Go to best bikesplit and see what your watts would need to be to ride under 5, given your current cda. Then answer your own question.

You can play with the sliders and see what aero gains vs. increased power would mean for your bike split over the full 112.

4:54 is just over a 20mph average. To go sub five, you would have to average about 22.25 mph. 2 mph doesn’t seem like much but that is a pretty big ask. Ballpark would be at least a 10-15 percent improvement in power to do this.

Maybe.

Is it possible to make the gains in a year to squeeze in that last 12 miles into the same time?


Depends on the wind...

I'm not sure I will be able to cross the street next year. Man plans, God laughs. I say give it a try.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

To give you some reference:
I went 4:30 in the Maryland 2016 century brick and just rode IMFL at 5 hours flat
I'm about 10-15 watts stronger on long rides (FTP is meaningless really, its all about muscular endurance)

So while not impossible I think you have a lot more work to get there

My advice: get aero. Get really really aero and run fast tires and a fast chain.

get optimized... get a bike fit

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

 

My advice: get aero. Get really really aero and run fast tires and a fast chain.


OSPW

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Ask me how much I love my Kiwami LD Aero Trisuit

Ride for 10 hours a week and you will get there.

You're looking to increase your speed nearly 10%. Assuming the same drag factors (position, bike, wheels, tires, helmet, kit), you would need an increase in power output of 25% or more to gain that much speed. You say your FTP is up 10 watts in a year. WIthout knowing all the specifics, I'm still pretty confident in guessing that's well under a 12.5% gain, which means you are not currently on track. You either need to change your training program to accelerate your fitness gains or do things to improve your drag factors.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

I know the wind can affect things dramatically, but as a finisher of both IMFL & IMMD, I feel Florida is the faster course.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I think if the wind was the same, Maryland would be faster since FL has some small rollers while Maryland is completely flat.
But in the two years I was in Maryland the wind was well over 10 mph, which definitely makes FL faster.

In 2014, I did a 5:05 bike. So, YES, a sub 5:00 is totally possible! Go there and kill it!

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Team Zoot-Texas, and Pickle Juice

What is a fast chain?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

4:54 over 100 miles comes out to be 5:29 over 112 miles. So your question is if you can be 35 minutes faster.

I think you will need quite a bit more than just a 10W FTP increase which really is only about a 7W increase at IM intensity. Saving 35 minutes will probably mean saving energy or increasing power at least 3x that... rough guess though.

For reference I did a 4:46 for 112 miles in 2014 averaging around 245 watts. (I’m a big guy and not very aero).

^^^This. And if there is any water on the course from tidal flooding.