Heat is also a big factor to consider.

Somebody who qualified somewhere hot like Texas will likely have a Kona time relatively close to their qualifying time.
A qualifier from somewhere more temperate like Wales where tolerance to heat wasn't a race factor may struggle in the heat and slow down more.

I got in with 9:23 on a fast course. I had a mechanical, so my Kona time was 11:04. Without mechanical, I was probably around 10:15 or so, so I would say an hour slower (for faster AGs) isn't hard to imagine.

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The other thing is Kona has no intermediate cutoff like the other ironman . when you look at the slower older age groupers splits some might not have ben pulled instead of walking the marathon in 7: 30 after an equally slow bike.

Interesting question going the direction of "predict my time".

Since I am sitting on a couch with busted ankle, drinking beer and eating chips its perfect time to make big plans and predictions.

I qualified on a very hot (100+) and windy day with bike course not unlike Kona (maybe a tad easier) with 9.29, but probably much easier run and swim. Since next year is my third year, I still hope to improve a bit, so I was thinking maybe sub 9.30 at Kona would be a nice goal. However, maybe sub 10 might be more realistic as I look at the AG times (40-44). Not getting that would ruin my perfect streak of sub 10h races (consisting of entire 2 races), which would kind a suck...So we've found the motivation.

I can attest to this. I'm not a KQ guy but did do Kona in 2013 via the lottery. I also did Texas that year. The times were remarkable close with a 12:07 at Texas and a 12:14 in Kona. For me the bigegst difference was the wind. Even though Kona 2013 is considered a "light" year it was still worse than anything I'd experienced up to that point. For me the heat was a never a factor in Kona. Texas was much much hotter/humid. After I finished Texas many people said Kona would never be that hot and they were right.

Triathlons are so condition dependent, it's hard comparing times fairly. You have to evaluate your performance in those conditions.

In my qualifier (IMWI) I went 59/5:08/3:21 (+8' transitions) Yesterday I went 1:02/4:50/3:40 (+6' transitions).

How do they compare?

Non wetsuit swim, and very, very congested swim with no ability to move up, over or anywhere. You just sat in and tried to find open water and relax. You swim time was almost predetermined by your placing at the start line. It was made worse by slower swim conditions, so the lead swimmers couldn't
open up" the field.

The bike wasn't too windy, but the wind was unfavorable (more headwind out than coming in) so it slower time a little and the tailwinds were cross tail winds which are high yaw, and less advantageous.

Run was HOT. enough said. The limiter for me was simply staying cool and drinking the maximum I could absorb which forced me to slow down. Goal #1 wasn't running fast, it was finding a pace I could sustain for 3+ hours and not end up falling apart.

The runners had a field day with the strong cyclists... and the winds weren't; strong enough on the bike to give cyclists a decisive advantage. No 40+ mph gusts on the decents to make a 140lb skinny runner sit up and lose 30".

If you qualified on a fast flat course, that race yesterday was a rude awakening.

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Could've sworn I saw people getting pulled from the swim yesterday.

yeah, i'm surprised at how cool Kona really is. we have family who live in Kona and whenever they visit us here (Mexico) they just MELT with the heat and humidity. i always thought our weather was quite similar but according to them it really is not.

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yes. i saw the woman who came in 3 seconds late being pulled from swim but she sure looked pretty happy about the whole thing. it was weird

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I qualified with a 9:20 at tremblant. I went 9:34 yesterday. 1 porta potty stop, three stops to take my socks off to squeeze the water out, and I walked through every single aid station. My bike power was 15 watts below target on the day. So my n=1 is pretty close to my qualifying time. It was hot as hell.

I looked at some of my age group peers who qualified at IM South Africa and their times were pretty identical...that course has a super wavy ocean swim, 6000 ft of climbing on the bike and very stiff winds for half the bike and the run is moderately hot, but also windy. It really depends on where you qualified and the delta. One year I qualfied at IMLP and was 3 min faster in Kona. Other years that I qualified I was slightly faster/slower (like 5 min) vs Tremblant and IMLP. The heat in Kona does not affect my run as I have usually raced there around 138 lbs. I don't generate a ton of heat to start off and run so slow that I'm producing even less than on an easy training run when I am running much faster (sadly)

I most probably qualified because it was hot and tough day and I managed to still kepp my reasonable and planned running pace (3.30 for marathon, did it in 3.28) which I planned as goal before knowing about the conditions. Had it been easier I might have gone few minutes faster but not much and I am sure there would have been more 3.15 guys passing me and not blowing up on a "normal" day.

Anyway, another year to get better at running (unless my ankle injury proves to be really serious, but then I'll just he enjoy the ride and dont worry about doing any time at Kona)

I qualified at IMTW with a 10:04. wetsuit swim, hilly technical first half of bike course, a hot run
I did 10:01:59 yesterday with a 5 minute (7:21 real time!) visit to the penalty tent for a blocking violation. I would say that sometime around 4pm when the high clouds moved in...conditions quickly went from torridly hot and slow run to a very comfortable run for guys used to the heat and humidity.

(For the numbers...my swim was 7 minutes slower in Kona, bike 10 minutes faster even with penalty, run was within seconds of what I did in qualifying..still needs more work to get the speed I'm starting to show in training into a IM)

There's a 2:20 cut-off for the swim and a 10:30 total time cut-off for the bike.

There is some good information somewhere comparing the difficulty of different courses. Kona is a harder course than many.

What I find interesting is the following:

THAT THE MAJORITY OF KONA RACERS ARE ALWAYS HAVING A "BAD RACE."

Here is how I figure....
A bad race at Kona will often put you in the top 3rd of your AG.
Yet- a similarly bad race at a qualifying event- would prevent you from qualifying in the first place.
(Example- I raced well at IMAZ13- 9:18 (4 out if 6 in my AG, 9:25 was the slowest KQ in my AG. I raced like crap in Kona- 9:53 48/288. Yet the Kona result was proportionally better!!).

Here are some explannations:
1) Many Kona qualifiers go to Kona unprepared to race. Maybe their "A" race was only a couple of months ago. Maybe they are more motivated to podium at a qualifying event than to finish in the top 200 at Kona. Maybe they "race" Kona for fun.
2) The Kona race creates more unpredictability than other courses. There are more temptations to overbike. There is more heat, more wind.
3) Maybe- being "average" in a field of strong athletes is unmotivating?


I am not sure why.
Personally- I have raced Kona 3 times. Each time I was very disappointed with my performance. Maybe even a little embaraced.
But each time I looked through the results I found lots of better athletes that did even worse.

I qualified at Texas in 9:26, and did 9:49 at Kona. Swims were very similar, but bike was 17 minutes slower at Kona despite pushing 25 more average watts (NP). At Texas I just came out of the water and rode straight past everyone for several hours, but with Kona there is so much more dueling/pack riding if you are not a sub 1 hour swimmer (and even then probably still a fair amount) that it's harder to get into a consistent grove (although perhaps there's some drafting advantage from that, I don't really know). Run was also hotter, hillier, and just ridiculously shitty you felt like you were melting. Run crowd support in Texas is fantastic whereas Kona is more a lonely battle from miles 10-25. I should note I was not disappointed with my time even though I hoped to be faster. Comparing my times to other athletes I know at or above my level, the differences between my times and theres were comparable to other races.

Thanks, those are interesting points! I suppose for a lot of AG:ers Kona is the prize itself, and the motivation to really push it is not as strong, because the podium is so far away anyway.

Apart from that I suppose it is more a question as Dev says of the delta in conditions between your q race and Hawaii! Still seems Kona is one of the harder races and that few people improve on their q time for a number of reasons.

I think the first one is certainly true, at least I am approaching the whole thing a bit like that. Better enjoy it, make it into family vacation, most likely my only time there, would of course love to go under 10h, but in the end does not matter that much.

One more thing, for many European athletes it is 24h travel and 12h time difference, this might have an effect, even if you manage to come relatively early.

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One more thing, for many European athletes it is 24h travel and 12h time difference, this might have an effect, even if you manage to come relatively early.

Sami[/quote]
I agree with this, having gone to Europe to race this summer. Also, the food is different, the temptations of being someplace fabulous have you less focused and just that 'quick' tour of the site your family wants to see drains energy, the routine is different, the weather is different, and, really, if you are not a pro, the motivation is different. Chrissie Wellington wrote about her race in South Africa when she first parted ways with her coach, and did some eating what looked and smelled delicious rather than being super structured and it made a difference. There is an old interview where Rinny makes fun of Wellington for being a robot in the days leading up to Kona, but she was crushing everything. Then Rinny also became a robot and look what happened. ..I will try to find that interview.

2012: Qualified in Penticton, 9:40. Kona 2012: 10:45 (Injured foot during the qualifier, 7 weeks earlier)

2013: Qualified IM Tremblant, 9:34. Kona 2013: 9:38

2015: Qualified IM Muskoka, 9:20...Kona 2016 TBD

Ken

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I didn't race Kona this year, but I did race it 2011-2014 and my qualifying times where a lot quicker, 4:20-4:25 at Eagleman and 9:47 - 10:08 in Kona.
Both courses hot and windy, but one was half the distance.
Hope this answers your question. Too bad they took away the Kona slots at Eagleman.

I have raced other Ironman courses and Mont Tremblant, Lake Placid, and Coeur d'Alene are about the same as Kona if they don't have good weather.
Kona can be a fast course if the wind is right on the bike and you don't mind getting knocked around on the swim draft.