Surprised nobody reacted here, so little bump. Maybe it was already mentioned in another thread?

I guess it's pretty much in line with what we've seen so far for 2023 - so not really surprising anyone?

It's interesting to see Texas, Frankfurt, and Cairns are getting double slots for the men. Those should be the best chances to qualify - by far - if one is willing to fly there. Especially Cairns since it's a much smaller race than the other two.

Here are my estimates of how many slots based on last year's results:

Cairns
M20 1
M25 4
M30 7
M35 7
M40 7
M45 7
M50 9
M55 5
M60 3
M65 2
M70 1
M75 1
M80 1

Frankfurt
M20 2
M25 4
M30 7
M35 8
M40 8
M45 8
M50 7
M55 5
M60 3
M65 1
M70 1
M75 1

Texas
M20 3
M25 5
M30 6
M35 7
M40 9
M45 8
M50 7
M55 5
M60 3
M65 1
M70 1

ciao Marco ;)

I agreee with you and made the same consideratios, but you also have to consider other factors like the time of the year and the course that suit you best, and how big the field of competitors is.

I do not know what happened in Portugal because I was not there, but in Italy (Cervia) there were very FEW rolldowns for Kona for mens, while there were quite a lot for women for Nice, and the slots for women were more than double. The crowd at the slot cerimony was so huge the presenter said "I wish I saw all these people at the race briefing". There were just 25 slot for men as you know, which where half of the ones usually available. I ended 8th in my age group which had 3 slots. All the first 3 athletes accepted...while last year in Cervia I know mates who ended in 15/20ish position in the same age group and then were called for a slot for Nice.
So, my quest for Kona will go on and probably I will take a shot to Frankfurt to see if I can have a better chance, as I share your considerations: the regional championship races have more slot thean others. But I guess other people chasing the Kona slot will have the same idea...
Was also considering Lanzarote (30slot, but smaller field), but the course (mainly bike elevation) and the time of the year (schools calendar, work assignments) are not a good match for me.
I also let down a Taupo'24 slot endind 3rd in my AG recently in a 70.3 because I prefer to have another chance to qualify for Kona, and the two races are for many people incompatible (huge travel cost for us europeans, and I have already experienced a far away 70.3WC in St George).

I think that because of the fewer slot available (50% of the filed already qualified that refused Nice for Kona) and considering the fact that you can compete in Kona just once every two years, all this made it more difficult than before. Yes, some will be already qualified, but there are always strong contenders for the very first places in a numerous AG like mine and as far as I could see very few people let the Kona slot down.

They are all valid considerations, it's important to choose a course that suits you and when you'll be able to perform your best.

I have no doubt, as you say, that Frankfurt will attract a lot of very fast athletes and it's a fast race.

As a European the best chance to qualify is to travel outside Europe, it's been like that for a long time, but it's expensive.

IM Italy has to be one of the most difficult races to qualify worldwide, it was like that even pre COVID.

I'd say it's also important to choose a race you'd enjoy having done even if you don't qualify. Possibly a beautiful race and not one of those highway based IM. Each one will make their choices.

If you can afford to travel to Cairns that would be the best chance since it's half the field size of the other two races. But Australia is far!

The maths of the slot distribution makes it so that, if you're in a popular AG, double the overall slots means more than double for your AG.
Also, more slots means more chances of roll down.

This makes it difficult to choose between a popular race with a lot of slots (such as Frankfurt) and a tougher less popular race with less slots (Lanzarote).

That's why in my estimates you can see 8-9 slots where you'd have seen 2-3 in other races.

And Sudáfrica why not? Only 25 slots

Are you asking me why South Africa isn't getting more slots? No idea, you could ask Ironman?
I'd imagine it's because it's a relatively small race. If it had more slots it'd be a great place to qualify (tough race though!)

Holy cow, Texas has 55. Well, I'm racing IMAZ in 3 weeks which will have 2 in M55-59 and I am registered for Texas. So if AZ goes sideways I got that going for me.

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
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TX is the North American Championships again which typically have double the slots, but since a lot of Kona 2024 slots have been handed out I imagine it will still be pretty competitive and they won't roll too deep. Plus, it's the first full Ironman in the Pro Series so I imagine it'll be packed with fast pro's and AG'ers.

I know, that's why I signed up for it last year but then deferred using the Flex 90 program to 2024. There are 5 slots in my AG, that's plenty.

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
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Not sure I agree, e.g. Hamburg gets 30 slots and is not a regional AG Championship, like Frankfurt.
Frankfurt has notoriously attracted the fastest german and European AG athletes. Much fast competition...

What is your estimate for Lake Placid?

Estimate would be (based on last year's number distribution for the men)
M18-24 1
M25-29 3
M30-34 3
M35-39 4
M40-44 4
M45-49 3
M50-54 5
M55-59 3
M60-64 1
M65-69 1
M70-74 1
M75-79 1
with the first re-allocated spot (ie. 75-59 does not take one) to M18-24, second re-allocation to M60-64.
Roughly 1 spot for every 45-50 in the age group.

Lake placid
M20 2
M25 3
M30 3
M35 3
M40 4
M45 3
M50 4
M55 3
M60 2
M65 1
M70 1
M75 1


To be honest all the races at 25-30 slots don't change too much. It just varies a little based on the pecking order of the AG based on how many finishers you have.
Obviously it's an estimate and some AGs have very similar number so it's easy for one to rank up or down and gain or lose 1 slot.
With 20 slots popular AG (M35 to M50) can expect 2-3 slots. With 25-30 slots it's 3-4. America is more biased towards older AG, Europe towards younger AG.

You have a point and it may end up being true but it's difficult to say beforehand. Hamburg is also a big and popular race with a lot of fast triathletes doing sub 9. They both had around 1900 men this year.
If you're in M25 to M55 you would have to be approximately the top 1.3% of your AG in Hamburg but only in the top 2.6% in Frankfurt. That's double the chance. And I'd think a lot more chance of rolldown in Frankfurt.

I'm curious why my estimate is different from yours, and specifically why you didn't assign 1 to M75 and 2 to M18-24.

I did allocate one spot to 75-79
18-24 was a percentage call. My calcs have them receiving 1.603 slots. I have them at 1 but the first to get a spot that will be re-allocated if that happens.
60-64 was 1.56 slots and they would have the second re-allocation.

Frankfurt this year is too late 18th August

I guess Frankfurt in mid August would be an almost certain "no wetsuit" swim?

bumping this as I notice slots increased for races this spring/summer

Not a huge jump right? 30 instead of 25 for most non championship?

Several have 50 now (Placid, Austria, Cairns has 55)

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

Replying in general to the post- and pardon my ignorance. Some of these races are sold out (placid is) but still have Ironman Foundation slots and such available. Are you still eligible for a Kona slot if you race under that registration? I haven’t signed up for anything, but curious.

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Frankfurt went from 55 to 75 slot - wowza! Happy I swapped over from Hamburg :)

Considering the same. The website that has the data for the swim-lake actually mentions that August is colder at 23 degress on Avg vs 24 degrees in Juli.

That calls for a wetsuit swim! But with summers getting hotter and hotter each year, so who knows - prepare for both.