2016 TDF Discussion Thread

Jun 23, 16 8:30

Post #1 of 20 (2345 views)

Decided it might be time to discuss the 2016 TDF. I have created a Slowtwitch league at velogames: code 762316110810 .

In general i think the TDF is one of the most overrated races of the year, but at least we have Froome, Quintana, Conti, Porte, and Aru all coming in on good form. The hilly nature of the race will ensure Sagan another green jersey. With the Olympic's coming up i would expect to see several big names drop out quickly and anybody else with serious track/TT ambitions. Val v and Nibils are both going to be tired and cruise through in prep for the Olympics. This is really a show between Froome, Quintana, and Conti, i think Porte is just that 1% off the top three. The big questions is: can Froome not fall over? The bigger question: can he stop staring at his stem? That might help him with his first issue.

As for the sprinters, we will see several abandon due to the mountains and some pull the plug for the Olympics. Don't count Cav out this year, he is looking exceptionally fast right now as he has been doing a lot of time on the track. Griepel, Kristoff, Kittel, Cav, and Sagan are 5 premier sprinters with another 5-6 strong but less productive sprinters.

Predictions:

Podium

1. Contador
2. Froome
3. Quintana

Wildcards: Porte is looking very good and he just might have an exceptional Tour.

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Jun 23, 16 8:45

Post #2 of 20 (2328 views)

Since many seemed to appreciate it last year, I was planning on doing daily stage threads again this year......if deemed unnecessary, we can just use this thread....

As for predictions....this is gonna be a cake walk for Froome. Tour is all-but-over after the first mountain stage (barring a crash or illness, obviously). Sagan will take the maillot verde and it is anyone's guess who takes the polka-dots. It is a real shame that the mountain classification has become a gambler's affair and is hardly reflective of who is the "best" climber. Almost pointless trying to predict who wins that jersey.....but if forced to pick a name, I'll go with Alliphillppe.

Final podium:

Froome
Quintana
Contador

Porte will blow big time in the 2nd week, as always. Without the TTT, I don;t see Teejay being a factor this year....he benefited greatly from BMC's time gains last year. The wildcard will be Aru, IMO. His stage win in the Dauphine was impressive, but his consistency was troubling. Was it all a gambit?

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Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Runningwithbees

Jun 23, 16 8:47

Post #3 of 20 (2326 views)

I am back to defend my title, but I am not very confident in my team this year. I tried to middle load and am not sure my hopeful sleepers will be any use.

As for the real tour, I am hopeful TVG responds to the dual leadership role and manages to battle through his one or two bad days but I have my doubts.

I think Quintana needs to attack early and often this year. Last year I felt like he left it too late to attack Froome in the mountains, but I will happily concede that it is way easier for me to say that from my office chair.

I haven't really looked at the course at all for this year but if Froome, Quintana and Contador are all near their best it should be a good time.

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Runningwithbees] [ In reply to ]

Jun 23, 16 8:56

Post #4 of 20 (2312 views)

Runningwithbees wrote:

I think Quintana needs to attack early and often this year. Last year I felt like he left it too late to attack Froome in the mountains, but I will happily concede that it is way easier for me to say that from my office chair.

Quintana needs his team and himself to not fall asleep and lose time in dumb places. That takes less energy than heroic mountain attacks.

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jun 23, 16 9:00

Post #5 of 20 (2304 views)

Froome is the obvious choice, i just do not enjoy his riding style and find him incredibly boring to watch, thus i am going with the long shot. I do wonder if he peaked too early and might suffer the last week, he looked very strong last week while AC was a bit off, could be a good sign for AC to hold off his peak form for two more weeks. I would not discount the importance of loosing Porte, he would bridge attack after attack, get dropped, get back on and drive the group another few k's all while Froome just sits in.

I am really pulling for Cav to get a stage or two, he is so close to the record. Similarly i hope Sagan can provide some entertainment with his gutsy riding style and nab a win or two in the stripes.

Daily threads can work well, i just wanted to get the velogames league going.

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Jun 23, 16 11:13

Post #6 of 20 (2232 views)

skybot to the lead the Alien to a USPS style trouncing of the field. Like them, hate them, fear them...it's how I see it turning out but I really do hope for something as exciting as the Giro....

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Jun 29, 16 19:11

Post #7 of 20 (2078 views)

Teams have made final rosters so a good time to check to make sure somebody did not slip through the cracks. I had Kiwat and had to remove him, actually thought he might have a chance at a few stages. Decided to also go with Kristoff as my primary sprinter, not sure why but something tells me he is hungry and he has shown some very good form.

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 8:50

Post #8 of 20 (1977 views)

Dreading watching the sky train for weeks.. boring. Froome for win, which I also am dreading

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 8:58

Post #9 of 20 (1968 views)

Shouldn't you be discussing this on a cycling forum?

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/Slowtwitch_Forums_C1/Triathlon_Forum_F1/Swimming_forums_do_exist%2C_they_should_be_used.__P5991260/?page=unread#unread

Swimming Workout of the Day:

Favourite Swim Sets:

2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [tlc13] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 9:06

Post #10 of 20 (1953 views)

tlc13 wrote:

Dreading watching the sky train for weeks.. boring. Froome for win, which I also am dreading

Agreed. Could be a yawn-fest this year.

Yellow: Froome. Green: Sagan. Not exactly groundbreaking.

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [dado0583] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 9:17

Post #11 of 20 (1934 views)

Eh I think it's simply hard as hell to do a bike race of that magnitude and not have a bad day. Of course then that makes it "boring" to watch and we all consider it a let down. Which is kinda refreshing to read the pre race comments and for most to realize this race is far less of a race then what we hope/think it should be.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [dado0583] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 9:25

Post #12 of 20 (1916 views)

dado0583 wrote:

tlc13 wrote:

Dreading watching the sky train for weeks.. boring. Froome for win, which I also am dreading

Agreed. Could be a yawn-fest this year.

Yellow: Froome. Green: Sagan. Not exactly groundbreaking.

I really hope Contador can create some excitement. Love him or hate him, love watching him ride. However, based upon his Dauphine performance, doubt he can overcome Sky/Froome.

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Brooks Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 9:32

Post #13 of 20 (1900 views)

Brooks Doughtie wrote:

Eh I think it's simply hard as hell to do a bike race of that magnitude and not have a bad day. Of course then that makes it "boring" to watch and we all consider it a let down.

The other Grand Tours, in my opinion, are more interesting. Just because a race is 3 weeks long doesn't make it boring. Nibbles being ~5 minutes down after 18 stages at the Giro and then clawing his way to the top of the podium was something we haven't seen in the TdF in a while. The past 3 TdFs the main drama has been waiting to see if Froome falls off his bike. Which happened 1/3 times.

Quote:

Which is kinda refreshing to read the pre race comments and for most to realize this race is far less of a race then what we hope/think it should be.

I'm not sure what you mean there. What pre race comments?

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Power13] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 9:40

Post #14 of 20 (1890 views)

Power13 wrote:

Since many seemed to appreciate it last year, I was planning on doing daily stage threads again this year......if deemed unnecessary, we can just use this thread....

As for predictions....this is gonna be a cake walk for Froome. Tour is all-but-over after the first mountain stage (barring a crash or illness, obviously). Sagan will take the maillot verde and it is anyone's guess who takes the polka-dots. It is a real shame that the mountain classification has become a gambler's affair and is hardly reflective of who is the "best" climber. Almost pointless trying to predict who wins that jersey.....but if forced to pick a name, I'll go with Alliphillppe.

Final podium:

Froome
Quintana
Contador

Porte will blow big time in the 2nd week, as always. Without the TTT, I don;t see Teejay being a factor this year....he benefited greatly from BMC's time gains last year. The wildcard will be Aru, IMO. His stage win in the Dauphine was impressive, but his consistency was troubling. Was it all a gambit?

No please daily stage threads which tend to flow better and discuss the day's tactics. After a while no one opens the single thread that discusses everything related to the tour. You did a great job and if you can, please do it again. It created a lot of positive interactive discussion!

Coming back to this thread, with the course profile, I am not ready to hand over the yellow to Froome "already". Lots of hilly topography so should be interesting. Personally I hope Contrador can pull off a win as I have a soft spot for anyone who survived a brain aneurysm (this is close to family genetics and surviving family members)

Dev

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [trail] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 9:54

Post #15 of 20 (1875 views)

Yes but I think most acknowledge the giro is much more exciting than the tour at this point. I think the Tour is stuck with how it plays out because many really only ride for this race. Yes there are those that go for the double but most usually fail at one *most* of the time.

Eta: I also think the course with how it is planned causes lack of turbulence with the GC guys. The prerace chatter from the fans on this thread. No GC rider or team will concede anything publicity, we all know that. Everyone thinks their guy is going to have an outstanding race and of course that's the attitude you have to have going in

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Last edited by: Brooks Doughtie: Jun 30, 16 10:02

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Brooks Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 10:29

Post #16 of 20 (1840 views)

Brooks Doughtie wrote:

Eh I think it's simply hard as hell to do a bike race of that magnitude and not have a bad day

Agreed, although we've seen in the past that Froome on a bad day can still limit the damage that someone like Nairo can put into him. Team Sky are just looking too strong for Froome's bad day to be worse than others. Look at the end of the Dauphine where you had 4 Sky riders all still together when all the other teams had been blown to bits. I don't think Nairo and co can match them

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 10:36

Post #17 of 20 (1831 views)

Ron_Burgundy wrote:

The big questions is: can Froome not fall over? The bigger question: can he stop staring at his stem? That might help him with his first issue.

These are the only storylines I plan to follow.

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [any/all] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 11:21

Post #18 of 20 (1789 views)

predictions:

this is gonna be a cake walk for Froome - agreed
Sagan will take the maillot verde - agreed, if he wants it.
I heard that he was going to forego interim sprints for stage wins. he could probably do both though. dang he's good

I'll go with Alliphillppe ... (for) the polka-dots - good choice. perhaps a Bardet or similar.
I think Quintana needs to attack early and often this year. Last year I felt like he left it too late to attack Froome - agreed

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Jun 30, 16 16:01

Post #19 of 20 (1714 views)

Thanks for starting the Thread & velogames league

I made my usual slowtwitch league on velogames, but since I didn't see a thread I never got to post the league number, so I will join yours.

I agree the top 3 are Contador/Froome/Quintana

I think this is Quintana's year, also think Pinot/Bardet may surprise us as well.

Would love to see Craddock up there on one of the mountain stages.

Sagan has the green jersey locked! Bardet/Aru for the polka dots

I also hate the TDF, but I am still very excited. TVG will have the same story but would love to be surprised.

Last edited by: ChrisC42780: Jun 30, 16 16:02

Re: 2016 TDF Discussion Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]

Jul 25, 16 19:00

Post #20 of 20 (1523 views)

Since I normally end up at the bottom of these things, I just have to take this opportunity to say:

AYHSMB

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