Never

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My Strava | My Instagram | Summerville, SC | 35-39 AG | 4:41 (70.3), 10:05 (140.6) | 3x70.3, 1x140.6 | Cat 2 Cyclist

You say that based on what? Not obvious to me at all without some data.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Dramatically is an over exaggeration and the number will never reach zero but it’s quite obvious the 70.3 distance is where the M-Dot focus should be.

I can’t speak globally and maybe the 140.6 distance is growing in popularity in other regions of the world but the distance is definitely dying a slow death in North America. I’m on record saying that in a few years there will only be six IM races in North America besides Kona: Texas, Florida, Arizona, California, Cozumel, and Lake Placid. I don’t see Canada, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Chattanooga surviving barring some unforeseen increase in popularity. Those four races are circling the drain.

The aging demographic is the big reason. The IM distance isn’t an older person’s game. I also think there was a shift in willingness to travel to races that was certainly in play pre-COVID but was accelerated by COVID. The abundance of 70.3 races means more regional and easily drivable trips.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Essentially you're asking what is the carrying capacity for full IM's in the current and future world environment. I think it's rather obvious that a booming economy is good for IM's and a recession (or inflationary) economy is bad. Two non-negotiables for fulls that are negotiable for half's is disposable income and free time. Both of those are being squeezed in the current (US) economy.

There's a simple (some might say reductive) economics argument to be made as well.

-A 140.6 requires you to be there Thu for packet pickup and leave Sun unless you want to drive/fly home immediately after (oof). That's 4 hotel nights (~$1000). A 70,3 you can check in the day before and leave the day of. That's 1-2 hotel nights ($250-500)

-With 1/3 as many events you can roughly say that the event will be ~3x as far away, so travel should cost ~3x as much (I know, but for back of the napkin math). Travel costs aren't linear with distance so lets say it's double, maybe $1,000 vs $500 but it's a huge variance.

-Then the entry fee for 140.6 is ~$900, for 70.3 is ~$350. before fees

Summed you get a 140.6 base cost of ~$2,900 for a 140.6 v ~$1,250 for a 70.3. That's very nearly 3 times the cost for a full, and there's 3 times the amount of 70.3's as a 140.6's. Seems like IM did a pretty good job working out the economics.

I saw there were around 1800 starters and 1600 finishers at IMFL this past weekend. I think there were like 2800 finishers when I last did the race in 2013. Losing 40% of your customer base in 10 years is not a great trend. That's also with less North American IM races in 2023 than 2013.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Its so long ago now I had to go check! It was 2011 when I did IMFL and I remember camping out on the internet waiting for entries to open to make sure I got in. I think I was lucky to get in and it sold out in under an hour - there were stories of volunteering on site so you could guarantee a sign up for next years race. It was a similar affair to get into Austria the following year. They sold out quick back then.

Those days seem to be over for the IM races now - are there any that sell out in minutes anymore? I know Challenge Roth does but cannot recall an IM branded race like that anymore - obviously Kona would do if it was an open event.

I think one of the problems is the sheer scale of putting on an 140.6 compared to putting on a 70.3. Quite a few 140.6 have become 70.3 for next year including my local race here in the UK.

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He who understands the WHY, will understand the HOW.

I had no idea about this, but I'm glad I do now. Why is pick up 2 days before the race?

That's a feeding frenzy by the sharks :)

In my experience, for a Saturday full IM race, packet pickup would be Wed-Thursday, bike racking Friday and awards/rolldown on Sunday.
For a Sunday race, packet pickup would be Thursday-Friday, bike racking on Saturday and awards/rolldown Monday morning.

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Sharon McN
@IronCharo
#TeamZoot
Clif Bar Pace Team 2003-2018

Money grab for the local hospitality industry is the real reason. IM will say something about logistics, blah, blah, blah.

Amazingly enough packet pickup at a 70.3 with more people than their IM events are somehow handled the day before without issue.

This is also something that IM needs to move away from. They need to figure out how to make everything easier and more convenient. They're still doing shit how it was done 20 years ago. Why we need to sometimes spend 60-90 minutes standing in different lines for check-in/packet pickup when some of it could be done online is absurd. Check my ID, hand me an envelope with my swim cap, bib, stickers, and timing chip and let's move on with our day. Instead we get one line for ID check, another to fill out waiver forms, another for cap/bib/stickers, another for the timing chip, another to test the timing chip, and I'm sure there's a line I'm forgetting.

Bike drop off the day before is the next thing that needs to go. "But, but, but, logistics, blah, blah, blah."

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Well I guess that means I'm not doing a full IM branded event anytime soon. The look my wife would give me if I said I was gonna head out for 4 days to, uh, exercise...

I guess Alpha Win Palm Springs it will be.

To be honest it's probably five days for most folks.

Let's say it's a Sunday race. Packet pickup/check-in is Friday at the latest which means most people will be there by Thursday. Most people are not going to have the time or energy to have all their shit packed up and ready to go on Monday... plus you feel like hell. So most folks probably leave on Tuesday. That's a hotel stay for TH, F, SA, SU, and M nights. As mathematics pointed out, one can easily shave off two days of that with a 70.3.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Found this new Triathlete article very interesting:

https://www.triathlete.com/culture/news/you-dont-have-to-do-ironman-to-be-a-triathlete/

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

With so many great events in race worthy locations it seems silly to limit yourself based on a brand. Don't get me wrong, I truly enjoy Ironman branded races (both full and half-distance) and hope/have plans to do many more. However, it seems a shame to not sprinkle in a few local and/or Challenge events as well.

A rationale I've found handy is to pick a course that peaks your interest, has a location you want to travel to, and then to put in the training, respect the sport, and have fun.

Anecdotally, I consider myself lucky to have completed Challenge Davos last summer after taking five years away from the sport. A few days after the event an email came through saying it would likely be the last one (for the time being) due to low participation. One of the best race experiences and trips I have ever had.

I don't really disagree with you that we're headed toward a reduced number of full-distance races, but for what it's worth I just got a note saying that IMWI is 80 percent full. That's a good sign because Wisconsin is one I'd certainly like to see survive.

Canada, Maryland, Chattanooga, and Wisconsin are all within about a month of each other (Aug 25-Sept 29). They are good options for people in the northern part of the country who want to train in the summer. I think/ hope two of them can survive.

That's a huge reason why I've only done one full IM, and I "justified" it as my 40th birthday present to myself. Maybe I'll do another when I turn 50; it's hard to spend that kind of time (not just the travel for the actual race, but the training) and money when they could both be used for the family.

Ironman is a 140.6 Brand. The 70.3 is called a half Ironman. They don't call the 70.3 distance an Ironman and the 140.6 a double Ironman. They announce that you are an Ironman when you cross the finish line of your first 140.6. They don't call you an Ironman when you complete a 70.3. So, regardless of races I think the 140.6 distance will always be the standard for an Ironman.

Having said that I personally have never done an Ironman. I was told over and over again by a veteran of the sport when I got into Triathlon that the Sprint Triathlon was triathlon at it best. So, Ironman and Triathlon are not synonymous. My younger brother did two full Ironman in 2002 as bucket list items then crossed it off his list and has only done one last minute sprint triathlon that he didn't train for since then. When I got into the sport it was to connect with my brother. He had done an Ironman and talked about the experience from training to competing on many occasions and I had no frame of reference to comprehend what he went through. I considered signing up for a Full Ironman for my first race but am not an Ultra Endurance Athlete like my brother. I had attempted two marathons and bonked on both of them, so I decided to do a non branded 70.3 race. I figured that was plenty long enough to get an idea of what my brother experienced doing a Full Ironman. I thought it might be a one-time thing but found that I really liked cycling and swimming and that multisport was much more fun to train for than Marathons. I did exclusively 70.3 races my first 3-4 years in the sport. Some of them were half Ironman events but most of them were non-branded 70.3 events. I really liked that distance and so I have no desire to do a full Ironman. After about four years some of my favorite non-branded 70.3 races were discontinued. I wanted to do more races not fewer so I did my first sprint triathlon. There were lots of Sprint Triathlons. I could do 2-3 of them for the time and money and race schedule that I could do one 70.3 race in. My first Sprint Triathlon I raced as hard as I could. I was redlining the whole race but at the finish line instead of feeling like I was going to die as I did at 70.3 events I felt like I had just done a fast workout. I wasn't sore. I had energy to walk around and talk to people. I had energy to cheer on other finishers. Etc. The more I have raced the more I agree that Sprints are Triathlon at its best. You can't make as many mistakes because instead being spaced 10 minutes apart at the finish you are spaced 10 seconds apart and if you didn't nail your transition, or didn't nail you bike mount, or stopped for something extra at the aid station that you really didn't need it may be the difference in first place and 2nd place in your AG.

So, the shorter races are really where the numbers are at in Triathlon. A local 140.6 event (non-branded) might get 20 participants where there may be 300 people at the same event for the sprint triathlon. 140.6 is more for the pointy end of the sport. The shorter distances are for everyone. The 70.3 events are a good place to meet in the middle. I can do an Olympic race and still not kill myself, but even that distance is a little long for some. Anything over about 2-1/2 hours is an Ultra race in that you have to refuel to finish and that a whole different animal that most of the masses won't care for. The attraction to Ironman is that it is hard and most people would never even attempt to do those type of distances. By design it for a small select portion of the population. That small select portion will never be zero, but with other options being a better fit for the masses more athletes will go for them than for the Iron Distance now that Triathlon is a more mainstream sport and not an exotic sport like it was in the not too distance past.