I built a route in Strava. It's probably not perfect, as it's a bit hard to estimate turnaround on Callaghan but pretty close. It calculates an elevation gain of 9750.

https://www.strava.com/routes/11886855

How do people think this new bike course will affect participation numbers?

My guess is 600 max

That bike course is going to punish people. Slower/weaker cyclists are going to get chewed up and there will be a high percentage of DNF or DQ for time cutoffs.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

You should race, looks like you’re flying all over the planet anyway😀

Maurice

Haha. I've done IM Whistler twice already but I'd go back again in a heartbeat, even with the 3000' of extra climbing on what was already a tough f'n course. I love that place. I was registered for the 70.3 last year but work commitments kept me away.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I mapped it as well and came out with 9660ft in gain over 111.7 miles. I dropped it into BBS (have raced Whistler 2x so I have good idea of road conditions) and was surprised at the expected time. It was about 12-15min faster than my swag guest from seeing the course as mapped and knowing it from riding the roads in prior years. I was right at 5 hours on the old course, and BBS predicts only a 3min slower time on the same power and set up. I added more drag (assuming less time in the aero position on the technical bits), and it only added 2min...

Not sure what to think. One clue from my memory is the road (99) from Alta to Callaghan is pretty fast in both ways (rolling but good tarmac) and since the race rides this road several times and its the longest stretch, much of the speed is found there.

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

The RD confirmed that the turnaround on Alta Lake Rd is at the Stonebridge intersection. That is why my course was only 107 miles.

That is where I set the turn around as well. The only way I could have gotten it too long is the turn around on Callaghan, as that is not really at any specific point (intersection, etc). I sure HOPE they get this course close to 112 miles as it getting to be a joke as the ironman bike distances are getting shorter every year it seems.

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

If the turnaround is at Stonbridge, that would take out the somewhat technical descent and turnaround. I dont recall the part from Alpine to Stonbridge being technical. I would imagine i would be aero for most or all of it.
The hard part of this course is coming back to whistler from calighan. Its mostly uphill and not exactly easy.

My guess would be similar numbers this year as last but then fall off as legend of the tough bike grows.

Much to my complete surprise as of Feb 1 the partipant list is at about 1500! Last year there were 1150 finishers.

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@rhyspencer

Remember there is no IM CDA this year to cannibalize this race this year. I suspect this race could hold since there is not another IM within a 1,000 miles, there are about 15,000,000 people within driving distance, hotel rooms are cheap for an IM venue and it's a great family race destination. I plan on being back in 2019 if the race is still there.

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Oui, mais pas de femme toute de suite (yes, but I am not ready for a woman straight away) -Stephen Roche's reply when asked whether he was okay after collapsing at the finish in the La Plagne stage of the 1987 Tour

What's the typical DNS rate, 10-20%?

And most of these folks signed up before the change. I've seen more than a few unhappy transfer requests on the FB page, and it seems WTC is honoring them

Yep, that's a good point. Especially about the hotel rooms; plenty of them and relatively inexpensive. I remember the nightmares of trying to find a place to stay in Lake Placid, it was ridiculous. I can't be in Whistler this year (unfortunately) but I will likely be back for either the half or the full in 2019. I think the full has a three year contract? Or maybe it's the *race* that has a three year contract, so they could add/subtract the full as they see fit.

Now that IMCdA is gone, it seems to me that WTC has set up a pretty decent 'season' for athletes in the PNW and southwestern Canada. I'm not going to actually do this, but Victoria 70.3 followed by CdA 70.3 followed by Whistler full is a pretty well-times series of long course races. It's just too bad that Vic is opposite the truly excellent race in Oliver, and CdA half is the same weekend as my local race.

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Any run that doesn't include pooping in someone's front yard is a win.

Anyone can transfer until June. It's just a matter of whether they have to pay the $50 transfer fee. I don't think the vocal facebook minority will prove to be indicative of people fleeing from the race in droves.

I am signed up for the full and have every intention of going back for my second year in a row. I love the venue and, as mentioned, it's a reasonably cheap place for a vacation. I'm happy to have the facebook complainers go elsewhere, especially if they are bad cyclists.

The new registration incentives may be a cause of this - free deferral to the following year, payment plans, etc. Also weather was quite nice last year, which helps early sign-up numbers, especially with repeat participants.

Perhaps some will defer to next year and a few will transfer, but with CDA gone, my guess is total finishers will slightly exceed the 1150 number from last year.

I've got air and hotel, just deciding on full or half. And frankly that's got almost nothing to do with the bike course, and everything to do with whether I want to spend 6 hours on my bike on various Saturdays in May and June....

Come on Chris, do it. I'll spend a few Saturdays riding your wheels to train for this sucker. 5-10x up SBs and Domes should do it.

Haha, I actually strava'd a route yesterday.....
two PV loops
via del monte on the third loop over to Hawthorne, up hawthorne
third PV loop

still <9K

And the only time you'll ride my wheel is when you lap me on a loop

I guess the good.. and bad... news is all the bike training can be done within a 20 mile radius from home. I'll want to shoot myself but still.

The 2018 course is now on BestBikeSplit

20-25 mins slower at my watts.

Has anyone seen a map that indicates aid stations? And, does anyone know where the exact turn around spots are?

I know the north one is at the intersection of alta lake road and stonebridge