HKoldtimer wrote:
Fleck wrote:
1. This is poorly understood by many, but there is actually very little correlation between stand-alone marathon time, and how you can run in an IM for the marathon there.* About the only thing these two share in common is that they are 26.2 miles long. Now, being a strong runner is a HUGE help, and you touched on that by siting it as having good "potential". But that's about it. So much of having a good run is based on how you have gone in the swim and bike and other factors such as nutrition.
2. What is diminishing the OP's chances is perhaps not his raw ability - I see some potential there - it's the time-line. Like many ambitious triathletes, it's WAY too aggressive. Many triathletes grossly under-estimate how long it takes to get to a certain level of fitness and performance. It seems close, but it's often measured in years of time. I said it before and it's worth repeating here, it takes 3 - 5 years of training to get ready to really train for an IM in the 9:30 range or better. Seriously. There are the odd freaks, who can truncate that time, but for most others, it's the long road that will yield success.
This thread has got my interest, mainly because I'm in the same boat and attempting to KQ for 2014 at the end of this year. My bike/run times are remarkably similar to WX; strong run, weaker bike though with a good swim and I'm targeting 9:30-9:40 (M45-49) as the ballpark for a KQ spot. I don't intend to spend the next 3-5 years training to qualify, I'm having a solid crack at getting to Kona in 2014 and think it's a reasonable goal (I've only been back in triathlons for 9 months though I did race in the early/mid 90's so I have some background).
Interested in your comments Fleck, not sure I agree with the assertion there is "very little correlation between stand-alone marathon time, and how you can run in an IM for the marathon". Agree a fast open Mara does not gaurantee a fast IM marathon but if you can't run a fast open marathon then you have little hope of fast IM marathon. I'd say the 2:40 shows that a sub 3:15 IM marathon is a realistic goal (BUT is hugely dependant on a comfortable swim and a strong bike so you can run to that potential).
Also, not clear why this time-line is "WAY too agressive". The OP has run a strong 1:25 half off a reasonable 2:33 bike 12 months ago and appears to have the right attitude and some endurance sports background. I think he's definitely a shot at it. Let's be honest a 9:3x is not spectacularly fast and with the times he's posted thus far is a realistic goal with solid and consistent training for the next 9 months+.
One suggestion WX - if possible I'd think about scheduling 2 IM's in your quest for Kona (I've got IM's in Dec 13 & Jun 14). It's a learning experience and I'd think you'll get alot of learnings from the 1st one. Who knows you may well get that KQ spot but if not that's a bunch of experience for your next shot. I think the bike will be the major determining factor in whether you're successful for a KQ spot - get stronger as in you can comfortably ride a 5:15 IM and I think you'll be close (assuming you don't mess up nutrition). Good luck, hope I'll see you in Kona in 2014!
Gotta love advice on KQ'ing from a non-KQ'er. 9:3x not that fast? How many people (non-pro) do you know personally who have done that, in any AG? Stateside, 30 from IMFL and 19 from IMAZ went sub 9:30 last year at THE fastest 2 IM's in NA. That's it. I'm guessing not more than another dozen or two at all other NA IM's. His Timberman splits of 2:33 and 1:25 = 3:58 + 5 for T1 and T2 + 35 min for his swim is a, what, 4:38? I highly doubt a 4:38 guy at Timberman is going to go 9:35 at IMSL. Can he go sub-10, maybe. But your suggestion of 5:15 + 3:15 (+ 5 for T1 & T2 + 1:10 swim) = 9:45 at best. Where does he gain 10-15 more min?
Until you guys hit :30/2:30/1:30 (give or take a minute or two for each), you won't sniff a 9:3x which you claim is "not spectacularly fast". I know a couple of guys who are 4:45+ 70.3'ers who have, for years, boldly stated they were going to go 9:30 for several of their past IM's. Result: NOT EVEN CLOSE as in NOT sub-10:30.
For both of you, take baby steps. Plan a solid season of 70.3's to cut your teeth and learn the ropes. Do an IM after that w/ ZERO goals other than to HAVE FUN and LEARN. I have literally met, seen, and coached 100's of people over the years who have these exact same overly ambitious, unrealistic goals. The results? About 1-2% KQ, 50+% have left the sport and never returned, 25% are perpetually injured, 20% are still aiming way too high, 3-4% KQ eventually.
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Sub-9 IM. Navy SeaBee deep sea diver. Can Do!