Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now.

Oct 21, 06 7:36

Post #1 of 40 (4620 views)

Weather conditions according to weather.com are favorable with temps in the high 70's, light winds at about 7 mph and dropping pressure on overcast conditions. If anything, we are going to see some rain as pressure continues to fall.

Based on looking at the course map and considering the winds are from the west/North/west and swinging around to being from the north, the groups that hit the turnaround point first may have a tail wind on the return from Hawi. This could favor the stronger runner. It also may negate much of a strong cyclist's ability to get away from the lead group. Everybody rides well with a tail wind.

If the leaders come of the secnond half of th bike from a tailwind they may have fresher legs. Then it is a running race. That probably favors Al-Sultan over Stadler.

Very, very exciting. We'll see....

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 7:48

Post #2 of 40 (4550 views)

Wether radar shows no precipitation over the area now with scattered showers moving off to the west directly off the coast and to the north.

Typically in tropical environments rain develops in the afternoon.

Man, I'm just sitting here waiting for the live webcast to come up....

This is huge.

It will be between Stadler and Al-Sultan I think....

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 7:57

Post #3 of 40 (4502 views)

I wish Timmy was racing today.

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:04

Post #4 of 40 (4461 views)

Anyone know aprox. what time the webcast is supposed to come up (central time zone)?

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [iheartfestina] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:08

Post #5 of 40 (4443 views)

10:30

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:09

Post #6 of 40 (4431 views)

Forget those two, because Macca is going to run them down and do the first sub 2:45 marathon in years! Can't wait to watch it happen live.

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Slowtwitchitan] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:09

Post #7 of 40 (4427 views)

11:30 here and we're counting the minutes.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Ironwoof] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:16

Post #8 of 40 (4379 views)

We were just discussing how good that would be for the sport. It would be a sensation if a personable, fun loving, Greg Welch kind of fella like Macca brought in the upset over the favorites.

Even though Stadler and Al-Sultan are friendly fellows (I've met Stadler who was gentle, kind, graceful and quiet but I've never met Al-Sultan, he strikes me as nice guy...) I think it may be easier for the non-European to identify with a Macca-type character.

The Euros always seem to carry this imposing allure of aloofness.... Macca is a just a fair dinkum guy!

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Ironwoof] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:17

Post #9 of 40 (4372 views)

Yeah, Macca gets my vote...no particular reason other than he is my favorite of the favorites. Go Macca!

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:18

Post #10 of 40 (4370 views)

He's also never too short of words or a smile, something that can't be said of most Euros when speaking English.

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Zinc] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:20

Post #11 of 40 (4358 views)

Exactly.

I know this sounds utterly trite and stupid, but I wonder was he's wearing this year on the run?

The reason I mention that is that he has previously worn these long-ish running singlets that aren't flattering in photos and look kind of, well, dumpy...

I hope his race uniform is sleeker this year to make for better photos, especially if he wins. We have to look at that finish photo everywhere for a year!!

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Zinc] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:21

Post #12 of 40 (4344 views)

It will be interesting to see how the IMlive site handles it when a million or two hits to the live feed hit at the same time...

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:22

Post #13 of 40 (4336 views)

I'm not a fan of Stadler, since that outburst last year out in the lava fields. You tend to see someone's true colors when they are under pressure. I believe he also made some stupid comments back in Germany about not being voted athlete of the year and upset that it went to somebody else (who I believe was handicapped). Not too classy! I am a fan of Faris, he seems very down to earth.

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:27

Post #14 of 40 (4290 views)

ROFLOL! Wasn't there a contest for one of the athletes (Luke Bell maybe?) for Kona or 70.3 champs? Too funny because I know soooo many people, fast and slow, that talk more about the outfit than the training or race strategy. Agree with the analysis as well!

Three minutes to go!

I miss you "Sports Night"

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:28

Post #15 of 40 (4286 views)

As long as those "dumpy" race duds run a 2:4x marathon...I don't think we have any right to "complain".

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Ironwoof] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:32

Post #16 of 40 (4258 views)

I hear you and I'm aware of that. No disputing that.

I see him as a very human figure though. He may not be as poised as others, but I see a lot of myself in that. One thing that makes a person a fan is that they identify with a prominent figure. I identify with Stadler's frustration and behavior sometimes. It may not be 100% polished and professional- you're absolutely right. But he is a guy like you and I.

Man, there have been times when I've wanted to throw my bike, but I figure, "Whoa, wait a minute... I own a bike shop. If someone saw me throwing a tantrum that would reflect poorly on myself and my business...." So I don't do it.

There was something about watching Stadler trying to tear his tubular off his rim with his teeth that made it feel so..... personal. I'll tell you, I felt like I got a flat while leading Kona. It hurt.

Ever since then I just wanted to see the guy come back and exorcise the demons. Maybe he could find a new grace or composure in victory.

Also, I have to confess, the best training ride I ever did in my entire life was with Ironman winners Scott Molina (another guy I am a big fan of) and Normann Stadler. That was a big deal to me. I was utterly starstruck on that ride. It was so cool. Been a fan ever since....

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [TriBriGuy] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:39

Post #17 of 40 (4227 views)

True....

I wonder if they realize the due in the middle's mic wasn't live....

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:40

Post #18 of 40 (4225 views)

Welchie's been hitting the Twinkies....

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:42

Post #19 of 40 (4203 views)

I think the Welch/Newby-Fraser team is more polished than we're seen before.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:51

Post #20 of 40 (4162 views)

The volume from the broadcast is a little messed up eh. I have my volume maxed out on my computer just to understand what they're saying.

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:52

Post #21 of 40 (4156 views)

I could have forgiven the bike throwing, because in a way that showed me just how much he wanted, maybe. however, the other comment was stated when there was no pressure/heat of the moment, that was well, who he perhaps really is. I hope not, but that is what my gut tells me. Maybe this year, once adversity strikes Normann, he will rise to the occassion and redeem himself.

It's like Mark Allen recently said in an interview w/Bob Babbitt, "Normann just needed to change the tire and get riding again."

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 8:56

Post #22 of 40 (4135 views)

I can tell you from living here that you can't put too much stock into the wind forecasts of what it is doing in Kona and what it is doing out on the Queen K. If the wind direction holds it will be a slight headwind on the way out and the slower riders will get the double whammy as the wind shifts to the west and southwest which is the hotter Kona wind that will be in their faces on the way back in. It was so hot and humid in Kona yesterday that I couldn't even imgaine having to run a marathon in that.

http://bigisland-will.blogspot.com/

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [will] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 9:11

Post #23 of 40 (4065 views)

I've only been to Kona twice in my life but I did pick up on the fact that the wind swings around sometime in the early afternoon.

Keep us up on the local perspecitive if you can throughout the day....

Are you at the race venue?

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [will] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 9:12

Post #24 of 40 (4062 views)

Is there any way to save this download to my pc so i can watch it later ?

Re: Kona: Current conditions-How the race might develop based on what we're seeing now. [Ironwoof] [ In reply to ]

Oct 21, 06 9:12

Post #25 of 40 (4060 views)

Yeah. I hear you... You actually make a good point.

Dave Scott on the tube now. I think that guy is cool.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

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