Thanks for the update. Should be really nice if this weather holds up. Great start to the season!

by off shore are you talking Santa Anas like up in Orange County? How will this affect the prevailing winds on the back stretch back into town you think?

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Offshore flow isn't, at least at this stage, predicted to be a particularly strong one, meaning light seabreeze could kick in by late morning, but typically in that situation, that seabreeze will be pretty minimal.

---

------------------
My business-eBodyboarding.com

Coming from NH where it is still below freezing with a stiff 20-30 mph wind out of the NW-I will take anything with sunshine. Looking forward to the race

---

"If we could give every individual the right amount of nourishment and exercise, not too little and not too much, we would have found the safest way to health"
- Hippocrates, 460-370 BC

You'll be stoked. It was in the 90s out here last weekend, but now is back to normal (mid-70s here at the beach).

---

------------------
My business-eBodyboarding.com

Any intel on the water temps and the chop so far? Its highly variable and gets me worried everytime. 2012 was choppy and cold. 2013 was calm and 62 degrees. Missed 2014, so pretty anxious about it this year. I surmise that its probably going to be in the low 60s with mild conditions.

Did you read my OP? Water temps are mid-60s right now. If we have an offshore flow weather pattern, it will be glassy. The unknown is how much swell will be in the water. The swell only means that within 100 meters of the turnaround part of the swim, you'll undulate up and down a bit, but that's not to be confused with chop, which could only be caused by a strong south wind, again, at the turnaround only. The rest of the harbor isn't wide enough to get choppy unless it's HOWLING.

---

------------------
My business-eBodyboarding.com

Awesome. From what I've been seeing, next week in Oceanside it will be around 84 degrees for the high on Thursday, 81 degrees for the high on Friday, and 79 degrees for the high on race day. I love this race.

The offshore buoy has been at about 64F. Does anyone know the temp in the harbor? I'm toying with wearing my sleeveless (which iirc ST thinks is about as fast as a full sleeve), but it's hard to imagine that it would ever be warm enough there in March.

Don't know the official harbor temp, but generally the water is a few degrees warmer inside the harbor than it is at the offshore buoy.

---

------------------
My business-eBodyboarding.com

Good luck. Don

... and even a few degrees warmer for the later start waves due to all the immersional diuresis

Update 3/22:

"Slow warming will continue on Wednesday with
greater warming for Thursday and Friday as the high pressure aloft
combines with weak offshore flow. This could once again push high
temperatures in the 80s to near the coast with high temperatures in
the 90s in some inland coastal and western valley areas as well as
the lower deserts. Slight coastal cooling may begin on Saturday as
high pressure aloft begins to weaken. "

Generally, when high pressure starts to weaken after a hot spell, we get thick fog, so while it's too early to know, it is a possibility on Saturday.
There is also a "combo" swell coming for next weekend. The south swell component will be getting into the harbor there, so expect some undulation near the turnaround.

We will have an outgoing tide on Saturday morning, meaning you'll have a nicely-assisted outbound swim, but encounter a bit of resistance heading back to the swim finish. Water temp today here in San Clemente got up to 67 degrees, and is now at 65 early this morning, so water temps shouldn't be an issue.

---

------------------
My business-eBodyboarding.com

Oh, that explains sooo much.

---

Sharon McN
@IronCharo
#TeamZoot
Clif Bar Pace Team 2003-2018

Update 3/24:

"Thursday and Friday...high pressure aloft over California combined
with weak to moderate offshore flow...will bring well above average
temperatures with locally gusty northeast winds along the coastal
foothills. High temperatures along the coast could be 20-25 degrees
above average...into the 80s...with high temperatures in the
mountains and deserts 15 degrees above average. Some record high
temperatures are likely on Thursday and Friday. "
The high is forecast to start breaking down a little on Saturday, but count on it still being pretty toasty. Chance of some fog Saturday morning, but we'll know more later in the week. Either way, should be fairly light winds all day and be prepared for a somewhat hot day (by SoCal in March standards). Water temps will remain in the mid-60s all week with this hot weather and lack of wind.

---

------------------
My business-eBodyboarding.com

How fast do those temps rise from the start of race till about 10am? Not too worried since i'm coming from hot/humid South Florida where temps are already upper 80's but i'd like to know what we'll be dealing with at the start of the run

If it's not foggy, temps will increase pretty fast. It will get hot on the back half of the bike. Run shouldn't be too bad. Will likely be a bit of a sea breeze and you're running right next to the beach.

---

------------------
My business-eBodyboarding.com

Well to give you an idea, tomorrow, which has similar forecasted weather to race day is as follows:

7am - 54�
8am - 56�
9am - 61�
10am - 66�
11am - 70�
Noon - 72�

Should be a fast bike back to coast with tail wind. Earlier waves will have the advantage as the wind builds. Weather has been like this for several weekends.

if the winds build and they are a tail wind heading back to the coast, the last ~10 miles, doesn't that give the later waves the advantage of more wind pushing them? But I am not sure how the winds factor in on the back part of the course until you make the turn back to the coast. I figure the front of the course the winds should not be up at that time so it shouldn't factor in much at all. I only ask because I a the dead last wave to start. ugh!

On a normal day the west wind would build into the day, so yes the later waves would get more of a head wind heading back to the coast.

As for Sat, no way to predict yet. A few years ago we had a strong SA wind and wow heading back to the coast was fast. Looking at the weather doesn't look like that's the deal Sat...still looking very nice for people from out of town.

---

Train safe & smart
Bob

It's looking more and more like we'll have typical SoCal weather for race day. Some possible light marine layer clouds early, which can be good for the swim as there's no blinding sun for the return trip from the swim turnaround. Likely an early burnoff of the clouds on Saturday and temps on the bike in the 60s to low 70s, and then a light sea breeze for that last 8 miles on the bike (headwind), and a comfortable run (temperature-wise) with that sea breeze keeping it from getting too hot.

There will be a solid south swell in the water on Saturday, so expect some undulating at the swim turnaround, but nice, smooth surface conditions. Good luck everyone!

---

------------------
My business-eBodyboarding.com

I agree! Weather is looking near perfect and it should be a great start to race season. Best of luck to everyone racing!