450, you don't know what you have until you really push yourself ;)

La Crosse can't be that hilly, and no, I am not going

edit: don't forget to get off you bike and run some at top for your tri training

edit 2.0: 380 would likely be good if you wanted steady state the whole way and really it will be close since the flatter portion at top is not that long after the climb. you could try 390 until it flattens out, push a tad more at that point while getting as aero as possible and then limp across the line(aerolly invisible)

I am also assuming this is Lacrosse. Doing the same TT. Wondering if I should use my Flo 60's with 25 GP4000SII or my Easton EA90 SLX with 23 GP4000SII.

  
if it was me with 410 5 min power i'd shoot for 390 till the last mile then unload, hopefully at 420ish. you wanna have a match to get to a high speed for the flat section.

On the wheels probably whatever is more aero unless the weight difference is huge. Huge like pounds.

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

crr is more important as well when going slow

edit: say your aero watts are 300 at 30mph, at 15 mph they will be closer to 37. your crr watts may be higher and will vary a LOT less than that so any you can save to fight gravity, the better off you will be. i'd go will really good crr tires. aero wont dominate except possibly at very beginning and very end. latex and 23SS or some cottons, if every last second counts for you

Maintaining 380+ is probably dependent on how hard you start. If you hit 650-800 for the first 20 seconds things may not work out so well for you. Smooth start without going too deep will be key to getting close the your maximum effort.

If I were you I'd go full bananas on the hill, 420ish average goal. And allow yourself a big fade on the flats. The idea is that going uphill the higher power will gain more time than being conservative and finishing fast on the flat. I would also have a power ceiling on the start. ~380 first 15sec, 400 next 15sec and from there get into your business at 420. I think you know that if you go out with a soft sprint you'll have a miserable time.

The other option is to use best bike split to determine what power is required for 8:15 and do that.

^^Exactly this. Go balls out on the hill, target 420, then just hold on and empty everything you've got left on the flat.

I'm pretty sure I'm racing against you. So I would encourage you to try to ride 550W for the first min and see what you have left.

But, I'll add that this thread is why the golden cheetah folks should add a W' balance based performance calculator. Not that I have the skills to build such a tool. But it would be useful for planning short TT efforts. And fun to mess with in general.

Andy

Aiming for a power PR during a race of that duration can be a recipe for disaster. Personally I'd monitor the first minute around 370 to open up and then let loose, and not even worry about what the PM says.

1:00 380W
2:00 380W
3:00 400W
4:00 400W
5:00 400W
6:00 390W (same effort as the last two minutes, just starting to crack ever so slightly. Crack gracefully.)
7:00 390W
8:00+ Thermonucular (which should be around 391W if you've played your cards correctly).

Based on my P-D curve, I would target 375 if I were in your shoes but I skew towards the anaerobic side of things. The nice part of starting out conservative is you can up the effort later 4 minutes in. Doesn't work so well the other way around.

Listen to these two guys. They have quite a few champion's skinsuits between them.

Also to add, with such a high effort to start (regardless of the conservative 370 or the optimistic 420), makes sure to get in a very good warmup. I'd personally do 35-40 min, with quite a few efforts above FTP. You want to arrive at the line still "hot" from the warm up.

I used to go full tilt from the gun and hang on. More recently I've come around to the idea of a measured start, then building into effort as legs open up.

Just did a 4x4 min vo2 Max workout for first time in many years. I paced the first :30-:45 at the low end and then ramped up for rest. All 4 sets had average power +17-19 watts (if anything I'm consistent) over starting point.

Yes, do what Carl says.
You can't take it back once you have gone too hard.
So many riders make the mistake of killing their tt in the 1st 30 seconds to one minute.
They jump out of the gate at a near sprint- ride 600 watts until they can't hold it any more- then grovel for the rest of the event.

What are the grades/speeds of the climb vs. flat? Is aero at all a concern?

The trouble with this race is the first 400+ yards is 10-12% grade. So the slowest portion of the course is right away. So obviously that would be the time to cheat up the wattage a bit. Then it's a consistent 5-7% to 2 miles where it's flat and rolling.

I think aero matters a great deal on this course especially up top where speeds can exceed 35mph. There are other guys like me running full aero everything except we ride road frames.

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

That wouldn't change my pacing strategy. You'll need consistent power for that type of profile, and going too deep in first 400y could make the last 2 miles pretty miserable.

Aiming for a power PR during a race of that duration can be a recipe for disaster. Personally I'd monitor the first minute around 370 to open up and then let loose, and not even worry about what the PM says.

^^^Yep.

Can you link the course profile?

http://lacrosseomnium.com/hill-tt

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

If you have little experience with this sort of thing it's best to be a conservative. If you've done several efforts like this in the past and have a good handle on how to warm up and how your body responds then you can modify accordingly. Personally I've never once done an effort like this where I said "I wish I'd gone harder at the start". But the opposite has happened many times.

If that profile is accurate, there is a steeper section that starts ~.15 miles in and lasts for around .25 miles. You can ride a little under goal pace until you get there, then see how you feel. Even if you feel good, don't go over 400W. Optimizing is really a fine line in such a short race. Obviously you don't need to save a lot for the flatish section, but you also don't want to blow before you get there.