This is Quintana race. AC will have a bad day(s) because of the Giro and no TT for Froome to make up lost time.

/thread

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Hmm, not sure the tour de France can live up to that, I honestly think the Giro is the best of the big 3.

The Giro was truly awesome. Like the Vuelta have been the last couple of times.

IMO the Tour is only #1 due to its history. Both the Vuelta and Giro have catched up and surpassed the Tour in terms of route and entertainment.

Cheering for Bertie, but think the Giro has been too hard on his body to be able to out perform Froomie og Quintana. Might be competitive in the beginning though. But 3 more weeks is a tough asking.

History and TV coverage, free to air TV in Australia has only had the Giro for the past two years.

I think the route in the Giro has been epic and for that reason i agree that the double will be hard. My money would be on Quintana, I don't think Alberto will be able to hold his form late in the race due to the beating his body has taken in the giro.

Hard to disagree with much/any of that.

Froome - Time will tell how well he will climb, he could still recreate the performance that we saw from him in 2013. If he can accelerate and spin like he did on Ventoux that year then he's got a great chance, although the lack of any real time trialing will make it harder for him.

Contador - I struggle to count him out when he's healthy, regardless of fatigue in his legs. I'd sort of like to see him win it and even push through for the Vuelta, just for the history that it would create.

Quintana - The course plays to his strengths and he's been brilliant in grand tours of late. I'm convinced he would have held on for the Giro/Vuelta double last year were it not for that crash. He's maturing year on year, is probably the favourite overall.

Nibali - I don't think he'll podium. Personally I'd love to see him crack, I don't think Astana should even be racing.

Other predictions - Panzerwagen in Yellow until stage 3.
Green jersey is more unpredictable this year due to redistribution of points away from intermediate sprints, so it doesn't play to Sagan's strengths as much any more - his unbroken success despite not winning a stage last year is probably the reason that they changed it. Degenkolb is my favourite for it, but I'm not counting Cav out. Kittel is an unknown at the minute due to bad form in the spring.

What about Kristoff? :) I have him in green unless CAV goes ballistic winning 5-6 stages like in the HTC-days.

I totally forgot about Kristoff.
Yeah he's gunna be right up there.

much as I don't like the team either, why the hate on Nibali? He has been squeaky clean throughout his career. not even a hint of a doping scandal unlike contador, froome, or many other GC riders. has had a solid, steady progression and consistent performances. Rides agressively, with balls of steel ( stage 5 of the tour last year, anyone?) and is always entertaining to watch, especially when he uncorks some of those impressive descending skills he has. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Fuglsang is another likeable rider.


As for the chances, I think it will depend alot on the team each of the contenders bring as well.

Tinkoff saxo- will have a strong lineup with rafal majka, anker sorenson, and jesus hernanzdez, kiserlovski, Zaugg as well. Rogers/basso, maybe, it depends on whether they recovers in time. Maciej bodnar for the flats and leadouts. Jay Mccarthy? Sagan will definitely be there to hunt stage wins, but can pull his own weight as backup for contador as well. The problem ies in how they are going to balance ambitions for yellow with contador and green with sagan.
Sky- Mikel Nieve, Nicolas roche will be there for the climbs. proably wout peols and sergio henao as well. Geraint thomas, pete kennaugh to motor the flats. if richie porte recovers in time, also will be a solid backup plan.
Movistar- capecchi, Moreno, Anacona,Gadret, Valverde, sutherland, dowsett, - some solid climbers but generally a team of good all rounders.
astana- fuglsang and lars boom, definitely. Vanotti, Agnoli and westra are probables. grivko and ccpzic as well.

the weakest teams I see, really, are tinkoff saxo ( dilution of strength) and Movistar,

Maybe I was a little harsh on Nibali, but personally I find it difficult to believe that he is separate to what appears to be a culture within the team.
Perhaps he is a good egg, and is simply a hard working and talented rider. Like anybody else, I'd prefer this to be the truth over the alternative.

IMO Richie Porte is definitely going to the Tour. Look at the tweet that Chris Froome sent him on the day he left the Giro:
"We all face adversity at some point, it's how you come back from it that counts! "
That screams "Come to France with me to try to win the Tour" if you ask me.

I think Sagan will be left disappointed with the lack of resources he'll get at the Tour, Oleg seems singular in going for Yellow.
He's been ok before with little help at Cannondale, but it's looking more and more like he joined the wrong team for him. Top sprinters and GC teams just don't mix, look at Cav when he was at Sky.

I believe he will be too, but we have had no word on that knee injury. If it's bad he may not be in the best shape.

agreed on sagan. He probably will have to wing it with limited support. Same tactic, may not outrightly win many sprints but consistency will be key. with kristoff in such fine form he may not be able to run away with the green jersey like previous years.

My 2 cents is that we don't have a single thread only for the Tour de France. I felt the Giro thread was poorly attended overall and the discussion minimal on a daily basis. A few times, I wanted to start independent threads about Contador, his racing style, past doping, recovery from brain surgery etc etc, but refrained. Likewise wanted to start independent discussion about Ryder but refrained. The TdF will get much more interaction with a lot of topics. A single flat thread does not cut it. I think we should openly discuss the TdF in new threads daily, with topics pertinent to the racing at hand. Anyone who does not want to know what happened in the Tour should just avoid the internet and certainly any endurance sport website like ST. "Spoiler" is a decade old thing. Time to kill it.

Dev

I struggle to rule out the Contador double because he seems to defy the logic behind riders not being able to win the double in the modern era. Riding the Giro can't be as bad as breaking your leg in terms of physical body toll can it? If you can fracture your leg in the Tour and still win the Vuelta or dislocate your shoulder in the Giro and still win, is the Giro really going to prevent a win in the Tour? For anyone else I would say it isn't possible but if Cantador has one "super-human" ability it seems to be his physical ability to recover from trauma.

In my opinion for Contador to win he needs some luck,some hard work and great timing. When I look at Ryder in the Giro it was amazing to see how much stronger he got as the race went on. In the final week he managed to go from 10th to 5th I believe. I think if the tour starts off a bit soft Contador will get a bit more rest and then hopefully he can be strong for that final 1.5 weeks. Usually the tour doesn't work that way so i'ts a long shot. I'd like to see him take it just for the double's historical value but Quintana is the one I'm hoping see leave with all the glory otherwise.

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"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

Actually, the idea of *spoilers* is becoming more prevalent as people take to binge watching TV series, etc.

No one that advocates the idea of spoilers wants to see people refrain from discussing the topic at hand....just don't put spoilers in the title. Heck, I'm more than willing to start 21 threads before the race that say "Tour de France Stage XX Discussion Thread - *spoilers*"

As I have pointed our previously, there are many subjects being discussed on ST besides race results. Advocating a policy of *spoilers* is an inclusive policy as it lets all members of the forum participate in whatever threads they choose. I don't see why anyone would object to that.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

If anyone wants to post daily, go for it. I just do not understand how putting spoiler in the topic/thread title is a problem. For tactics for instance. Instead of Contradors winning tactic, why not "Today's winning tactic" ............I just do not understand I guess

Sometimes a thread title like "Froome's illegal gel feed on Alpe d'Huez" or "Cavendish blows it and takes out 5 others" results in more discussion than a couple of comments deep in a comprehensive thread on the entire tour or a "today's stage thread". Seriously if people don't want to know what happened in the world, probably better to steer clear of the internet and media. That's my 2 cents.

I think Dan is missing out on a lot of traffic, discussion, banter and eyeballs with this ancient spoiler policy. There would be much more excitement and energy during the Tour (or Giro) with much more open discussion. The reality is that open discussion about the Tour (name your event) will drive more energy/eyeballs/posts/excitement to this forum around people excited about the event at hand than others wanting to come here for other reasons while wanting to watch their PVR recording later. Those guys are typically not contributors to ST content anyway (that's my 2 cent opinion). In the end more content creates an exciting forum.

Ok....I see your point. makes sense...thanks

I think Dan is going to miss out on a lot more traffic if people start putting spoilers in the title of threads. I will watch every stage of the Tour - as I did the Giro - but, I will record them when they air in the morning and watch them when I get home from work in the evening. The first time my excitement to get home and watch is ruined because someone posts a stage winner in the title of a thread will be the last time I visit slowtwitch during the Tour.

Thanks in advance for not ruining July for me.

Ryan

I'm just curious why you mention spoilers when the race hasn't happened yet?

I don't want to know what happened until I watch it on my DVR so I usually heed Dev's advice and stay off of ST until I do so. So yes, Dan does miss out on my traffic until that point. Not sure if he cares though. I understand there still is a no spoiler policy in the forum currently, but someone ALWAYS fucks it up every year. Been burned too many times before...so it's shame on me if I get burned again.

Nobody is preventing open discussion. You can discuss anything you want in a thread.

If you cannot be bothered to click on a separate daily thread just because it doesn't tell you in the title what happened, you are best left out of the discussion in the first place

have you watch the tour in the Alpes? go and see after let me know...Giro and vuelta are very beautiful race but nothing to compar...i know what i'm talking 6 years professional 5 Tours, 2 volts and 3 giros

I don't think I understand your reasoning here, dev. If there is a thread titled *TdF Stage 3 Discusssion thread - Spoilers* are you saying that some people who are interested in discussing that stage won't enter the thread because the title is not exciting enough?

But let's assume you are right...so start a thread that says "Holy cr*p! Today's TdF stage discussion thread".

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Dauphine is over now...any changes in predictions?

Froome looks solid again. He'll need that Sky train in full force though to play to his style. Nibali looks strong as well...but for sure not playing all his cards and 100% focus on the tdf. Tejay at least gives some hope to Americans that he just *might* have a shot at the podium.