I don't think it is a big deal. I think we all secretly believe we've got a shot a qualifying, regardless of what you've done in the past. I know I do. I just keep it to myself (most of the time).

Now, if this dude is morbidly obese or something then it is a different story.

IF he goes 4;45 on several 1/2's and they are not all Clearwater, I would say he had a very bad day at LP. Now whether he can lop off 2 hours, that is another story, but there are many that only go his speed for a 1/2 and break 10 hours in an ironman, so not entirely out of the question..Lots of factors to consider, like does he get better with longer stuff, or more of a speedster? 12 hours means nothing, i can give you some really good pros that have done 12 hours before. It is all about context..

If he is consistently 4:45 in halfIM (assuming some of those have hills), he needs to spend a lot more time training and less time talking. With consistent 4:45 speed, I'd bet he could get to the 10:30 range in IMLP (based on personal experience - long ago).

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kangaroo -- please do not read or respond to any of my posts

"I think we all secretly believe we've got a shot a qualifying"

Agreed. I guess it's just the volume and bombasity with which this guy talks about it that struck me.

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I proudly DO NOT post my workouts on Facebook!!!

Based on past results, I'd say he's better at the short stuff. Top of the AG in those races. Bottom FOP/Top MOP at the longer stuff.

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I proudly DO NOT post my workouts on Facebook!!!

It all depends on how much training he devoted to getting to 12 hrs. If he doubles his training time then why not?

I'm familiar with the guy you're talking about.

I also know a guy who went ~11:45 while sick with the flu. That's a big cup of HTFU. I can barely get out of bed when I'm sick...this guy goes and does an IM. That was the only IM he's ever done. He's plenty fast to go sub 10 though.

I'm familiar with the guy you're talking about.

Me too...we've seen lots of those guys on ST.

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blood, sweat...and big gears

I hated every minute of training, but I said, ''Don't quit. Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion.''
- Muhammad Ali

Based on the times you have posted, I have no idea.
I would want to know how the 12 hour day went for him. What was he expecting to do? Did he have a bad day? A good day? Mechanical? Injuries? Nearly drown during the swim? Was his nutrition off?
What were is IMLP splits? Was he on target to go faster, but blew up on the last part of the run?

Was he riding a Speed Concept with a Sub 9 disc and 1080 FC front?

I'm trying to be discreet and displaying his splits would identify him, but no, he doesn't ride a SC.

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I proudly DO NOT post my workouts on Facebook!!!

Based on past results, I'd say he's better at the short stuff.

You see this a lot these days. Some not bad, Olympic and 1/2 IM Times but much, much slower and well off par IM times, but it's always the IM races that are the "A" races and get all the focus, and I always have to ask why?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Were his splits evenly spaced out for a 12 hour finish?
1:15 swim.
6:00 bike
4:45 run

Or did he fall apart somewhere?

Assuming these splits, could he find 2 hours?
A 4:45 "run" - means he walked a bit. Could probably find an hour there if he is able run the whole thing. If he spent a bunch of time in the bathroom, he could save time there.

Bike - An hour might be a lot to save for a 6 hour guy. Maybe find 20-30 minutes thru better preparation.

Swim - 5 minutes can probably be found. 15 might be a stretch.

My goal at IMWI this past year as to go sub 12:00 around 11:45-11:50, and then work on qualifying in 2011 or 2012 with PROPER training (hiring a coach, smarter traing, etc). I made that goal based on times in my training, and where I felt comfortable with my pacing. Unfortunately I went 12:57:xx with a bad run, first marathon was a learning experience the whole way around. Do I still think I could/can qualify for Kona? Of course, but it was a reality and ego check last fall to know exactly what it takes to get their. Now focusing on 2012 as my return to IM I don't expect to qualify or have a time goal right now, I would just rather have the best and smartest training lead me to race IMWI successfully and go from there. Like I said I want to qualify for Kona, but with my last IM I have re-evaluated my goals with a new timeline and have my ego in check. Maybe this kid is a step ahead of me and has learned from his mistakes and improving on them?

What it really comes down to in my opinion is if you want it go get it. Does he need to be a big talking to boost his ego? Perhaps

I am not sure why you or anybody else cares.

Do I still think I could/can qualify for Kona? Of course, but it was a reality and ego check last fall to know exactly what it takes to get their.

How long have you been training and racing triathlons( how many years)?

What is your back-ground in endurance sports?

Was this your first IM?

How many sprint/Olympic and 1/2 IM races have you done?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Just throw his ass under the bus! You all ready got good start .

Thom

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Slowtwitch bitchist place on planet earth

Cuz they cost so damn much!

I'm not sure why you felt the need to reply. But thanks for your two cents.

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I proudly DO NOT post my workouts on Facebook!!!

I think your question is more about getting faster- which is certainly possible. I did it backwards and went from 12 hours at Kona in 1986 to 10 hours in Canada in the 1990's, roughly ten years later.

I had a lot of help since, in my first IM, we didn't have aerobars or sports nutrition. We also didn't know much about training. Now I think there is too much information about training and the new challenge is to distill it to useful information.

Your man could do it if he applies himself.

The part of your post that stuck out to me- and I think to you too, is the fellow verbalizing this ambition well in advance of delivering it. That is abrasive to me for some reason.

I know there are two extremes of ambition and motivation:

1. Guys who trumpet their ambitions: Boxers who say they will win a fight, politicians who say they will win an election. I think this oration is really a part of mental preparation and "guilting" or forcing themselves into walking the plank and following through. It may also be an external form of visualization. If you say something enough, you start to believe it, if you believe it you can acheive it. There are few things in life that are as straightforward as a triathlon or Ironman, and that is part of the allure. If you believe you can, you likely can.

2. People who hold their cards close to their chest- who don't trumpet their ambitions. I remember when I was doing a terrible job racing in Europe our team director told us about a Belgian ethos in bicycle racing, a "sacred way": Talk with your legs. Our Director (His name was Pierre, of course...) told us to never, ever boast. To never announce your intentions before a race. To play it cool. Be a professional, but play it cool. You go into the race with clear ambition and clear motives but you don't trumpet those. I'm not sure why that spoke to me, but it did. Your ambitions are something personal and delicate- you cultivate them slowly and with great effort. They are delicate and intimate. They aren't something to be treated casually or roughly. They are serious. They command respect.

Two different mindsets, many different athletes. Perhaps incorrect to suggest one is right and one is wrong. Better to suggest it takes all types...

Good thread. Thank you Sir (or Ma'am, as the case may be).

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

My ironman track record:

12:05
10:25
9:46
10:51
9:46
12:05
10:53
9:36

I've got 2 of them in 2011 - I'd say that 9:00, 9:15, 9:30, and 12:00 are all equally likely.


Go big or walk it home.

I'm sure you have better things to do than knock this guy; maybe he's going to knock the next one out.

/shrug.

9:36...

Damn....

That's awesome.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Because Mike, there's only room for ONE blowhard at my pool talking about how well he is going to do at Ironman this year! And I already have that COVERED.

I went from 11:56 in IMLP 2009 to 9:58 at IMC 2010. It can be done.

I was pissed with my IMLP result despite being my first IM, and really felt I had sub 11 fitness. Conversely I was surprised as heck to have gone sub 10 at IMC in my second IM. I didn't get a Kona slot and need to lose a SOLID 15 minutes before I get one.

Fingers crossed.

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"the trick is to keep losing weight until your friends and family ask you if you've been sick. then you know you're within 10 pounds. if they start whispering to each other, wondering if you've got cancer or aids, you're within 5. when they actually do an intervention, you're at race weight." - Slowman

Yeah, some races just don't come together the way you want. I had never had to deal with injuries before this past season and it showed up at the worst time prior to Kona, so it's tough to judge results off of just one IM. My 4 races in order have been:
9:43
9:40
9:20
10:25
Maybe this guy can get into the 10's. Once you get under 10, time compression makes gains so hard to find.

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
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