Marathon prediction time on you paste average time of 3 5k races.. but longer races are better predictors

So what is the longest serious run that you have done in the last year or two? a 5 kilo race has little to relate to a marathon.

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Kevin

absolutely it does... if you cant get below 21:20 in a 5k, you cannot break a 3 hour marathon. (But really the predictors want you at sub 19min)

I've done four half marathons as part of 70.3's. Over the last four years I've also run between 12-15 miles regularly

Running predictors are remarkable accurate--if you are well-trained for each distance. I crunched the numbers on some pro runners a few years back and they were amazing from 1500 to marathon. Not perfect, but pretty good.

So, to begin, I would use the 5K predictor to marathon and add 10-30 seconds per mile. Be conservative. Running a long marathon-paced run too fast killed one of my marathon attempts.
Alternatively, you could just take your long run pace and subtract 10-15 seconds per mile. Do it once and see how it makes you feel in the context of all your training. If you can't get out of bed the next morning--too fast. If you feel fine the next day, take 5 seconds per mile off each week until you think you have it.

98 percent of all marathon runners are undertrained for the distance, because it is absurd, and hope and wishing will get you to about 20 miles. If I was advising a first time marathoner that was not a mega-mileage, former college runner, I would have them work their way up to at least a 20-24 mile long run and then have them use that pace minus maybe 15 seconds per mile. That same 98 percent take off wishing they could run a certain pace and inevitably fall apart and SUFFER over the last 6-10 miles.

If you are not going to do you long run at least up to the amount of time you think you might run (not necessarily the distance), then I would strongly encourage you to plan on factoring in walking breaks into your race strategy. It is better to walk early and push off that near-inevitable moment when you have to walk.
If you want to walk on the edge and aggressively pursue your best possible time then know that you are highly likely headed for a rough day. Even highly-trained professionals crash and burn all the time and predicting marathon wins is pretty hard.

You're overthinking it. It's called a generic plan for a reason.

There's nothing exact in the plan your using, so searching for precise numbers that will be optimal for you, taking into account your past training and race history, injury history, age, etc.....well, you're just not going to find those specifics. Nor are you going find them here, when you tell us so little about your running. Pushing numbers and paces purely because they're part of a generic plan is not necessarily helpful.

Getting to the start line tapered and uninjured, with regular long runs in your legs and some weekly tempo/speed work is pretty much all you need to focus on. Consistency doesn't preclude flexibility. Listen to your body, it will advise you on how hard (or not) to push your training more specifically than the athletic equivalent of a serving suggestion on a breakfast cereal box.

Your HM will likely be your best indicator. If you can't wait until then to inform your training paces, just get a slightly faster friend to drag you through a solid 13 mile training run this week to assess your current fitness.

If your mileage is on the light side (under 50 miles/week), err toward more conservative marathon pace predictions. There's very little time to be made up in the first half of a marathon, but plenty to be lost in the last 10 miles.

[Running predictors are remarkable accurate--if you are well-trained for each distance]
I believe that. I went to 5 different sites and it spit back very different finish times based on the same info for my 5K.

I really appreciate the racing/pacing advice.

I do plan to run up to 22 miles, plus a few other 18-20 runs at a slow enough pace that it will match or exceed my total race day running time.

My training should hopefully inform and prepare me enough to know what I can and should do come race day. (pace i can accomplish, early pace to get me through the end marathon miles etc).

[You're overthinking it.]

100%

[Nor are you going find them here, when you tell us so little about your running.]

Wasnt looking for real specific advice and didnt want to bore anyone with lots of details about myself. I kind of already knew the answer to my main question about running race pace early in the training plan. That seems silly, if not downright dumb. I'll allow the plan to get me up to race pace by the end. I'd rather be running fast in 13 weeks as opposed to now and risking burn out/injury for going to hard too soon. I just wasnt sure if people handled things that way when doing marathon training, even if I kind of knew it.

I've used generic plans for 70.3's and am adept enough to adapt them to fit my ability and life, so I figure to do the same for this marathon plan.

I have not done any races since October and just been running and riding to stay fit. My run mileage has been between 25-35 miles/week since early April but will gradually build to over 50. But in think my fitness level is in a solid place (19:23 5K training run yesterday as a starting point assessment to inform the upcoming training)

[There's very little time to be made up in the first half of a marathon, but plenty to be lost in the last 10 miles.]

I appreciate how you said this. I just hope on race day, I am smart enough to not go too hard the first 10-13 miles.

There’s a lot I like about your post but are you sure about this math? This would indicated you do long runs a maximum of 45 seconds per mile slower than 5k race pace. That might only make sense if your 5k time was more than an hour.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Running lots of 5 kilo races (or training runs) in no way prepares you for running a marathon (at any pace).

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Kevin

The 5k's can be tempo efforts in addition to long easy miles. My best marathon time was done this way, the last workout 2 weeks before being 4 5k races 20 minutes apart (carlsbad all day 20k). I jogged between each race

So if you cannot run 5 km @ 4:16/km, you cannot run 42.2 km @ 4:16/km...that totally makes sense ;-)

More realistic benchmarks: sub 19 min 5 km 3 hour marathon, sub 18 min gets me in sub 2:50, sub 17 min sub 2:45

To the OP: if you have a few long runs under your belt try to see if you can do (without tapering) 16 km easy but not jogging, then 6 km at target race pace, 4 km easy, then another 6 km at target race pace. Whatever you can hold on the last 6 km is a really good predictor of what a realistic marathon goal pace can be.

Use your longest race result and find your vdot (easily googleable) and use the vdot table to predict your time

Thanks for the VDOT rec. The training pace chart from VDOT really helps. I think training at my current pace makes the most sense so as not to over do it and in time once I am ready to test again, I should be faster and can change my training paces according to the testing.

Thanks for the workout rec. A few workouts in my plan call for something similar, but not exactly.
More like, run 8-9 miles easy then run 6-8 at MP.

I like the idea of using yours better as marker test. Just need to figure out where in the plan to do it.
I still have that half marathon at 6 weeks out to help me fine tune as well.

Yasso 800s

Some people swear by them

Me? Fuck that guy

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Whatever pace top of zone 3 HR is

You have already gotten some good advice on here and not sure if it was said but I am not a fan of running "goal marathon pace" during long runs. You should run to your current fitness on what you can run a marathon on that long run. Then as you build fitness it gets faster and faster. It can be really demoralizing to try to run a long MP run at race pace 3 weeks into training only to realize you really only NEED to run goal MP on race day. I have been using a Stryd footpod and Steve Palladino plan and I test every 4 weeks to see where my fitness is so you can adjust training paces. If you are using pace/HR you can do the same thing with a race or other tests so that you are training to your current fitness and not a goal pace that may or may not be achievable.

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This right here. And run your longs on trails if convenient. You will fly on the road come race day.

Pretty darn accurate workout. Very difficult to execute

I would say this is a good resource for predictor times: Running race finish time predictor. Find out how fast you can run. (goandrace.com). It takes the average of 4-5 different prediction methodologies to give you a pretty accurate time based on performances at different distances. In my experience (approx. 30 marathons) I would say the best predictor is a combination of a Half Marathon time and how you are feeling during longer runs: 15 miles+.

For example, my current HM time is approximately 1:33, which is about a 7:06 pace. However, in my 15+ mile runs at 8:15 pace (which should be close to Zone 2 for me) I feel sluggish and achy past mile 12. This means I need much more time on my feet and I need to go a bit slower on long runs. A race predictor would say I'm in shape for a 3:17 marathon or so but in my experience my lack of muscle fitness on longer mileage makes it likely that I will struggle mightily in the last 10K of a marathon.

So, if your HM speed is where you need it to be (based on a predictor for your goal marathon time) I would focus on making sure you are consistent on your long easy runs in order to get to a point where you feel good after 2.5 hrs to 3 hrs on your feet, depending on your goal race time. For example, my goal race time right now is anything sub-3:20. So, my goal is to get to a point where I can run 3 hrs easy and feel good and strong. At the same time I am keeping up with speed and tempo runs and I have a tune up half marathon race about 3 weeks prior to my goal race. Hopefully this is helpful.

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

As far as pacing, I believe when the plan call for marathon pace/race pace, that would be your goal pace for your marathon. When I do marathon training I usually try to have one day of race pace training, largely to get used to running at that pace. For my long runs my pacing is 1:30 to 2:00 minutes slower than race pace. My typical marathon training week is Tue is speed work, Wed is middle distance - typically 8-12 miles, Thur is pace day - usually 800 or mile repeats, then Sat or Sun long run that includes at least 2 - 20 milers.

As far as race prediction, for a marathon, I find Yasso 800's to be a good predictor. This is a 10 minute'ish warm up then 10x800 with recovery time equal to the run time. If you run an 800 in 3:30, your recovery would be 3:30. Take the average of the 800's and that is a reasonable prediction of your marathon time. The predicted time would be if you averaged 3 minutes 30 seconds for the 800's your marathon time would be 3 hours 30 minutes.

Also, a reasonably good predictor from a half marathon to a marathon is to double your half time and add 10 minutes. So, if you ran a 1 hour 30 minute half, this would be a 3 hour 10 minute marathon.

Hope this helps