This is ST, you'll get opinions on everything whether you like it or not ;-)

Back to your post, lots of info on here about training and some of the markers you *might* need to hit etc, the point I would make is that out of the 50 or so people who went under 10 last year there were likely 100-150 who were in shape to do it at 7 am race morning.

It will be as much about execution of potential on the day as achieving potential through training.

Maurice

People new to triathlon tend to be case studies in optimism bias when it comes to Ironman. You see it every couple of months posted on ST. The poster wants to qualify for Kona or other lofty goal and then wonders why everyone doesn't just support them instead of trying to talk reason and metrics. If you have been around for awhile like many on this forum, you see the cycle and crash and burn over and over. You most likely experienced the same thing on your first Ironman even. You want to help them set realistic goals, but it is a bit like love - there is usually no talking reason, you've got to let them figure it out for themselves.

First before you go after the big dog you need to start small and build up. Get speed then endurance. You need to be able to catch a couple of snipes first

What's the farthest you've swam at once? Ridden? Ran?

And how did it take till the end of page two for this response. When I saw this thread cross posted to ST, I almost popped a bag of popcorn before opening it. Way too many reasonable replies, you've all gone soft.

This guy is a tool, a troll, or just clueless.

He doesn't care whether you think he can do it or not. He's not willing to provide any evidence that he can even complete an IM, much less go sub-10 hrs -- he just wants you all to fawn over him and feed his ego.

Nothing to see here, folks. Let's move along.

---

---------------------

"Whether you believe you can or you can't, you are right."

By asking for advice on how to break 10 hrs in LP, a fantastic feat, you implicitly DID ask folks here whether or not you could do it. Moreover, you asked without providing the good folks here with any data with which to offer you practical advice. As others have pointed out, the visceral response to this type of question is skepticism.

Why? It's NOT because people are mean or don't "believe" in you. It because most folks here know that long course triathlon is hard. It takes work to do well and even then, if you don't have the genetics for it or you get injured or whatever, you may still not break 10 hrs. This is why they ask for data points. This is why most here refuse to coddle you.

---

---

My triathlon training blog

I've broken 10 hours. I did it in my 26th Ironman in 23 years. Prior to my first IM I spent about 4 years racing every distance up to 3/130/30. I broke 10 by applying everything I'd learnt over that experience. I've been to Kona 4 times now, and feel I have a good sense of what I need to do (I don't always have the time for what I need to do, but that's another story). I'm not overly gifted athletically, but I'm becoming adept at finishing ahead of plenty of folk who are.

I'm sorry, but you'll understand that while I have quite a lot of experience, I don't have a lot to say to young guys like you. My guess is that if you write a race report after your confident attempt, it will somewhere contain words to the effect of: "at this point I was clearly on track to finish around 9:45, when suddenly...." It won't be your fault, because you have what it takes, and 'strength is not your limiter' etc, but something will happen to you, because life is unfair.

Seriously, you have received some excellent advice here, and much of the best has come from those who are skeptical, as I am. You'll do better if you take heed of what they say, instead of just looking to top up on the naive confidence (which is also not your limiter).

Good luck.... LP is tough no, very tough.

I routinely go > 10 hours by about 2-3 hours, on 15-18 hours per week and a solid 10 year aerobic base... I am not genetically gifted and have job and family commitments too.

I hope you achieve your goals but LP is really very tough... the second bike loop is like hell on earth and by the time you're jogging down River Road a second time the only thought going through your head is chicken soup chicken soup..............

By way of basic advice do 14 work outs per week - 3 swim, 4 run, 5 bike and 2 short strength training, in the proportion 20:25:50:5. After 2 of the bike workouts run - once a week run 5-8 miles the second time just one mile. Eat well and sleep lots and lots.

Ummm...

This x1000!!! Talk about a good day - I was going to get the popcorn but, haven't needed it yet.

Note: Everybody here (well, almost everybody) got to be good with a "tough" attitude. Tough attitude is only a starting point. As a frame of reference, I've been a barefoot water-skier for 39 years. Whoop de do for all it means as a triathlete. To learn that (in the old days) I had to be "tough." For triathlon it's a different game. Some will have the genetics, some won't. But a given - especially as the distance increases is the volume (and correct volume) of work it takes. You could easily go out in the next few days to establish a few metrics; I think you'll find them enlightening, and humbling (500yd swim, 5k run - 12.5 hurtful laps at the local HS track, etc). Swimming for 13 months don't mean squat. Competitive swimming for 13 years might establish credibility. I've been doing this since '85 and even at 52 can go sub 2:10 Olympic. Going sub 10 IM on a decent course for me is possible (I think) but very very little can go wrong - and tons of stuff would have to go "perfect" for that to happen in a 10 hour block. Hey, you may be the genetic freak that can un-tap potential in a really short time. I guess someone has to win the lottery, but. In lieu of winning the lottery. Most of us "normal" (or somewhat gifted) folks have to work, and, work for years.

With reasonable goals you have a good chance to...

Enjoy the journey

(edited for typos :-( )

---

I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

I also said there are other variables like pacing to fast (maybe that's you?? if you can make those times but not finish under 10), dehydration, lack of carbs, injuries, strength, moving efficiency not to mention mental weakness. You can easily use short intervals to predict long race outcomes I do it all the time some times right on the nose ( make that the minute).

Don't blame my proven facts for your single sample size.

Maybe you run like in idiot because you are very inefficient on the bike ( and get tight through your the anterior chain that you cant straighten and length for your run?????) Do you think you need a high aerobic output for a 3:30 marathon ( that's so slow) ???? seems more strength and technique related after 6 hours of exercises then aerobic. ( does your heart stay over 140 even though your moving slow if so it's not cardio that's the problem for the heart is still pumping its your inability to move( i.e strength and mechanics) ).

If you need coaching help let me know those time lead to a 10 hr race result.
..

---

Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

Such an awesome thread.

I'd love to see the over/under on the percentage of those who want to see him fail vs. those that want to see him crush IMLP.

That was my point. There are so many variables over the course of 140.6 miles that using a mile split to tell someone they can or can't do something isn't practical. I'm aware that it can be accurate for someone experienced, but the OP admitted he hasn't done any endurance racing. You're "proven facts" assume he's equally prepared to run a mile and a marathon. He might be able to run a sub 5:30 mile, but that doesn't mean he can run a sub 3:30 (slow) open marathon tomorrow. From my experience I made a rookie mistake at my first IM and went out too fast on the run.

 Quote:
Note: Everybody here (well, almost everybody) got to be good with a "tough" attitude. Tough attitude is only a starting point. As a frame of reference, I've been a barefoot water-skier for 39 years. Whoop de do for all it means as a triathlete. To learn that (in the old days) I had to be "tough." For triathlon it's a different game. Some will have the genetics, some won't. But a given - especially as the distance increases is the volume (and correct volume) of work it takes. You could easily go out in the next few days to establish a few metrics; I think you'll find them enlightening, and humbling (500yd swim, 5k run - 12.5 hurtful laps at the local HS track, etc). Swimming for 13 months don't mean squat. Competitive swimming for 13 years might establish credibility. I've been doing this since '85 and even at 52 can go sub 2:10 Olympic. Going sub 10 IM on a decent course for me is possible (I think) but very very little can go wrong - and tons of stuff would have to go "perfect" for that to happen in a 10 hour block. Hey, you may be the genetic freak that can un-tap potential in a really short time. I guess someone has to win the lottery, but. In lieu of winning the lottery. Most of us "normal" (or somewhat gifted) folks have to work, and, work for years.

With reasonable goals you have a good chance to...

Enjoy the journey

(edited for typos :-( )[/quote]



Read the post above. He's 52 and 2:10 oly and potential sub 10IM! You only get here with pretty handy parents and an awful lot of hard work over a long time

OP - Listen to this guy because he clearly knows what he's talking about. Sorry to burst your bubble but he would be finished, with his feet up and enjoying his umpteenth beer while you're walking home in the dark with a glowstick and a look of disbelief etched on your face. But it will be a good lesson albeit one you could avoid if you listen to the sound advice being proffered.
I wish you well and would happily eat humble pie but I just know I won't be.
Won't happen.

Very true, with the training volume you are currently doing you should have no problem refocusing that to IM. With all the mma training you are going to have a lot of muscle you won't need. But that's an easy fix. I would look for a coach to help you redirect your workouts. I would look for an open mind ero-style coach. If you've got the right genes and can stay focused getting to the prize well be like drinking water......Hope you can do it!

People will alway look at things through their eyes and if it's impossible or hard for them, then it has to be for you too. That's the trap!

Doing a marathon is a waste of valuable training time. Better to do another smaller local 70.3. It won't interrupt your training and the run pace is the same as a open marathon and you can test your overall SBR fitness. Plus most will tell you that mentally, a 70.3 after mile 6 on the run, is harder than a marathon.

A properly trained and run open marathon bears no resemblance to a IM marathon which is run at least 0:30/mi slower.... 1-3 minutes per mile slower for most.

Do some 1/2 marathons instead. Its still a solid mental test and will prove your run fitness.

---

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

I think he should do IMWI instead and show his "strength" on every hill he comes to and prove how strong he is.

---

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

Don't listen to those who say you can't go sub 10 in your first race although listen to their training advice

What is impossible for some is easy for others

I'm not saying it will be easy for you but you seem to have a decent starting point, willingness to put in the work and the mentality to push through when it gets tough.

I went sub 10 in my second year of triathlon and I have no background in any of the sports and my parents are not generic freaks at all and I have usually been average at all sports I have done

However, I train consistently and most of the time smart except for when I forget to listen to my body and my coach. Also, i focus on executing the race by the book ie as my coach tells me to

My main concern is that lake placid apparently is a tough course and secondly you seem to be the profile that risks overtraining

Anyway, I say go for it and let's see where the cards land. No guarantee but aim for the stars and you at least land on the moon

My advice is
- find a good coach and do exactly what he says
- consider another race than lp unless your objective is sub 10 in LP and not just sub 10 in your first ironman
- don't obsess about the target, obsess about the training

He hasn't signed up for LP yet. The first step in this process is to be ready and able to fork over $700. The second step is to a) volunteer this year; b) go to the race this year to sign up; c) hover over your computer like a hacker to get in online.

OP--Placid is a popular race. Make sure you get in before it sells out.

We don't know anything about his previous timing in SBR. We also don't know if he understands the process of what it's like to get into a popular Ironman like LP.

He also fits the profile of someone that might lack the discipline to pace properly on a hilly course and on the run, and let his ego wreck his race execution. You have to pace poorly a couple times then do it right a couple times to really appreciate the difference. Meaning you need to over bike a 70.3 and walk or death shuffle a few miles to really understand. Just saying.

I wouldn't set a time target until I have something to base it on. maybe 10:00 is too easy? You never know. There was a guy named Zachary Carr that went from couch to racing Kona in the very competitive 35-39 age group in about 3 years. No athletic background, but clearly he had potential. IF he had set his goal at just 10:00... he woudn't have KQ'd and would have sold himself short.

---

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

Isn't the implication in this response he claims to be able to run a 3:10 Marathon? Or is he saying he can run a single 5:30 mile, which is a meaningless metric?

---

-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
ZOOT, QR, Garmin, HED Wheels, Zealios, FormSwim, Precision Hydration, Rudy Project

Let me turn your question around.

I have been doing triathlons for several years. I work out 10-20 hours a week and am in great shape. I was even a decent wrestler in high school. I am ready to start MMA and I want to get a UFC contract by next year.

Actually, you need to add questions about how to fight, if anyone has any tidbits of information on how to train or win, that sort of thing.

Because hey, we don't know you. Maybe you are also into kicking major ass in your spare time. Likely you wouldn't be asking questions about how to train and fight if you did, though.

Can someone with little Tri experience finish sub 10? Sure, but they likely have loads of endurance training in his history. At least an understanding of what it takes to build endurance over a 14 month training block.

Hitting metrics and showing the potential is one thing. Demonstrating the knowledge (not just drive) on how to capitalize on that potential is another thing entirely. A handful of tips from forum users ain't gonna be enough.

---

Chris Harris

a 5:30 mile isn't even that fast. If you were a weak swimmer and a so-so cyclist, you need to run a hell of a lot better than that for sub 10. 5:30 should be your 5k pace IMO.

Better to aim high than be marginal.

I don't think we're trying to be negative.... just realistic with target metrics.

You 5k, 10k, 1/2 Marathon times are all indicators of your running economy and ability... as well as mental toughness. Some folks can;t run a 5k faster than 30:00. I think some of that is they lack the ability ot HTFU in traiing and that leads to lower fitness and slower race times. It's a domino effect. My local pool is really warm. Therefore I can;t train as hard, so my fitness is lower and therefore my swim times are slower.

You will need a certain amount of power combined with a good position to average 21mph in a IM. Its' just a matter of simple physics. It's not about being positive or negative. Everything doesn't need to have an emotional connection.

Again, assuming you can just achieve what many struggle too after a decade of hard work, without any proof that you have potential, is insulting to those that have tried. Do a search. You see a LOT of love for folks that post on here with a realistic goal backed up by 70.3 times, marathon times, swim times, Olympic distance times. Some of those guys IMO sell themselves short and we're happy to tell them that they are indeed fast and can do even better.

We don't respond well to someone coming form outside the sport and telling us he spend 1/2 his week in the gym but yesterday decided he wants to be an endurance athlete, but had a goal to be faster than 95% of the triathletes out there that have been doing this for years or even decades.


We have provided plenty of constructive advice. You need to determine some benchmarks so you know where you need to improve.



Here's a better one. Look up the 2013 results. Find 5 guys around 10 hours in your age group. Cross reference them in USAT results database. Go register for thsoe races they also did last year. See how you perform. Compare your times and figure out how much faster you need to get. Results from IM athlete scale pretty well. A guy that goes 4:25 at Racine 70.3, can probably do around 9:50-55 at IMWI and might go 2:08 in an Olympic Distance.... and run a 1:25 1/2 marathon.

---

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

good stuff, that last paragraph is a logical and rational approach to do some real world benchmarking. As much as folks question the USAT ranking system, it actually is a pretty darn reliable source of who's fast in an age group.

---

I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________