a guy that know how to win this race.....and was 4min down from the win at melbourne 6 months ago...... of course he as a shot and one of the player. Same with Peter Reid in the past, was counted dead in 2003 before he ran away with the race. When you know how to win in hawaii, your one big step ahead of your competition.

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Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
Jonnyo Coaching
Instargram

Who would he help? He's always struck me as the ultimate competitor and I'm having a hard time imagining that he'd race just to help someone else. It doesn't make sense to me. I'm sure he believes he can win it and I wouldn't rule him out.

Possibly fellow countryman Luke McKenzie??

I think last year when he was walking on the marathon with Jacobs and Rapp, that was his "fall on the face moment". Surely, he has prepared so a repeat doesn't happen this year.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

He is on the start list for ITU world champs this weekend. I wonder if he is doing that

Right, and my point is, we all want/hope Crowie to win, a lot more than what actually kind of odds he should be getting. Which is fine, but throwing up stats hoping they stick and saying that means he is a favorite to Kona is just in my mind misguided.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Yes but it's too easy to say "he has a shot". There are 13 other guys in this race that "have a shot" if everything goes just right for them. So your really saying that Crowie is a favorite?

ETA: I'm just not drinking the same kool aid that yall seem to be drinking.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

there is definitely not 13 guys ahead of him in MY book. As i said, a pass winner that as show world class fitness 6 months ago(Melbourne). So, i would have him in my top 6-8 guys to win.

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Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
Jonnyo Coaching
Instargram

nothing to take away from FVL or PJ, but it seems that this year's race really lacks any "true" favorite. A lot of the guys who seemed poised to step up the last couple years - Bockel, Kienle, Llanos - seem to have stepped back. Maybe Cunnama is ready for a jump forward, though he certainly doesn't get much attention here, given a top 5 last year but hasn't stepped up with a big IM win. So in the context of a bunch of guys all with 7-1, 9-1 odds, it kinda doesn't feel that Crowie is SO far off from them at say 10-1.

what could crowie do, however unlikely, to help mckenzie besides letting him draft in the swim? we know that luke is going to be in with the leaders on the bike so its not like craig could hammer to string the group out there.

To Brooks and others. While it might be wishful thinking, as recently as Melbourne he showed he is competitive, and in his brain, he likely felt that his body is in the range of "being in the hunt", rightly or wrongly.

Yes and a guy that showed world class fitness 1 year ago at the same race you and Dev are pointing to, and what happened. Add 1 more calendar year of training/life and he suddenly becomes a favorite once again? I guess I have to ask what in the hell you actually call a favorite, because I think what you more are describing is that Crowie has a shot. Having a shot and being a favorite and/or SHOULD podium are 2 different things.

And dont take this as me hating on Crowie. But this is just real assessment, nothing more nothing less. You think he will win, I dont (ETA: To be more specific, I dont think he'll be top 5).

ETA #2- I think your whole rebuttal to my comment was to make the case that he has a shot to win. I dont necessarily disagree. I think 10 guys that line up have a "shot" at winning, but really only a handful are the odds on favorite and deserve those accolades. Being a past champion is great and all or having fitness 6 months is good, but at the same time, that was the case last year, and he got whipped. So just saying he has a shot, isn't really all that much of a rebuttal to my post unless your willing to say he is going to be the 2-3 guys that wins this race. Crowie always has a shot of winning, he's just that talented and has that kind of run speed that he's always going to be "in the picture". But being in the picture is a wide scoop, and I'm willing to narrow it down to say, no crowie has no real shot of winning.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I don't think he has a realistic shot at winning (although I would love to be proven wrong), but I'd guess he has at least a 50% chance at top 5.

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Swimming Workout of the Day:

Favourite Swim Sets:

2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly

Personally I don't think he is the favourite to win. He has a podium shot if he puts together a run like Melbourne and gets a low wind day (being a smaller rider) so that he can arrive with the proverbial "Faris group" (the group of guys 5 min behind the uberbiker of any given year), then he has a shot at the win. But he needs low wind so they can't drop him easily. High wind day, and I barely give him a shot at top 10. On those high wind days, there is just more continuous crank torque with less coasting....not as good if you back is not 100%

Also saw this. I figure 70.3 worlds was too soon for him. Interesting that they're going with relatively unique distances this year. Usually I think it's just double or triple the OD but this time around it's a mix of the two. 4 km swim, 120 km bike and 20 km run. Makes it a bit more than a HIM so interesting choice I think. Here is a link to the startlist: http://www.triathlon.org/...championships/262705.

Other people I'm recognizing are Greg Bennett, Rasmus Petraeus, Denis Vasiliev and Sylvain Sundrie a former world champion at this distance. Billard Bertrand the defending champion is returning as well as two other top 5 finishers in Cyril Viennot and Jens Toft. Should be an interesting race to follow.

COURSE
SWIM
4 kms
Number of laps:2 Laps
Water temperature: Wetsuit Possible
Elite: Ocean bay
Paratriathlon:Ocean bay
Age Groups: Ocean bay
Conditions: Ocean
BIKE
120 kms
Number of laps: 3 Laps - 40km per lap
Sea side roads, hills and corners, technically challenging
RUN
20 kms
Number of laps: 4 Laps - 5km per lap
Roads and sea side wood path, technically challenging

It always strikes me as amazing how people who are so familiar with the sport, read it religiously still don't get the biggest of all the factors. Kona isn't Melbourne, Kona isn't Nice or Frankfurt or Mount Tremblanc. Kona is in a class of it's own, like no other race and in my opinion results from this year are not good indicators. What is a good indicator is his track record. He has a winning record in this race and that will give him the confidence he needs.

If you think Crowie hasn't looked at the work he needs to do to win this thing you're delusional. He is no longer the favorite but he is a contender and if he's sacrificing time from his family he is going in to win. I firmly believe he has what it takes to do so and with modern technology and advancements I don't think his age is as big of a factor as it was for 6x Dave in the late 90s. The only people who can beat Crowie is himself by having an off day, or an amazing performance by somebody else. He's not a "long shot" so let's be real here, if you can run a low 2:40 marathon you can bike with the lead pack or close enough to pass them on the run.We all know runners win Kona.

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"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

I'm hoping Faris is in the mix this year!!!!

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

If you think Crowie hasn't looked at the work he needs to do to win this thing you're delusional. He is no longer the favorite but he is a contender and if he's sacrificing time from his family he is going in to win. I firmly believe he has what it takes to do so and with modern technology and advancements I don't think his age is as big of a factor as it was for 6x Dave in the late 90s. The only people who can beat Crowie is himself by having an off day, or an amazing performance by somebody else. He's not a "long shot" so let's be real here, if you can run a low 2:40 marathon you can bike with the lead pack or close enough to pass them on the run.We all know runners win Kona.

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Explain to me his 2013 and 2012 kona results then. I mean if all we are essentially saying is that Crowie has a shot, then we are all in agreement. There isn't much else to talk about then.

ETA: But his age, his lifestyle/family HAVE to factor in when talking about his chances. For as much as his past experiences are in the positive, can they not also be countered by the fact that his limiting factor (training and intensity to train etc), tips the scale back to even steven essentially. So if all this thread is saying is that Crowie has a shot at winning, that really hasn't ever been in doubt has it? Being having a shot and actually executing the steps you say to win have been hard to execute for Crowie the past 2 years.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

i was reply to your comment: While I don't think Crowie will be that bad, I certainly don't think he has a shot at winning.

now you say you agree with me? dam you english people are complicated

anyway, it s all fun and sharing opinion on my side, i think a past winner as a huge advantage over others. There is a element of figuring out this race that many will never get.

we seen it with Peter Reid, Macca.... multiple time winner that were already counted out/washup/done by many, and came back to win once more. I think crowie as a legitimate chance at pulling it!

if i had to pick the winner, my life depend on it...and you give me 5 pick, i take crowie as one. perhaps i wasted one pick.....

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Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
Jonnyo Coaching
Instargram

No I meant I agree that Crowie is always going to be in the conversation. I do not agree that he will win 2014 Kona. So my point was more to say, it's easy to say he "has a shot". That's kinda a giving, Crowie shows up on the start line and he always is going to be respected enogh to "watch out for". There are 10 guys that have a shot to win, IF everything goes according to their plan, they can win. I just was willing to take it one step further to say, no I dont see him winning nor top 5, and I see you are atleast taking the step to say he is a top 5 favorite. I certainly dont think he's deserving of a favorite status going into 2014 Kona, but always worth being in the conversation for.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I'm pretty sure it was chronic back pain. From whats I've seen and read he's taken extra precautions for this (extra massage and needle therapy) to ensure he doesn't have a repeat of this. I am saying that IF his back holds up he's clearly in the mix to win and not with 13 other guys but more than likely 4 others. LVL is unlikely as we know how many people repeat the win traditionally. To me that leaves Luke McKenzie, PJ, Kienle and Raelert as his main competition if he is on form. I don't claim to be an expert, just sharing my opinion and you very well could be right. Being World Class Elite however is a very rare trait.

I think we're all excited to see the biggest race of the year and I for one can't wait to see the results. I wish all the competitors the very best of luck and success but my heart is with Crowie and my mind is with Luke.

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"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

In addition to the back pain/injury there are a few interviews floating around where Crowie admits that he put less emphasis on recovery in 2012 and 2013 than he did when he set the course record in 2011. No more ice baths, more beer etc. I think after the last two years, my heart wants Crowie to win but I know that he's a contender at best. Ultimately I really hope that he doesn't end up walking the marathon again.

Yes, he is racing ITU Long Course World Champs.

Came 5th in Long Course Champs... not sure how much to read into that.

Slow swim, slow bike, outran everyone by 7 minutes. Weird. I wonder if he had any flats? That is an A race for some of those French dudes.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team