I don't think it would take long for them to get sub 30 minutes. But it might take a few weeks. They certainly have the engines.

They won't be even close to what good runners put out. At least not without good training. They may have the engine, but not the legs for running - I see it over and over with the best cyclists in my area. Unless they do multisport, they are very weak runners.

No way in hell they are breaking 30 minutes without years of training. Obviously the engine is there, but running and cycling are very different. Lance's best marathon was 2:45ish. I'd imagine he'd probably max out at a 2:35 or so.

Ben King decided to randomly run a marathon after the season last year and just managed to break 3 hrs, which is still impressive given he obviously doesn't run at all.

You're assuming that Contador and Quintana did not run as kids. Without knowing their past, growing up in Spain and Columbia it is almost certain as athletes, that they would have been running around kicking soccer balls and probably have the basics of running mechanics down.

FYI, Lance was a 16.xx 5K cross country runner as a 16 year old in high school in Texas. I bet his road 5K time (which he never ran) was high 15.xx at that time or close to 16 flat.

My thought it that Contador or Quintana could crack 30 minutes with 3 months of running. 30 minutes is not fast....the fastest runners in the world are 27.xx and arguably Contador and Quintana have engines just as good as the best 10000m runners, they might lack run specificity so being 10% slower should not be 'that hard".

I think the best cyclists in your area probably cannot be compared with the best UCI hill climb cyclists. I think hill climb prowess transfers much more directly to running speed than TT or crit guys. The big question for a climber with an engine is how well their lower leg works for running mechanics. If that is good, then we're probably good to go. Just looking at the musculation, length of achilles etc etc for both those guys, I think they could run pretty fast but if I look at or Tony Martin or Cavendish, I'd say, they probably can't break 30 min even though they probably have bigger engines than many local 30 min 10K studs.

It's a neuromuscular challenge, not an aerobic capacity issue

For reference, the best xc-skiers back in the 80-90 ran the 10,000 on track under 30 minutes. Now the skiers are heavier so the times are a little slower.

Cyclists are skinny and fit so they would most likely run fast. How fast is hard to tell without having any data points.

Colombia

(sorry, pet peeve)

Now you're getting to it. So you think that neither of those guys have it? I think they do.

Are we talking before or after they take their shots of EPO, HGH and TRT? If afterwards then I say 30 minutes should be a breeze.

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Contador and Quintana "arguably" have engines as good as the best 10k runners? That's like saying that LeBron James can "arguably" dunk a basketball as well as a member of the U.S. men's soccer team. I think they could hold their own with the 10k runner when it comes to aerobic capacity.

I agree that it's a neuromuscular issue and not a question of aerobic capacity.

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I agree that these guys could do it. But with more than 3 months of training. Running at 4:49 per mile they would need to be very technically sound runners and comfortable with leg turnover at that speed.

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Strava

Dev, where are you getting this info about Lance? We were in the same tri age group in Texas when he was 16 and 17 ( and I 15 and 16) and participated in many of the same tris (USTS, Waco, Presidents in Dallas, etc.). I was on my high school's cross country/track team down in Houston (Lance was outside Dallas), I ran about the same tri splits as he did (and could not go 15:xx in open 5k), and what I remember standing out at the time is (i) the fact that he was top 3 out of the water in every race, (ii) top bike split, and (iii) not-so-great on the run (but mainly, it seemed, because he wasn't putting in the time).

What it takes to run a fast 10k:
1) Running Speed
2) Great aerobic ability
3) Great Running form
4) Low BMI

Quintana and Contador have great aerobic ability and low BMI. It is likely that they have very good running speed.
But there is no reason to believe that they would have good running form.

Let's do some math- method 1:
Quintana/Contador vs Bekele:
BMI and aerobic (same): 26:20
Speed - assume Quintana/Contador- are 5 seconds slower per 400 sprinters- still very good sprinters- (5x25= + 1:40)
Form - assume Quintana/Contador have average form- 5:30 minutes
Predicts: 33:30

Method 2: Quintana/Contador better than bad:
Runner with bad form and poor speed but fitness and BMI of Quintana/Contador- could run 40:00 minutes
Quinta/Contador speed - 10x25= - 4:30
Quintan/Contador form - average = - 2 minutes
Predicts: 33:30 also

My guess is that they could do 33:30 for 10k if they trained.
One of the two might develop good form and run 32:00
And one would have bad form and run 36.

In short - I think the odds are good that one of the two would not be faster than an average slowtwitcher (on an age adjusted basis).
That the odds are good that 1 one of the two would have been an OK collegiate runner.
That chances of both of them running sub 30- close to 0.

Slowtwitch forums are full of people that think- "I was a great runner so therefore I would have been a great cyclist."
Or I was a "great cyclist so I would have been a great swimmer."
My brother says - "I am a great lawyer, so I could have been a great engineer" (the arrogance!!- he is aweful at math).

Sorry- it doesn't work that way. Some of the factors that make a person great at one sport might make someone great at another- aerobic fitness and dedication for instance.
But other factors will not.
Some things just simply aren't related to each other at all.

There is no reason to believe that Quintana or Contador would have anything but average running form. And who's to say their bodies tolerate running stress well. Or that the could excell on considerably fewer hours/wk of training.

I hang with a few former euro cyclists, granted not Contador, but very good and they can't run 10 feet without falling over. And, their bone density and tendon/ligament development (for running) is so lacking in development that it would take a long, long time. I think they'd stay injured most of the time if 30 min was the goal, and accordingly would never reach it. And, of course we are talking hypothetical so we can all say whatever we want!!

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I highly doubt they'd break 30 without well over 1 year of very specific training. Big engine alone does not make a fast runner. I've known cyclists who pick up running easily and others who are below average. I think you underestimate how fast 30 minutes is. The fastest I would predict in under a year of training is 32 minutes-ish, with good training and staying injury free.

Not as fast as Gwen. Am I allowed to give that answer?

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First : I like the question. Taking PEDS out of the equation - which you cannot really do - if they could run sub 30 then could they switch over to tri and sweep the podium in rio? If they come out of the water 3 min down how much would a 3 team trial come out of T2 ahead?

LOL...I trolled ST from airplane Wifi somewhere over Lake Tahoe. Then I actually started work in sardine class so have not been on this thread.

I really don't think 30 min 10k requires THAT much form if you have a massive engine and already have the body composition consistent with a standout local runner. That's only 18 seconds per 100m speed. Not really that fast in terms of how fast humans go.

I think the problem is that they would exit the water 7 min behind and their run off the bike after an energy sapping swim would be slower than the ITU guys even if fresh run times were similar.

Pretty much this, largely a durability issue. Thes guys train 1000+ hours a year in a sport which has a very defined and limited pattern. Also zero impact.

Maurice