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TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more
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I was going to take a "rest day" from the daily TdF thread, but I think there are enough interesting topics for us to banter about:

  1. How the heck is Landa on the world's most awesome form after doing the Giro, while Quintana-Pinot-Mollema are toast. Is it just this latter group of three went full throttle every day of the Giro while Landa was stage hunting/climber jersey hunting and had a few more days of easy riding. The last person who was near the TdF podium after a full (but not so sharp Giro) was Lance in 2009....debate away
  2. What's your take on Landa coming back to help Froome today?
  3. It seems like the general consensus is that Bardet+Aru need 90 second on Froome by the Marseilles ITT to win the yellow in Paris. Uran probably needs 20-30s?
  4. What tactics does Contador need to apply to take the Serre Chevalier or the Izoard stage? Perhaps Quintana can turn into a stage hunting ally now. Does Sky send Landa up the road for a full on Spanish Armada style Contador attack.
  5. Matthews is 79 points out of the green. There are daily intermediate sprints preceded by at least one cat 2 or cat 3 climb and a sprinter stage into Salon and the Paris finish. That is 7 locations if I count correctly to get Green Jersey points with 2 sprinter finishes. All of these other than Paris are not tailor made for Kittell. There may still be a race for the Green in Paris.
  6. Can Tony Martin win the final ITT?

OK here is the GC:


1FROOME CHRISTOPHER1TEAM SKY64H 40' 21''
2ARU FABIO51ASTANA PRO TEAM64H 40' 39''+ 00' 18''
3BARDET ROMAIN11AG2R LA MONDIALE64H 40' 44''+ 00' 23''
4URAN RIGOBERTO188CANNONDALE DRAPAC PROFESSIONAL CYCLING TEAM64H 40' 50''+ 00' 29''
5MARTIN DANIEL105QUICK - STEP FLOORS64H 41' 33''+ 01' 12'
6LANDA MIKEL6TEAM SKY64H 41' 38''+ 01' 17''
7YATES SIMON89ORICA - SCOTT64H 42' 23''+ 02' 02''
8MEINTJES LOUIS61UAE TEAM EMIRATES64H 45' 30''+ 05' 09'
'9CONTADOR ALBERTO31TREK - SEGAFREDO64H 45' 58''+ 05' 37''
10CARUSO DAMIANO42BMC RACING TEAM64H 46' 26''+ 06' 05''
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 16, 17 17:11
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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1. Landa wasn't coasting through the. Giro ala Armstrong. But unlike Quintana going for the win, he could take a day off on some stages and still win the Blue Jersey and finish 17th on GC. Still, he's been impressive in the Tour.
2. It didn't cost Landa much to drop back to help Froome. Short of a catastrophe, Sky is all about supporting Froome. Landa is doing what he should and he'll be rewarded in the long term.
3. Yes. (I don't see these time gaps happening though.)
4. Sadly, I don't see Contador nor Quintana winning a stage. If Landa does go up the road, it will play out like today's stage.
5. I hope the Green Jersey is still on the line come Stage 21. Kittel will get at least a few points between now and then, and Matthews won't earn the max possible points. But it could be close enough to matter. (#missingsagan)
6. Yes. And he will win.

Should be a good 3rd week.



Some say "I can". Others say "I can't". Both manage to be correct.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
I was going to take a "rest day" from the daily TdF thread, but I think there are enough interesting topics for us to banter about:

  1. How the heck is Landa on the world's most awesome form after doing the Giro, while Quintana-Pinot-Mollema are toast. Is it just this latter group of three went full throttle every day of the Giro while Landa was stage hunting/climber jersey hunting and had a few more days of easy riding. The last person who was near the TdF podium after a full (but not so sharp Giro) was Lance in 2009....debate away
  2. What's your take on Landa coming back to help Froome today?
  3. It seems like the general consensus is that Bardet+Aru need 90 second on Froome by the Marseilles ITT to win the yellow in Paris. Uran probably needs 20-30s?
  4. What tactics does Contador need to apply to take the Serre Chevalier or the Izoard stage? Perhaps Quintana can turn into a stage hunting ally now. Does Sky send Landa up the road for a full on Spanish Armada style Contador attack.
  5. Matthews is 79 points out of the green. There are daily intermediate sprints preceded by at least one cat 2 or cat 3 climb and a sprinter stage into Salon and the Paris finish. That is 7 locations if I count correctly to get Green Jersey points with 2 sprinter finishes. All of these other than Paris are not tailor made for Kittell. There may still be a race for the Green in Paris.
  6. Can Tony Martin win the final ITT?

OK here is the GC:


1FROOME CHRISTOPHER1TEAM SKY64H 40' 21''
2ARU FABIO51ASTANA PRO TEAM64H 40' 39''+ 00' 18''
3BARDET ROMAIN11AG2R LA MONDIALE64H 40' 44''+ 00' 23''
4URAN RIGOBERTO188CANNONDALE DRAPAC PROFESSIONAL CYCLING TEAM64H 40' 50''+ 00' 29''
5MARTIN DANIEL105QUICK - STEP FLOORS64H 41' 33''+ 01' 12'
6LANDA MIKEL6TEAM SKY64H 41' 38''+ 01' 17''
7YATES SIMON89ORICA - SCOTT64H 42' 23''+ 02' 02''
8MEINTJES LOUIS61UAE TEAM EMIRATES64H 45' 30''+ 05' 09'
'9CONTADOR ALBERTO31TREK - SEGAFREDO64H 45' 58''+ 05' 37''
10CARUSO DAMIANO42BMC RACING TEAM64H 46' 26''+ 06' 05''


1. res ipsa loquitur.
2. what he was supposed to do, but neveetheless seemed to hesitate before doing so. don't expect the same in the mountains next week. - would not be shocked to see him refuse to go back in the 3d week if he still has good legs. he is clearly stronger than Froome. And after this week, can probably put up with a few uncomfortable dinners knowing he is gone one week later, after the tour.
3. aru is done. would not be surprised if he lands up 5th or 6th in paris. just doesn't look strong anymore. and also has shown that he doesn't have a killer instinct, doesn't really have the desire or willingness to win. has had multiple opportunities to attack froome when froome was down and has failed to do so showing how tired he is. what a disgrace not to attack when froome had a flat at the best possible moment. and on stage 14, yes, he was out of position and thus lost lots of time, but he was out of position because he didn't have the legs to stay in position. looked completely out of it coming into the finish of what should've been an easy day. i can't think of a single tour winner making so many errors, showing such lack of courage, and missing out on so many giveme opportunities (quite frankly, bardet and uran have also missed out on the same opportunities). he is not a winner.
4. I don't think the peloton cares about contador any more. nor quintana. as long as they are not going with a contender, my guess is that they will be free to go, like we saw the other day with contador
5. Matthews best hope is in the mountains: his best strategy is for his team to turn the jets on in the mountains and there would be a really good chance that Kittell doesn't make the time cut, all but guaranteeing Matthews the green
6. absolutely. my guess however, based on tdf history, is that froome does.
Last edited by: aerobike: Jul 17, 17 3:47
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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aerobike wrote:
4. I don't think the peloton cares about contador any more. nor quintana. as long as they are not going with a contender, my guess is that they will be free to go, like we saw the other day with contador
Both will be allowed in a break. However, shades of Armstrong in 2010, neither Contador nor Quintana will be able to close the deal to win a stage. (Contador is too old? Quintana is fried from the Giro?)



Some say "I can". Others say "I can't". Both manage to be correct.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Re Landa, you said it yourself, he finished 17th on the Giro, wasn't killing himself and has plenty left in the tank. Wasn't surprised to see him dropping back to help Froome, he's a good team guy and there's no reason to think he wouldn't follow team orders. I think people are reading too much into the situation, as they did in 2012 with Froome and Wiggins. I don't think Sky will send him in a break this week, I think the Sky tactic will be to set a high tempo on Telegraph/Galibier on Wednesday with the aim of softening up some legs, a few contenders may also crack but I'd expect Froome, Aru and Bardet to finish together. Then Thursday's goal will be to extend Froome's lead on Izouard. For both those days they'll need Landa to help drive the pace and be last man in support of Froome, not up the road. If Froome doesn't have the legs then they'll be in damage limitation and will likewise need Landa there, though if Froome cracks badly I guess Landa would be given the freedom to go.

Contador and Quintana are done. Contador will likely try something but it won't work.

Martin ought to win the TT, it's pretty flat and the GC contenders will be have had 2 big mountain days which he won't have to work so hard on. But TTs in the 3rd week of a GT are funny things as they're as much about who is coping with the fatigue best as they are about who is the best TTer.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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cartsman wrote:
Re Landa, he's a good team guy and there's no reason to think he wouldn't follow team orders.

If memories are correct, I can recall a Giro where he was supposed to help Aru, but went for his own chances. Both didn't win, but they got a podium.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [SkippiTT] [ In reply to ]
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You might be right. I think it's difficult to know from the outside what the team has agreed though. Some teams are more comfortable than others with having several GC contenders and seeing how things play out on the road, so maybe on that occasion he was given license to improve his own chances if Aru was struggling.

Sky's track record, for the Tour at least, is of putting everything behind one leader and sacrificing everything else to that ambition. Notably when Wiggins crashed out of the 2011 tour with a broken collarbone and the whole team waited with him, losing the white jersey in the process, though in Sky's defence they were a lot less experienced at that time. So last week's breakaway was certainly out of character for Sky.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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cartsman wrote:
You might be right. I think it's difficult to know from the outside what the team has agreed though. Some teams are more comfortable than others with having several GC contenders and seeing how things play out on the road, so maybe on that occasion he was given license to improve his own chances if Aru was struggling.

Sky's track record, for the Tour at least, is of putting everything behind one leader and sacrificing everything else to that ambition. Notably when Wiggins crashed out of the 2011 tour with a broken collarbone and the whole team waited with him, losing the white jersey in the process, though in Sky's defence they were a lot less experienced at that time. So last week's breakaway was certainly out of character for Sky.

White jersey means very little to the team; they're not going to protect it unless the white jersey also happens to be a contender for the yellow.

And as for Team Sky having a history of sacrificing everyone for one leader?; not quite. just ask Froome '12.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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Froome wasn't protected or allowed off the leash in 2012, he was riding for Wiggins and did some huge efforts in pulling Wiggins up to breakaways. On the occasions where he was going too fast for Wiggins and/or wanted to attack while Wiggins was happy sitting in, he was told by the team to shut it down and did so (albeit with a bit of clear reluctance on occasion). The fact that Froome managed to get 2nd in 2012 wasn't really a plan, it just worked out that way because Froome was so strong that year (and the opposition so weak) that he was able to pace Wiggins all the way to the top of the climbs without dropping off at any point. Landa may be similarly strong this year.

The other interesting race was the Vuelta in 2011 where Froome first came to light. There was a point at which if Sky had backed Froome instead of Wiggins they'd have likely won that race instead of getting 2nd and 3rd.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [SkippiTT] [ In reply to ]
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SkippiTT wrote:
cartsman wrote:
Re Landa, he's a good team guy and there's no reason to think he wouldn't follow team orders.


If memories are correct, I can recall a Giro where he was supposed to help Aru, but went for his own chances. Both didn't win, but they got a podium.

Yes, it was either Vuelta or Giro where he was supposed to do that. I can't remember which one but it was in the Astana days before he joined Sky.

As for this TdF and Aru, perhaps Aru is looking "less fresh" right now because he missed a long training block this spring. Maybe he had enough fitness for single days or something like the Dauphine, but maybe after 2 weeks it is catching up with him. We'll know for sure on the Izouard stage finish, but that's not enough of a climb to make up the conventionally viewed 90 seconds that Bardet and Aru need on Froome. They need to take big time plus time bonuses on the Serre Chevalier stage and Izoard. I think it is pretty well impossible to drop Froome on Telegraphe before Galibier so it ends up being a Sky TTT to the base of Galibier, and then you have the final 8K or so steep part, but even though the grade is not super duper steep, keep in mind that the final half is between 7800 and 8800 feet, so 10% almost feels like 15% in terms of oxygen availability.

Dev
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Alvin Tostig wrote:
1. Landa wasn't coasting through the. Giro ala Armstrong. But unlike Quintana going for the win, he could take a day off on some stages and still win the Blue Jersey and finish 17th on GC. Still, he's been impressive in the Tour.
2. It didn't cost Landa much to drop back to help Froome. Short of a catastrophe, Sky is all about supporting Froome. Landa is doing what he should and he'll be rewarded in the long term.
3. Yes. (I don't see these time gaps happening though.)
4. Sadly, I don't see Contador nor Quintana winning a stage. If Landa does go up the road, it will play out like today's stage.
5. I hope the Green Jersey is still on the line come Stage 21. Kittel will get at least a few points between now and then, and Matthews won't earn the max possible points. But it could be close enough to matter. (#missingsagan)
6. Yes. And he will win.

Should be a good 3rd week.

OK, will come back to my thread title. Landa's form is close to miraculous given the performance of the other double Giro-Tour guys. It feels "too good to be true", and I'm just skeptical at this point in my "fan career" whenever that seems to happen, then it is. Maybe that's why Sky is not renewing his contract because they don't want the risk of that "too good to be true" baggage, but glad to take the service now while no one externally knows about it, but maybe I'm being just too cynical.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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That´s right. Froome was willing to stab Wiggins in the back. I would love to see Landa do the same to him.


Love the Pain!

Quito-Ecuador
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
It feels "too good to be true", and I'm just skeptical at this point in my "fan career" whenever that seems to happen, then it is.

There's you your problem. I've always assumed that they are all doping/cheating/skirting the rules/etc. from the very beginning. That allows me to simply enjoy the sport/performances as they happen.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [logella] [ In reply to ]
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logella wrote:
Quote:
It feels "too good to be true", and I'm just skeptical at this point in my "fan career" whenever that seems to happen, then it is.


There's you your problem. I've always assumed that they are all doping/cheating/skirting the rules/etc. from the very beginning. That allows me to simply enjoy the sport/performances as they happen.

Agree - of course they are doping - just ignore it and watch the racing!

LANCE FOREVER!!

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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [logella] [ In reply to ]
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logella wrote:
Quote:
It feels "too good to be true", and I'm just skeptical at this point in my "fan career" whenever that seems to happen, then it is.


There's you your problem. I've always assumed that they are all doping/cheating/skirting the rules/etc. from the very beginning. That allows me to simply enjoy the sport/performances as they happen.


Well, I do the same, it's just that it feels like Landa found the new turbo "between grand tours" program that the others seemed to have missed the memo on. Can we get everyone on the same plan for more explosive racing in week 3 (or maybe a few shots of Landis approved Whiskey?) ....or the ideal TdF prep is to race the Giro and go ballistic on some stages while laying back on other stages and then do something else in between. That would be the Lemond plan, but even he had the magic Vitamin B12 treatment in between.
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 17, 17 10:44
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Back from the weekend! I am glad I DVR'ed yesterdays stage, learned my lesson last week that on the weekends NBC Sports does not do the Prime time Replay sometimes.

I was really enjoying AG2R efforts, sucks in the end that it did not pay off. Dan Martin is a beast, still pissed he crashed a week ago, just think!

Here it is, my awesome prediction for this week. Uran will win the Yellow Jersey, thanks to the help of AG2R's attacks on Froome this week. Bardet will be in yellow until the final TT and Uran takes it from him in the Final TT!!!

What happened to Pantano this year, he was awesome last year and in this years Paris Nice. He was my prediction for an awesome TDF in the prediction thread. He is having an horrible TDF this year. He was sick in the Tour of Suisse, maybe its a long term sickness.

Lets hope Talansky & Rolland are better this week to help Uran. They both can climb but have been crap so far. Rolland is probably recovering from the Giro.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Alvin Tostig wrote:
1. Landa wasn't coasting through the. Giro ala Armstrong. But unlike Quintana going for the win, he could take a day off on some stages and still win the Blue Jersey and finish 17th on GC. Still, he's been impressive in the Tour.
2. It didn't cost Landa much to drop back to help Froome. Short of a catastrophe, Sky is all about supporting Froome. Landa is doing what he should and he'll be rewarded in the long term.

He'll be rewarded, but not by SKY

I left the only woman I ever loved in a strip bar in Cleveland
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [RandMart] [ In reply to ]
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Dave Brailsford has really lost his marbles and is now attacking journalists:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/...lingnews-journalist/
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [ChrisC42780] [ In reply to ]
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Dan Martin is made of the same stuff as the terminator in Terminator 2. Who crashes at 45mph and just gets back on their bike? i don't even remember any road rash.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [RandMart] [ In reply to ]
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RandMart wrote:
Alvin Tostig wrote:
1. Landa wasn't coasting through the. Giro ala Armstrong. But unlike Quintana going for the win, he could take a day off on some stages and still win the Blue Jersey and finish 17th on GC. Still, he's been impressive in the Tour.
2. It didn't cost Landa much to drop back to help Froome. Short of a catastrophe, Sky is all about supporting Froome. Landa is doing what he should and he'll be rewarded in the long term.

He'll be rewarded, but not by SKY
Maybe Movistar (but then there's Quintana)?
How about Trek (if they can figure out a way to ease Contador out of the picture)?



Some say "I can". Others say "I can't". Both manage to be correct.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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I think Contador may well retire after this Tour anyway. He's done.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [rich_m] [ In reply to ]
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rich_m wrote:
Dan Martin is made of the same stuff as the terminator in Terminator 2. Who crashes at 45mph and just gets back on their bike? i don't even remember any road rash.

I would love to see Dan Martin win this TdF. He just needs a bit of luck with minor mishaps from the others timed perfectly with one of his attacks. If he could have just attacked harder on the Cat 1 yesterday when Froome flatted and brought 4-5 guys with him, I think he would be in Yellow today. I think everyone blew it giving Froome a chance to latch back on. There is no way all these guys were at their limit on a 14% grade with Contador still attached. If Contador was still there, the rest of the guys had head room to go a tad harder and ensure Froome did not reattach. Also they can't be at their limit if Landa can be riding with them, drop back, fetch Froome and pull him up. It does not matter which orange juice Landa is on, that's just outside the realm of possiblity IF THE GC GUYS WERE RIDING AT THEIR LIMIT. Later in the day, Dan Martin had everyone at their limit.

If Froome has another mystery "climb neutralizing mechanical" on any of these upcoming stages, Aru and crew need to go full ballistic. It was a shame that Mont du Chat was largely neutralized. Richie Porte is a fool for telling his peers to slow down at that point. This was the Queen stage on the hardest part of the climb and as far as I am concerned, mid climb like that, any mechanical, the race is ON. It's different from a crash/minor spill. All the talk about Aru attacking with Froome's hand up, I honestly think he planned the attack at that moment and just as he jumped Froome put his hand up. People are ripping up Aru for that, but if any of us had just made a decision to jump on the pedals it takes around half a second to execute that, and if it happened that Froome was lifting his hard at the exact same time, I can see the dilemma. He should have just kept hammering.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [mpo_tri] [ In reply to ]
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mpo_tri wrote:
That´s right. Froome was willing to stab Wiggins in the back. I would love to see Landa do the same to him.

When did Froome stab Wiggins in the back? I recall him spending a lot of time being an awesome team mate, pacing Wiggins on the big climbs and closing down breakaways for him. I remember him briefly losing Wiggins and then reining it back in when told to over the radio - could have been a mistake, was more likely making about of a point, but certainly not a stab in the back and if he'd wanted to betray Wiggins he'd have kept on going and put time into him. The only other incident in 2012 was when Froome and Wiggins had dropped everybody, Froome was eager to push on and increase Wiggins lead and get himself into 2nd, when Wiggins told him to instead ride tempo then again he followed orders. Hardly back stabbing stuff.

If you really want to talk back stabbing you might ask why Wiggins didn't pay Froome his share of the winnings for over a year. Pretty classless move given he may well not have won the tour without him.
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Am I the only one who thinks AG2R did too much work AFTER Froome reattached? I totally agree that they likely didn't go all out when the leader was behind and I don't know why. But why the hell kept day pulling when Froome was back. And I am not speaking of Bardets attack which was great. Wouldn't it be Sky that have to control? I think the others are more worried to lose the podium then to sit and let Froome work. Only at the end did he need to do some work to help keep Martin close.

I really like how this Tour is playing out though. Aru has always been aggressive in the mountains since I know him. And I quite like Bardet and Kind of root for him. And the longer the Tour lasts the more I see what a beast Martin is. Would be a shame when Sky keeps the Jersey all the way to Paris. I don't mind if they win at the end after a tight race with Froome taking it back in the TT. But please let the last mountain stages be a slaughterfest.

I am not the biggest sky fan. But I can't stand the fact that people are booing Froome. He is a strong rider and deserves his three tour wins and he has never done something unfair or been disrespectful. One does not need to love him but show respect at least.

And I find sky makes it interesting. At least when they are not in yellow. Des, when they have the jersey they control it (because they are strong enough to do so). But when they are not in yellow you can expect them trying hard and giving their absolute everything. Remember Froome last year on the descent? Or when he broke away with Sagan to sneak some seconds on a flat stage. Unexpected, awesome and certainly interesting.

I can't wait for tomorrow. Man, what am I going to do next week?
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Re: TDF Rest Day: The Landa Miracle Giro + Tour and more [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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If Landa is on some sort of secret sauce then so must be Froome. Team leaders get first dibs, right?
Or maybe only Sky domestiques use the motorized wheels, to protect the team leader?
If only I wasn't so jaded about pro cycling.

Speaking of which, Tour de Pharmacy was crass and ridiculous and oh so hilarious

Anyways, however it goes, I'd love to see Rigoberto in yellow in Paris.
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