Fast bike times are very likely. But with that and the heat (seems like it will be warmer than previous years), it could be carnage on the run course.

Sub 8? No way.

come on people

are you guys here? NO ONE goes sub 8 here tomorrow.

Weather has been brutal with high winds, heat etc and the "local" temps are 90+ tomorrow.

Alii drive will be a sauna and the Queen K will be an oven.

FWIW, when I raced Kona 2004, they were claiming how conducive conditions were going to be & what a fast day was on tap...& they were saying this while we were in the water, right up until the gun went off. <<THAT day, I believe (9) guys (NINE!) broke 5-hours on the bike :-)

There are a 100 different weather patterns between Kona & Hawi, so I'll believe the conditions are going to be good when I see it.

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Brian Shea
http://www.PersonalBestNutrition.com
Open-Water/Masters Swimming at the Jersey Shore:
Monmouth County NJ Ocean Swim/Masters Workouts

+ this
The forecasts are ALWAYS complete bullshit. Also keep in mind that the course covers so much territory that the weather is very different at different points on the course and also changes throughout the day. I always love it when some blogger is posting from Lava Java about how peaceful it is in Kona when it is 110 degrees in Kawaihae with +20mph winds in Hawi.

Also, FWIW, I am pretty sure Luc Van Lierde went <8 in 1996 but with 6 min drafting penalty, so it is not inconceivable.

No idea if records will be set tomorrow, the forecast means nothing.

I will say that one thing nobody seems to bring up when talking about times and records is the fact that in the last 10 years the race has been changed since the pros no longer start at 7am. In Kona, five minutes can make a huge difference when you are riding up by Hawi. Starting ten minutes sooner can have a drastic effect on times as the wind tends to pick up as the day goes along. One thing I suspect is that until/unless we get an overall generally calm day, it is probably going to be a while before we see women's age group records fall now that they are starting later than anyone ever has.

I like to think of '04 as the last year that the environment played a huge roll in the race outcome. Long over due for a year with a fastest bike split of 4:40. Last year was probably the closest.

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36 kona qualifiers 2006-'23 - 3 Kona Podiums - 4 OA IM AG wins - 5 IM AG wins - 18 70.3 AG wins
I ka nana no a 'ike -- by observing, one learns | Kulia i ka nu'u -- strive for excellence
Garmin Glycogen Use App | Garmin Fat Use App

I don't think we're going to see a sub 8 but only time will tell. The race is shaping up to be the most exciting one in the past few years. There are some real movers and shakers in the field. I'm on the edge of my seat to see if Frodo can take Sebi. If Tim Don will charge through the field during the run. Whether or not Rinny can come from behind or somebody else will have the race of their lives (Rachel Joyce). 2 weeks ago I was convince this was a foregone conclusion Jan and Ryf for the win.

Now after all the hype this week, BWB interviews and local sightings of competitors I'm thinking it's anything but. This is Kona afterall.

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"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

I disagree. If conditions are good, Kona is a fast course. The heat is not as bad as some of the conditions that a sub 8 has been achieved in.

Frodo has what it takes. If conditions hold nicely, I could see him winning and to be the one that does the first sub 8 race in Kona. I don't know if anyone else has the speed that he does. If it's going to be anyone, it's him.

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New Training/Racing Log - http://www.earthdaykid.com/blog --- Old Training/Racing Log - http://colinlaughery.blogspot.com

I agree with your comments. I think Angela Naeth may have a huge race. I expect her to be somewhere in the top 3. Pure speculation on my part. Rachel Joyce will be in the top 5. The men's race could be very tight. Can't wait to see how it all unfolds. I will miss Farris racing Kona.

I don't think Frodeno would want to suffer more just to go sub 8 unless he has to go sub 8 to get the win or he gets a big bonus check for going sub 8. He doesn't have to prove to anyone, or himself, that he knows how to suffer or is an all-time talent. He's far enough down the line in his career that if he has a big lead in the marathon I think he'll step off the gas a bit in the final miles to ensure he doesn't blow up and to enjoy it a bit more. Of course, it would be thrilling to watch him push it to the brink in the final miles to go sub 8.

So can anyone force him to go sub 8 to get the win? Does anyone know if big sub 8 bonuses are on the line for these guys?

I don't know what it's like in Kona/Waikaloa/Hawi right now, but here on Oahu we had one of our hottest summer's on record, but temps and real feel have finally dropped the last 3.5 weeks or so. Pretty sure Kona will be hot as always though...they are farther south than us.

In 1996, Luc van Lierde went 8:04 with a three minute "blocking" penalty, so extremely close. That was a very clam day with the winds on the bike, but then veteran racers like Allen and Welch commented that the still air made the heat that much more oppressive on the run.

there is no reliable weather for the wind and condition on the course. tomorrow could turn out to be calm and fast... or it could turn out to be devastating tradewind and we will have no clue as of right now.

until you're on the course tomorrow...we won't know.

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Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
Jonnyo Coaching
Instargram

Supposed to be SSW winds tomorrow, which usually means more hot and humid than usual. As you know, there's a big difference between light trades and south winds. I guess the blessing is there's more likely to be afternoon showers. It's heating up here today.

Dammit...you just ruined my weekend. :)

I'm about to go for a two hour run on the Queen K. I'll report back how much it sucks when I'm pau.

x2.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

  I've been here a lot either racing, watching or training and despite all the comments from others on this thread about not predicting race conditions, the forecast here is not that far off typically than what the day is. What people often do not look at is the wind conditions on "all" sections of the bike throughout the day.

The forecast tomorrow for wind is as follows based on the NWS forecast which is the most accurate from my experience:

- around 7am in kona the wind will be light/bit from north, virtually calm so swim should be quit flat. Tide is also low and in between tides which "should" help me swim a touch quicker
- leaving on bike there will be little wind (bit from north but not much) and there will be virtually no wind heading past waikoloa where you could see a bit of head wind, but should not be much
- light east wind early on section up to hawi which is not a head wind, but also lighter than normal
- wind shifting to north/north east up there and also same as you come back to waikoloa so later you get up to hawi the more the wind may effect you but it will help you more coming back than those up there early….unusual for this race where it could help people riding later in morning for a change.
- it will be more west as you get closer to kona which is also not a head wind and will be tailwind last 15k of bike

YES - the run will be a cooker, but the bike should be stupid fast tomorrow.

Come on here on Sunday and tell me how wrong I was. Until then, any wagers welcome :)

Just putting this down there:

http://www.wunderground.com/us/hi/kailua-kona

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'It never gets easier, you just get crazier.'

I ran into Joyce on Monday at the pier and for some reason, to me she seems very relaxed, but at the same time very focused and more fit that previous years.

I wonder how Ryf will respond to being a favorite vs. being the newcommer.

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TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

Hot as hell on the Queen K today. Light winds from varaiable directions. Steady headwind running down into Energy Lab. Fast biking conditions, brutal for the run.

Of course this has little to do with how the weather is in Hawi and even less to do with how it will be tomorrow.

x3