Is it really that long now??? No Ultraman in my future so definitely no Ultraman training. Sounds like I may have to break it up into a couple of 4 hour rides ;)

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Does he need to make the front group? I would say that he would be fine swimming with the 2nd group/ the Kienle group. He can ride up to the front group with them, then at least he is in the game.
Making the front group seems like it will be a stretch for him.

It's a shame he won't be doing Kona next year though. Given that he managed a WTC best time 6 weeks after Kona this year, it doesn't see like it destroys him too much, so I don't know what he gains by missing out on the biggest long distance tri in the world...

I fully disagree with what seems to be consensus here on ST.
Lionel doesn't need to make the front group, and I don't even think he needs to swim with Kienle in order to have a decent result (or even win) in Kona. I think both Lionel and the ST community are now massively overrating the swim due to what happened at Mooloolaba, which in its extreme was unusual (even for a championship race) and would not have happened had there been any cross winds as you can usually expect at Kona.
Look at what Boris Stein did this year in Kona: he came out of the water almost 2 minutes behind Kienle (2:30 before LS) and he was leading the race before Hawi (at that point I considered him as one of the top contenders for the win, as he's quite a strong runner usually). He certainly overbiked in order to achieve that, for which he paid towards the end of the bike and the beginning of the run, but he still finished with a very respectable 7th place. Given Lionel's bike-run-combo is even stronger than Boris', Lionel could have won Kona without swimming any faster than Boris did.
Interesting also what Boris wrote in his post-race report (my translation from German):
"Generally the swim in Hawaii suits me. There are more swimmers of my level. I don't need to do the whole work by myself and can safe valuabel energy."
It should be Lionel's goal for the swim in 2017, to be able to swim with the slowest group in Kona.
I think Lionel should (and will) race in Kona 2017. He's basically qualified already (one or max two more half-decent 70.3 results will suffice), and what else would he be doing after the 70.3 world championship in September 2017 wnyway. IMAZ showed that he's not really weaker at the full distance than at half. The drafting problem will always be greater at half distance than at full, so Lionel's conclusion after the Mooloolaba disaster to stick to 70.3. for a while is flawed imho.

If I can wish for something, then it will be that Lionel will race in Roth next year to see if he can break 7:40 and then in Kona. In addition a few 70.3. races here and there...

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Achim Traut

Maybe Lionel is one of the first to realize he can

a) Go to Kona, come maybe 7th or so, make maybe 10k-15k or so, incur 6-7k of expenses destroying himself

b) Go to Island House (he got an automatic invite) all expenses paid, make more than 10k, do IMAZ, make 25k+bonuses

let's see....a 3-4k after expenses vs 40-50k after expenses.....hmmmmm......I think he should do Kona

Could it be Lionel is one of the best business minds in the sport ? Maybe Erin is :-)

That sounds like he wants to clean up at second tier races, instead of going for the big races.

If that is what he wants to do, that is fair enough, but he won't become a great by winning IMAZ and getting 10th place against out of form short course athletes in the Island House Tri year in year out.

  

Maybe he wants to develop himself on the swim, try to win 70.3 world championships and make a decent living along the way

At 28 he does have a certain amount of time.

I'll be curious to see the list of money earners this year. Lionel, will be up there.

If you read his blog he talks quite a bit about going faster than Marino's IM series record at Arizona. Not just winning it, but posting the IM series fastest time. He also says his performance in Kona "stung". To me, this sounds like a really competitive guy who sets really high standards for himself.

Let's assume he bangs out a few early season 70.3 and get's enough points to scrape into a KQ by June. I am certain he gets an invite, likely with all expenses paid to race in Roth.....why would Felix "not" want him there. Damn right he's going to get an invite. And I hope Lionel changes his mind and gets it. Then let's say he goes faster in Roth than in Arizona, he's going to be itching to test himself in Kona. He won't be able to help himself and as you said there is nothing else going in during the first 2 weeks of Oct.....so what else is he going to do? I hope we see him in Kona....or as a minimum in Roth. He might end up getting an invite to Austria too as the guys in Klagenfurt also want to be 'the fastest course'.

Lionel doesn't need to make the front group, and I don't even think he needs to swim with Kienle in order to have a decent result (or even win) in Kona. I think both Lionel and the ST community are now massively overrating the swim due to what happened at Mooloolaba, which in its extreme was unusual (even for a championship race) and would not have happened had there been any cross winds as you can usually expect at Kona.

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Except we are talking about an athlete that hasn't finished higher than 14th at Kona?

I've yet to see one post on him racing Kona with anything other than "just use it as a training day", "don't worry how good/bad the swim is" "no pressure". lol no pressure? You don't think this guy with his athletic background will not apply some internal pressure on himself. You are kidding yourself.

That's not how world class athletes go into a world championship race. He's sorta used his "recon Kona race experience", and it's pretty much shown 1 decent result (14th), and one sorta meltdown (29th). He pretty much is at the point that the result will showcase if he's good enough or not. There is no "let's just go have fun" at Kona anymore. So I don't think he wants to race it just because it's there.

And I agree he won't ever be able to swim to front group, by I don't think he'll need to if he keeps getting better at all 3 and swims into a chase group. But he isn't close to that yet is he??
He's not "one good swim away", he was 2.5 mins from the next swimmer and small group.

If you look at the results That's not one big swim block and you are good. That's months and months of solid coached swim training and then evaluate where you are.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

He can close the 2.5 minutes that he's away from the group by improving his swimming ability by 1-1.5 minutes and the remaining 1-1.5 minutes comes from the benefit of being in the group.
And your "months and months of solid coached swim training and then evaluate" would be consistent with racing in Kona next year. Let's see where his swim is in 10 months time.

I'm confused on your math because you said he could have won Kona by swimming "no faster" than the guy that finished 7th and 2.5 mins faster then LS in the water.

If he came out of water 2.5 mins back of group:
-60s improvement in water, means 90s back on the bike.
-90s improvement in water, means 60s back on the bike.

In either of those cases, he still has to "catch" that group. Meaning, he still swims alone and with no draft.


I just think you made some rather big assumptions that are rather shall I say disrespectful to the guys who actually are putting it together in Kona. You said LS could have won Kona by swimming "only" 2.5 mins faster alongside Boris Stein? Are you serious? ETA: Then you state he doesn't even need to get in that swim group, he can make it up on the bike. That's the whole issue for LS at Kona. He's yet to crack the top 10, and we have people saying he'd have won it if he only gets a little faster in the swim?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

i think what he was saying is Boris would have had a good chance to finsh higher than 7th had sanders come out with him in the water ;-)
Boris' progress is text book style and given that he has only been a full time pro for 2 years we will see more from him .

Lionel 'lost' in Mooloolaba (mainly) because his swim was so slow that he had to bike by himself, and given the conditions there (in particular lack of any cross winds) this cost him so much that not even his outstanding bike-run performance brought him onto the podium.

In Kona, in contrast, he lost (mainly) because his performance on the bike was mediocre and his run was a jog. If he had biked and run in Kona at the same level as at IMAZ, he probably would have finished on the podium. Whether the reason for his below par performance in Kona was a lack of longer training sessions, a negative mindset or something else I don't know. If he wants to win Kona, he needs to have the strongest bike-run combo in the field (on that day) in order to make up for his deficit in the swim (which he will never completely eradicate).

Joanna Zeiger also came from a pure swimming background and was a very good competitive swimmer. Owned all freestyle records for all distances at Brown if I remember correctly, and of course in Triathlon, 4th place at the Olympics and 70.3 World Champion (and also qualified for Olympic trials in the marathon multiple times to boot).