I'm voting out, but expecting the vote to go 52/48 for remain.

It does seem too close to call, with two main factors working in opposite directions. For the remain side, all the catastrophic economic warnings may well weigh on people's minds as they finally vote. For the Leave side, their supporters tend to be in groups that have a high turnout to vote. Much will depend on how many Remainers turn out to vote. I'm hoping for rain tommorow ;-)

Too close to call, I'm normally pretty decisive but even I'm still sitting on the fence a bit. Heart says leave, but head looks at the high likelihood of short- to medium-term economic chaos ensuing and wonders whether it would be nuts. A lot of people I speak to are the same. It's not an issue which divides people down traditional left/right allegiances so not particularly easy for people to decide which way to go.

Bookies are solidly behind remain which may be telling. I'd imagine the pollsters could well be pretty inaccurate since it's a one-off vote so they don't have any existing data to build their models on, there'll be a lot of assumptions involved. There do seem to be a lot of factors which could see a Leave surge that defies the polls - Leave voters in general seem to be more passionate and older than Remain, both of which are likely to lead to higher turnout. The Leave campaign has also been fairly toxic and I imagine a lot of people might not want to tell a pollster that's how they were voting as a result - we saw this last year with the general election, there were a lot of shy conservatives.

One thing's for sure, the campaigning on both sides has been appalling. Lies, threats, insults, racism, bigotry, Godwin's Law, the whole works. People I know who started out as pretty strongly in favour of leave are still voting that way but have been fairly disgusted at some of the campaigning. And it's almost impossible to get enthusiastic about voting Remain either, it's a vote for the status quo and the establishment, and nobody at the moment is much enamoured of either.

I'm probably still going to vote Leave, on the basis that the Eurozone is doomed to either disintegrate or move towards proper political and economical union at some point in the next few years, and UK is better off on the sidelines whichever of those 2 options comes about.

Under UK law, can this guy still vote?

Yes,

As he is innocent until proven guilty. Remand prisoners are entitled to vote.

Not in the UK, but did liver there for two years in my 20's. Too close to call according to the polls, but the only poll that counts will be the one taken on referendum day. Personally, I believe the UK should leave. It would be in their better interest in the long term.

I'm in simply because whatever the failings of the EU - and there are far to many to list here, but in the end, we will still will be subject to EU regulations and compliance if we want to do business with them - and 44% of our business is there. No reasonable alternative plan has been proffered by Boris.

The whole thing has been a f**king disgrace, and the total contempt that I have developed, particularly for both Boris and Gove (Farage was always a bit of a del boy; bloke to have a pint and fag with but could not get elected in 7 attempts) but these two odious C**ts have done this for nothing more than sport.

I do not believe for one seconds Boris believes half the shit he says but what he's done is obfuscate, lie, waffle - all to what end

He's said if we go in to recession he'll apologise.

Interestingly - I really never thought I'd say this, the outstanding recent performance has been Ruth Davidson, a compelling speaker.

My issue with the debate last night (and I spent the whole night wanting to punch all the leavers in the face repeatedly - basically for being condescending) is that they offer no plan, they just state we're strong - that we'll survive, that we're big enough to be viewed as of equal value for negotiating purposes as a trading block of 500m

They can not name a single security or military person who believes its in our interest, all we have on the business side is a bloke that builds diggers and one who vacums shit up, and both of them have past form with the EU - one in the form of paying an enormous penalty, the other in being unable to change standards

we have 1500 business leaders and former execs of grocers telling the public - you do this, shits going to go wrong - we guarantee nothing

We have major european head quarters in london and the UK - we think they're staying if we leave the EU

the germans and juncker have said we do not get a deal if we leave - neither known for their sense of humour - the reason? if they offer us a deal, we have the dutch, the greeks, the italians after last weekend - they just can not show weakness or it all goes tits up

and to top it all off, some fucking loon goes and kills a young mother of two who really was a hugely admirable person working in the public interest - irrespective of politics

what a fucking shit show - I am so angry about this, it will take quite some time for this to go away and if we vote out on Friday, it will take a decade to unpick the issues and in the interim Scotland has a second referendum, almost certainly irrespective of what Juncker has said in the past gets accession status, we have a border between the north and south in ireland setting social politics back 20 years

The whole thing is awful - on every level, and they have sunk on all sides to the lowest common denominator - a curse on all their houses

very well put thanks for your view

Here's the best bit - we have Farage who has lived off the public teet for decades whilst decrying the EU who's married to a German

We have Boris who has nothing at all to offer and has done himself an enormous disservice with his performance over the past two months - not because those who love him have been turned off, but because this issue has not been a left / right issue, he has more than likely alienated himself from the very same people that elected him mayor of London

Gove is a fu*king clown - was a clown at education and just this morning compared all the experts to Nazi's trying to discredit Einstein. I mean, for fucks sake, we don't go and read tea leaves if we're sick, we see a Dr, get a second opinion, but these guy's are saying every single one of these experts are wrong, that the members of the EU are wrong, that we're stonger, that they'll get us a deal

I suspect in the cold light of day, people that walk in to the booth on thursday that are a tier 3 or 4 supplier for BMW in Oxford vote to stay, Nissan, Ford, workers for the 1500 firms signing the letter today

the small mindedness that people like Farage have brought to this, the racist, xenophobic - argghhhhhhhh!!!!!!

Cold light of day. The EU is a monster, a self fulfilling prophecy where bureaucrats impact the lives of 500m in the 28 members and in truth it should have been limited to free movement of goods (people could have been handled based on need / points) but it has become a monster

We vote out on Thursday - we're still f**ked. Not from a european working time directive perspective, thats fine bang all the health, safety, regulatory and legislative shit on the head BUT the reason that we are truly stuffed, is that 44% of exports to the EU will still be required to comply with EU legislation, we will still be dependent on the imports from the EU, but in the long run there will inevitably be an examination of tariffs. To avoid this, we'd need to be part of the single market - so thats the worst of all deals, we have to exchange free movement of goods and people but have no say in the rules governing the system

We vote out Thursday, Friday morning UKPLC takes an enormous haircut - but I'm dual national and I'm paid in dollars, so I'm still an EU citizen and I get a payrise, but I probably see 10-20% immediately wiped off my personal net worth - I'll survive, do not need to take sterling out of the UK so I'll be ok, but the idea that you would make this decision with no fucking plan beyond the phrase "we're stong, dont be so negative" is beyond insulting

a curse on all their houses (not people voting out - Boris and his ilk)

UK is 8 hours ahead of me, so I won't have to wait too long for the outcome and hopefully congratulate the brave who decided to leave. Good luck guys.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

Its worth pointing out that a vote to leave does not mean we leave.

A vote to leave needs to be carried through both houses of parliament

3/4's of MP's are currently slated to vote in. The referendum is not being conducted based upon their constituencies but is simply a national aggregate by council

so an MP may have been elected as a pro euro MP but is now being asked to carry a bill against that election promise

I'm betting we're in a new election within 3-6 month if we vote out. Cameron can say he'll follow the will of the people but he needs to carry the motion through the commons, the lords and that's assuming he avoids a vote of no confidence

this is going to create chaos

The parallels to Brexit and the emergence of populism in the US cannot be overstated. It is no coincidence that our brothers in the UK are rebelling against technocratic elites far away from home like Americans are doing the same against Washington.

This article sums it up and why Americans have should have a keen interest in this. It may well be a bellwether for November.

The thing about the rule of unaccountable rulers is that people will defer to them so long as they feel things are moving in the right direction, economically and otherwise. But when their incompetence and self-dealing seems to come at the expense of the public, the deference ends. This is where the populism of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump overlap. Both ran on very similar claims that the elite are in it for themselves. Both insisted that their respective parties were "rigged." Neither wants to get rid of interventionist government (alas). Rather, they want government to be even stronger and more activist for their chosen constituencies. Trump's success in the primaries was a direct result of the widespread sentiment -- right or wrong -- that the "establishment" had different priorities on trade, immigration, etc., than the rank and file.

No matter how Brexit turns out, and no matter who wins the presidential campaign, this populist discontent isn't going away any time soon. In fact, it's shaping up to be the new normal.

http://townhall.com/...ror-our-own-n2181676

I don't normally like Goldberg, but I do agree with him here.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

I'd not disagree that there is rising discontent within the EU against un-elected bureaucrats, legislators, jurists, regulators and every other type of administrator appearing to influence individuals lives are a distance

I'd also not disagree that it needs to change

Now that can happen one of two ways - we leave to make a point and pay a penalty of which the scale, duration and total cost are unknown, unpredictable but no one disagree's there will be a penalty - irrespective of duration

The alternative is to stay in and work from the inside. Now we have Wolfgan Schauble - a man not known for his sense of humour since nearly being assassinated - who has been at the heart of the integration project and he has said that there can be no talk following the Brexit of the "ever closer political and monetary union" and that they need to wake up to the message that is being sent

Now, who knows, perhaps we leave and precipitate the end of the EU, but there are 28 other members states and I do not see that happening. I also do not see them making it attractive for others to repeat the UK experience so we could well be sent to solitary for a while and the cost of that will be jobs, businesses based in london moving to be headquarters in the EU, uncertainty in the markets, a weakening of the pound, increased family expenditure and all for what? we should all agree to take a haircut to send a message? we should all spend an unknown period of time living in uncertainty at an unknown cost when on a daily basis the impact of the EU on most people's daily lives is four fifths of F**k All?

If we knew what we were going to get out of it? what the financial implications would be? what the economical implications would be? what the social implications would be? it would be fine, but leaving with out a plan simply on the basis of a slogan to "take back control" is a f**king nonsense

that said - they are all lying sacks of sh*ts and C**ts (and as offensive as some people find that word - in this instance its appropriate)

You mean in London's best interest to leave?

Less fortunate parts of the UK are getting more money out of the EU than they are putting in.

Ironically areas more likely to vote out

Wont be ironic when the taps are turned off

What about the immigrants from Europe on the dole? Lack of sovereignty?

I know and yes. Not ironic at all. More like tragic. You'd think they'd learn something from this? Nope. People have made similar mistakes in the past and will make them again in the future.

I'm American. In my state for every 1 dollar of tax revenue, 68 cents are spent in blue counties and $1.32 is spent in red counties. And yet the red counties are the ones constantly voting to reduce taxes and foaming at the mouth about government spending.

In london? I assume they're there but i've never noticed it. In rural east anglia or the north east, i bet an immigrant could not find them with both hands and a map

What about the millions of brits accessing reciprocal socail benefits and health rights in europe

A very good friend of mine who makes mid 6 figures as a svp on a british contract based in zurich living in france had a break down last year and has had months off courtesy of french social securitt on full pay.

Its not a one way problem

I think the lack of sovereignty and all the other issuse are far outweighed by the fact we will still be required to comply with european standards to do business there ans whilst no one wanta "all these immigrants" in the uk, tbey alao dont want the jobs wiping peoplea araes in care homes.

I started the prpcess to shut a ED in a large london hospital perhaps 6 yeara ago and as part of that process everyone and their brother , health secretary, locals, MP's were incensed but we could not get staff to run safe rota's 24 hours a day. Shortened shifts and redirecting patients out of hours created huge amounts of anger but there were not enough staff, many of whom were foreign nationals to run it.

The same people that want to vote out do not want the foreign staff here. You cant have it both ways

The lack of sovereignty on a day to day basis is most peoples lives is a abstract concept which some people will use as a reaaon to vote out. Ironically possibly at the expense of members of their own families jobs

What has me so incensed about this is that a bloke who's supremely charming, intelligent and articulate has spent months persuading these people to "take back control"

A fantasy for the demographic - they've never had any control, but telling them they can have something they have never had all to further his personal career objective is a disgrace

You seem very angry at the prospect of your house dropping in value because the majority of people may hold a different view to you. The establishment in the UK are quite happy with the status quo, but there are many, many people who see the downsides of EU membership. Personally, it benefits me as I rent a house out in the southeast of England and the steady growth of the population makes it easy to rent out at a good rate, however it also makes it very difficult for ordinary families to buy houses which is compounded by the wage compression caused by easy availability of migrant labour. I'm all for an increased minimum wage to help these 'hard working families', but within the EU this is likely to just increase inward migration and compound the housing problem. You may say why not build more houses, but again, most people don't want more houses near them.

Very insightful post all around, and the above is probably the best summary of the whole ordeal that I've read so far!

Cheers,
malte

No, the house price thing is annoying - its not fatal - I'll survive, I'm not, in the long run going to be hurt by it. London will survive - prime, super-prime and basic family homes will steep be in demand as limited supply is so constrained. My property may dip, it will come back, its poor timing but c'est la vie.

What really pisses me off about this - and I am personally pretty hedged (paid in dollars, dual national, assets in euro's, sterling and dollars) is that Boris, and less so Gove (who was an idiot at education, again at justice and has now just hedged his own career on the boris bandwagon knowing the cameron / osbourne party wouldn't have him) is that these people have lied.

Their only belief is that we will "take back control" - from who, of what, whats the impact of that on the daily life of someone working on a ward in a DGH, or as an administrator in swindon - nothing, its a fantasy

What we know though - with almost absolute certainty (and if this does not happen I'll come back and say I was wrong - I've no problem with that) is that we are about to enter a minimum 2 year period of massive uncertainty almost certainly involving getting the commons, then the lords to pass bills for the exit if not before a leadership contest on the right, a snap national election and then the unpicking of the minutiae of our relationship with the largest trading block on earth.

Now - Boris, Gove and others can say that they do not think Germany is going to put up a fight in the gamble of german cars versus german workers going in to elections next year

What they have not said though - is that is not the gamble, Germany's gamble is that if they concede an inch in the next 2 years (far more likely to be 5-10) that the whole EU comes tumbling down around them, starting with the Dutch, Scandinavia and Italy and we've no idea what Greece and Portugal would do (best thing they could do is exit the Euro and just do holidays and feta cheese)

So, yes, the house thing is annoying, and yes, maybe Friday I wake up and I lose a couple of hundred grand on a property I'm trying to get rid of - but that's not the end of the world 1) because some it will go back in to London real estate at a corresponding drop in price and 2) because where I am also looking to buy is probably going to be impacted far more severely by the UK exiting the EU than even the UK - the french real estate market

The migration argument - one, a fact that is repeatedly overlooked during the campaign, we no longer need to pay benefits for people who arrive with no job and have just relocated to get on the dole, two, the truth is that we piss and moan about the people from X, from Y and from Z that come here and take our jobs.

In all the time I worked in health and social care, it was not the local unemployed school leavers who were falling over themselves to get jobs as trainee's or apprentices or health care assistants in the NHS, care homes or assisted living facilities. Those jobs were filled by immigrants - both EU and non EU.

I've worked in probably half the major london teaching hospitals who's ED's are staffed with locums in order to provide 24 hour cover - these are EU and non EU immigrants

I shut an ED in a very conservative anti-immigration part of london - we could not offer 24 hour coverage so went to days only. The consequence of that is you can not offer maternity, you therefore can not offer training posts for juniors rotating through their academic training, the end result is it shuts

The outrage that we would shut their ED and force them to travel a further 7 miles to the nearest open facility that could be safely staffed. If you point out though that the inability to obtain people that want to live and work there was the cause and that they need immigrants to do it - well, thats different, dont want that then.......

I'm annoyed, I am incensed, this has been far less about some national discontent - though I accept that there is an undercurrent of it - than the fact that Farage has almost unbelievably manipulated and engineered the situation where the conservatives to sort out an internal policy issue made an election manifesto pledge that has resulted in this, which is now being fought on the back of not the best interests of the country, but the very specific personal ambition of one individual

I supported Boris - he was a great mayor, I've seen him speak privately a number of times, he's a extremely bright, capable individual but he has - without a shadow of a doubt - made this entirely about his elect-ability as camerons replacement over any national interest.

The rest of it has been a f**king side show. All this take back control nonsense is just it. We'll wake up friday, the markets will close, panic will set in, we'll take a haircut on the FTSE, pound will sink - but it will all stagger back up, be it slowly or quickly, but none of it will change the fact that so long we UKPLC wants to do business with the remaining 27 members of the EU which is worth 44% of UK exports, we need to comply with their rules. The only difference on Friday (obviously not Friday - obviously after bills pass through commons and lords) will be that we will no longer have any influence at all on how those regulations are written in to law.

just jumping in - is it looks like Bremain or Brexit at he moment?

bookies, markets and phone polls say remain. online polls leave

issue with polls is that if you exclude undecideds they're all 45-55 either way e.g. 48 stay 52 go 53 stay 47 go but that discounts the fact that it appears undecideds hover around 10%

to close to call and whatever the result neither side will be satisfied. though my hope is that its close enough to scare the sh*t out of the EU but I suspect not........

According to this, Remain by 10 points right now.

http://www.independent.co.uk/...opulus-a7097261.html