So everyone that worked with Macca in 2010 to isolate Alexander was riding a Specialized?

;^)

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

You're only giving Lance 10 - 12 minutes??

More like 20 minutes if you ask me... but who's asking.

The only one worth it to ride with Lance is prob Lieto (they are close friends as well); why would Lance join forces with the runners?

Lance has to pull a Stadler on eveybody if he wants to win the race...

I wouldn't be surprise if he put 20 minutes on everybody and if the runners try to stay with him on the bike then they must be willing to pay for it on the run!

Lance is def on their head

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The entire event (IM) is like "death by 1000 cuts" and the best race is minimizing all those cuts and losing less blood than the other guy. - Dev

Lance is going to race his own race, which means he's going to destroy the bike leg. That means the rest of the pro field will explode trying to keep up with him because they like to keep each other in sight. They believe that they key off of each other, but it's an Ironman and it really comes down to individual ability. Your best bet to beat Lance is to pace yourself on the bike so you can run great and maybe catch him just before the finish line. Any other tactic leads to a slower overall time - especially pedaling like mad to keep a 7 time TDF champ in sight. Maybe team up and ride as a pack to go as fast as possible, but don't list keeping Lance in sight as one of the goals - all that will be left of you is a flaming Specialized smear on the Queen K.

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Will it be another Hellriegal/Allen like show down...? Big lead off the bike & then last few miles...whoop! There it is!

Lance and Lieto will go up huge and the rest of the pack will crumble under the overpressure of their wake.

ok...stupid question time. I've run exactly one tri and am trying to figure out how these guys would "team" up? Now I get one or the other pushing the pace on the bike to force everyone else to try and keep up, but I don't see how they could help each other?

Thanks
D

Even at draft-legal distances, riders in a pack have an aero benefit.

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"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."

It's theories like this that is going to make this years race amazing.

I just hope IMLIVE can handle the traffic.

And that they don't use Lisa Bentley as a commentator.

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Didn't Chrissie W get her announcing tryout at Herman Memorial Tex.

I heard Lance is bringing his ol' Bro Matthew Mcconaughey to team up with him for the shirtless run while he is highfiving in the last mile..........but that could just be a rumor.


i'm sure Crowie is too busy training to even know Lance is racing this year. He's got dreams to crush!

Tim

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Tim

Dynamite!

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Nate

that is exactly my thinking as well! 15-20 minutes "could" do the trick

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The entire event (IM) is like "death by 1000 cuts" and the best race is minimizing all those cuts and losing less blood than the other guy. - Dev

Quote:

Lance and Lieto will go up huge and the rest of the pack will crumble under the overpressure of their wake.

I see this as the completely obvious scenario. The 2 big bike guns both riding speed concepts with BIG camera time for Trek. There has to be $$ in doing that for Lieto...or at least job security with Trek. And I can't imagine then riding together won't help each ride faster. I can see it coming down to the last mile with the winner (if Crowie for example) getting camera time only for that last mile....LOL.

And since anything can happen on the run maybe Chris will beat Lance. Maybe Lance will pull Chris to a new bike split PB, put Chris light years ahead of the field and lead Chris to an overall win. Obvoiusly unlikely, but anything could happen! Lance could simply not have it on that one day.

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

I am under the assumption that Lance can out run Lieto any day of the week. If they got off the bike together Lance would eat Chris for lunch.

The marathon may be a different story but I doubt it.

Yes it seems obvious that Lance is better than Chris on the run any day of the week. The problem is he may not be better that day!

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

How is Lance better on the run? He has ran 26.2 after riding hard for 112 when? It's also entertaining that Crowie is still not considered a top 3 or 5 cyclist. Pretty sure he has shown that he is multiple times now, and is scary consistent.

Because Lance is a better runner.

But as I alluded we all know whether open 26.2 or 26.2 in IM that it's a totally different animal and anything can happen.

If Lance can outrun Chris 9-10 times at 13.1 he can probably only outrun him 7-10 at 26.2. Maybe only 5-10 times at IM 26.2. I don't know just hypothetical.

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

Are we forgetting how good Crowie is? Last year, he went 51:56 in the swim, pulled off a second-best 4:24:05 bike split and ran 2:44:03 to set a FASTEST ever 8:03:56. Lance will need at least a 20 min lead out of T2 to hold off Crowie's run and that is impossible. Just my opinion.

In my opinion, Macca & Crowie both need to get Lance out of their mind and just do absolutely whatever they can do to make the race exactly like 2011.
Swim 52-53, ride 4:25-4:30 as easily as possible (with whatever group necessary) to set themselves up to run 2:43-2:44 (yeah I know that's course record pace.) With a performance like last year, it should not matter if anyone is up the road on Crowie, just put the blinders on and run the exact same race if at all possible, and ignore all else.

If anyone can pull off the above times and Lance still wins the race, then god bless, he deserves it. But a betting man should take Macca or Crowie to go 8:05 versus anyone else.

I don't think you will see Lance run faster than 3:05-3:10 at Nice. He will have a 20 minute lead on Fredrick Van Lierde and Zamora. No need to go deep in the tank to make a point. We won't see all of Lance's cards until Kona. That's just how he plays. He never puts his cards on the table at B races.

As for Macca and Crowie working together, I think all these guys will need to so they can limit losses and then when it comes to the run, it will be every many for himself.

Lance probably wanted to see how much faster he can ride than Lieto in Honu. Now he knows (and he's still on B race bike fitness too). He probably works with Lieto for 120K and then rides away in the last 60K. Lance ends up with 15 minutes on the pack, Lieto ends up with 12 minutes on the pack on account of working with Lance (vs doing it solo).

Should be a good Trek vs Specialized smackdown.

Dev

I see this as the completely obvious scenario. The 2 big bike guns both riding speed concepts with BIG camera time for Trek. There has to be $$ in doing that for Lieto...or at least job security with Trek.

And you have to wonder how far 10 meters is when it comes to certain athletes in cahoots with the WTC.

Yeah, this thread is probably not giving Crowie enough credit. If anything, having Macca ride with him will make it EASIER for Crowie during the run. I'm a fan of Macca, Crowie and Lance. I'd actually like to see Macca and Lance elevate the game and have Crowie win again. My concern is that Crowie went really deep in the tank last year at Kona and again this spring at Melbourne. After Melbourne he said his quads never felt so trashed.

We're yet to see a men's Kona champion follow up a win like that, with a ground breaking performance the next year and then go back in the fall and repeat. Last time this happened LVL did Kona and Roth and did not even start in Kona in 98. If I recall correctly Peter Reid had an amazing win in Kona, did Austria the next summer and struggled a bit in Kona in the fall. The years Crowie repeated (or just won), he never had a really hard Ironman in between the two years at Kona. I personally hope he can bounce back. He's going to need every second per mile to beat either Lance or Macca or Ralaert (either of them)....let's not forget Pete Jacobs.

By the way, does anyone know which Ironman Pete Jacobs is doing as his "obligatory Ironman". He obviously has enough points, but still has to race an Ironman.

Dev

Hi, my name is Craig. I won the 70.3 and IM world championships in the same year at 38. I hear Lance rode 2:01 in a 70.3. Cool.

I like Lance, but he spent his life kicking ass at cycling, which is a huge part of IM races, with a huge support crew and questionable culture. He should do well. Running isn't very hard, relatively, when you have an engine like his. Not taking away from what he is doing, but it's not much of a change for him. Jordan playing baseball, albeit at a lower level, was impressive. Bo and Deion were impressive. Samardzija is impressive. If Lance gets a podium spot in Kona that would be impressive, and a win would just be nasty impressive. That's just how I view it, and am biased towards the strictly tri guys.

after reading this thread, LA emails Hellrigel and Zacks, and Stadler and goes something like this.

Hey Guy's, how about a over 40 ass whooping in kona this year, go to Madrid Spain, in July, my Doc will hook you up with some Vitamins, you guy's can kill it on the bike, i will just do some legal drafting, (no worries the head referee is my coach), i will have a brown paper bag with small bills, at the Michelob Ultra booth, for each of you. after the underwear run, that Faris will smoke in his speedo.


see you in Nice
LA