Well, yes, he could be, but I don't think it will be easy with a healthy gomez out there

On top of the fact I think more and more non US countries will continue to produce better and better ITU athletes at younger ages. I believe Gomez and Brownlee are the first of this batch I think we will start seeing.

I disagree that being a world-class runner with a Kenyanlike body frame necessarily means that he will not be a world-class triathlete. If we were dealing with a pure power event like powerlifting, of course, they're likely mutually exclusive, but if you look at the builds of top triathletes, they are similar to the runners.

Again, I don't deny that there are differences in body type that are advantageous to being a pure cyclist, runner, etc. But I think it's far from a done deal that because you're a top flight runner that you can't be a top flight triguy. (Just ask Chris Lieto, Matt Reed, and other predominantly single-sport stars who successfully made the x-over to world-class triathlon.)

Take a pool of world-beating running genetics (of which in running Kenyans dominate by a HUGE margin), subselect the ones who can bike & run well, and you're dealing with a different breed of triathlete.

It's all speculation for now, but not altogether unreasonable.

theres more to the genetics of performance than "Builds"

height/weight are just two of 1000 physiological parameters.

the ones that make the best runner for 10k to marathon

are not the same as a good swimmer

or a good cyclist

or someone who can go hard for 8 hours without slowing down

just look at men and women and how they compare to each other at running vs cycling.

lots of women can keep up with non pro men at running

but on a bike? a half ass guy like me can hang with the pro women.

=)

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Uhm, that is *exactly* what you are doing, whether you realize it or not. You are diminishing his results - and the results of every other high level triathlete. Basically, you are saying that they're good, but only because Kenyans haven't yet discovered triathlon.

sweet!
I can outcycle kenyans!

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

You all are misinterpreting my statements.

OF COURSE you have to be a master of all sports to win at triathlon. I'm not denying that a pure single sport world champion would get crushed in triathlon without training.

But that "experiment" you quoted isn't even close. 1-2 years of training for only TWO Kenyans who likely had no access to pools let alone coaches for their whole life? Even an idiot would be able to predict that they wouldn't fare well.

Now get Kenyans as a nation to be culturally interested in triathlon and have the resources to train interested youth like they do in 1st world countries - now we're talking a fair comparison.

As well, Kenyan genetics clearly play a huge factor - this has been extensively researched. World class Kenyan marathoners come from a specific TRIBE in Kenya, not even all of Kenya, and from that tribe produce elite world class marathoners at a rate several hundred (actually, I think it is thousand) fold higher than other countries per capita. This is is extremely document and researched and published in Noakes' book "Lore of Running."

Find me a single elite triathlete (male) with a build like this:
Haile Gebrselassie
Personal information Date of birth 18 April 1973 (1973-04-18) (age 36) Place of birth Asella, Arsi Province, Ethiopia Height 1.65 m (5 ft 5 in)[1] Weight 56 kg (123 lb) [1]
For comparison:

Alistair Brownlee Country Great Britain Residence Leeds, Yorkshire, England[1] Nickname Al Date of birth 23 April 1988 (1988-04-23) (age 21)[1] Place of birth Leeds, Yorkshire, England[1] Height 1.76 m (5 ft 9 in)[2] Weight 62 kg (137 lb)[2]
And Alistair is SMALL. One of the smallest in the ITU, and yet he is 4 inches and 14lbs. (and he's only 21) bigger than Geb. That is a massive difference.

And what single sports did Matt Reed & Chris Lieto come from? Lieto was a water polo player (not a cyclist as you might assume). And Matt Reed is about as much of a born-and-raised triathlete as there is.

And where is your proof that Kenyans have superior genetics for running? There's actually never been any conclusive study that shows that, mostly because there isn't a running "gene." So it's not like there is something you do or do not have. Keep in mind that the most dominant female marathon runner of all time is a white lady from England. If you are going to argue it based on numbers, does that mean Americans have a genetic predisposition towards swimming? And the Russians towards gymnastics? And the Brazilians towards soccer? Or is it simply much, much, much more likely that it's just that the sport is really popular over there, so people do it. Running does have the distinction of being inherent, in many ways. Human beings know how to run. They don't "know" how to play soccer. So it certainly is possible that there could be a genetic advantage towards running and jumping and strength type sports (weight-lifting) which are sort of "natural" sports. But that's still largely speculative.

EDIT: Just because Tim Noakes "says so," that does not make it so. Tim Noakes has also said lots of things that people disagree with. That wouldn't be the first or last.

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

no, not a particular TRIBE, but a particular area, and the research into their genetics has found the good runners dont come from any particular genetic line.

also note that ethiopia has about as much success as kenya

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

And to counter your "extreme" example of Haile meaning that world-class marathoners are necessarily all 4'11 or super short:

Ryan Hall - world class pure marathoner
5'9, 130lbs

That's 1 inch in height and 7lbs off Alistair Brownlee. And Ryan Hall is a typical frame for marathoners. There are MANY more examples of guys (from Kenya) with similar stats.

It's only one of many intangible variables of course, but it would be premature to conclude that being a world-class marathoner gives you a body frame incompatible with being a world class triathlete if we're talking current top flight triathlon physiques.

And though Noakes does have controversial opinions, his stats regarding world champions per capita being MUCH higher from the Kenyan tribe is NOT debatable. If you doubt that, look at the results of any world-class road race and see how many Kenyas there are, and then look up how many Kenyans there are in that tribe. It's FAR in excess of being attributable solely to culture. (If it was just culture, ALL kenyan tribes would yield champions, but they don't.)

nobody debates that

but what is also true is that something like a million young boys run 50 miles per week in kenya

why should it be a surprise that they generate a lot of greate runners?

how many of the potential american running phenoms are instead playing Doom3, or baseball, or football?

hmm?

its simpy NOT true that science has established that genetics of kenyans and ethiopians is the prime driver of their running success.

if you google this a little bit you will see that there is conflicting evidence.

i suspect, like most things, that there is a small genetic factor, and a large cultural factor.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

NOT true - Kenyans do NOT run "millions of miles" to win. JAPANESE marathoners are well known as having the highest-volume type training.

As stated before, it is not uncommon for an up n coming Kenyan teenage old runner to run a 15:xx 5k with no training, and likely under 30 miles per week of actual running. These guys were born to be fast.

And as for Ethiopians = Kenyans in sheer #s of world class marathoners - also not true. It's true that the rest of the world is starting to make more great marathon showings, but in terms of overall #s, Kenya >> Ethiopia. Just scroll through the # of Kenyans vs Ethiopians:

http://www.marathonguide.com/...n=M&Sort=Country

This will be my last post on this, as we've gone way off subject, and I suspect there will be an endless # of other "opinions" to which I would have to provide yet another concrete data which will take way too much time. It's been a fun discussion though.

That's because you clearly have little to no understanding about what elite level triathlon is actually about. You are assuming that the genetics that make someone a good runner do not preclude them being a top level swimmer and cyclist (they don't need to be world class). And vice versa. That's a very flawed assumption. You are assuming, simply, that if you took someone who had the *supposed* genetic bias for running and taught them to swim and bike, that they could do so, and could actually do so reasonably well.

So let's take a pool of Kenyan kids, as you suggest. We can start in any order you like. Let's assume that we want to end up with the best runners, who can swim and bike well enough. But let's assume that ALL of the kids have the genetic make-up to be excellent runners. So we'll start with swimming. We coach them for 4 years, starting at a young age. At the end of four years, we weed out all the kids that can't meet a certain time standard. Then we have them start biking. We weed out the kids that don't respond well to cycling training. During this whole time, they are also running, but keep in mind that they will have to run LESS than they would otherwise, since they are swimming and biking. So at the end of our experiment - let's say it's 10 years - what makes you think that the kids who are left over are not the WORST runners of the bunch? And that even if their running is still better than an equivalent kid from GB, what makes you assume that they are definitely able to meet the time standards in the other sports such that they can even use that run in an actual race scenario?

Here's an interesting set of facts for you:
1) Elite swimmers tend to have long torsos relative to their overall height
2) Elite runners and cyclists tend to have long legs relative to their height
3) Elite runner tend to have long tibia (lower legs) relative to their overall leg length
4) Elite cyclists tend to have long femurs (upper legs) relative to their overall leg length

This has been extensively documented. The interesting this is that the physiological parameters that predispose someone to be world class at any one of the three sports necessarily precludes them from being world class at the others.

And that is really the thing that you've never addressed. Somehow, you are saying, running is purely genetics. You either have it or you don't. But ANYONE can be taught to swim and bike well enough. And even you are not saying "anyone," you are saying that a Kenyan kid who ends up being close to as good a swimmer and cyclist as Brownlee will automatically be a better runner. There's nothing to suggest that the kids who are able to swim and bike will then still be superior runners to an equivalent kid from Germany or Spain or England.

The one thing that there is overwhelming evidence to suggest is that the morphology that puts you at the highest level in each of the three individual sports that makes up triathlon does in fact preclude you from being world class at the other two. This strongly undercuts your suggestion that you can simply take people who are predisposed to be top level runners and logically assume that - even with appropriate resources - that they would somehow also be able to be top level triathletes.

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

you are mis-reading me

not kenyans running millions of miles

MILLIONS OF KENYANS running miles

I think you are letting a preconcieved notion get in the way of rational thinking here

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Except that many of the Kenyans grow up doing *regular* mileage - and FAST mileage, whereas the Japanese come to it late. I.e., they aren't running when they are 6, 7, 8 years old. And they also tend - as they do in many sports - to trend towards the extreme end of things. It's a case of too much. The Kenyans do an appropriate amount from a very young age - and they do it fast, because it's fun. 30 miles per week - starting when you are young - is a LOT. Even if it's not "training," they are still running a lot and running OFTEN. It's a part of life. Jack's point is really that they are running way more than a typical American kid of similar age. Furthermore, it's about *frequency*, not volume. And in terms of frequency, especially from a young age, the East Africans have it dialed.

Regarding your Ryan Hall example, you missed that Alistair is SMALL for a triathlete. I.e., he is atypically small. So if Alistair and Ryan are comparable in size, that still doesn't change the fact that Alistair himself is NOT typical of an elite triathlete. Geb is small, and Alistair is small, but Alistair is bigger than Geb. Ryan is "normal sized," Alistair and Ryan are the same size, but Alistair is much smaller than everyone else.

One area that you are correct on is the tribal connection (as much as the tribes are still "intact" genetically). The majority of the Ethiopians that are winning races are actually from the lineage of that Kenyan tribe. The border in Africa were drawn by the Europeans, and they are typically based around topographical features. That's why you have things like the tribal wars in Rwanda, because some dumbass in Europe decided that "this box" should be ONE country, despite the fact that said box enclosed two tribes that hate each other. In the same way, you have borders drawn that split up tribes. Gebrsellasie, for example, is "Ethiopian" by nationality, but "Kenyan" by lineage. So even the Ethiopians that you see winning are, in most cases, actually of that Kenyan lineage.

I also do not think it's at all off topic, because I think it's extremely relevant to look at what it would/will take to continue to push triathlon to the next level. Right now, it seems that your best bet is to be born an Australian woman named Emma (that's best odds - Snowsill, Carney, Moffatt) or to be born a British man (potentially with a first name that starts with S - Simon Lessing, Spencer Smith).

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

i bet if they get the money to put bikes under a lot of kenyan and ethiopian kids you might see some mountain jerseys for kenya at the tdf =)


the experiments for cycling alone have done ok

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Here was another experiment with taking some Kenyan runners and seeing if 70+ VO2Max would translate to the bike.

http://www.bicycling.com/...3-12-18111-1,00.html

Basically, they were able to climb very well (using Alpe d'Huez as a TT ) with limited training. Although they were able to
climb with top French amateurs...lack of experience/power meant that they always were drawn back on the flats.
Practice would certainly help that...but as others have pointed out in the thread: I don't know of any male 130 pound World class
triathletes, and it is quite a leap to think someone that size would be able to do a 50 minute IM swim or a sub-5 hour bike

But maybe a 2:30 run?? It would be fun to see someone close that fast, as long as I wasn't the one getting run down.

.

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" I take my gear out of my car and put my bike together. Tourists and locals are watching from sidewalk cafes. Non-racers. The emptiness of of their lives shocks me. "
(opening lines from Tim Krabbe's The Rider , 1978

in 10 yrs, we'll see how his records stack up against another dominant brit -- simon L -- who incidentally also won his first world title at 21.

Lets just hope he can keep it up until London 2012 ;-)


Whats interesting is his run background which seems to have included felling running and cross country. I wonder how much the strength eliment required in both translates into his triathlon running success. Obviously triathlon running requires that elimant of strength to run off the bike.

He appears to have the complete package which gives him the ability to win on a variety of courses. He seems to be pretty useful on the bike which also begs the question as to how successful he could be at longer races?

rumors? the dude was popped for EPO last year, and not allowed to race at the Olympics. That questions his entire career, especially his World Champs win. In my mind, once a cheat always a cheat. Eastern Europe's drug testing lags far behind the US and Europe's.

Team Commonwealth would do real well regardless of gender.

A "Commonwealth" man from NZL (e.g. Docherty, Carter), AUS (Robertson, Kahlefelt), GBR (Lessing, Smith, Don, Brownlee), CAN (Whitfield) has a good shot based on WC and Olympic medals count.

The list of women is just as impressive.

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First with the head, then with the heart. -- HG

Indeed. The Commonwealth Games Triathlon is an extraordinarily competitive event. On a relative scale (i.e., as compared with the Olympic race), it's probably one of the most competitive events in the whole games. Shame that it's not on the schedule for India. But I guess they just felt there was no suitable venue.

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

Not quite sure you need Kenyans to see the fastest 'run' times in Triathlon; see Ritzenhein and Tegenkamp.

I don't know how much I would credit cross country running. He has been pretty serious about triathlon for a number of years now.

so what do elite triatheltes tend to have, we have Ian Thorpe Mike Phelps looking swimmer types, scrawny runner types with long legs relative to their height. Cyclists are also leggy and have long upper legs. The guys who do well in the TT have looked a little more muscular as well, Olano, Cancellara, is this relevant or did they just happen to be bigger guys while having the other characteristics.

And with all those body types is there an ideal body type for triathlon. This would differ depending on the distance but given the lenght of the bike leg in IM one would think that IM would favour natural cyclsits as it is the leg that consumes the most time, but it seems to favour the runners

And yet again the thread takes a turn towards Kona.........