I hope he does well. It has been fun watching him mix it up with the leaders....until he gets to the run.

I bought the WTS series during the Slowtwitch sale. One of my better purchases in triathlon. It is much easier to hit those hard intervals on the trainer while watching the ITU guys turn themselves inside out.

Highly recommend.

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Jason
None of the secrets of success will work unless you do.

i'm rooting for him.

The thing I don't know is how individual is that age where you hit your speed ceiling. He's only 22, but likely with tons of miles. I wonder how close 32 is to his potential (while staying strong in s/b). 30 seconds? A minute? More?

I'm definitely rooting for him. Bolton seems like a good guy to help with that.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I agree. I think for Rio 2016, given the rigours of the bike course, Ben Kanute is America's best choice. His swim makes it likely he could be part of the front bike pack, and as we saw in Kitzbuhel 2013, he copes well on steep climbs. What I suspect will happen is that if the Brownlees and Gomez push it on the first lap or two, the front pack will disintegrate and a new front pack of 3-5 will form that are unlikely to be caught. Whether anyone of them will be able to run after 8 laps is questionable! A top 10 for Kanute is realistic I think.

I think Joe Maloy is probably our best bet for a high US finish. At the end of the day, we need an ace runner, and I think Joe is the best runner of our current ITU group. Unless Alan Webb really pulls something out (doubt it, unfortunately). Kanute has the ability to set himself up in a good place in T2, but I just can't see him laying out a 30:xx 10k, which is what it's going to take to stay in the picture.

I think our hope for a (men's) medal went down with Lukas.

The results this year don't bear out your enthusiasm for Maloy.

5th fastest American runner at Cape Town behind Shoemaker, Jefferson, McDowell and Billington.

Kanute outran him in Auckland.

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"Good genes are not a requirement, just the obsession to beat ones brains out daily"...the Griz

The Rio 2016 bike course is so tough that it doesn't matter how good a runner an athlete is, unless they bike with the best, they will be non-factors.

Kanute is a better bet for that particular course. On London 2012, then Maloy would probably be a wiser choice.

Malloy could be run 27:30 off the bike and it wouldn't matter if he's not front pack for the swim

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Talking about the importance of the run at Rio, there was a recent BBC interview with Alistair Brownlee who said he has not managed to regain the run form he had in 2012. But what he also said was that Rio 2016 is going to be a very different kettle of fish (meaning there won't be any fast 10Ks after the bike.) I think it is significant that the Brownlees and their training partners have been doing more biking in the last eight months than before, and also spending fortnights at a time climbing every available mountain in southern Spain. I think this is part of a long term strategy to be absolutely prepared for the Rio bike course which (as I have said before) contains 80% more vertical climbing than any ITU course in recent memory.

He's certainly our best hope for having a quality domestic to drag a fast runner to a top 10 finish...

We'll know a lot more after he test event (hoping for TV of some sort) but if it is as hilly as is being described, not sure if we have any significantly faster runners than him who can swim towards the front and hold on to his wheel on the bike.

I'd love to see Webb have a huge jump in the swim, but it seems like a big ask at this point.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Dragging a fast runner is possible on a flat course. But on a 0.7 meters ascent with pitches at 20% or 300 meters at 16% (totaling 92 meters of vertical ascent), eight times each, the fast runner is really left to their own devices. Is there anyone who can run fast after that sort of punishment on the bike?

If I'm reading correctly, those are short and steep - yes? No long grinds?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Yes. These guys are so fit that no matter the extent of the 60 minute bike effort it will have minimal impact on their run. You could race them up the Zoncolan and they'll still run near capacity. Once they're 3 minutes into the run the bike will be ancient history and their running legs will be doing what they've been trained to do.

So says I based on nothing but respect for the amazing performances these guys manage across each of swim, bike, run.

Even with 2 hills, athletes will have some time in the downhills to recover... I believe that the long flat section will let athletes for the back come back easily.

Somebody can remind me the selection policies for the USAT? Is it Top 8 at Rio or Chicago?

Also, looking at the next world cup, the place for the Rio Test event seems to be undecided.

Hunter Kemper is still in the course...

Great call on Hunter - should be able to interesting to see what he does whenever he hits the circuit again. Trying to remember if he has been a front pack swimmer recently.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

He is racing this week end in China. He just finished 3rd in Monterrey last week end. He is still the fastest runner (US)

Yes, there are two possible spots in Rio Test Event - top 8 and you're in. If one or two are missed there then one auto-qual spot will be in Chicago for the ITU Grand Final (again, top 8). If there's still a spot up for grabs then it'll be at a TBD Oly distance event between March and May 2016.

"The place for the Rio Test Event seems to be undecided" - I think the local organizers have the course in mind and they are confident but it has issues (water quality). So there are tweaks that can happen but the Test Event is intended to be the Olympic course and they're understandably serious about running a race in August of 2015 that will be the course in 2016.

Speaking of Hunter, he got third on Sunday at the CAMTRI Championships in Monterrey. Jason Petersen has also had a great breakthrough recently with a 2nd in Barbados and 9th in Monterrey. I love that we're talking more of Kanute and it seems like the depth of the US men is looking brighter - and the farther back we look (U23, Junior, Youth) the better it seems.

Ian

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Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

Oh sorry, I want to say, what's the selection policies for the test event in Rio.

I know that French triathlon and GBTri are not using ranking but also wrote selection policies to get his start.

Only US guy to ever be world #1 ranked (draft-legal era), right?

It'll be interesting to see how the test event plays out - who gets to start, etc.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I guess you missed watching kitz 2 years ago. you are delusional if you think a brutal bike course has minimal effect on even the fittest guys on the planet.

In fairness, not your standard run course either! I really, really, really hope they bring back that course. What if they took Abu Dhabi's money, showed some stock footage of those glistening buildings rising up from the desert, then called it "Abu Dhabi presents: WTS Kitzbuehel"

Sounds like Rio won't be a sustained climb like Kitz, but interesting to note the top 5: A Brownlee, Mola, crafty 'ol Sven Riederer, Schoeman and Sissons. Swim didn't seem to matter too much on that race - all about the climb.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

i agree. that was one of the most fun races to watch but i know that a lot of the athletes hated it (which isn't surprising given how wrecked most of them were at the finish line!) i think it's safe to say that no matter what the course is, the brownlees will be at the front.

Really. I think history shows that hard bike courses favour strength runners and produce slower times.