These start lists are long. Will everyone really be there? Plus, there's more women than men. Not fair, just saying.
Wanted to bring attention to one of two times this year we'll see (almost) all of the best toe the line together. Crazy stacked fields on both sides. Let's break it down (women in a separate thread due to length):
Who are your top 5 for men?
Quick Question:
Who got 3rd and 4th last year? The white night Ruedi Wild and the 2008 Champ Terrenzo Bozzone. People forget that.
Quick Notes:
Definitely sucks AB is out of the race due to surgery. Frodo has decided to race a few weeks earlier for what we can only assume is a stout appearance fee. He'd probably be in contention for the win, so why not race? If we've learned anything from these 2, having an Olympic gold medal means you must try to avoid losing for the rest of your career. Cherry pick races you designed or get a flat if you hear Lionel grunting up a hill behind you. Seriously though, what do you think Frodo was thinking when Lionel was shouting profanities after he saw him stalled?
Goes pretty in depth below, but no one is touching Gomez in this race. He won't be first out of the water and he won't be first off the bike, but he'll be right there. He's by far the best runner and races well in the heat. Ran a 30:XX two weeks ago and 70.3 worlds is his priority this year. There are sooooo many contenders, but at the end of the day, everyone else is racing for 2nd place. On the other hand, there are exactly three people in this world who can drop Gomez on the bike and still run, AB, Kienle, and Frodo. One of them is in this race, can he make it happen again?
Let's talk dark horses like 3rd place last year, Ruedi Wild. He's had a decent year, winning 3 70.3s, but I don't even mention him below. Many many contenders with interchangeable names, but it's still Gomez race to lose.
Other notables not racing:
Josh Amberger - learned to run last winter and being a top swimmer and very high W/kg, it's hard not to imagine him in the front pack off the bike and very near the front in the last 10k. Been awesome watching him grow and best of luck to him at Kona?.
Lionel Sanders - Love this guy, but seriously, has anyone told him Kona doesn't have a 20m draft zone? He'd probably be battling it out with Gomez and Kienle if it wasn't for that pesky up river swim. 400W up lookout mountain would certainly reduce any gaps, but we'll be left always wondering, what if?
Andy Potts, Cody Beals - basically most on the ITU Penticton start list. Luckily on the women's side, we have a lot more crossover with women in both events (all 3 counting Kona).
USA Men:
Quite a large contingent compared to just Brad last year and being on home soil definitely helps that. Here are my US standouts. I think only one of them has the chops to place top 5 in this race.
Jesse Thomas - If you follow him on Strava, he's been crushing some swim yardage with multiple 11k yard days. Most of it was with paddles and fins, but I'm sure it still counts. Will this put him in the front swim pack? If he makes the front pack, can he hang on the climb being 180lb? The climb is so early, I'd like to think so. Always a threat on the run. He just seems so happy these days and you need to be hungry to win races.
TO - Such a likable guy. Front pack swimmer, good cyclist, but can he run a 1:10-1:11? He did run a 1:14 in Santa Rosa. His result at Boulder was unchallenged, so maybe he'll surprise us although I think his odds in Kona are much higher. I want him to do well (because 'Merica) but I would say top 10-15 is great for him on the day.
Leiferman - Chris has been knocking on the door a while now. He's like a Matt Hanson who can swim and bike. 2nd to Lionel at Oceanside with a faster run. Any data out there on this Blue bike though? He's my dark horse pick for a top 5. Top 4 on a P5X (fastest bike of all time).
Kanute - He helped AB steal a gold medal at Rio on the bike, and I hope Alistair rewarded him handsomely. Also, how can you not love this guy after the Drinking Episode? Seems to have learned a ton since St. George and PR, but a 1:18 ain't going to cut it here. Front pack swimmer, solid W/kg up the mountain. Expect to see him in the lead group off the bike.
How will it play out?
Swim:
I don't think the current will break up the race for the pros. Thinking to WTS races, most guys can fake it for one lap, and then lose more time on lap 2. The difference here is they can float the back half.
Any break up favors the Australians and ITU guys. Would love to see someone go for it like Amberger last year.
Appo, Gomez, Tim Reed, Kanute, Costes, Raelert, Don, McMahon, Wild, + many other nonfactors all exit swim together.
T1:
Clustercluck
Bike:
Almost wish I wasn't in the race (not to brag), so I could watch live. I think we see the same group + Dreitz mentioned from the swim together at the top of the first two climbs. Would love to see someone like Mau Mendez (Xterra champ, Texas70.3) making some noise early on the bike.
Appo has raced the back half before, ultimately losing to Kienle in 2016. I see Appo or Don trying to make a move on the bike. Gomez, Reed, and several others will be content to leave it to the run.
Last year, Kienle was at the front less than 40 minutes into the ride. Does anyone seeing this not happening again? I say yes. I think he's in the lead at the top of the second climb.
T2: Kienle and Dreitz with a less than 60s lead on Mendez, Appo, Don, Clavel, McMahon, Kanute, and Gomez. Another 2 minutes to a massive group behind.
Run:
Kienle with a small lead, but ultimately I think we see another wet half marathon, like last year. It's going to be hot! People going out too hard and imploding. This is where a guy like Leiferman, coming off slightly behind the group, having paced the bike, can start moving up. He won Austin on almost a 100 degree day last fall, so he's well versed in the heat.
Gomez reaches the lead group by 5k and in the last 10k we see Gomez pull away and win by 45s.
Here's my top 5:
1. Gomez
2. Appleton
3. Kienle
4. Don
5. Leiferman
Who ya got?
Wanted to bring attention to one of two times this year we'll see (almost) all of the best toe the line together. Crazy stacked fields on both sides. Let's break it down (women in a separate thread due to length):
Who are your top 5 for men?
Quick Question:
Who got 3rd and 4th last year? The white night Ruedi Wild and the 2008 Champ Terrenzo Bozzone. People forget that.
Quick Notes:
Definitely sucks AB is out of the race due to surgery. Frodo has decided to race a few weeks earlier for what we can only assume is a stout appearance fee. He'd probably be in contention for the win, so why not race? If we've learned anything from these 2, having an Olympic gold medal means you must try to avoid losing for the rest of your career. Cherry pick races you designed or get a flat if you hear Lionel grunting up a hill behind you. Seriously though, what do you think Frodo was thinking when Lionel was shouting profanities after he saw him stalled?
Goes pretty in depth below, but no one is touching Gomez in this race. He won't be first out of the water and he won't be first off the bike, but he'll be right there. He's by far the best runner and races well in the heat. Ran a 30:XX two weeks ago and 70.3 worlds is his priority this year. There are sooooo many contenders, but at the end of the day, everyone else is racing for 2nd place. On the other hand, there are exactly three people in this world who can drop Gomez on the bike and still run, AB, Kienle, and Frodo. One of them is in this race, can he make it happen again?
Let's talk dark horses like 3rd place last year, Ruedi Wild. He's had a decent year, winning 3 70.3s, but I don't even mention him below. Many many contenders with interchangeable names, but it's still Gomez race to lose.
Other notables not racing:
Josh Amberger - learned to run last winter and being a top swimmer and very high W/kg, it's hard not to imagine him in the front pack off the bike and very near the front in the last 10k. Been awesome watching him grow and best of luck to him at Kona?.
Lionel Sanders - Love this guy, but seriously, has anyone told him Kona doesn't have a 20m draft zone? He'd probably be battling it out with Gomez and Kienle if it wasn't for that pesky up river swim. 400W up lookout mountain would certainly reduce any gaps, but we'll be left always wondering, what if?
Andy Potts, Cody Beals - basically most on the ITU Penticton start list. Luckily on the women's side, we have a lot more crossover with women in both events (all 3 counting Kona).
USA Men:
Quite a large contingent compared to just Brad last year and being on home soil definitely helps that. Here are my US standouts. I think only one of them has the chops to place top 5 in this race.
Jesse Thomas - If you follow him on Strava, he's been crushing some swim yardage with multiple 11k yard days. Most of it was with paddles and fins, but I'm sure it still counts. Will this put him in the front swim pack? If he makes the front pack, can he hang on the climb being 180lb? The climb is so early, I'd like to think so. Always a threat on the run. He just seems so happy these days and you need to be hungry to win races.
TO - Such a likable guy. Front pack swimmer, good cyclist, but can he run a 1:10-1:11? He did run a 1:14 in Santa Rosa. His result at Boulder was unchallenged, so maybe he'll surprise us although I think his odds in Kona are much higher. I want him to do well (because 'Merica) but I would say top 10-15 is great for him on the day.
Leiferman - Chris has been knocking on the door a while now. He's like a Matt Hanson who can swim and bike. 2nd to Lionel at Oceanside with a faster run. Any data out there on this Blue bike though? He's my dark horse pick for a top 5. Top 4 on a P5X (fastest bike of all time).
Kanute - He helped AB steal a gold medal at Rio on the bike, and I hope Alistair rewarded him handsomely. Also, how can you not love this guy after the Drinking Episode? Seems to have learned a ton since St. George and PR, but a 1:18 ain't going to cut it here. Front pack swimmer, solid W/kg up the mountain. Expect to see him in the lead group off the bike.
How will it play out?
Swim:
I don't think the current will break up the race for the pros. Thinking to WTS races, most guys can fake it for one lap, and then lose more time on lap 2. The difference here is they can float the back half.
Any break up favors the Australians and ITU guys. Would love to see someone go for it like Amberger last year.
Appo, Gomez, Tim Reed, Kanute, Costes, Raelert, Don, McMahon, Wild, + many other nonfactors all exit swim together.
T1:
Clustercluck
Bike:
Almost wish I wasn't in the race (not to brag), so I could watch live. I think we see the same group + Dreitz mentioned from the swim together at the top of the first two climbs. Would love to see someone like Mau Mendez (Xterra champ, Texas70.3) making some noise early on the bike.
Appo has raced the back half before, ultimately losing to Kienle in 2016. I see Appo or Don trying to make a move on the bike. Gomez, Reed, and several others will be content to leave it to the run.
Last year, Kienle was at the front less than 40 minutes into the ride. Does anyone seeing this not happening again? I say yes. I think he's in the lead at the top of the second climb.
T2: Kienle and Dreitz with a less than 60s lead on Mendez, Appo, Don, Clavel, McMahon, Kanute, and Gomez. Another 2 minutes to a massive group behind.
Run:
Kienle with a small lead, but ultimately I think we see another wet half marathon, like last year. It's going to be hot! People going out too hard and imploding. This is where a guy like Leiferman, coming off slightly behind the group, having paced the bike, can start moving up. He won Austin on almost a 100 degree day last fall, so he's well versed in the heat.
Gomez reaches the lead group by 5k and in the last 10k we see Gomez pull away and win by 45s.
Here's my top 5:
1. Gomez
2. Appleton
3. Kienle
4. Don
5. Leiferman
Who ya got?
