The chances are very good for any top IM runner if they can reach T2 near the lead without burning too many matches.... the same as any year. LVL burnt the fewest matches in the first 7 hours, and he's a top runner, so he won. Its' possible that a little time off, refocusing, getting in some good training blocks without injury, that he could be right up there.

Hate to oversimplify it. I still look at the number of guys in that lead swim group that burn a lot of matches the 1st 51 minutes, and the rest of them before mile 80 on the bike.

---

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

At least 4 people would have to have a very bad day for Crowie to win.

Could it happen?
Yes.

Is it likely?
Not very.

---

#######
My Blog

so great. love to see him win, or at least be relevant, would be awesome.

+1 on that! Cant wait to see him race and really hope he makes a run for it, especially since I will be down there watching the race :)

---

Andy Mullen
Team Zoot

Hopefully, he has had a little less stressful lead up to the race. Physically he is proven, but a little older. So, is he willing to go really deep. He knows what it takes to win and will he make that choice to really hurt when that time comes.
I bet there are younger talented men that are willing to deep.
I would not count him out, but would not bet the farm on him either.
Class act, so I wish him a great race.

---

Team Zoot So Cal

His best kona races have come in years he was either injured or did not race much and I have a feeling (maybe hoping for the old guy one more time sentiment) that he will be very competitive this year. I think expectations being lower and him being fresh could see him in striking distance starting the run. If so, the guy can still run low 2:40's which has you in the mix pretty much every year. I suspect an easier day on the bike in terms of wind would help his chances and potentially a hotter/more humid day on the run. He will have a lot of people rooting for him.

I love Outside magazine. it is only one of 3 magazines that i still subscribe to.

So just so I am not confused?? He is back in for reals????

Wow, I don't know what to say.

If his back holds up at ITU LC World Champs in China then he will be a factor in Kona for sure. The past two years he was unable to stay on his aerobars so was out of it before the run. He's been working on his body quite a bit this year with physio and massage (as he mentioned) so I hope it pays off. Would love to see him kill it. One thing to think about too, is the fact that he's been training a lot off feel, which could be good or bad. It's something he's never done to this degree so it's sort of an unknown.

(maybe hoping for the old guy one more time sentiment)


Yes - same for me.

Not a clear favourite, but a bit of a dark horse now. I know that I'll have him in my pool (As always The Canadians, and all others welcome, will be gathering at Lulus, or whatever it is called now, on Friday night, in Kailua for the annual IMH Pool! - I'm a two time winner! $20 bucks and you are in!).


At the risk of stating the obvious, if he can stay close on the bike and the race not get too far away from him, and he has a low 2:40 marathon in the legs, that is always a formula for a top-5 place!

---

---

Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Any proven runner on the island always have a chance. And we all know Crowie is one of those runners.

What happened to his "I just don't have it any more in Kona" quote from last year?

Sadly I feel it is too late for him. He changed the game when he went 4:24 on the bike and then ran a 2:44. I don't think he has that kind of bike in him. He may still run a 2:45 like Dave Scott did when he was 42 but Crowie no longer has the bike strength to stay close.

I'd put Crowie as a long shot. Anytime you can run, you have a chance, but a lot of things would have to fall his way. The thing about Kona though is that it has a lot of race dynamics and contenders are more likely to take risks of blowing up for their shot at glory. IOW, a lot of times the fastest guy on paper doesn't win.

4 people have a very bad day? We are referring to a guy that has the Kona record for the fastest race ever. I think "very bad day" is a bit of a stretch. If Crowie has a GOOD day and a couple (not 4) don't have a stellar day, then Crowie wins. He wouldn't be there if he didn't think he could. He's going there for the win. Period!

Am I the only one that thinks he's not in it to win it, rather, to help someone else win by mixing up the dynamics?

Are Kona veterans Pete Jacobs, Crowie, and Raelert contending for the title?

Thought it to be interesting for the following reasons:
Incredibly gifted runners in Kona and strong enough cyclists to stay within the chase pack of riders
Have been dominating the top three (with exception of previous year)
Very light race schedules coming into Kona*
Kienle is human

Maybe everything leading up to this year's race is strategically coming together. And let's not forget PJ was foreshadowing a very stellar performance in Kona this year.

*Raelert had a late IM loss to TJ, but how much can a 3:10 marathon really take out of him?

Yes you are. Does Crowie strike you as the kind of guy who competes that way? If he's not going for a win, he's hanging out with his kids and commentating.

---

===================================
I'll tell you all right now, my seat is too low, I'm not aero and I carry too much fluid on the bike.

Look at what happened at Melbourne.....getting sent of course on the swim from what I recall and a bike mishap, and still bangs out a champion caliber run. A slightly different swim and being with everyone on the bike and suddenly he could have just as easily won Melbourne and everyone is putting him at the top of the heap for Kona favourites. Perhaps the mishaps in Melbourne coupled with that fast run is exactly what he needed to re light his fire while staying waaaay under the radar. If nothing else Dave Scott should be able to provide some advice on getting someone in the 40-44 age group ready to take the Kona win!

Crowie outran EVERYONE in Melbourne's top 10 and biked solo and was off course on the swim. If he comes out in the lead swim group and hangs in to T2, everyone better be scared.

That 2:43 run in Melbourne was solid and I would think that people should be worried about him and should try to shed him before T2. He also did not race 70.3 World's this year as he did in the past few years, so less travel and racing stress. Watch out for him.

He has a chance to win. And...i think Russ Brandt have a point here. So: a victory is a possibility, and mixing the dynamics is an possible objective. But...cui bono?.

So you're thinking McKenzie?

Hi Dev,
I feel this is wishful thinking on your part. I liken this to Dave Scott in 1996 when he was 42. He ran a 2:42 to finish 5th but he came out of T2 in 25th place after posting a 4:49 bike compared to the top 3 men who biked 4:30ish. I don't see Craig posting a sub 4:40 bike and will therefore not be in contention after T2. I am sure he will have a great run again but won't be close to top 3 at the finish.
John

We've seen this story play out many times in sports: the "old vet" tries to make 1 too many moves and falls flat on his face and his ungracefullness finally shows, and leaves everyone winching and "wishing it didn't end like this". Happened with Jordan in basketball, happens countless times with NFL QB's, etc.

While I don't think Crowie will be that bad, I certainly don't think he has a shot at winning. He's one of the best IM champions we have had, but at some point, you just don't have it anymore. Maybe he's ramping up for 1 more try, and that's all great and all, but at the end of the day, he's going to have to go into a likely pain cave he's not experience in some time (which is natural when you get old and don't have the desire to continue to train to the level it takes to win). Great story but if we are honest with ourselves, he's not on the A list of contenders, splits from this year be damned.

---

------------------
@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I could be wrong - please correct me if I am - but that was 2011 and he has only won one Full IM since then; the 2012 Asia Pacific Champs... Since then it has been a mixed bag of results with some IM 70.3 wins.
He'll be on the start line with a chest full of sponsors and a mouth full of marketing and he deserves every dollar he makes because of it.
He won't crack the top 5. And Macca won't crack the top 10.
I love them both and have enjoyed both of their careers from start to finish.

TrekGeek wrote:

4 people have a very bad day? We are referring to a guy that has the Kona record for the fastest race ever. I think "very bad day" is a bit of a stretch. If Crowie has a GOOD day and a couple (not 4) don't have a stellar day, then Crowie wins. He wouldn't be there if he didn't think he could. He's going there for the win. Period!

---

#######
My Blog

Don't think Macca will be there. Although I guess that does mean he won't make the top 10.

Edit: Grammar.

No, Crowie doesn't strike me as a guy that would want to just be in a race without the expectation to win during 99% of his career. However, his interview last year after the race really marked a turning point in my mind where I think he's realized he's no spring chicken anymore. I wonder (and have absolutely no evidence to think this) if late in a professional career, you start looking for ways to draw a few more paychecks by convincing sponsors that you still want to win, or just keep making "appearances" so the buzz stays with you a bit. Then, go into races with secondary goals to help another fellow countryman or training partner get their break.