Drinking early today?

Stop drinking the slowtwitch koolaid. Seems that you have forgotten that the Hoff already beat Frodo in 2014. Plus he is younger and only entering his peak now. You just have to look at his progression and know a little Ironman history to know that this is Ben Hoffman's year.

Yes - this is what is stopping him:

Lange is coached by Faris, and it's hard to know really what to make of that. Faris was the youngest winner (maybe ever, but at least in a very long time), but then he never really reached that level of performance again. I doubt many people who saw Faris win at 27 thought, "oh, that's the last time he'll be on the top of the podium..." But after a valiant effort at a title defense, 2006 was actually the last time he was ever on the podium at all in Kona. So that either speaks well for Lange - Faris learned lessons he will share with his protege - or it's a warning sign.

Overall, it's interesting to compare Ben and Patrick, because they represent sort of the opposite molds of success in Kona.

Many of the great champions - Peter Reid and Tim DeBoom primarily here but also Faris and Normann and Macca (to a lesser degree) - followed the Ben Hoffman template. They went to Kona. Did "well" and continually improved before breaking through to win. Pete Jacobs also followed this mold, though Pete is a bit of an outlier in other regards. Freddie Van Lierde also. These are the guys who slowly but surely get better bit by bit. Macca doesn't really fit this mold, because in his case it was more about learning to race Kona specifically, because he crushed everything else. But Ben definitely fits this mold, especially similar (I think) to Tim DeBoom.

However, Patrick Lange represents what I think is - especially recently - the new Kona paradigm. This is typified by Luc Van Lierde originally, but more recently by Crowie, Sebastian, and - of course - Frodeno. These are the guys who make an immediate impact and where it seems pretty clear that it's only a matter of time before they win. Crowie was 2nd on debut. Sebi was 4th. Frodo was 3rd (with flats & penalty). Lange fits this with a 3rd place (with penalty) and a decimation of the run course record on debut. This *SEEMS* to be the new, more likely, predictor of success. LVL won immediately. Crowie and Frodo on their second efforts. Sebi on his third go.

Overall, there are just a lot of guys who fit the, "THIS is the year they finally break through!" - but who never do - pattern. Cam Brown and Andreas Raelert are the ones everyone knows. Certainly it would be hard to argue that anyone didn't see those guys putting together the pieces in any given year. And their track records of consistency are phenomenal. It's hard to look at either career there and think it somehow fell short.

The thing about Kona is that, now, it seems you really need to be transcendent in one discipline to win. Lange is obviously just a truly incredible marathon runner. Sebi is a phenomenal biker. Jan is really a transcendent swimmer and may also be transcendent as both a biker and a runner but he just never needs to show it. In terms of completeness, Jan is just a flawless triathlete. (Just like Javier. And like Alistair.) But regardless, whether it's Crowie (running), Normann (biking), Macca (running and, to a certain extent, biking), Faris (swimming and, to a certain extent, biking), Peter Reid (running), Tim (running), PJ (running), you just need to have an ace in the hole.

The ONLY recent champion I can think of who does not have this "transcendence" is Freddie Van Lierde. And Ben reminds me a LOT of Freddie. That year that Ben broke through and came 2nd (2014), he talked about shadowing FVL for much of the day. But if I was a betting man, I wouldn't bet on FVL - or an athlete like FVL - winning again. I think FVL had a remarkable victory, but I also think he was the beneficiary of timing - just at the end of the Macca/Crowie era and just before the beginning of Kienle/Frodeno era. With the impending addition of Lange - and perhaps Gomez and Brownlee (I'm reticent to crown them quite so early just because the list of ITU stars who were "obviously" going to crush Ironman but didn't is extremely long; I'll reserve judgement until they do an Ironman, and then - especially Alistair because he isn't known for racing well in the heat - they do Kona), I don't know that I expect another solid-across-the-board-but-not-truly-exceptional-in-any-one-discipline athlete (like The Hoff) to win in Kona. It just seems to require that one ace. And, of all the newcomers, Lange's ace seems to be the most formidable, just because it a devastating marathon always has been.

Anyway, speculation is meaningless. That's why we race. But this is at least how I see the race in Kona evolving. And I think that favors Lange - and athletes like him - as opposed to athletes like The Hoff (as well as guys like TO or Lionel).

Agree with most of your strengths for each athlete, although you can also add the swim (to the run) for 'former' PJ.