I'm consistently able to push 95% of FTP for an Oly bike and 100% for a sprint, which leaves just enough for the run.

Personally, aside from being a bit waterlogged and needing a minute or two to settle in on the bike I don't think the swim affects my bike pace much at the Oly distance. For long course, maybe a bit more.

The event distances in a Sprint or Olympic triathlon are mostly aerobic. For example, depending on what tables you look at/text you reference a 5k run is 90-95% aerobic and a 10k run is roughly 95-97%aerobic. An 800m Sprint swim and a 1500m Olympic swim are mostly aerobic endeavors. If athletes go 16 minutes for an Olympic swim, they are still aerobic. There is no need to "change energy systems"

You have 3 basic systems, with the 3rd having 2 divisions

ATP-PC lasts approx 15 seconds
Anaerobic Glycolosis lasts approx 50 seconds
Aerobic System (can burn both glucose and fat aka beta oxidation) 2 min+

While time approximations are given, all three systems blend together to produce movement at a given time.

What is going to allow you to bike better, is becoming a more efficient swimmer at your race pace.

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"Just don’t abandon everything you’ve ever learned because of something someone said on the internet." - Eric McGinnis

Every race distance is "red-lining the whole time". You only move the red line from distance to distance...

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ZONE3 - We Last Longer

This doesn't make any sense. All races are redline for the whole time.

Anyway, there is no changing of energy systems or anything fancy like that. You are just tired, because you have been working aerobically. How many watts you are down in the bike leg compared to fresh depends how good you are at swimming and how fit you are.

The way to improve this is get more fit aerobically and/or better at swimming.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Open water is especially aerobic given the uninterrupted nature of the race. One could argue that pool distance events dip more frequently into the anaerobic zone if the swimmer is really working the turns.

Perhaps the issue is muscular fatigue in the legs & hips. I have always swum, even at 200 to 500 race pace, with a fairly subtle 2-beat kick at best, which almost completely disappears in open water, so I arrive in T1 fairly fresh. Same with hard bike sets after swim workouts - little impact. But a few days per week, I'll do a 1000-2000yd kick set, sometimes aerobic, others more anaerobic like 40x25 @ :45 all fast. But after any kick workout, the power output on a particular climb on the way back from the pool, or in a hard bike workout, is typically lower than usual. Kicking seems to destroy my hip flexors. Learning to swim efficiently - with minimal contribution from the kick - at race pace has definitely helped me ride (and run) better in triathlons.

I mean I usually finish an Oly swim in low 20:xx, so I'm not a poor swimmer (though not the leader). I guess I should have defined a vague term like red-lining. I mean like sprinting, really burning your muscles, would be a red-line. That's not something I've felt during a HIM--definitely more fatigue, but not the muscle burn.

I guess it would more lean to if you went a little easier in the water by just a little, so you're not trashed when exiting (comfortably fast pace as opposed to killing it), would there be time savings in T1 and in getting up to speed despite a slower swim? If y'all have experimented with that during a race(s)

It just depends on the distance of the pool event of the % of aerobic/anaerobic metabolism utilized to fuel the activity.

Swimmers shouldn't be working hard on turns though, turns should work for the swimmer. Many swimmers inadvertently have to work harder on turns because they do not do it properly, not getting a solid push off the wall and a tight streamline. Many tend to coast too long as well letting their pace drop below their intended pace, so they have to work hard to get back up to pace. A proper flip turn and streamline is broken out of at the right time so you are still going the desired pace and don't have to work to get back up to speed. Just takes time and focused work on turns to get down.

You hear tons of different opinions on kicking in a triathlon swim.

IMO As far as kicking in a triathlon swim goes, I am all for it as long as the athlete knows how to kick properly/efficiently. It not only helps with propulsion but stroke timing, body rotation, and aids in breathing. You will hear coaches and athletes say not to kick or to minimize the kick in the swim due to different reasons. Many traithletes don't kick properly/efficiently and would actually make their swim less efficient.

If you know how to kick and aren't torching yourself doing it, it is only going to make you a faster, more efficient swimmer.

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"Just don’t abandon everything you’ve ever learned because of something someone said on the internet." - Eric McGinnis

I have experimented with this, and I have been able to see a difference. I am also a stronger swimmer so about 20' for an olympic swim, and I have found that there is a point where the extra energy spent in the water does not yield any faster swim times. Some of this has to do with fitness, competition, conditions, etc; however, I have found that the races where I have had the best bike/run splits are times when I swam very conservatively. My heart rate stayed very low, I felt like I was not working hard at all, and I was able to get to my bike much faster, was able to ramp up the pace very quickly, and I almost always had more legs left for the run. The only issue I have had with a slower swim and lower heart rate getting out of the water is sometimes my heart rate spiked transitioning from swimming to running which was a shock to the system. I had to slow down before I could ramp it back up again.

The times when I swim harder, I find that I am much less efficient with my stroke, and I also have a tendency to start kicking much harder which burns up my legs. I also let my heart rate rise too high so that when I get out of the water, I feel like I need to jog through transition to let my heart rate settle. I have even had to start the bike easier so I don't spike too early. These small windows of having to slow in an olympic or sprint race can cost valuable time.

With that said, sometimes the competition or race decides your swim pace for you. Starting out slower for me is great, but I have also had to sprint at the beginning to bridge gaps or grab someones draft in the water to try and stay with them during the swim and bike. But you can pay a price for that as well. What I am trying to do this year is to spend more time in the pool so that my comfortable pace is faster so I can still swim conservatively when I can and still be fine while at the same time be able to get after it if I need to.

Take a trainer, set it by the pool, strap the bike. Conduct a cycling warm up, get in the pool, conduct the swim warm up, then crank 5x400@5:10, hold 1:12 pace, get out and try and do 2x20min@IF95. You will find out instantly if you can really afford to do 1:12/100. Simple.

Over-swimming in long course is one of the leading causes for walking the run. Over-swimming in olympic distance race is very subtle to recognize. Look at your files when you could not produce more then IF80-85 during bike, you will have known that you over paced the run. The impact of over-swimming the short course race is immediate. Power production on the bike is impacted right away.

There is no such a thing in Sprint going redline all the way. Sprint is 95% aerobic, so no, you are not near the redline through the first 3/4 of it. It may feel that way though.

I hate using times when related to Olympic distance races because there are too many variables.

But I can talk about 18:00 1500 m swimmer because that is me. 20:00 is not "aerobic." It is warm up. 21:15 is I didn't warm up and my kids kept me up until 3:30.

If I was doing a pool swim tri I would aim for 18:45-19:00 That :45-:60 is not worth the effort.