Not at the macro-level but for individual races you can look here: coachcox.co.uk.

E.g. http://www.coachcox.co.uk/...14-results-analysis/. So for example in the 30-34 age group the slowest KQ time looks to be ~9:40 in 3rd position, and the ~9:50 guy came in 7th place. So that's 4 people within 10 minutes. You could check the ironman website for exact numbers.

In brief though, it's a small %.

Saw the link to my site. Interesting question so I did a quick check against races I have slot counts for. I'll put up some tables of data later on, but for now I'll give a rough answer to this question.

It does vary hugely by age group and race. Slot allocation to an age group can be anything from 1% of total numbers to 4-5% depending on race size and age group sizes. Taking M30-34 as an example then in the race data I have it's quite common for ta further 5-15 athletes to finish within 10 minutes of the final Kona slot. In a major age group in a major race I'd say you're typically looking at Kona slots for the top 1-2% of the age group and a further 1-3% finishing within 10 minutes of those top places. If you're finishing in the top 5% of that age group you're likely within sight of qualification.

Bear in mind this doesn't consider the spread of times for qualifiers which can also be large. Being within 10 minutes of the final qualifier in some races could still place you 45 minutes back from the winner. It also doesn't consider roll downs (information on this is sparse) so some I use the slot count for an age group and take the time for the last place that would automatically qualify.

Russ

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Thanks! Very interesting. I'll look forward to what you find. And if extending it to 15 min (from the final qualifier) helps, that's a good number too, as it's within realistic possibility for those folks.

It's somewhat hard to predict, because it's 100% dependent on who registers for what race. As has been said, there is often a pretty decent gap between the very top AG racer and say the 3rd or 4th in the AG. After that it generally levels out a bit. Looking at IMMT (racing this year, and missed a KQ by 7 seconds two years ago) - last year top in my AG (M35-39) was 9:12, 2nd was 9:26, 3rd was 9:33, then it jumped all the way to 4th in 9:51. However, the 10th place guy was 9:54 - a group of 7 separated by ~3 minutes.

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I'm with you Nate. Clearly a lot of variables. I wouldn't be concerned about the top finisher (except maybe in the 75+ AG where there may only be 1 slot) but rather the number of people who were within 10 or 15 minutes of the last slot awarded in the AG.

Thanks all!

I think statistically you can look at each course and each age group and put a 20 min range that you need to hit to have a chance after looking at all the years of that course and the last slot. I THINK this is what you are trying to calculate, but in the end it could swing wildly from that range. Still it is nice knowing the range. In my case, I am one of those guys in the mix until T2 and then half way through the run and the guys who run for dough close the deal. It's just the way it is. Sometimes you have to accept reality.

Agree. This isn't a personal question. I've been fortunate to be in the mix for the slots a few times over the years. I'm more curious on a broader level. If there are around 1400 slots (not including Pros and Legacy), how many thousands of people are within that 10-15 minutes range of the last slot on an annual basis. Just looking for a ballpark and hoping maybe somebody out there happened to have done the number crunching at some point :-)

My guess is if there are 1500 slots in Kona, there are 1500 that just missed by 10 min. Just using the example that Nate showed from 35-39 at Tremblant while there is often a big delta between the top guys and the last qualifier it gets "really dense" in the range of and after the last qualifier. That is my gut feel. At this point I have raced through 6 age groups and pretty well seen the entire evolution. There were at least 10 IM's where I was between 8 seconds and 15 min out of the last slot. There were another 10-12 where I was no where near, 3 KQ's and 2 rolldown passes and 3 actual races in Kona. Let's just say my hit rate is really bad but my ability to be in the "range" is decent. Even last weekend, I was 9th off the bike and inside 3 min of 5th, but that race was essentially over for me within 60 min of the bike. I was totally frozen with no real chance of running (just not my weather). At T2 I was 3 min from a KQ, at the finish an 50 min away. But if I did a decent normal run that I already did at an IM this year only 15 min out. All this to say, my perfect race is usually 10-15 min out. Then I need a big rolldown and hope some guys pass up. In the end you can only control your perfect race....get your perfect race into the right range.

Yeah, close race 4th to 10th. I happened to be that poor 10th place guy.

I bet they're all part of the same tri club, it sounds like an open-and-shut case of everyone drafting each other on the bike and pacing each other round the run. I can't believe the marshalls didn't spot this!