i'm not an expert, but my power output for a 13-minute TT would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of 115% of FTP.

edit: that may be a slightly conservative estimate of FTP...110% may be closer. i'd guess 110-115% as a reasonable range.

Sounds about right. Go out around 110% and if feeling good (well not like crap) then bump it up a bit for the last 3-5 minutes. It's always a lot better to finish strong than fade.

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Thanks to both of you! I went out tonight and did some intervals shooting for 110% to 115% and they felt a bit reserved from how I've started the TT in the past (but I seem to start too hard virtually every time). I think this will be a good starting point.

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I have deceptive speed.........I'm slower than I look!

Upload your power data to Xert online and it will build a rough profile for you, assuming you have enough data, you should get a reasonably accurate idea of your 10 minute power from there.

it all depends on the course, temperature, wind direction use http://www.bestbikesplit.com it will give you good estimate how to pace, if you master it, you will be within 10-20sec on 40k course.

Yes, most of us have a very strong tendency to go too hard. Riding the first 5 minutes at near 5 minute pace will lead to disaster. You can go way over FTP for the first few seconds to get up to speed, but throttle back to goal pace immediately after that.

I'm not a certified coach, but based on some discussion around the office I think I could offer some advice.

110-115% sounds pretty realistic since this is only a 10k TT. That doesn't mean you should shoot right out the gate at 110-115% right away though. Maybe feel out 105-107% and vibe how your legs withstand the effort, given the conditions of the course. If you're feeling that lactate build-up off 105-107% FTP, then you may want to back off a bit. Either way, given the distance and under presumed conditions, I think 110-115% sounds fair by first starting out a little shy of that. :)

Hope this helps!

Cheers — Ride Hard,

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That depends on what you mean by "finish strong." If you mean you're barely able to hold something close to your average pace, then yes.

But my best performances have been where I've been on the verge of cracking in the last few minutes....not cracked, but you can see HR peg and power start to fluctuate a little bit as it becomes purely a fight against pain tolerance.