Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers

Jul 7, 15 19:03

Post #1 of 54 (5134 views)

Starting the thread tonight for tomorrow's stage - busy AM planned.

Today's route is lumpy, but no categorized climbs. The course does apparently wrap around in itself several times, so crosswinds could play a factor.

After the chaos and stress of the last 4 days, however, I'm expecting a pretty routine stage. Etixx will be willing to do the work, both to protect Martin's jersey and also to set Cav up for the win. Don't be surprised to see the Maillot Jaune leading Cav out tomorrow.

Tinkoff and SKY will be looking to recover from the last 3 days of digging deep so early. So expect an early breakaway, but Etixx will ride tempo to keep it pretty close and Lotto will pitch in, as well.

The finish sounds tricky, so could be an opportunity for a good bike handler to sneak away in the last few hundred meters....Sagan, perhaps?

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 19:19

Post #2 of 54 (5097 views)

If anyone has a .gpx our kml of any of the routes we will post some weather analysis at the projected speeds these boys will be doing. Planning on doing a few stages but haven't had time to map them out yet.

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Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 19:36

Post #3 of 54 (5065 views)

Anything is possible, but in general, I agree. The roads are supposedly open to wind, so there is the potential for the peloton to get ripped apart, but I just don't see Sky, Astana, Tinkoff, or BMC coming to the front and slaying their work horses to make it happen.

Ettix will control the front as it's their duty, so that should ensure the break is reeled back in a textbook manner.

Cav's probably the favorite, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a repeat of Stage 2 where Greipel and Sagan get onto Cav's wheel and just hope he goes too early.

Ettix has had a roller coaster first 4 days and while they should be extremely happy for Martin, I'm wondering if they can lock down and get back down to business tomorrow. I'm guessing they might have a hangover...both figuratively and literally.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Jason N] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 19:50

Post #4 of 54 (5038 views)

I think there is a decent chance that Etixx botches the stage finale just because they have been on the front all day...and the jersey is gonna take priority over the stage. With no Gc guy, they are gonna wanna hold this as long as they can.

So yeah, that could lead to Griepel or Defenkolb using that to their advantage...and Degenkolb was pretty upset after the stage today. He may look for revenge tomorrow.

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 20:18

Post #5 of 54 (4996 views)

After Stage 4, Tony deserves to wear the jersey another day. Hopefully, Etixx gets the leadout right this time, and we see the yellow leading out Cav for the win. And Tony gets to wear it for one more day. Hopefully.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 20:21

Post #6 of 54 (4993 views)

There's nobody that has a good chance to win tomorrow's stage that is a threat to Martin's yellow jersey. The smartest thing that Etixx could do would be to get somebody into the break and then just rely on the sprinter's teams to do the work pulling the break back. They don't gain anything by hammering at the front all day and wearing themselves out.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [craigj532] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 20:41

Post #7 of 54 (4971 views)

How about possibly wanting to control the front, ensure no breaks stick, and get their man some more points to close the gap to Greipel? Stage win would also be nice.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [craigj532] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 20:44

Post #8 of 54 (4967 views)

All the sprinter's teams will want to control the break tomorrow to go for stage win. Etixx won't have to control it on their own.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Jason N] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 21:04

Post #9 of 54 (4949 views)

Decided to stop actually working and work on this as the cross winds seemed pretty extreme.

Looks like the forecast tomorrow across the weather stations on course is pretty blustery. Might rip the back of the peloton up and if people get dropped it will be really hard to make it back on. Any mechanical could blow your day/tour for sure. That being said with the head wind coming back into the finish it doesn't look like any small break could head off the main group on the last 1/3 of the course.

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Founder: BestBikeSplit
Amazonian

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [ajminn] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 21:05

Post #10 of 54 (4947 views)

ajminn wrote:

How about possibly wanting to control the front, ensure no breaks stick, and get their man some more points to close the gap to Greipel? Stage win would also be nice.

All the sprinters' teams want those things. There's no need for Etixx to do all the pulling to achieve those goals. And if they get a man in the break, then they have an excuse to do very little work. Leave it to Greipel's team to do the work if they want to protect the green jersey.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [craigj532] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 21:11

Post #11 of 54 (4939 views)

Whoops... Misread. Thought you said that there's no reason for them to hammer out front at all. I think they'll be smart to look for other teams to share the load, but if they don't get a man up front, they'll definitely put in the work to make sure it all comes together before the finish.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [craigj532] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 15 21:16

Post #12 of 54 (4936 views)

craigj532 wrote:

ajminn wrote:

How about possibly wanting to control the front, ensure no breaks stick, and get their man some more points to close the gap to Greipel? Stage win would also be nice.

All the sprinters' teams want those things. There's no need for Etixx to do all the pulling to achieve those goals. And if they get a man in the break, then they have an excuse to do very little work. Leave it to Greipel's team to do the work if they want to protect the green jersey.

The Green jersey is less susceptible to being lost to a breakaway than the yellow since it is based on points, not time. Griepel can still clean up the lower spots and gain ground on his rivals.

That said, it is likely gonna be a game of bluffing....if I was Lotto or Giant, I'd say to Etixx "your jersey, go ride". Let them get tired from doing most of the work and help minimize the threat from Cav. Maybe offer up a rider or two to help.

Then when it gets down to crunch time, use my fresher riders to set up my train and take control.

Lots of ways this can play out, but I think a bunch gallop is likely either way....everyone is gonna want a "normal" day tomorrow after the craziness of the first 4 days.

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 1:39

Post #13 of 54 (4877 views)

Power13 wrote:

craigj532 wrote:

ajminn wrote:

How about possibly wanting to control the front, ensure no breaks stick, and get their man some more points to close the gap to Greipel? Stage win would also be nice.

All the sprinters' teams want those things. There's no need for Etixx to do all the pulling to achieve those goals. And if they get a man in the break, then they have an excuse to do very little work. Leave it to Greipel's team to do the work if they want to protect the green jersey.

The Green jersey is less susceptible to being lost to a breakaway than the yellow since it is based on points, not time. Griepel can still clean up the lower spots and gain ground on his rivals.

That said, it is likely gonna be a game of bluffing....if I was Lotto or Giant, I'd say to Etixx "your jersey, go ride". Let them get tired from doing most of the work and help minimize the threat from Cav. Maybe offer up a rider or two to help.

Then when it gets down to crunch time, use my fresher riders to set up my train and take control.

Lots of ways this can play out, but I think a bunch gallop is likely either way....everyone is gonna want a "normal" day tomorrow after the craziness of the first 4 days.

Exactly what Giant have been doing so successfully last year. Let OPQS pull all day, pretend to be tired and incapable of lending a pull, and then show up with 5km to go and let the train rip.

ZONE3 - We Last Longer

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [tessartype] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 5:50

Post #14 of 54 (4789 views)

Greipel was off the back early, did anyone see what happened? I was dropping my fianc� off at the train and didn't record the first 20 minutes. Sigh - first world problems.

Last edited by: soobrex1: Jul 8, 15 6:12

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 7:10

Post #15 of 54 (4628 views)

have etixx swtiched bikes?

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 7:12

Post #16 of 54 (4620 views)

Andrewmc wrote:

have etixx swtiched bikes?

Dunno, but Cav is clearly not on the new Venge today. Just had a wheel change, but kept the same bike.

AFAIK, he was the only Etixx rider who was on the new Venge. Sagan is on one, as well.

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [soobrex1] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 7:13

Post #17 of 54 (4618 views)

Puncture for Cavendish. Should be fine as long as he has enough team-mates with him to get back to the pack without burning too many matches.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 7:42

Post #18 of 54 (4537 views)

Can't watch while at work but would the crosswinds be enough to shake things up again? I would think now the favs will stay up front and make sure they don't get split up.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [flyrunride] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 7:45

Post #19 of 54 (4531 views)

Looking highly unlikely to be anything other than a group sprint finish.

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 8:39

Post #20 of 54 (4401 views)

Power13 wrote:

. Don't be surprised to see the Maillot Jaune leading Cav out tomorrow.

Just sayin'....

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 8:42

Post #21 of 54 (4393 views)

Wow....Sagan was moving SO much faster than everyone else....just totally mis-timed his move.

Another crafty win by Greipel.

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 8:43

Post #22 of 54 (4389 views)

Sagan would have the strava KOM, he was moving.

Pactimo brand ambassador, ask me about promo codes

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 8:48

Post #23 of 54 (4368 views)

Sagan was flying. He's really progressed as a rider, he's up there on every single stage.

I completely wrote Greipel off when I saw him falling back, but then he flew right off Cav's wheel and crushed his sprint!

Also, Etixx how has managed to botch so many races this year?

"Don't you have to go be stupid somewhere else?"..."Not until 4!"

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 8:54

Post #24 of 54 (4347 views)

Mr. Consistent. Podium or bust...but not top of the podium :)

Re: Tour de France Stage 5 - Spoilers [kollac] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 15 8:59

Post #25 of 54 (4332 views)

I thought he was doomed for a 4th or 5th at best in the final 200m. Got a little giddy when Sagan swept out to the side - thought he was going to steal it.

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