Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens

Mar 22, 24 4:02

Post #1 of 229 (7188 views)

The start list was published yesterday on the IM website

2024 Athletic Brewing IRONMAN 70.3 Oceanside

Sam Long will have to race hard if he wants to win this race

Jelle Geens Belgian Olympic racer would be my number one pick,

There is actually other factors in the race, the IM series where the gap to the winner matters, and the qualification for the WC. Indeed, as Joe Skipper said, the WC winner gets 3000 points and even with a 8 minutes 20 seconds you get as much as from a win in the other 70.3 : 2500 points. Looking at last year, the top 15 in Lahti would have gotten more than those 2500 points. The only problem is you have to be in the top 3 to qualifiy which is not an easy feat for a typical IM athlete (like Skipper) and you have to be qualified before July to go to the WC[/font]

Several racers are already qualified so that may make it a bit easier
Those who are alreadly qualified who are supposed to get in the mix : Currie, Laundry, Quenet, Sharpe, Rodriguez Hernandez, Sanders, Long, Dubrick, Lopez, Trakic so even with a 10th place you may get a WC quali.

So that means that Lange, Skipper, Hanson, Lieferman may get a qualification yet not get that many points and not really figure in the race. Again, a TDF camera crew would be needed to show the races within the race but i doubt we will see it given even PTO was not able to deliver that !
On the other hand, there are more 70.3 races in the series than full so they may qualify elsewhere

Sanders has not really made it very clear that he will be part of the IM Series as he has only talked about Kona. Maybe he is waiting for his performance in Texas. His ability to perform on the 70.3 distance would be his strength and Sam Long (a slower swimmer than he is !) performance in Miami proved wrong those who thought/said that weaker swimmers could not be relevant any more.

Actually, the level in the IM Series may go down as two contenders Chevrot and Horseau are out of the Texas race. Horseau is racing South Africa which amazed me as he raced 4 times last year with wins in Lanza and Embrun and a 6th in Nice. Chevrot has stated a couple day ago on his IG that due to his infant daughter bringing back viruses/illnesses from daycare his training has not gone to plan and he will not race Texas.
For Europeans the fact that Cairns is the other earliear race make it more difficult and a financial bet as otherwise they have to race mid July (Vitoria), mid August (Frankfurt) and mid October (Kona)

Geens, Lange, Sperl (DEU) 14th in Lathi or Angert if he is able to get back to his 22 are my picks for the qualification. It is harder to pick for those early seasons races.

Last edited by: jcgiraSHT: Mar 22, 24 4:38

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 5:04

Post #2 of 229 (7138 views)

I always root for Joe Skipper, although I can’t remember the last time he did really well in a 70.3. He might be helped by having several other relatively weak swimmers and strong bikers around him. Plus being British the crap roads will not faze him ;)

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [cherry_bomb] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 5:28

Post #3 of 229 (7107 views)

cherry_bomb wrote:

I always root for Joe Skipper, although I can’t remember the last time he did really well in a 70.3. He might be helped by having several other relatively weak swimmers and strong bikers around him. Plus being British the crap roads will not faze him ;)

agreed that field size will probably be the most important factor here. how on earth do you have 70 pros spaced 20 meters apart? that's a pacechain that's literally one mile long.

there are some strong swimmers, but not a lot. guys like lagerstrom will always swim well here, and the ITU guys will comfortably be up front, but it would be better for them to have a kanute/royle/etc. maybe currie would be strong enough to swim up to the front and then stay away. sanders is interesting because i still reckon he can bike about as well as long, and has traditionally been a better runner (remember he ran a 1:08 on this course!), so maybe he could separate himself a bit. but i don't see huge separation between him and guys like long and laundry.

otherwise i imagine a long blob of guys exiting the water in a line and riding that way too.

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 5:32

Post #4 of 229 (7097 views)

81 dudes. There's going to be some packs on the bike and males interfering with the women's race.

I really think IM should consider limiting these pro fields.

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [stevej] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 5:38

Post #5 of 229 (7085 views)

stevej wrote:

81 dudes. There's going to be some packs on the bike and males interfering with the women's race.

I really think IM should consider limiting these pro fields.

yeah, this was the case last year, wasn't it? some back-of-the-pack men's racers were being overtaken by the women, and tamara (after a great-for-her swim) managed to stay connected with a good group on the bike. put her intro striking position on the run, for sure.

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [iron_mike] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 6:48

Post #6 of 229 (7008 views)

iron_mike wrote:

stevej wrote:

81 dudes. There's going to be some packs on the bike and males interfering with the women's race.

I really think IM should consider limiting these pro fields.

yeah, this was the case last year, wasn't it? some back-of-the-pack men's racers were being overtaken by the women, and tamara (after a great-for-her swim) managed to stay connected with a good group on the bike. put her intro striking position on the run, for sure.

Yeah it was similar last year. Though I think there were 70ish men??

It really messes up the dynamics with the womens race. The women at the front could really get a benefit by riding with a group of men. The women behind are then chasing a pack that they will struggle to catch. A man could cause one of the women to inadvertently get a penalty.... etc, etc.

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [iron_mike] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 8:34

Post #7 of 229 (6913 views)

iron_mike wrote:

cherry_bomb wrote:

I always root for Joe Skipper, although I can’t remember the last time he did really well in a 70.3. He might be helped by having several other relatively weak swimmers and strong bikers around him. Plus being British the crap roads will not faze him ;)

agreed that field size will probably be the most important factor here. how on earth do you have 70 pros spaced 20 meters apart? that's a pacechain that's literally one mile long.

there are some strong swimmers, but not a lot. guys like lagerstrom will always swim well here, and the ITU guys will comfortably be up front, but it would be better for them to have a kanute/royle/etc. maybe currie would be strong enough to swim up to the front and then stay away. sanders is interesting because i still reckon he can bike about as well as long, and has traditionally been a better runner (remember he ran a 1:08 on this course!), so maybe he could separate himself a bit. but i don't see huge separation between him and guys like long and laundry.

otherwise i imagine a long blob of guys exiting the water in a line and riding that way too.

The issues compound. Even just 50 riders at 20m is 1km long, actually more because 20m is the limit, so they'll likely be 21-25m back. Let's call it 1.1km. At 45kph that line is 1.5minutes long. That's not nothing to start the run even just 1 min back based on position. Let's also consider that with 35 seconds to pass (realistically 30 to not be so close to the limit) a weak swimmer biking onto the back of the field is looking at >25 minutes of passing to get to the front. In order to close 20m in 35s you need a 2kph speed differential. In order to close it safely (22m in 30sec) you need more that 2.5kph. That's around a 40w increase to just barely make it (45kph to 47kph). It's just not gonna happen beyond passing a few riders. Coming up on a group >10 is effectively going to be a wall. Unless I can get to the front and drop the group there's no way that passing 10 riders to gain ~30 seconds is worth 5 minutes at +40w.

That's to say nothing of the hugely increased risk of failing to complete a pass and getting a penalty.

Tangent - I think we're going to see bottles and hydration systems mounted so high up that they're effectively jersey bottles. all it a 'chest rest'

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 9:04

Post #8 of 229 (6858 views)

That's a gigantic men's field. WOW!!!

Jelle Geens sticks out, and although I think he is going to do great in the swim and run, not sure how good he will be on the bike; Oceanside is not an "easy" bike, and I don't see Geens as an uber biker.

I'm having a hard time picking a winner.

Last edited by: TulkasTri: Mar 22, 24 9:08

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [TulkasTri] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 9:07

Post #9 of 229 (6851 views)

This race is going to be an absolute mess. Skipper is going to go off on his pod after he gets fucked on the bike as mathematics explained above.

Lange, Geens, Sanders
Knibb, Findlay, Pallant-Browne

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Lagoon] [ In reply to ]

abundant_pasta_

Mar 22, 24 9:13

Post #10 of 229 (6828 views)

Isn't the draft distance at Ironman branded events still 12m?

It still will be undoubtedly a long line. But it does change the math a bit.

Matt Guenter

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [abundant_pasta_] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 9:29

Post #11 of 229 (6797 views)

IM uses Race Ranger for the IM Series races

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 9:41

Post #12 of 229 (6785 views)

Race Ranger can be set to any distance.

In fact, to think that at least three people assumed that 20 meters were somehow hard-coded into Race Ranger is nothing short of amazing.

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Last edited by: kajet: Mar 22, 24 9:42

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [Lagoon] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 9:45

Post #13 of 229 (6772 views)

Lagoon wrote:

This race is going to be an absolute mess. Skipper is going to go off on his pod after he gets fucked on the bike as mathematics explained above.

Lange, Geens, Sanders
Knibb, Findlay, Pallant-Browne

It was a huge men’s pro field last year, but Sam Long came into T2 with the lead group so it’s definitely not impossible to come from behind. I think the hills break groups up and stop it just being a procession.

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [kajet] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 10:27

Post #14 of 229 (6705 views)

wait you assumed that we (if i'm one of the 3) assumed. I only said that IM uses RR, and did think that the 'range' could be adjusted !
no big deal anyway !

Last edited by: jcgiraSHT: Mar 22, 24 12:28

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 11:08

Post #15 of 229 (6660 views)

Well since there will be about 6 to 7 minutes from first male pro to last out of water, that gives about 3 miles of bike road for everyone to get sorted out. And with 12m instead of 20m, there should be plenty of room for everyone. Some long lines of riders, for sure. But so what, it is a race and they are racing, some will blow up from holding that line, others will conserve at that pace and crush the run.

I just find it amazing that so many pros will race for so little money. Perhaps it is everyone's dream of the series bonus pool. After all it is not your place that matters, but your time from leader. So a guy getting 50th place could still get good points if the field is bunched up, even though he was no where near the daily prizes. Also early season and folks are chomping at the bit to just race..

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [mathematics] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 11:28

Post #16 of 229 (6627 views)

With a 12m draft zone and traveling 27 mph, riders are spaced ~1 sec apart (.99 seconds).

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [stevej] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 11:42

Post #17 of 229 (6595 views)

I'm actually excited by 80 men/40 women racing in the pro field. We can do races with thousands of amateurs. We can do races with 100+ pros. Put more time in between the men's & women's start. Enforce a lap out rule where if you're caught by a woman you have to drop back/can't repass. There's a lot of good athletes in each field past the top-20 & they deserve a shot to race top level competition. Oceanside is the unofficial kickoff of IM racing in North America. It's exciting that there's this much interest in the professional race.

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 11:49

Post #18 of 229 (6581 views)

womens: Knibb, Pallant-Browne, Brandon

mens: Currie, Lange, Laundry

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [monty] [ In reply to ]

abundant_pasta_

Mar 22, 24 11:51

Post #19 of 229 (6575 views)

As a new pro, I'll chime in.. there are less opportunities to race as a pro than what I've seen in the past. The depth of this field is a combination of easing standards to qualify to race professionally, the lack of early season races, and the lack of overall domestic 70.3 pro races this year. There are 8 70.3s in the US this year with a pro field available - so naturally, less races to choose from means that more people will head to one race.

The depth at the top of this field will be awesome to witness. There are ~25 guys that could theoretically have a shot at the podium, or at least a top 5.. which will probably cause some big risks being taken at the front and some big blow ups as a result.

Matt Guenter

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 12:33

Post #20 of 229 (6504 views)

Yes, they use race ranger, but they haven't changed the distance. Race Ranger I'm assuming is just set to flash at 12m.

Regarding Sam's chances in Oceanside, if he stands a chance he'll have to smash the bike and still have legs to put down an epic run since it's almost certain to be 12m, not 20m draft limit. Remember, IM released a recent rules update for 2024 and they said nothing about the draft zone going to 20m. I can't believe they'd just have some races be 20 and some be 12. Seems to haphazard for a professional slower moving organization like Ironman.

Sanders I wouldn't be surprised to seem him come on strong in Oceanside and St George and look to do well in Taupo too. Neither of those have any interference with Kona. Sadly, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him race totally flat and have some expected list of reasons. I hope he crushes it.

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 12:51

Post #21 of 229 (6472 views)

jcgiraSHT wrote:

wait you assumed that we (if i'm one of the 3) assumed. I only said that IM uses RR, and did think that the 'range' could be adjusted !
no big deal anyway !

That's fair!

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [abundant_pasta_] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 13:09

Post #22 of 229 (6443 views)

abundant_pasta_ wrote:

As a new pro, I'll chime in.. there are less opportunities to race as a pro than what I've seen in the past. The depth of this field is a combination of easing standards to qualify to race professionally, the lack of early season races, and the lack of overall domestic 70.3 pro races this year. There are 8 70.3s in the US this year with a pro field available - so naturally, less races to choose from means that more people will head to one race.

The depth at the top of this field will be awesome to witness. There are ~25 guys that could theoretically have a shot at the podium, or at least a top 5.. which will probably cause some big risks being taken at the front and some big blow ups as a result.

Don't worry people will complain if there are too many pros. Not enough pros. Not enough big names, or their favor gets beat by someone they don't know ( not a big name to them).

If you beat them as an age grouper instead of a back of the pack pro too.

So just do what's best for "YOU" everyone else is.

This is not the best top depth of the filed Oceanside has seen but still good talent. Overall Sam and Lionel are the best 70.3 triathlons on the list. I think Sam say this as an easy opportunity close to home due to no big names like the past.

Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 13:53

Post #23 of 229 (6360 views)

Just came across the start lists for this, absolutely stacked.

Very interested to see how Geens does, he's not been back to his best, (maybe since covid?)

He was one of the ITU uber runners and regular podium for couple of years.

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [jcgiraSHT] [ In reply to ]

Mar 22, 24 15:28

Post #24 of 229 (6258 views)

Who the fook are the dudes #41-80? They really need to bump up the entry barrier to become a pro. Kind of embarrassing.

Re: Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens [buzzsaw] [ In reply to ]

Mar 23, 24 5:21

Post #25 of 229 (6021 views)

Just guys who could win non-pro 70.3s whenever they want, dedicating their lives to getting better at triathlon. So much negativity for no reason.

I think that new pro hit it on the head. There aren't as many domestic 70.3 pro races this year. Most of them are tied to the IM Pro Series. Where do you go if you're too good to race AG but aren't winning races? Some people don't need the ego boost of winning a local 70.3. Some people have earned their pro card & want to race against other pros & find out how good they can get at this. But, sure, anonymously trash on them. 70.3 Maine & 70.3 Augusta will be the races for those athletes this year. But you can't tell all of them to wait & not race. Triathlon doesn't have the same constraints as a running track race with 8 lanes. Oceanside is gonna send off a couple thousand AGers. They can send off 120 pros. It's exciting that so many good athletes are coming together to kick off race season.

On the actual race: I think Sam & Lionel are two of the top 70.3 athletes in the field but I also think someone like Jackson Laundry is hungry, after missing out on the PTO Tour. He's not giving the IM Pro Series a serious go because he's not going to race fulls. He needs as many good results as he can get if he's going to earn a PTO wild card. I also think Jelle Geens is a huge talent. Sam is obviously in form rn. Unclear how sharp Lionel is since he'll have to be ready to roll at the full distance multiple times this year.

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