Rappstar wrote:
MI_Mumps wrote:
Congrats to David McNamee on his podium. Listening to a finish line interview with him today, it struck me that if a decent ITU swimmer/ runner like him can race smart and get 3rd, is there any way Gomez would have finished lower?
Obviously McNamee has a few more years of 140.6 biking, which is huge. It just got me thinking though - I hope Gomez does it next year.
I think this year was really one of the most powerful examples of the truth in Michael Ferrari's observations - made when Lance was pondering Kona - that Ironman (and, in particular, Kona) is overwhelmingly a calorie balance equation.
Ultimately, the 5 or so minutes that the second pack gives up to the front pack is basically insurmountable in terms of net energy expenditure. This is increasingly true as the front pack becomes larger. It was close to 30 guys this year.
This is why it's such a huge leap to move from the second pack to the front pack. If you look at the top-placings, 3/10 come from the 2nd pack - Stein, Kienle, and Sanders. And yes, 2/5 for the top-5. On the podium, you had 1/3 - 2nd place - that took the single most extraordinary bike-run performance in, probably, the history of Ironman racing. And it still wasn't enough to overcome the disadvantage out of the water.
If the day had been slower overall, that MIGHT have changed, but it also might not have, as the energy cost on the bike would increase as well and the relative benefit of being in the group as opposed to needing to ride off the front would also go up.
This is why it's not enough simply to become a "better" swimmer; you need to be a front-pack swimmer to win Kona. I would say this year is basically proof of that.
A 2nd-pack swimmer hasn't won Kona since Stadler in 2006. And I would not expect that to change. The handicap of needing to ride that much harder is just insurmountable when it comes to running performance.
I would say that, with Gomez (and possibly Brownlee) coming over - and who knows who else (say Blummenfelt or Murray or any of the other guys that might also choose to make the switch at some point or another), that this dynamic is only going to increase.
I think this year was pretty exceptional with that big group that was willing to gun it off the front - very much a natural sort of Macca-2010-esque dynamic. I think that will be less likely - rather than more likely - to reoccur.
What might change that is if we see someone who is a front-pack swimmer who's willing to go off the front - but I actually think that this is unlikely because the front group is so big and so fresh, that it's unlikely that you would see a breakaway off the front of the 1st pack in the way that you see the group break off the front of the 2nd pack.
TL;DR: Ironman - especially Kona - is a overwhelmingly a race *for the win* of the fastest runner of the fast swimmers who's also a competent biker. This because of basic caloric requirements.
while i would agree with the energy equation
I think especially sanders could have saved energy on the bike with better pacing and better bike handling skills ( to save energy) he realizes himself that his 15 min on 350 watts wasnt the smartest move. Also in the first 60 k they pushed extremly hard ( and seemed to have killed the guy who had the fastest bike split last year right there )
They could have gone a bit easeir and catch the field a bit later and forcus more on enrgy intake.
Besides it would appear that with sanders leading the 2nd half of the swim they could have gone at least a min faster in the swim ( could woulda of course ) and burn less matches at the bike start and take care more about nutrition intake. ( wurf seems to have been the smartest on the bike and got the best posible result )
I would think with wurf sanders and kienle in the mix it will be just as likely that they ride away next year and likely to include bocherer and again stein next year. also amberger can asses his strategy when to push the bike (and there is a good chance that will lead to a result that he will wait until the fast pack catches up .
moreover there is of course the risk that the competent bike swim runners stuts, get a blocking /drafting penalty and we saw it on tv that lange again was close to get a penalty ( and not becasue he wasnt riding fair but fighting for a good postion in the huge pack ) , and there was another shot where a blue athletes was very close ( could have been fromhold as the camera was behind )
i think if anything sanders and kienle have seen that they can break the pack and it might give then more confidence for next year. and realiticaly while they can improve the pacing a bit they have really no other option than to do the same next year and with a bit more wind and smarter pacing i dont see them at a disadvantage . espcially for sanders that has shown that working on swim has not really affected his bike and run
overall i think we think too much about cyclist versus runner. I think kanute has shown very well that there is many ways to go to rome at the end its about perfect race prep ,execution and a bit of luck. and given that lange will have massive sponsor obligations now , i think sanders will fancy his chances next year.