://uglos.mtu.edu/...ge.php?station=45026

You can find the temps here
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=marine
and here
http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/michigan/7day/m5/



Water has been warm in the mid 70's, but rough today 5-8 foot waves.

Yeah, she's angry today, lake's turning over. It will be low 60's by tonight. Sadly, I haven't been in it once this summer. I don't think it got into the reasonable temperature zone until a couple weeks ago. Such a cold frozen winter and a mild summer so far.

IT could be anywhere from low 60's to mid 70's and barely WS legal. It' a big lake and as mentioned it can "turn over". Meaning cool water just off shore 10+ feet down, gets push towards land and displaces the water warmed by the air & sun. I was across the last at Sheboygan, WI this time last summer and the water temp dropped at least 10F overnight one day when a storm front moved in. Even the kids didn't want to go in.

I'll be there. Low probability of completely smooth water. Good change on slight chop, descent chance of 1-3' waves ... somewhat ocean like. Above 3' and they'll cancel it because sighting becomes a problem, seeing athletes is an issue and many just won't be able to handle it. Just too dangerous to risk it.

On the flip side, that what i like about this race... the swim. Its' not a murky midwest lake. It's real open water and i grew up in Michigan and vacations every summer on the great lakes, so it's a home coming for me. The swim isn't my strength, but I'll be disappointed if it's cancelled.

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She can swing 40 degrees over night. I won't check temps until we get closer to the date. Like the other guy said, it's only recently been in a decent swim temp.

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The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.

 Here's surface water temps: http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/michigan/m5.html

Here's an interactive map of the currents as well: http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/currents/

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There is our "turn over" for July. Only a 20 degree drop though.

http://uglos.mtu.edu/...bel=GMT&therms=1

Not ALWAYS...we were very much swimming into the wind last year going from south to north. Why do you think most people were complaining at the swim start...

Honestly those waves my the swim fun but we were definitely swimming into the wind.

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Fester from Detroit, Mi

That kind of crap makes me wonder if I need to order a neoprene cap just in case, though I suspect surface temp at the top 9-12" won't be that cold... and air temps will be at least the lower 60's with high RH more than likely.

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Looks like the lake definitely turned over I bet water temp may be mid 60s? Its about 52 according to the buoy right now. Heres the chart of waveheight and water temperature:

http://imgur.com/hpIPaXc

I swam in the lake yesterday in Chicago and it was cold… After riding the 6 miles home I was even colder. Sometimes I really miss the fat that used to keep me warm!

Water turned again in Holland. 41 degrees yesterday and 45 degrees today. 20 degree shift in one day. At least the temps are still holding 60ish in South Haven. At best I think we will see 62-65 degree temps. At worse 40s.

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The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.

Im seeing closer to md-high 60s:
http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/michigan/m5.html


Hopefully that is the case

Yeah, it is now in St Joe, but he's up in Holland (north of Saugatuck) referring to the black that keeps creeping down. I was in Holland a couple weeks ago and it was nice. Now its 40 degrees up there.

I'm really hoping it stays in the 60's at the race site with a nice south to north current (they aren't guaranteeing the swim will be with the current this year, just says it will race south to north). If not, I'm kind of hoping for less than 52 degrees and a duathlon. Yes, I'm a wimp when it comes to cold.

Yeah, she never really got warm this summer, and really, it's as warm now as its going to get this year. We never got consecutive above average hot days. The 10 day forecast into August is barely touching 80 degrees, and the next couple weeks are usually our hottest. Sigh, the coming winter already has me scared, I can't take another winter like last year.

Oh good lord....so much THIS ^^^^.

I hate the cold....despise it. This winter in Chicago (and many other areas) was simply brutal and the only thing that keeps me sane is June-September. This summer has been so mild, it has been ridiculous. I actually bailed on a ride this AM because I couldn't bear putting on arm warmers in July......AGAIN.

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Well, cooler lake should mean less lake effect snow...so at least there's that

I had 12 open water swims in lake Michigan (Holland Beach) last year. I have 0 this year. It's depressing.

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The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.

I hope the swim is still on. Flying up from AZ (you can have some of our heat) for my first 70.3. Good thing I have another race this year if the swim is cancelled.

+1 on this for sure as we were definitely swimming into it last year. The first few hundred yards were pretty intense.