Do a 200 time trial.

All T's in seconds.

Then your T1000 should be close to T500 + (T500 - T200)*(3/5)

I have been doing this estimate for a while and only last week found out I was applying something called "the monod model." Specifically in this case we are applying the Monod model with the assumption that the power required to swim is proportional to the velocity, which is not strictly true but close enough in this case.

I have been swimming, and coaching, for a quite a while and have never heard of anything like what you speak.. But, hey, that doesn't really mean much... I still feel like I've a lot to learn...

For me, the best way to pace is to count strokes in the pool and maintain that rate over very long distances without stopping: (yesterday, - I was down to 10 strokes per 25 meter pool and I've been out for a while due to a nasty bike crash. I hope to be down to 9 strokes in a couple of weeks).

For the past few years, I've been doing a lot of over-distance stuff: some weeks, - I'll swim 4500 meters straight 5 days in a row, and concentrate on different things. Often, I concentrate on going out slow and finishing strong. At FINA last year, I negative split my 800m, and I have done two 1500m pool races subsequent and negative split those as well. I think that it's easier to finish strong if one really does a lot of over-distance training. Personally, I've found it interesting that I can die, and then recover later on the bike, but if you go out too fast swimming, - you're dead forever; the consequences of going out too fast in swimming are much greater.

In open water swimming, I see a lot of people who try to site, (or is it sight)?, and navigate more often as the race wears on. This includes stopping to navigate, and lifting the head too much and too often. One of the things that I work on is keeping my head DOWN, and practice having my eyes closed when I take a breath, and working on my technique so that I swim straight; so I won't have to site so often in the open water. Although, there are Masters open water events that require an escort, such that the swimmer shouldn't have to worry about navigation.

I don't find your model to be accurate, as I gives an estimated 1000 time about 15 seconds too slow (1.5 seconds per hundred). It might work for a 100 or 200 guy who is moving up, but it is not going to work for a 1650 or 1000 guy.

A good predictor I've used both as a competitive age-group/college swimming and as an adult is TT of 1x550yds at race pace effort. All you need to do is take the time for the 550 and multiply it by 3 (for meters do a 500) and you get a reasonable estimation of your mile time in a race. Two years ago for example, I did a 5:56 for the 550 TT which translated to a 17:48ish mile time. In the meet I was 17:55.

So using this approach for you at 1:25/100 for a 500, my guess is you'd be ~23:00 for a 1650.

In open water swimming, I see a lot of people who try to site, (or is it sight)?,


Sight, as a verb, means to direct one's gaze. As a noun, the ability to see.
Site, as a noun, the location of something. As a verb, to situate.

In open water swimming, one sights.

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

I'm flattered you called it my model. The "Kevin model" I like it.

And yes, it applies within ranges. You wouldn't expect it to predict a 1,000 time from a 50 and 100 time, although the model assumes that it would. For my numbers, it says I would be faster at the 1650 and 3000 than I am.

It's also quite sensitive to variations in pacing, so if you did the 200 on a day when you were ON, and a 500 on a day not so much, then there you go.

And then, you've got the problem that the model is really done in terms of power so we'd have the throw some velocity^3 in there to get really close.

I would think a 1650 from a 500 and 1,000 would probably be closer.

But on the other hand it beats the hell out of the other estimates that people have supplied for the guy asking the question.

I also assumed the guy wasn't interested in swimming anything over 500 yards either, so 200 seemed like a good start.

"Then your T1000 should be close to T500 + (T500 - T200)*(3/5) "

Shouldn't this be *5/3??

FWIW - I found it to be about 6 seconds (about .6%) too fast for my T1000.

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Well I believe in God, and the only thing that scares me is Keyser Soze

how do you maintain speed with such few strokes?

maybe counting one 'stroke' as left arm and right arm - so if you counted each individually, it'd be 20, which makes more sense for 25m.

either that or super long streamlines off the turn.

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

I train at about 13-15 strokes per 25m and I do about 1:30 per 100m when I'm fittish. My coach does about 8-10 strokes per 25m and he goes sub 60 seconds with ease.

What does all this mean? I'm aiming for ZERO strokes, which means I will be right around ZERO seconds per 100m! Wahoo!

Guess I better hit the pool and focus on my kick and not so much on my arms! LOL

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TriDork

"Happiness is a myth. All you can hope for is to get laid once in a while, drunk once in a while and to eat chocolate every day"

What does all this mean? I'm aiming for ZERO strokes, which means I will be right around ZERO seconds per 100m! Wahoo!


LOL. Seriously - how is your stroke count so low? Mine is ~17/25y and I feel like those are really long, careful strokes. Stroke count isn't something I pay particular attention to, but 8-10/25m?! I'm confused. My brother can pretty easily go under a minute for a 100 too, and he told me ~ 15 strokes/25y.

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

I swim in a 25m pool, rather than 25y. That's about 10% extra. (just to clarify that)

I'm a lazy, old, fat, b@stard. I don't want to do any more work than I have to in the pool.
Therefore, I have focussed primarily on efficiency. That means two things mainly.

1) Body Position. No use flinging your arms around if you swim with your legs and butt hangin' down, increasng your frontal area. Get your legs and butt right near the surface and your life will be sooooo much easier. Body position is critical and the numer one thing I focus on

2) Long boats go faster than short boats (assuming the same width etc) so I make myself as long as possible. For example, I put my hand out front and leave it there until my other hand pretty much enters the water beside my head. That way I'm longer, for longer, so to speak. Many people start their pull right away, resulting in being shorter on average. And that means slower. Another trick to make each stroke last longer is to make sure you brush your thigh, as close to your knee as possible, to maximize the length of your stroke. You don't actually et much power at athe back end of your stroke, but it does keep you long for longer, hence efficiency improvements, lower stroke rate and fater over long distances.

I practice catchup drills alot and for a 46 year old 5'7" fat guy, I go pretty fast. (not fast overall, but fast for the conditions noted above). When I get tired, say at the end of a 1500m set, I concentrate on long strong strokes, rather than just trying to flail my arms faster.

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TriDork

"Happiness is a myth. All you can hope for is to get laid once in a while, drunk once in a while and to eat chocolate every day"

Yes, 5/3 you are right.

T500 + (T500 - T200) * 5/3

And I just realized flanagan was busting my hump for 1.5 seconds per 100. Assuming he's doing 60 second 100s, a generous estimate, then that 2.5%. He's busting me for 2.5%!

S'all good fun.