First of all, this is not a shoulda-coulda-woulda posting that he could have beaten Kienle. Kienle won fair and square with perfect execution and did enough on the run to take the win. If Jan ran faster, I bet he would have a tough time closing the gap and Kienle had more gas in the tank to run a lot faster than 2:54. He just needed to protect his lead.
But coming over to Jan, this guy might be the greatest talent to ever show up in Kona...if he can get his execution right, it is scary to think how fast he can go. For a second let's remove the flat and the ensuing penalty (his fault for re entering the paceline in a drafting position). So that's 6-7 min right there. Transition execution can be better. For a guy who is an Olympic gold medalist obviously transitions are super smooth...so just getting exposed to the kona/IM set up should allow him to shave some time there.
The big place I think this guy can save time is run pacing
Here are his run splits start at sub 6 on Alii, but at the end he was actually running slower than Ben Hoffman
http://www.ironman.com/triathlon/events/americas/ironman/world-championship/ironfan/2014-oct-11/leaderboard.aspx#axzz3FrUQevTm
Mirinda actually starts out a touch slower than Jan but closes at the end at a very similar speed:
http://www.ironman.com/triathlon/events/americas/ironman/world-championship/ironfan/2014-oct-11/leaderboard.aspx#axzz3FrUQevTm
Given how much faster Jan runs a 10K than Mirinda, I would say that if anyone can take on Mark Allen's Kona run course record, Frodo can. He probably burnt a few matches post penalty too trying to get back into the bike game.
On a good swim and wind year, I'm thinking he can swim 2 min faster (so 49), bike around 4:25 (he biked 4:37 with the penalty and flat on this windy year) . With better transitions, it puts him stepping out of T2 at 5:19 and then with a better starting position and not feeling he has to chase, this guy can run 2:40. That puts the guy at 8 hours even.
At 33, with one Kona under his belt, there have to be a lot of good cracks at the win and maybe a sub 8. If anyone has the tools to pull it off, he's the guy. At least that was my thought watching him yesterday. The guy is amazing. A lot of guys would have mentally packed it in yesterday, but he kept fighting back. It reminded me of the lead pack in the run at Beijing 2008, with the constant attacks and surges and the big guy just hanging around not letting the bungee chord break waiting to open it up in the final 200m.
But coming over to Jan, this guy might be the greatest talent to ever show up in Kona...if he can get his execution right, it is scary to think how fast he can go. For a second let's remove the flat and the ensuing penalty (his fault for re entering the paceline in a drafting position). So that's 6-7 min right there. Transition execution can be better. For a guy who is an Olympic gold medalist obviously transitions are super smooth...so just getting exposed to the kona/IM set up should allow him to shave some time there.
The big place I think this guy can save time is run pacing
Here are his run splits start at sub 6 on Alii, but at the end he was actually running slower than Ben Hoffman
http://www.ironman.com/triathlon/events/americas/ironman/world-championship/ironfan/2014-oct-11/leaderboard.aspx#axzz3FrUQevTm
Mirinda actually starts out a touch slower than Jan but closes at the end at a very similar speed:
http://www.ironman.com/triathlon/events/americas/ironman/world-championship/ironfan/2014-oct-11/leaderboard.aspx#axzz3FrUQevTm
Given how much faster Jan runs a 10K than Mirinda, I would say that if anyone can take on Mark Allen's Kona run course record, Frodo can. He probably burnt a few matches post penalty too trying to get back into the bike game.
On a good swim and wind year, I'm thinking he can swim 2 min faster (so 49), bike around 4:25 (he biked 4:37 with the penalty and flat on this windy year) . With better transitions, it puts him stepping out of T2 at 5:19 and then with a better starting position and not feeling he has to chase, this guy can run 2:40. That puts the guy at 8 hours even.
At 33, with one Kona under his belt, there have to be a lot of good cracks at the win and maybe a sub 8. If anyone has the tools to pull it off, he's the guy. At least that was my thought watching him yesterday. The guy is amazing. A lot of guys would have mentally packed it in yesterday, but he kept fighting back. It reminded me of the lead pack in the run at Beijing 2008, with the constant attacks and surges and the big guy just hanging around not letting the bungee chord break waiting to open it up in the final 200m.