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Any predicitions on the Kona bike count?
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I wager we will see the "boutique" triathlon specialty brands hold steady with some growth from Felt, a little contraction for Quintana Roo (but possibly not since their current line-up is nice and it may have taken a year for that to reach the consumer who does Kona) and Cervelo firmly holding the top spot.

The biggest movement may be from the mainstream brands as they slip downward. As the sport develops its own identity with its own brands those brands become stronger, especially among the better athletes, and the more common, mainstream brands slip against those.

We may also see some upward movement from brands like Orbea. I think Kuota will move up significantly too. It's a tough call with Cannondale and Kestrel. Perhaps there may be an emergence of more smaller brands.

It will be interesting to read.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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I wager we'll also see a slight shift toward steeper geometry....

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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I'll throw in my guesses on patterns from last year:

Down significantly: Trek (the TTX will likely take another year to catch on since it came out so late, and Trek is not as "sexy" anymore)

Slight increase: Orbea, Kuota, Guru (new(er) models, increased advertising, great exposure and recognition)

Significant increase: Cannondale (the Farris factor, plus the new slice is sick)

Continued steady growth: Felt (next year, the DA makes a big splash)

Dominant: Cervelo (seems to be the dominant bike of choice)

If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went. - Will Rogers

Emery's Third Coast Triathlon | Tri Wisconsin Triathlon Team | Push Endurance | GLWR
Last edited by: JSA: Oct 21, 06 7:54
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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better questions: how do you think the kona bike count varies from, say, a bike count derived from a composite of the premier and most competitive non-IM triathlons in north america? or, a bike count derived from a composite of the premier and most competitive non-IM triathlons in the EU european nations?

the reason i ask, is going by the numbers (volume of bikes sold), the kona bike count is not as indicative of trends or of bike brand's success in the bike and tri markets as we might imagine. for example, the majority of bike purchasing triathletes are not as wealthy as the average HI IM athlete, and most triathletes primarily do shorter, non-IM races.

so why even do the kona bike count if the numbers don't tell us that much?

well, i can think of 2 reasons: the kona bike count gives some indication of market trends; and, the winner, the kona bike count is easy to do (compared to either of the bike counts suggested above). researchers focus on what is easy to do, not necessarily what gives the best data. but that is life.





Where would you want to swim ?
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [Greg x] [ In reply to ]
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"the kona bike count is not as indicative of trends or of bike brand's success in the bike and tri markets as we might imagine"

True. Slowman has written about that too. I think the Kona count is a "barometer" so to speak. If you buy into the thinking that Kona is an amalgam of the best of the best, inclduing the local hotshots from all over the world- these are the people who may exert an influence on more regular consumer's buying decisions. We're looking at the potential trend-setters in Kona.

It's like trends in fashion for the adolescent crowd- it tends to start on the coasts and move inland. Fashion trends are influenced by New York urban and L.A. looks and themes. The same could be said of triathlon bike brand popularity with Kona. Exhibit "A" is that the companies who do well in the Kona Count fly that high on their flag pole. The companies who lose ground make a decision to re-desing, re-market or re-treat back to other product categories.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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I think you will see QR, felt and cervelo grow at the expense of trek, kestrel and lightspeed. I think softide drops almost off the map, some euro brands increase such as principia, orbea increase marginally. cannondale holds steady. kuota increases by ~ 8-10%. All this is based upon my observation from some halfs and the riders I see around here.

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [desert dude] [ In reply to ]
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I agree.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [desert dude] [ In reply to ]
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Actually, I think Trek will hold it's own, just based on numbers I saw yesterday for a few hours.

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [ironclm] [ In reply to ]
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I figured they might slip a trifle. Then again, me not being there it is not much more than a guess on my part. Thanks for the insight! Enjoy the race- have a great day. Very exciting!

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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I think your going to see Scott enter into the fray as well. Cam, Ain, and Marino all riding the Plasma this year.

~~~

- Matt

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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [mjshapiro] [ In reply to ]
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I agree.

good point.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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I also bet that Look, griffen, calfee and specialize take a drop. I'll even predict that softride drops to single digits.

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [desert dude] [ In reply to ]
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Softride will really be off the radar I bet. That's a shame too. They are good bikes.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Any predicitions on the Kona bike count? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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good bikes yes. bad marketing department - the best of the worst.

I've owned three and would ride a classic beam again next year if I was not sponsored by QR. speaking of which it's time to go get reacquainted with the Lucero.

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

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