No backtrack at all. Virtual handshake complete.

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Swimmer
http://www.usprotri.com/LAMASTRA.html
http://www.bodyphyxinternational.com

Make that an ITU Grand finale without the Brownlees. We have Gomez in the field on Sunday in Tremblant as well as Frodeno. If we just had Docherty and Whitfield, and there would be every Olympic medalist in the last 8 years other than the Brownlees. As it stands, 1/3 of the Olympic medals from the last 8 years will be there. Not bad though.

On the Sanders, debate, the only reason why I did not have him in my top 3 is the ITU effect to T2. There should be around 20 men gettting on the bike together, and Lionel's biggest challenge would be to ride up to them riding close to solo. His best ticket is if he can end up with Rapp and Kienle and all these guys manage to pace off each other and move their way up. But I don't know how you ride up to Kienle if you exit the water after him especially on the first 45K of this course which is basically 98% aerobar and Kienle's aerodynamics will help him a lot. Plus Gomez and Frodo will be in the initial train with the real real real real Starky, unless he pops everyone instantly on the first 2 hills (which he may). But if Frodo and Gomez want, they could just use (real)^^n Starky for a while and pad their lead on the chasers. Looking at my swim wave, I don't think I'll be able to watch what happens when they leave T1 unfortunately, but hoping to see the pros coming back into town on the bike and the order.

Some interesting thoughts from a UK commentator

http://www.tri247.com/article_13217.html

yes but for the 70.3 race i think Gomez is a bit more like what Mola is right now in ITU, you would not really be 100 % sure if he will be in the first pack off the bike at the same time nobody would be the least suprised if he was to win .
In Itu gomez has a long history that one could not really think that there is not a 95% chance that himself, Alister and Johnny will not be in the mix till the end of the race if they are healthy ,as they do it over and over. In 70.3 gomez hasnt done that (yet).
I mean if anybody would have this aura of no 1 favorite for this weekend it would have to be Kienle with 2 wins in the last 2 years as he has a proven70.3 world champ record ( at the same time he might have his main focus on winning hawaii this year ) .
I counted 8 people i would not be too suprised if they would win in this race
I guess there is around 8 people that could win that race and outside kienle frodeno and gomez I am very interested to watch Rana who is the lightest guy in the favorite field proven over every distance.I think for Kona he is a bit too light and does not produce quite enough bike power to win, but for a hilly race he has to be a real thread for the title.

Men

1- Gomez
2- Frodeno
3- McMahon

Women

1- Wurtele
2- Hauschildt
3- Swallow

Who said he beat weak fields? My comment was that the fields he has raced in are small, so it's more of a head-to-head race, where a weaker swimmer like Sanders is chasing guys that are riding solo or in very small packs. In Tremblant you're going to have a large group of guys riding together up front which changes the dynamic substantially. As a Canadian I hope he rocks it and takes the win, my head says at this point his swim is too much of a deficit to make the podium. We'll see come Sunday!

Amazing talent and with time he'll probably be able to win any race he enters. However, while not weak fields, I don't think any of the guys he has beaten recently, or who has beaten him for that matter, is in anyones top3 predictions here so maybe expecting him to be up there this year already is a bit premature. Maybe he has improved even more now and maybe the race will play out to his advantage but I think some of the fast swim/runners will still come out on top this year.

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BA coaching http://www.bjornandersson.se

Well I can't disagree with somebody that has raced and beaten many of the people in the 70.3 champs!

Sorry if I took things out of context and you are right about the depth of field. My fan-dome is likely getting in the way of reality. By the way, I've got the Bills winning the Super Bowl:). Not really but sometimes blinders are bad for betting!

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Swimmer
http://www.usprotri.com/LAMASTRA.html
http://www.bodyphyxinternational.com

Bjorn,

How about posting your predictions? Would be interesting to see how a pro or ex-pro athlete see others from this side of the fence. ;)

Always hard to predict since so many things has to come together during final prep and on the day even for the top athletes, but here it goes:

Men

1. Gomez
2. Frodeno
3. Ospaly

Women

1. Hauschildt
2. Ryf
3. Morrison

In the mens race I think Dreitz is dark horse if he's in the same shape as earlier in the year and the strong riders get away and get a good gap.

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BA coaching http://www.bjornandersson.se

Men

1. Frodeno
2. McMahon
3. Kienle

Women

1. Vodickova
2. Hauschildt
3. Huetthaler

Probably just screwed over my favorites with that prediction but we'll just have to wait and see.

Good angle to think about. Over-analyzing this a bit for fun, but that group of 3 could probably propel Rapp to a Top 8 or so finish and would almost for certain bring Sanders to the podium but benefit Kienle in no way.

Yes we are fans and have to over analyze, pre and post race. On the Sanders debate/weaker field, he has beaten guys when they have had to race more or less solo against him solo. Sanders will more or less have to race solo for a while in Tremblant unless he can latch onto the likes of Rapp + Kienle (from what I hear, he could blow past Rapp with no disrespect to Jordan...but that is why we have Sunday vs just a paper analysis). Sanders nevertheless will be racing solo against a pseudo ITU pack. This is a different game from his previous victories. What if Sander and Frodeno has a 2 man race with no one around. Now would he have a better chance? That would be what the race would be like if he Frodeno was at a race like Steelhead.

Also, although I picked Kienle, there are some major differences from when he won Vegas.

1. Vegas bike course is substantially harder than Tremblant to the tune of 1000+ ft of vertical
2. Kienle did not tear up the Frankfurt course less than 2 months before Vegas
3. Vegas is hot and it favors a smaller athlete like Kienle (he was the smallest guy on the Vegas Podium). Tremblant will be cool and will forgive the bigger guys
4. There is not enough elevation differential early in the Tremblant course to break up the ITU style pack, whereas there is better "selection oriented" topography, early in Vegas

I am going to be a bit of a wuss when it comes naming my top 3 men & women in Tremblant. After a week of full-on, ITU Commentary work in jrs, < 23s, elites, para & age groupers my mind is a bit numb. I am very excited however to see such significant interest in 70.3 World Championships. Historic in that its the first time the event has come out side of USA. Historic in that I believe it is the deepest field, that has ever come together for a 70.3 World Championship. Not that there has not always been ten superstars in the past, but one could argue that the 20th to 30th men & women in Sundays' field are extraordinary athletes with significant resumes. I have seen 90% of the field race in person and believe there are many ways the races can unfold that will benefit individual athletes on Sunday. One thing I do know, is that rarely are superstars not a factor in big races like Olympics, 70.3 Worlds & Ironman. The athletes who have proven they know how to prepare for big races, rarely ever miss not being a major factor when it counts. The many names that have been tossed around on this Forum will almost certainly factor at some point on Sunday. Who is trying to win 70.3 Worlds as their priority race for the year vs those who are trying to balance Ironman and 70.3 or Ironman and ITU racing might be a 1% difference on Sunday when it really matters. I am glad to see the harder run course will be used making it more spectator friendly (and tougher for the athletes). As Lionel Sander's coach & mentor, I am personally celebrating already. I celebrate the "process" not the outcome.

The work that this young man has done to get into the World Championships and the lessons he has already learned in his young career are significant. A dozen warriors on Sunday will not get on the podium. That doesn't make them less incredible, simply that numerous factors may have played against them (from flats, to sickness, to someone else having the day of their lives).

Lionel will only get better in the next 12 months. His swim will improve, his incredible biking will become even more consistent and even his exceptional running will go up a notch as he becomes more better in the swim and bike. Make no doubt, that Lionel is going for the win on Sunday, but he also recognizes the honour of racing such incredible proven athletes as Javier, Jan, Brent, Kevin, Tim, Sebastien and the numerous athletes who are all their to have their own big days.

For those of us who enjoy pure, gutsy racing, I fully expect to see some guys absolutely wrecked on Sunday. 3hrs and 45 minutes of full on effort can only be done by a handful of people who are hungry, well prepared and motivated. I for one care less who the podium is, and more about the way they race. If I see a pure, hard from the gun, "honest" race, I will tip my had to whomever the podium is on Sunday.

As busy as my year has been, my car will be headed to Mt Tremblant later this week, to watch what I believe is going to be the most memorable 70.3 race in it's young history. Fingers crossed that the men & women who have earned the right to race at the World Championships won't disappoint.

Barrie Shepley
Voice of the ITU Triathlon Series & Lover of all things Triathlon

After Jesse's great comeback season and his impressive CR at Mont Tremblant - I'd love to see him make the podium at 70.3 Worlds!


Men:

1. Gomez
2. Frodeno
3. Thomas (would love to see Jesse make the podium!)

Women:

1. Hauschildt
2. Wurtele
3. Jackson

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Dreitz is obviously a fantastic cyclist and prob the pro with the best bike handling skills (what he did in the decent of mallorca 70,3 this year was amazing) but It would be a suprise if he could outrun kienle,.I would be suprised if he was not top 3 off the bike but cant see him top 7 at the end (this year but another one for the future)
.

This. I would love to see Thomas running for dear life at the end of this race for the W.

Well said Barry, looking forward kt a great pro race on Sunday, lots of
Athletes already in Tremblant, see you soon!

Ah hah!! Finally! I was wondering when somebody'd get around to him.

I say

JT

FTW!

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What are you people, on dope?

—Mr. Hand

Well said champions win races. They know how to prepare/race to win. Look at AB on the weekend in his post race interview he said he was feeling a bit off but it's didn't stop him attacking on the bike until a break stuck! While his brother, although an amazing athlete, seems to find news ways to lose championship races but is super consistent.

Google him??..Guess you've been living under a rock then. ? Or just spending all your time following the B.Bros ?:)
And who here is saying he is going to beat an Olympic champ and Gomez ?!? There is a third spot on the podium...correct?

I've got the Colonel down for the fastest combined bike/run split on the day. And fastest run split period. (1:08:59 :)
Swim???...mehh..:) Thats the unknown....if he shits the bed in the water no podium for him. IF he somehow hangs in.....within 4 min???.....for sure he has shot to place




.

I agree but there are a few more off the front riders this year and I think Dreitz is the best runner amongst them most times. It's not a given that Kienle catches them before the run if they get away together. But yeah, it's still a long shot..

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BA coaching http://www.bjornandersson.se

Tim reed....... Ripping through the field in budgy smugglers.......

I understand your shock and I do try to follow triathlon but with ITU being the best (ducks for cover) then also following IM and 1/2 IM there are a lot of 2nd/3rd tier races that are won by athletes who aren't going to make an impact at a championship race. Lets not focus on one athlete for a second and talk about Tim Don. Who has had a very successful ITU career he has also won a number of 70.3s this year but I think came 2nd in a race to Jan when good competitive turned up to play? Without that result would anybody be picking him for a podium. Actually Tim is another championship racer who can pull something special out on the day.

For me the best championship racer was Simon Whitfield. He wins at Sydney, Manchester and a silver in Beijing (which was really against the form he had shown that year) were amazing. It would be great to see him back and he certainly isn't too old yet.