There is definitely a difference between making it in a few years, which he had the talent to do, and talking to sponsors 2 days after you quit collegiate cross country..and talk aout attending the olympics in less than a year.

let me guess, liberal arts.

Not disagreeing with this point. Its going to be a tall order if not impossible to do just because of the timing, races, qualification system, and fact that hes still very young for endurance athletes. I'm just shocked at the people who think he wont amount to anything at all after he wins worlds, there is zero logic in that. But I do give the kid credit for trying to make it even if he will very likely miss the mark next year.

well, the logic here is that he was the next great runner for collegiate running and after a couple bad races all of a sudden left to pursue his REAL favorite sport. He had a whole lot of talent there, too.

I'm not sure you know more about drop dates and their consequences than I do but that would be impossible to determine so I will leave that one be. As I eluded to in the other LV post - my main point is/was that we lack perspective and can't possible understand all the facets of the decision making process. My "drop date" scenario is just a simple angle to take and one of an infinite number of possibilities. And for the record, why would the comment about pro runners just be plain stupid - I was a runner first and I would have a tough naming 10 pro runners. I could easily name 100 pro triathletes though. That is success right there in a n+1 situation. And I said a betting man - I'm not saying which sport is bigger. There is a clear difference and the post would take too long to explain - being a college professor you probably lack the real-world skill to understand anyway so I will leave it at that. Lastly the idiom you are meaning to use is Sheesh not Geesh - get it right.

I am talking about making a bet on something, I am betting on growth not on absolute size.

Youve never heard geesh?

Edit: growth isnt a good indicator of longevity of a sport, of course triathlon growth is going to be faster there were far less people doing it 10 years ago than running. You cant have infinite growth with a finite market at some point the tri market growth will max out and you will end up with the same situation as running. You should be able understand that since you have those "real world skills" right.

My dad can name more pro triathletes than pro runners and he doesn't do either. I was a runner first - I can't even name 10 current runners but I can name over 100 current triathletes, probably closer to 200 actually. If you take the obsessed runners on letsrun they might be able to name 10 runners, but if you take the avg runner/avg triathlete I bet you the avg triathlete can give you more name in their sport.

First off the idiom is sheesh not geesh. Look up the definition of geesh if you don't believe me and I'm talking about making a bet. I really don't want to explain it to kid who is going to med school and will be so far in debt by the time he gets out that he would have ended the rat-race with more money as a janitor for Chipotle Mexican Grill. Just trust me on it. If you really want me to explain it to you I will but I would prefer to do it over the phone.

Well you are obviously too smart for me, I mean paying off student loans is so tough for physicians I see all of them driving around 1980 pintos because of it. Not to mention you have no idea what my financial situation is so your comment is moot anyways. Furthermore if you think most people put themselves through the hell of med school to just make money you're kidding yourself. I don't need you too explain anything to me since it seems the only thing you have managed to know is that there is a difference between sheesh and geesh. Which while slighty impressive doesn't really matter to the point at hand with growth of the sport. Which you obviously ignored since I am right. There will be no decrease in longevity of running it will continue to be, for lack of a better term, a "cash cow" and will still be around long after triathlon's growth rate has stabilized.

Finally we agree on something - there is more to this world than money. Fantastic!!! But in reality my real point is that this is what you get when people make assumptions. So leave Lukas alone. Let him do what he dreams. We can't possibly come to terms with the opportunities he has and we never will and I don't really understand why people feel the need to talk about things like this. Do we have nothing better to do with ourselves?

To your first point i'm pretty sure that is what I have been saying since the beginning of the thread?

To the second point because he is or soon will be a professional athlete, partially supported by money that we pay to USAT, and that puts him in a spotlight in the triathlon world in the US. Which means he's pretty much fair game to discuss.

First time writing in. Interesting reading the thread for LV.

I have had the chance to interview Lucas a number of times for our ITU TV SHOWS, have personally seen him race numerous times and have been to every junior and senior world championships in ITU history. Lucas is a very special athlete, who has the skill set to be something incredible in time. In 25 years of teenagers coming through, no junior has ever run as fast, as young as Lucas has. Does that mean he will continue to improve (only time will tell). Knowing his relationship with his triathlon coaches, his appreciation for his unique talent (only 5 kids ever breaking the sub 4 minute mile in high school), his dedication to his team-mates and the support I am sure that USA Triathlon will provide him, I would not want to bet against Lucas being a formidable force in the next decade.

Many runners have gone away to school and not performed incredibly well in their first season. Lucas got to Oregon at the end of a very successful triathlon season, having had a bike crash to recover from in the month prior to the Worlds. AND he just finished having one of the greatest high school running years in USA history. To me, that was a lot on his plate in just one calender year. I am not surprised he didn't perform up to his potential at Oregon.


Given a year to properly prepare for triathlon, and knowing the magic I have seen with my own eyes, I can imagine some incredible performances coming from him very soon. Whether he makes the 2012 Olympic team (a possibility) or not, USA Triathlon and the US Olympic Committee have identified a world-class potential (something every country in the world is looking for).

For those who are run/tri historians, you might remember Canada's Carol Montgomery making history in Sydney 2000 Olympics by qualifying for the 10 000m on the track and the triathlon at the same Olympic Games (historic). While an incredibly difficult task to accomplish, a kid like Lucas might just have the skill set to try something like this by the time 2016 or 2020 rolls around. With the exception of Portugal's Olympian Vanessa Fernandes, I don't think I have seen this much interest or debate around any other junior coming into triathlon in 20+ years.

I am not Luca's PR agent, but as a person who loves to see world-class racing, I think Lucas's decision this week, will add a new wrinkle to the elite racing scene in the next few years.

"I am not surprised he didn't perform up to his potential at Oregon."

this is the part i don't get. here is the video of the wisconsin invite, his first ever college race. off tri training. the fastest, deepest field this year outside of NCAA D1 cross champs.

it's an 8k race, and apart from lawi lalang - who's in another class - LV ran with the lead pack (maybe 6 or 8 guys) for half the race. then he blew.

this is the type of race he runs. he didn't run for 10th or 15th, he ran to win. he's fearless.

as good as 3:59 and 8:29 is, it isn't good enough to step onto the grass in his first collegiate race, off tri training, and beat the entire collegiate field in the deepest invite of the year in north america. yet that's what he attempted to do.

i was very impressed with this race.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

....I have nothing to add other than...WELCOME Barrie Shepley.

This is the man who has been a coach or media for every ITU World's going back to 1989 in Avignon. Barry has seen every significant in ITU World's in history. We should get Tim Carlson to interview Barry and give us his top 10 moments in ITU Worlds/Olympic history. Glad to see you posting here! WELCOME!

Hey Dan. I am sure that the cross country season that Lucas just finished was not what he nor his many fans had expected. Solid performances for most kids, but obviously it did not live up to the HYPE based on what he did in high school. My point, was the cross country season was never likely going to be A+. Nobody could have had the number of high school track races he had in his senior year, then rush right into a consolidated tri-season, crash on his bike and try to recover, win the gold at the World Tri Champs, then rush back from China to a cross country season that was already in progress. He simply didn't have enough time in 2011 to transition and regenerate from the incredibly year he had. Nobody in history has broke a 4 minute mile in high school and won a world gold medal in another sport in the same year. As good a runner and as competitive as he is, he needed a regeneration season and the average final finishing positions were pretty expected. Taking nothing away from the kid, because I am sure had he not turned elite in triathlon this week, he would have been a major college talent.

I think the criticism about Lukas is legitimate and fair. LV had arguably the best high school career in cross country and track and field, ever. His times were faster than Dathan Ritzenhein, Alan Webb (in the 2-mile), Galen Rupp, Chris Derrick, German Fernandez, Chris Solinsky...and the list could go on and on.

All of these guys performed much better as freshman in cross country than LV. In my opinion, the criticism does not stem from him having a rough outing at Wisco or his (much better but not spectacular) finish at the Pac-12 meet. LV did not reach his potential because he didn't give it a chance.

I also think part of LV problem is that he is very much an individual. Cross country is about running the race that will help your team win. If you're capable of scoring 1 point that's great but LV was not. Being fearless in this sense is running a foolish race. This is why the teams that have had success over the last 5 years especially have ran controlled but smart races. This is why Oklahoma State, Stanford and Wisconsin run in packs together. Additionally, 3:59 and 8:29 are times which should allow LV to finish in the top 10 in almost any collegiate race. His teammate Luke Puskedra who LV could not hang with at Wisco has PRS of 4:06 and 7:57 (3k) and has finished 5th, 21st, and 3rd at Nationals. LV is of the same pedigree and for whatever reason did not compete on the same level he did in high school. Does anyone really think Jeremy Elkaim is a more talented runner than LV? And he beat LV handily at Pac-12.

LV is obviously a big talent in triathlon and running and I wish him the best, however, if I'm a future sponsor I'm not sure I like the fact he ditched Oregon. His conflicting statements and actions absolutely show a lack of loyalty towards others. LV effectively ruined any chance his team had of qualifying for nationals. Had Oregon not given LV what I assume was a full scholarship they could have got someone who wouldn't have left at crunch time. It shows a huge level of immaturity to not finish the season. What is there to gain by leaving now as opposed to when the semester ends in December? If anyone has an answer to this I'd like to hear it.

" if I'm a future sponsor I'm not sure I like the fact he ditched Oregon"

well, i've sponsored a lot of athletes myself, and have been a keen observer of pros since the sport's beginning. from what i've seen of him, he has a ton of integrity, and if i were sponsoring athletes today, he'd make my final cut of athletes i'd rush to sponsor. i'm pretty sure he'll bring BIG interest to triathlon from footwear companies that have shunned triathlon (at least in the U.S.). if he's going to go the alan webb route and just forego eligibility, i would be pretty surprised if he couldn't sign a big deal with a big footwear brand.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Without knowing LV personally I can't say how much integrity he has or does not have. But I am curious why this decision happened now. To me, leaving Oregon with 3 weeks left in the season shows at worst a lack of integrity or at best a severe lack of maturity. What does it hurt if he runs two more races? To me, taking scholarship money leaves the student athlete with an obligation to the institution and the program.

LV won't have issues getting sponsorship, I agree with you there. But it's good policy to not burn bridges unnecessarily especially given the connection Nike and Oregon have.

Once again, we have no idea why he left, saying he lacks integrity is impossible to know because we don't know why he left. But an 18 year old showing a lack of maturity? Noooo really? I'm sure no one on here ever showed a lack of maturity as an 18 year old.

I disagree with that statement.

2010 Auto Qualifying Mark for D1 Indoor Nationals was 3:59 and over 15 guys hit that.
The Auto mark for 5k was 13:47...

That's the thing, you cannot just go to a conversion calculator and assume he can run sub 28 and be top 10. Jumping 3-5k more...add in grass...add in competition that is better than him...add in coming off a peak in September (which was for a sprint triathlon)... Lukas finished exactly where he should have finished in those races.

Again, I am all for Lukas's decision. It is great for triathlon and took guts to do at the point he did it. I just don't like how people are putting these unreal expectations when they don't understand the depth of where he will be racing. Its more than just 1.5k/40k/10k now. The jump from Junior triathlon races to Elite races are completely different.

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Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

this whole post was trash. he's kicked my butt before, and saying that he cant swim is uneducated. he rides well enough to win Junior Worlds, and then puts down a 15:33 run split...excuse me, but that sounds pretty freakin' fast for an 18 year old who hasn't reached his peak yet. I don't think any of that negative criticism was necessary.

It really doesn't matter to me whether he is a triathlete or runner, I'm a fan of both sports. What I'm concerned with, and the question that not many people are addressing is: why did this decision need to come with less than a month left in the fall semester? why did it take guts? is this a selfish situation?

To posters who are saying that we don't know the facts so we can't question the integrity of leaving mid-season. What fact is going to make this an alright decision? His grades being low...him not being the best...being homesick? Plenty of people decide during their freshman year that their school choice or going to school in general is not for them. When has anyone ever given the advice to leave without finishing? Personally (and I understand this forums joy at getting a top prospect back in the triathlon) the question we should be asking is why did he have to leave now instead of waiting two weeks? Are two weeks really going to allow LV to qualify for the 2012 Olympics?

And my argument was not that LV is one of the 10 best milers or 10 best 3k runners in the NCAA. It was that his credentials should make it possible for him to finish in the top 10 at most races. If you see a guy whose PRs are 3:59 and 7:58, who is a footlocker and NXN champ you expect them to do well. Granted LV did complete a block of triathlon training BUT LV had always mixed triathlon and running training and had success in running (see quote).

From a LV interview:

What kind of summer training did you do in high school to build your base (mileage, cross training)?
"My training consisted of swimming, biking, running. This is a lot different than what high school runners do so I cannot really relate. Per week Average: 20,000-25,000 yards swimming, 110-130 miles biking, 30-40 miles running. The endurance and strength work is done in the pool, while speed and speed-endurance is done on the bike and run. This means that unlike typical triathletes I don’t bike over 40 miles at a time but it’s usually fast. Running is usually always some kind of workout unless it’s a shake out run. Swimming is where the recovery and endurance work is completed." -LV


The point I made in my previous post is that guys with pedigrees lesser than LV have done exceptionally well in the NCAA.

Craig Lutz is a great example. He came into Texas with prs of 4:09 and 8:52. He has finished in 15th place at Wisco, 4th at Big 12, and was 3rd in the South Region. Jeremy Elkaim is another good example. He came into Oregon with prs of 4:12 and 8:46. He finished 20th at Pac 12, 2 spots ahead of LV.
I am not sure where you are getting the sub 28 number from as no one will run, including Lalang or the top guys at any XC meet.

"why did this decision need to come with less than a month left in the fall semester?"

i think we know your position by now. some of us are willing to give the kid the benefit of the doubt, because he is a kid, and because we don't know the circumstances. you apparently are not interested in knowing the circumstances surrounding his decision; not these circumstances, nor anything else, will not alter your view. do i have this about right? please explain yet further if i misunderstand.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

There is no reason to be hostile towards me. Yes, I have a position. This is how you discussions generally work. You present a position or question and hope that someone might address some of the points you've made.

And I am interested in the circumstances surrounding his decision. They certainly could alter my views. But we'll probably never get circumstances and all the evidence points towards LV just wanting to move back to triathlon. I'm not debating LV worth as a human being...just an action he made. I think Slowtwitch and Letsrun both have hard times viewing this objectively as they each have a dog in this fight.