Just saw this too. Here is a link.

http://www.nytimes.com/...rtner=IFTTT&_r=1

According to the article she has never run more than 10 miles. That can't be possible, can it?
"That race is only 11 weeks away, and it will be 16.2 miles longer than the farthest Jorgensen has ever run."

This is what I posted in the other thread;

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That's really cool. I think the bar is 2:37 for pro triathlete women by Erin Baker, Sonja Krolich (sp?) and 2:38 in Boston by Jackie Gallagher (RIP) which she then improved on with a 2:32 at the Nagoya Marathon. MacMillan puts a 32 min 10K runner at 2:30. Derate that a bit for the difficulty in NYC and the hills in the closing loop in central park. How fast does Gwen run an open 10K?
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Having said that, if she really has not run more than 10 miles, I would be curious to hear if she has done any 75-90 mile run weeks with double runs. If she has, I would not be worried about the 10 mile long run. She is genetically blessed, has superb and symmetrical form and can run fast at the end of a 2 hour event already.

But running "that fast for that long" can be a different animal....witness Mark Allen's disaster race at the Berlin Marathon 1994. He was supposed to go sub 2:20 and that never happened. He DNFd from wooden quads. I am not aware of a single pro male triathlete who has gone sub 2:20 (Ryan Bolton and Christian Bustos ran 2:22). Jackie Gallagher has that unreal 2:32 high bar from the Nagoya marathon. She also had a bronze medal from the Commonwealth Games marathon:

https://en.wikipedia.org/...3_Women%27s_marathon


Why do I know all this shit? Well for the longest time I was a marathoner who raced way faster at open marathon than my equivalent IM run times....so was alway interested in what the pros would do in the odd event they did an open marathon

Is this just a celebrity appearance to cruise along and wave the flag or will she actually be using this as a litmus test to establish an open marathon time ?

It does seem awful soon to really go for it. Probably pays well and helps her elevate her profile.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

That is a lot of information Dev. Gwen ran the Sydney:10 road race in 2014 and 2015. 32:12 was her 2015 time. Both years she was the top female finisher beating Eloise Wellings by ~35 seconds each year. In Rio, Ms. Wellings was 10th in the 10k and 9th in the 5k.

She's starting with the pros apparently.

How much do you reckon she's getting paid to do this?

Sitting at 6 minute pace to cruise to a 2:37 is much much easier than going sub 2:20. Fwiw vanort has gone 2:23 as well. Btw, the island house tri is the weekend before.

I would guess she is getting ~ 200K "appearance fee", based on my recollection of a an article I read on celebrity appearance fees at high profile marathons.

IIRC, the standard for the pro women corral in the NYC Marathon is ~2:50 so putting Gwen up there isn't really a stretch.

I'm getting a dead link, but maybe they mean that's 16.2 farther than she's ever raced? Even for a 10k race I'd imagine she's run way over 10 miles in training.

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I imagine that the author of the article is misunderstood. I would be shocked if she has never run farther than 10 miles and I bet she actually said she has never RACED farther than 10. If she has indeed never run farther than 10 miles, her coach is no less than a genius (which he might be anyway) and she is one of the most gifted runners in history (which she might be anyway). She has to be getting a generous appearance fee to make the jump to a full marathon in only 10 weeks. Minimum $150K.

NY Times on Gwen racing NYC Marathon

It's an ASICS-sponsored race and she is sponsored by them as well. I'm sure that has something to do with the decision...

Of course she has run more than 10 miles, it is raced if it is anything. Hell a warm up and warm down after a 10k race is more than 10 miles..

ANd Dev, Erin went 2;34 as I recall, so a bit faster than 2;37. I would expect Gwen to threaten that time, maybe even sub 2;30. She does not need a ton of lead up time, she already has all the endurance and speed she needs, just need some long runs to get her legs ready. 11 weeks is plenty of time if she is serious about it.

SHe has a little faster PR 10k than I did and I was able to run 2;36 in 8 weeks of running, backed up with tri training as a base for endurance. And although we have run similar times, she is a much better oure runner than I ever was, so I would expect that she do better as the distance gets longer.

she was a distance / mid distance runner in college. What does a typical Big 10 cross country workout look like?

I am putting the over/under at 2:33:15

From what I understand she's doesnt do that much mileage in training in comparison to other girls- around 60-70k weeks, where there are a lot of pro girls regularly hitting 100.

It'll be interesting to see how seriously she approaches the race, she still has Cozumel and likely Island House triathlons this season.

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Wisconsin's program is legendary. Mick Byrne is one of the most tenured coaches in the NCAA and his athletes put in a lot of volume, without a doubt. Obviously every athlete is different and maybe Gwen didn't do the typical distance workouts that her teammates did, but most of a Wisconsin distance runners quality days exceed 10 miles. I found a workout on Flotrack where the distance squad did a warmup, 3 mile tempo, 2 mile tempo, and then 8x400. Add in a cool down and you're at 11 miles easy.

Additionally, the vast of majority of NCAA distance programs, D3 on up, incorporate long runs of 10-15 miles on a weekly basis. Again, there is a chance Mick Byrne took a different approach with Gwen...

I am putting the over/under at 2:33:15//

I would agree with that time, have to know a lot more information though before deciding which side to take on it. IS she taking it serious, is she injury free, what is the weather forecast, and most importantly, is it a goal or a $$ opportunity she could just not pass up..

So awesome! My guess is that she'll run it in 2:45 or 3 hours and have fun with it.

jbailey500 wrote:

Gwen was on CNBC Squakbox this morning where she made the announcement that she will be racing the New York City Marathon this fall. Discuss!

For those that missed it. Here is the link to the Squak interview this morning.

http://video.cnbc.com/...ry/?video=3000545578

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I'm not surprised she's running a marathon (mostly because I'm sure she's getting a very nice appearance fee and maybe a bump in Asics money). I am very surprised she's never run more than 10 miles. I would have figured she was doing track workouts that would be long than 10.

The Olympic 10k runner on my ladies squad was around 80-90 mph, with more or less the same training as the men. Lots of 800 to 2k intervals, medium tempo runs and log runs of 12-15. Lots of morning doubles of 3-5 miles for recovery. Middle distance runners do more tempo and shorter intervals (300-1200), with less total volume. I was a 800-1500 runner and would put in about 60-70 miles/week. Long run was a still 12 or so, but probably 30 of the remainder was between 3:40 and 5:45 mile pace (55 sec 400's for the 3:40, not a full mile, obviously).

I wonder what her coaches think about this idea? I have to feel like her going red-line for a much longer distance than she's used to is a bad idea for her continuing tri form Wonder if there's a reality where she runs a passable but "easy" effort, collects her appearance fee and moves on? Would actually love to see her show up and lay down an amazing time, but just not sure it's in her best interest at this point to go that deep into the well. No one's ever asked me to be their tri coach before though, so may not know what I'm talking about!

From what I understand she's doesnt do that much mileage in training in comparison to other girls- around 60-70k weeks, where there are a lot of pro girls regularly hitting 100.

That is plenty if you are the type of runner who responds well to speed rather than distance. A lot of top running pro men had/do the same mileage, or even less. Simon lessing was famous for hardly ever running more than 6 miles in a day, at least until he did iron mans at the end of his career. He was a pretty good runner..(-;

hopefully she doesnt do that race.... feels like a race with only 3 pros racing each other. might as well be absolute time trial race.


it seems she is trying to match nicola spirig's efforts... spirig having gold, now silver .... did get the 2016 olympic B standard with 2:43

Yes all fair points- just making an objective statement. Her weekly mileage could potential be more important for a 42k as opposed to 10k run. But in saying that (backing up your point) Nicola doesnt run consecutive days, and her mileage is not that high either (injury risk).

A lot of the 'Wizards' workout are readily available on Strava (so I am not giving anything away) they did a lot of longer tempo work and some 2k rep stuff pre-Rio, almost no pure 'speed.' The trails out here in Vitoria are fantastic for running, so many options- not great for ego though as they are not that 'fast.'

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That race is one of her likely biggest paychecks, and it's one of her sponsors.

You guys are taking this wayyyyy to serious or not looking at the situation objectively. This is an athlete who's focused on 1 goal and 1 goal only for 4 years; which she just accomplished. Along with that is tons of publicity, etc. Her "training" is going to suffer; just natural.

Anyone remember Brownlees at HyVee, 1 month after London? I don't even remember if they finished, they probaly hadnt touched training in that month post Olympics.

So all this "is she going to take it serious"....think about it? Do you really think she is?

These are all the perks of winning a gold medal, appearance fees for racing, etc. This is where she's going to enjoy the gravy train for a while.

ETA: I think she's going to finish the year racing, but let's also be real....Cozumel will likely see chase group merge with front pack (maybe some takes a flyer off the front). Even decreasing her training intensity/volume/load, she's still going to be "fit". That will get her through the end of the year, and probaly still "train" some.

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Exercise Physiology
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What pro itu women run 100 miles a week? That's what pro marathoners run without having any swim or bike workouts.

Does she really have red bull in her water bottle on the bike or is she just pimping her sponsor?

What pro itu women run 100 miles a week?

Think he was referring to k's..

100K a week

Ok. That makes more sense. I think 100 miles of running for an itu pro would either drop dead or get hurt or both.

This is a strike while the iron is hot situation. Get paid as much as you can right after winning gold. She will go reasonable speed and go 2:45 or so. Good for her. Get paid Gwen!!

K's! Miles would be insanity.

Once you add 6 days a week of swimming and probably 4 rides, getting in 100ks is a huge order in itself

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I agree - while any marathon is obviously a huge effort, I'd guess a 2:50 is a lot easier than a 2:30. But I've never gone more than 15 miles, so what do I know...

Jamie Turner said this in the ST interview - sounds like he's open to her taking advantage of opportunities: JT: It’s really hard to predict what an [American] Olympic Gold Medal triathlete has on his or her plate when returning to the States. She’ll be full of opportunities, she’s got to make hay while the sun shines. It’s a fantastic opportunity for Gwen. Did we prepare for it? What is it worth in terms of opportunities presented? It’s hard to plan. It’ll be an exploration.

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Lansing Triathlon Team

Great. Looking forward to the 20 pages of man-splaining on tactics....

Monty, lets say you and her had the same run PB over 10K but she is around 40 lbs lighter than you, I would expect that alone would result in a substantially lower fade. Keep in mind NYC is not a fast course either. With some good training weeks she should be able to get close to 2:30, but 2:32-2:33 should be pretty safe if she decides to push herself.

I think if she takes the appearance money there is no way she's doing a parade and coming in at 2:59 and just having fun. I would think the organizers would have an expectation that the tri gold medalist mixes it up in the top 10-15 of the field at least for a while.

Sub 2:33 could put her top 10. I have a hard time seeing that happening. Would love to see it, but I don't think it's realistic.

ETA: For context, I believe 2:37 is the 'A' standard for US olympic trials. 2:33 is ridiculously quick, especially on a course that is not known to be fast.

I find it hard to believe as well, but the article is actually pretty clear in stating that she has never run more than 10 miles or raced longer than a 10k.

I just hope we see her riding the rollers at the start line while everyone else is doing striders

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With her 32 min 10K and lightweight, 2:30 should be possible. Derate for the NYC marathon course and we're down to 2:32-2:33. The question is how hard does she go. Maybe I am not derating enough for NYC. Back in the day Salazar ran 2:08 on that course, so I am assuming if you got a fast enough cool day without a ton of wind we should not have to derate Gwen much more than 2 minutes.

I don't think it makes much athletic sense for her to do a marathon.
Why bother?

She could probably finish a half marathon in a very competitive position.
(I bet she could go sub 1:10 if things went well).

But a fast marathon...
That's another matter entirely.
I think it would probably require a half year of specific training.

And why run a slow marathon?

I heard that too. I do not believe it, but who knows...

This is also a good point. Let's not lose sight of the recovery that is required from a maximal marathon effort. How does that fit into her training? I don't know the answer, but it's worth considering - even if she could run a low 2:30s on 10 weeks of marathon-specific training (which I doubt), does it even make sense to try? Or does it make more sense to 'jog' a 3ish?

It seems pretty obvious to me that many triathletes COULD HAVE run fast marathons.
But they didn't.

Here is the problem.
It takes a lot of time to learn to run fast for 26.2 miles.
Lots of triathletes can run 26.2 miles.
Lots of triathlete can run fast.
But to out these 2 things together is a half year project. (Or more).
And the ROI on a 2:16 marathon, or a 2:30, is just not that great if it means missing a year of triathlon.

I'd guess her ROI is more $$ focused.

If I was the NYC organizers and paying her an appearance fee, I might tie it to being competitive in some way. So perhaps the ROI is already good $$$ with enough time to recover before next year's season. Also let's not forget that a lot of pros are like age groupers in the sense they are smart enough to make enough money in careers out of triathlon (Gwen is). Some are also doing sport for some self actualization challenge. Who knows, as a runner in college she may have always had an itch to do a marathon and see how fast she could go. Now (presumably) she's getting an appearance fee to do something she always wanted to give a whirl anyway. How many tris does she have in the 4 months after early Nov. Probably zero anyway.

Exactly!

I daresay Asics came to her and asked. She thought "Yeah why not?" and she'll train accordingly. Much like IIRC one of the Serena Williams and Caroline Wozniacki both ran for the experience.

No idea. I legitimately drink Red Bull, but I know a few sponsored athletes who are sponsored but don't drink the stuff. Not sure about Gwen.

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Yeah but that is a short-term view. Whenever I see someone step up to the long-distance, I often disregard their short-course career from there out. This is why I have so much for respect for Nicola. What she has done is nothing short of amazing IME. If she has no aspirations for a second Gold then fine, but if she does she has to be careful with a max effort marathon (ie. why take a chance). The smart thing would be to back off and just do it for fun.

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yeah, history's not been kind to triathletes trying their hand in the single-sport world. (ask spencer smith, mark allen, jimmy riccitello, andrew johns, jackie gallagher, etc etc etc.) i mean, these people are top triathletes because they put it all together. even when they're excellent in one leg, their speciality is adding the other two.

gwen would be in a bit of funny place: assuming the most optimistic projections are correct and she's running mid-low 2:30s, that barely cracks the top-10 at NYC. what's the point of showing up and finishing 12th? she's not - at all - going to challenge for the win.

i think it's a great opportunity for exposure and an appearance fee, and by all means she could show up and run a solid time. but racing her guts out for a 2:3x doesn't seem a great idea to me. on the other hand, great value for her sponsors and her brand if she shows up a day early with her medal around her neck, does some seminars, signs some autographs . . . hell, i got lasse virren to sign my race number at just such 'meet n' greet' in melbourne years ago.

the woman just won the bloody olympics - she's got nothing to prove in new york.

-mike

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Unless the money is amazing, I don't get it.

As others have said, a marathon really beats you up - no matter who you are - and esp if you have not been putting in the miles. That can't help her training.

11 weeks is an ok amount of time to sharpen, but not sure what the end game is. Marathon training won't help her 10k run more than 10k specific training would, and marathon training could end up injuring her.

If she wants to run, it would make far more sense for her to focus on making a national XC team, or some shorter road race championships.

But then again, she is a gold medalist and I am not, so maybe she knows what she is doing.

You don't know who is in the pro field and how the pro budget is being allocated. Huddle wasn't cheap. There are years the nycm blows most of its pro budget on a few stars and the rest of the field is very thin. It's rare nyc has a deep women's field. Desiree ficker was 10th overall with a 2:39 in 2009.

Regardless, for Gwen this isn't about vying for the win. It's about cashing in (doubly with both Asics and the nyrr) while she can and a personal challenge in the offseason. Don't forget she won the dash to the finish line 2 years ago against a pretty solid field while in offseason relax mode. She will be more than competitive in the 2:30s and also get a nice payday.

Looked at last years results and it was quite competitive through top 10 or so. 2;24 to just under 2;30, so must have been a tight bunch til the 17 to 20 mile mark I would imagine. Did not see the race, but form times looks like how it went. Then you fall off to 2;33, right about where I would expect Gwen. If she were really serious about running a fast time, then top 10 could be in the cards.

And all you guys out there who think she would be foolish and it will wreck her season, or take away her speed somehow, that is silly. SHe is already a runner, a very good one. A couple month focus on a little more distance is not going to do anything to her triathlon speed next season, and these things can be very good for the athletes mindsets. It is also a box that most runners want to check off in their careers. SHe will be fine, probably could race well a month later if she wants. It is not that big a deal, it would be a one off for her, not like she is going to try and run 3 or 4 hard ones in a season like regular marathoners.

And she doesn't have to do any 140 miles a week either, I figure if she continues to cross train a bit, she could do very nicely on 60 to 70 miles a week for the lead up. Lots of triathletes have done well in running events on tri training and a little extra focus on the marathon. It is not as big a stretch as many of you are making it out to be. SHe isn't going to win the race, so no pressure there, just run a well paced and hard effort. SHe knows what low 2 hours feels like in a race, it is her specialty and has done it 100's of times.

And from what I can see, she is no glass doll either. Pretty tough all the way around, with a very smooth and efficient running style. Looks to me like she could very well be suited to the marathon, more so than 10k or 1/2.

Yep, this is about cashing in now. CNBC appearance, NYT article - the offer, on the table now, is likely a lot bigger than the same next year. The story is already there, building on the "fact" she's never run this far before.

I tried it once, not a fan at all. My physician has told me that it's not a healthy drink, I don't know what data she's quoting from or if strictly an opinion. I can't see hydrating with it in any sense.

Who knows though, stranger things are done everyday.

Thanks for posting this. I've always been fascinated with this topic as well. What is a common open marathon time for pro ironman triathletes? 2:40?

..witness Mark Allen's disaster race at the Berlin Marathon 1994. He was supposed to go sub 2:20 and that never happened. He DNFd from wooden quads. I am not aware of a single pro male triathlete who has gone sub 2:20 (Ryan Bolton and Christian Bustos ran 2:22). Jackie Gallagher has that unreal 2:32 high bar from the Nagoya marathon//

Unless you know something I don't, Mark was kind of sick for that race.Perhaps that caused him to have wooden quads. Pretty sure no one runs a good marathon sick, although I have seen Mark win races like NICE waking up with a runny nose and sore throat. Cost him a lot physically, but he was one tough dude. Pretty sure he could have gone under 2;20 at some point, just wasn't that important to him. He raced sparingly as a triathlete, so not surprising. Dude ran 5;45 pace at Nice and around 6 flat at Hawaii. Not sure why people think it a stretch that he could have run at the worst 5;30 pace or better for a marathon. He did a training 10 race once in sub 30, so we know he had 5;00 speed for that distance.


Mark Sissons ran a 2;17 prior to triathlon, Bustos I believe went 2;19, and Benajaman Parades did a 2;10 after being a duathlete. Most the good running pros at ironman distance would run in the low 2;20's, with a few under I presume. Hard not to see that after seeing legit triathlon splits. Just like Allistar running his 28;30 10k, pretty easy to predict from his multitude of just sub 30 10k triathlon splits(legit or handicapped for the short courses)


And many of the women have run sub 2;40 in their stand alones, the 2;32 you mentioned and Erin Bakers 2;34 being the best of the bunch. I have no doubt that Rinny, Chrissy, Sprig, 1/2 dozen Aussies past and present, all could run in the mid to low 2;30's also. Just never did it. Doesn't mean they could not have, they just did not have that on their bucket lists. It is a minor disturbance in a busy schedule, but not a big deal if they are up for it mentally.


Now would they be world class runners, depends on your definition. Is getting top 5 or 10 in chicago, new york, or boston world class, I believe it is. Of course it is not best in the world like many have been in triathlon, but respectable non the less in that stand alone sport. I still think Alllister has a 28 flat in him, and although not on the very pointy end, he would still be on the same lap as the winners in just about any race..

Hey Monty, I think we are aligned that many top running male triathletes SHOULD be able to hit low 2:20's. Keep in mind though that top male triathletes are 155-160 lbs. This is a massive amount of weight to go much under 2:20. I did not know that Mark Allen was sick for Berlin, but a lot was made of that attempt and I believe Mark took the build up seriously, or that's how it was positioned in the tri media....maybe they just blew it up. You bring up a good one on Paredes, but he was as much of a marathoner as he was a duathlete...look at his profile:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjam%C3%ADn_Paredes


Do you know his "size"? Was he around 130 lbs? That's going to be too small to be a top IM pro (there are none that size). It's basically mutually exclusive running elite marathon fast and doing IM fast. Even a 2:1x marathoner will be too small to do IM's at the pro level....just not enough mass to TT fast.


Over on the women's side, I would be surprised if Carfrae, Chrissie, Spirig could run under 2:30. Their open 10k's just don't support that. Their magic is not fading much over their theoretical open marathon time at the IM marathon. I doubt that Carfrae's delta is 15 min between her ultimate open marathon and her 2:48 IM run. I'd put her at mid to low 2:30's but not under. We'll likely never know though.


I don't think a single IM pro today on the men's side could break 2:20. Not even Ivan Rana who gets closer to the right body size to do it. IM pros are just physically too heavy. I'd love to be proven wrong. I doubt Frodo could do it. Maybe Alistair or Jonny Brownlee or Gomez on the cusp but they are not IM pros.

I don't think a single IM pro today on the men's side could break 2:20. Not even Ivan Rana who gets closer to the right body size to do it. IM pros are just physically too heavy. I'd love to be proven wrong. I doubt Frodo could do it. Maybe Alistair or Jonny Brownlee or Gomez on the cusp but they are not IM pros. //

I agree, sub 2;20 is pretty special. And I also agree that it would be more likely that some ITU guys would be more likely to give it a go. Benjamin Parades was a duathlete, not really a triathlete. He did do some iron mans, but his swim was just too bad, like Souza's. But a lot of those pro duathletes were just like the ITU guys today. Many were sub 30 and 29 10k runners, so easily could have stepped up to marathon. Most all the great marathon guys I have seen over the years have stepped up from being fast 10 k runners. That is why I think Gwen has a great chance to be really good, and her 2 hour race experience is just a bonus for a solid 10k runner.


I remember a guy I used to swim with in the old days was trying really hard to make it in the early ITU scene. He had run a 13;38 and mid 28 for 5 and 10k. He certainly would have been sub 2;20 too in the marathon, Craig Watley I think his name was. And there was an old lifeguard from my dept that did ITU for awhile, he was a 28;30 10k runner too, name slips me right now. He banged his head for many years in the ITU with a sub par swim, usually having the fastest run split from the 2nd or 3rd bike pack..THere are a bunch more like those guys too, but lost to history because they could not repeat 100's on the 1;10 scy.

I'm sure. Pete Jacobs had a similar plan after he won Kona (LA not NYC), but it never happened.

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Adam bohach ran 2:26 at Grandmas of all places. He weighed like 175lbs and was 5 10. No you don't know him but there are some crazy talented Runner's out there in triathlon.

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Surprised this thread went 3 pages without a mention of Jorgensen possibly doing the marathon (apart from the $) as a step on the way to racing long course. Have I missed an interview where she has said that doing IM down the road is out of the question? Also surprised that the NYT article didn't mention IM.

She tweeted that she drank RedBull on the bike...

Sure, she also said that in the interview on CNBC. By all means, not saying Gwen is lying, but I have seen plenty of athletes lie about what they use. I wouldn't say either way, as that is not my place in triathlon, although in general, I will say that it is frustrating when companies throw significant money at people, only for them not to even use their products / services. IME, the companies could find people who are lovers of their products and are still very good athletes and could be great, authentic ambassadors.

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I meant that she had just tweeted about drinking it on the bike when asked again. So if she's lying, she's doubling down. At least no Brazilian gas stations in Brazil are in her story...

lie

Gotcha. I would suspect she drinks it. I mean I drink red bull, not like it is water, but I drink it.

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Can we not think of athletes like Gwen in terms of a carrer? I know I can. You're absolutely right, she has nothing to prove in NY.
Yet, her being there does her career a ton of good, and arguably the entire sport of Triathlon as well. Perhaps she'll leave some of her "guts" in reserve (i sure hope so)

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http://www.PatGriskusTri.com USAT Certified Race Director
2024 Races: USAT State of CT Age Group Championship/State of CT HS Champs/ CT Club Championship - Sat June 15th (Oly/Du/Sprint) Hopkins Vineyard Tri at Lake Waramaug Saturday July 13th http://www.HopkinsVineyardTri.com

I drank a can before IMFL 70.3 because it was free in the bag. I am sure it was my training and the low humidity that got me a great day but I drink that stuff before every race now, lol.

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

She has stated several times that she has no interest right now in doing an Ironman. I think at the end of the race she will be able to answer that question a little clearer, "Yep, I could do that after a swim and a bike." or "No way in hell do I want to do that after a swim and a bike!!"

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

I think she'll lack the specificity to do much better than maybe a 2:40. Honestly, I'd guess she cruises at around the same pace she runs the 70.3 at Island House. I think she'll just lean on her training which I'd guess probably is around 50-60 miles per week already with a long tempo run each week and a some speed work ("lower" miles because of more quality). She's doesn't get injured a lot, so I suspect her weekly run mileage isn't huge. That's what will limit her time in the marathon.

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TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

We can debate it all we want, but the important missing piece of info in all this is how she approaches it. Does she take it really seriously and give a maximal effort on 10ish weeks of specific training, in which case I could see sub-240. Or does she just 'fun run' it, in which case I'm thinking somewhere around 3.

Island House is not a 70.3 race. http://www.slowtwitch.com/...tional_Tri_5455.html

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Make Inside Out Sports your next online tri shop! http://www.insideoutsports.com/

She quite frankly has nothing to prove in triathlon. I mean reaching 20 wins in a row would it really make a difference? She's the Chrissie of short course. If she wants to go rip of a marathon in the middle of winter more power to her. Unless she somehow really hurts her self it will have zero effect on next years season. Taking a mental break from swimming and biking may be beneficial too her anyways.

"Running with the Buffaloes" is a great book. It's basically a daily journal of what it was like on the Colorado XC team for an entire season. Plenty of runs over 10 miles.

The work those people put in and the pain they endure is phenomenal. Plus, they're full time students with many earning serious degrees (engineering, etc.).

A bit more info in this Runner's World article from yesterday - http://www.runnersworld.com/...ill-run-nyc-marathon

Well, I mean it has caffeine in it. We know caffeine can be an a very effective training aid.

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I am disappointed you missed Spirig's 2:37 at Euro champs 2014 (quite a hilly course I think) ;)

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Searching for the bliss of ultimate exertion.

Did they use a different course than the regular Zurich marathon for the championships? That regular on mostly follows the shoreline of Lake Zurich and appears from the posted profiles to be pretty darn flat with a total vertical of 132ft. The NYC marathon has a 885 vertical just for reference. I see that it was cloudy with temperatures in the low/mid 50s for pretty nice in that regard for the 2014 Zurich European Championships.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

That article references running an hour and 40 minutes as part of her training. Even if she did a slow (for her) 7 minute mile pace; that would be over 14 miles. So perhaps that other article wasn't fully accurate regarding the 10 mile max. Either way, it will be fun to see how she does; and any publicity for triathlon should be good for the sport. Now if they could just get Spirig to sign up and start talking some smack :)

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#cancersucks - In memory of my brother, helping his kids

It was a different course but I can't seem to find the details now.

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Searching for the bliss of ultimate exertion.

brilliant idea! kienle and frodeno played that really well in germany.

Or even more interesting, get Spirig into the Island House Tri as well.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

You're right I found this regarding the course. "Don’t expect any world records this weekend – the four circuits around the centre of the city will be significantly harder than Zürich’s usual flat, fast lake-side route. However, the quality field and the challenging inclines will almost certainly guarantee an exciting, tactical race and provide a fitting climax to the 2014 European Athletics Championships." as well as a Youtube of the route. It was definitely tougher than the standard Zurich course.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt-Lzy-lsvI

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Yes, that would be very interesting!

Dear Gwen;
You did great in the Olympics and we appreciate how you, Sarah and Katie represented Team USA.

Enjoy your NY marathon but please take it easy. Cash the check. Meet some fun people. jog a bit.

Racers gonna race, but you deserve a break.

Cheers,
Slick

Except that Mick was not the XC coach when Gwen ran at the UW in 2008-09, Jim Stintzi was. That position was eliminated in 2014 due to staff restructuring and Mick has taken over duties.

Stintzi is now the HC of the Michigan State XC program.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Really? Did Walt Drenth leave? He just won a national championship with our women last year...still listed on the website.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

From what I can tell, jim is the head coach and Walt is the director.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

From what i gather from her Instagram, she isn't going to go flat out for the marathon.

Had a great time in NYC this week where I announced I will be running the @nycmarathon I have always wanted to do a marathon and post Olympics seemed like the perfect time to try one. I know there is no way I can prepare properly in such a short amount of time while also training for my last two tris. The marathon will be a grueling event so I am setting zero goals and expectations. The event is an LSD (look, search, discover) experience. Today I am heading down to Florida to get back into 🏊🚴🏃with the @gongwizards in preparation for Cozumel & @islandhousetri

According to Instagram, she is planning between a 2:31 and a 2:38.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BLkPnCkBH0g/?hl=en

That seems like a super long range. I'd expect her to say 2:31-2:34 or 2:36 to 2:38. Sounds like she is giving herself the option of going for 2:31 with the off ramp to 2:38 if it does not go that well in the middle miles?

Ah c'mon Dev, that's not that big of a range. Allows for a good day/bad day as well as a healthy dose of humility. If she said "I'm there to run a 2:31" and ran a 2:33, we'd be lambasting her for having unrealistic expectations.

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Eliot
blog thing - strava thing

What she is really saying is, "I want to run 2:31, and I think i can run 2:31 but to save face, I am giving you the BS excuse of non optimal preparation and the bail out options of 2:38 so I can save face and just say it is a training run". I call BS on the entire large range and would tell her that to her face, just like I would tell any good marathoner giving out a giant range like that.

I totally understand she has "nothing to prove" in triathlon but pretty well every top end tri athlete is somewhat full of shit when they say they go to a run race and having nothing to prove. If anything there run split at a run race is more scrutinised than a run split in a triathlon.

I hope she cranks off a time a the low end. As a fan, I want to see her hurt all the way to the fastest time she can squeeze out. I realize guys are going to say, they don't want to see her doing something that will hurt her tri career which none of us want, but there should be a lot of time to recover after this.

Biggest thing to me is she is going to do more CX races. Post Olympic Gold Medal Year means no real serious events and lots of trying other things that sound cool and/or fun.

Bit bloody harsh there dude, all she said was she did her longest training run and faded a bit, she never mentioned a goal time at all.

Oh come on! She's only been training for this for what, about 8 weeks? She's not an experienced half or marathon distance runner, who has 6 - 12 months of marathon paced long runs to give her a good idea of what she's likely to do, so of course it's a wide range.

Wow, that's really harsh.
I think she's just respecting the distance and being realistic about the fact that this is new for her and she doesn't know how her body will fare over those last 10k

OK, then why give the 2:31? She could have just said she is going to do a steady solid effort and try to break 2:40, but if she also gave a top end of 2:31, well then she is taking this more seriously than she's wanting to let on. Based on providing that wide range, it seems like she is wanting to give it a solid go, but giving herself a chance to comfortably slow down if it gets rough. I liked it better when Mark Allen raced Berlin and he was up front about trying to go 2:15 (he DNF'd but at least he said what he wanted to do). I realize that as a fan I can choose to be unreasonable, but I think it is a good thing if fans actually track endurance athletes. Gwen jogging in for a 2:39.xx is not that interesting (might be great for her to get the experience, but as a fan it seems like a performance failure). Heck, Rinny has run sub 2:50 off the bike in Kona.

Can you send the article/tweet where she gave this range? Thanks

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https://twitter.com/mungub

serious response?.....you are really being a dink.

She DID NOT give a goal time. She simply stated the paces she ran her workout at (3x7km). And wrote that she wasn't sure what marathon pace really is. Chaparral simply calculated a finish time based on those paces.
Everyone, cool it.

This is her post:



Also, Mark Allen set out to crush a marathon. Gwen is not doing that. She is really truly doing it for fun and experience. She is training seriously for it, will run as hard as she can, but her goal, as she has stated multiple times, is to just do it. Nothing more.

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Group Eleven – Websites for Athletes / mikael.racing / @mstaer

Have you considered that very often marathon pace differs from the first 10k to the last10k...as in, 10 second per km different. Fades are not at all unusual even for elites. Seems like a really odd thing for you to be so critical about.

Wait...Pubes is hammering me for being critical? I guess I have elevated myself around here in that case! I'll count that as a win.

OK OK if this was a board talking about NFL quarterbacks my tone/commentary would be relatively benign in terms of calling out a professional athlete. I am just not buying that Gwen is going to go to NYC to jog. At the end of the day she is a competitive athlete so if she has a shot of going fast, I am certain she will. It seems like she is just giving herself a lot of bail out excuses up front. Jackie Gallaghar, Erin Baker, Mark Allen, Christian Bustos, Ryan Bolton, Lisa Bentley....all elite triathletes who did marathons with the intention of drilling it on race day with no bail out clauses. I bet you if Gwen can she will also drill it, but she seems to be lightening up on the pressure to set low expectations (and I understand why she would after the real pressure of a 4 year run to the olympic gold). As a fan though, if top triathlon elite runners enter a marathon major in the pro field, I'd like to see the rip it up. Same reason why waaaay back in the day with Pigg+Riccitello+Zack+Monty etc as a team of triathletes beat the Canadian National Cycling team at the Redlands classic it was an awesome moment for our sport. Kirsten Armstrong going over from being a strong triathlete cyclist to top cyclist is awesome. Ritchie Porte growing up as a triathlete and ripping it up at pro cycling is awesome. Would be great as a fan and a participant in tri to see what Gwen can truly do. It's not really interesting to see her do the parade at NYC. If you are going to do that, go enter the Wineglass Marathon in Corning where there is no hype and no attention and job a 2:39.59

Funny, a five page thread about her alleged goal being to finish between X and Y, and nowhere did she state this was her goal.

You know the history of triathletes running marathons, so how many of them basically went into it with no "real marathon" training?

GJ and ASIC aren't doing this to drill it and see what she can do. This is a paid advertisement for the Olympic champion and one of her biggest sponsors. This is going to be a long and likely painfully fun event for her to be "with the people" so to speak. Hell, she isn't even done with triathlons and likely one of her biggest paycheck races. So you want to peg her for not going all in on this event, or letting herself have an "out". Jeez man, I would think you would be one of the few that would understand how and why someone could have a 7 min goal difference gap.

So did all those other great triathletes, did they do basically little marathon training before their big marathons?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

OK, I do get that she's "our champion" and I should not be so critical of her wanting to do a parade at NYC marathon, but to some degree, as a fan, I don't want to see pro athletes doing parade workouts, I want to see them racing (even if they are going over to single sport events). To my best knowledge the only pro triathlete that hopped in a marathon to do sponsor obligations was Stadler in 2007. His Dresdener Kleinworth team was sponsored by the bank with that name who was the sponsor of the Frankfurt marathon. Originally it was supposed to be Kona 2007 (defending his win from 2006) and then rightfully a parade at Frankfurt. He DNF'd at Kona 2007. He definitely did not go all out at Frankfurt and ran 2:32 which is slow given his running pedigree (anyone thinking his 2:55 Kona run time was anywhere near his IM run speed if he chose to bike easier is fooling themselves). He said he was hoping for a 2:27ish. It seems like even though he went into a bit of a parade mode, he did give it a solid shot. The others, Erin Baker, Sonia Krolich, Jackie Gallaghar and Lisa Bentley, they went in as racers. I don't know their prep, but none had any tourism intentions.

We could debate that ITU run training is more in line with open marathon run training/speeds than IM run training too. Stadler training for an IM would not be doing enough miles at his open marathon speed, whereas Gwen would be doing a ton of miles faster than her open marathon speed. Stadler however said at the time he was running 110-120K per week for his Kona defence, so this obviously helps on the durability front.

In any case, I think it being a free world athletes are entitled to be doing whatever they want and it being a free world, sponsors can do with athletes what they want and of course fans can choose to think and support what they want. Your interest and mine might be totally different and that's fine!

Well she said that the repeats were at marathon pace and the repeats were between those paces, so I think her goal is somewhere between those paces.

Awesome thing is Pubes is 100% correct, you're just digging yourself a deeper hole by not conceding.

I agree that on a tri board I am digging a hole by typing this shit about wanting to see how fast a tri gold medalist can run a marathon. On Letsrun, they'll have a field day if she goes into tourist mode (and I'll be on their side).

Dev, I think my question was simply to get a parameter on the situation.

This isn't an "go out and drill it" race for GJ. She's not prepared for that, and she's certainly likely not "mentally" ready for that. This is a race that you'll see her go out and run the fastest she can run within her abilities at the current time. so if that means holding back, so be it. I don't think she "parades" it, as I think she'll run very respectable effort. You seem outright upset and wronged if she doesn't go out there and try and kill herself for a fast time. And you are free to feel that way, but in my opinion misguided line of thinking when you understand the limitations of marathon training, the reason she's even running this event, her schedule right now, etc. She's not in it to "crush" this. Much more realistic to show up and put in a very hard effort, suffer some but likely maintain a sensible effort the whole time.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

You're digging a hole because she mentioned a goal pace and you're ranting on about fall back paces.

She posted paces from one workout and faded as you would expect a 5-10k tri specialist to fade.

I think we are generally aligned. My main point is that with the prep for ITU WCS and Rio, it's not that far off from being optimally prepared for a fast marathon for a triathlete (we're not talking 2:22 women, we're talking a full 10 min+ slower). She should be able to run a fairly fast time close to her theoretical McMillan calculator potential without too much (Monty kind of pointed that up early in the thread).

If she goes and parades/jogs as a triathlon fan I'd be disappointed to see that. Of course we'll once again get the endless banter from single sport athletes (in this case runners) that triathletes are sucky and can't do a sport well so they do 3 sports badly, whereas some triathletes have endurance capacities that are truly world class they just are not physically built to be fast at single sport (ex, size of top male marathoners vs top ITU vs top Ironman, or top protour climber vs top IM pro, or top pro triathletes vs Phelps....just different body types). So it's nice when top tri pros go in single sport events that they do a fast performance. When Bjorn Andersson went in the Swedish TT championships and did OK, that was cool.

Have you read about her run prep in ITU? No 10 mile runs, limited "long" run mileage etc., So now she should be able to handle a run calculator that calculates paces on premise that the athlete does the approx volume to finish the marathon properly???? So why you are using McMillan estimate calculator, doesn't make sense.

Again which is my whole point that seems to be lost by you. GJ by way of just winning Olympics and not even completed her tri season isn't in shape to "run fast" in a marathon. So if/when she throttles it back to make sure she can run a "good and fair" race that's what will happen.

She certainly will give it a good/honest effort. She's not going to wave to the crowd for 26 miles but don't look to this event as some event she needs to carry the triathlon flag to see where she stands.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think you are underestimating how much all that fast running and reasonable volume albeit at shorter single instance distances can carry a very light elite level athlete. The magic of marathon training is not long runs. It's lot of mileage at or above marathon pace. All that ITU racing at way above marathon pace is going to carry her (or for that matter anyone who is that light) a long way on the day of a marathon. I bet you she surprises herself at to how easy it feels for how long when she does it. Until she gets to the last 5-6 miles in Central park, but I think most here are discounting her potential on race day due to lack of long running. All that fast running in training and over the ITU distance is going to be really helpful. She had plenty of time to cram in a few 1:45 to 2 hour runs at close to marathon pace. That should feel fairly easy for her. For elite men's marathoning the first 90 min is the warmup. For elite women it's like 1:45-1:50. For both it's the final 30 minutes that's the hard part. At sub elite marathon levels, Gwen gets to 1:50- 2 hours without any major calamities quite easily.

So I guess we agree to disagree. She has 80-90% of the prep to run a reasonably fast marathon already done by Rio. It's just the last bit of specificity. Off memory, Monty was saying earlier in this thread that she had enough time to get enough specificity in to get close to full prep. I agree with that.

She had plenty of time to cram in a few 1:45 to 2 hour runs at close to marathon pace.

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She has? When was she suppose to almost double her reported longest runs over her tri training career?

ETA: she's suppose to go from reportedly what zero 10 mile runs to a few 17-20 mile runs since Rio? 77 days if my math is correct to go from longest run of 1 hour to running fast for 2:32.
There isn't a coach I know that would recommend a few 17-20 mile runs within the time period you are talking about for an athlete that hasn't run longer than what 9 miles in 4-5 years?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

You are kidding me? Anyone who is that fast and that light and can run pretty hard for 30-60 min can just dial it down a few notches roll out of bed tomorrow and run 2 hours with no injuries. Seriously, it's not rocket science. Sure, she will be a bit sore, but barely for a few days no worse than a hard track workout, but if you're going to be doing a full marathon 2 months later there is plenty of time to easily ramp from 60 min to 120 minutes given the caliber of athlete at hand. You just go slower to ease into it, but she could easily have larger 15-30 min jumps just to feel out the longer distances. It's not like she has to add 5 min - 10 min per week to her long run and gradually build like a newbie

One of my buddies who I went to biz school with ran in the 10,000m at Barelona and Seoul Olympics. His 10K time was high 27.xx. His theoretical best time should have been 2:12 or so, maybe 2:14 on the NYC course. Shortly after Barca, he went to run NYC since his sponsor had a bunch of their runners doing it. He targeted 2:15 and blew up in the last 6 miles and ended in 2:17. His long run leading in was ~90 minutes. He just did not get around to building up and knew the last 40 minutes would be tough, but at 125-130 lbs, and with a large engine, you get a lot of free pass compared to mere mortals. I see Gwen in the same camp. Big engine speedster with great body composition with fabulous form and lightening fast over 10k (at least lightening fast for a triathlete). Plus she has a ton of experience racing for 2 hours already. My 5000m-10000m specialist friend did not have that advantage.

So what is your predicted time for her?

What's the "slowest" she can run without you calling out her professsionalism?

My guess: 2:40-2:42


Mcmillians predicted time based on 10 mile result: sub 2:30


ETA: I also don't give 2 shits what she runs and don't expect her to carry the tri flag against runners. I think she will run a very respectable time and effort. Will it be enough to satisify dev Paul, I guess we'll see.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Don't you ever get tired of having an opinion on everything?

Most world class 10,000 meter runners are already running 90-120 miles a week.

Not really, I just post more than a lot of people so it sounds like that.

I'm just particularly interested when pro triathletes run open marathons. You can see from the postings that I've followed most of the attempts fairly closely going back to Mark Allen and Christian Bustos. We could add Ben Paredes from the duathlon side who went full steam into open running....2:10 open marathon, 2:11 at NYC, Pan Ams gold medal. Monty knows him. Slowman mentions him in this article about Zofingen:

http://www.slowtwitch.com/...pinion/duathlon.html

That's fair but this guy (he is the race director of the Ottawa marathon, you can read his bio online) did not run that much. But you certainly need to run way more volume to run low 2:1x then low 2:3x. Low 2:1x is a completely different world of pounding and muscle trauma (regardless of being a man or woman). You can run a low 2:3x with way less mileage for sure.

Hey, I don't recall anywhere calling out her professionalism. I just said as a fan I'd expect to see much more than a jog/fast training run (if not go to a low key marathon with no pro field, to just get an experience). I think she can and should go faster than Erin Baker. Here is some nice reading about Erin and what she did juggling tri and open running:

http://www.si.com/...s-a-woman-on-the-run

If you can understand a bit of German the wikipedia german entry also touches on her marathoning:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erin_Baker

I would think that Gwen can blow away Erin's 2:36 and 2:39. Erin was confident she could go sub 2:30 but to my best knowledge never did. Her husband Skid posts on ST from time to time (you guys may recognize him as the winner of Kona 1988), and maybe if he gets wind of this thread, he could share if she ever really did a pure marathoner build or if she just did them off tri training.

Dev

dev, you are being way too harsh on someone who never has even run a HM and who isn't exactly super focused on marathon training. most people who have a lot of experience racing marathons and who are solely focused on racing a marathon can't even predict their actual times with any precision. even if she runs 2:38, which probably will be top 10 for the women, how bad a result is that for someone who basically is just winging it and who will have done a 3-day triathlon the weekend before against the best competition in the world?

And I doubt doing cyclocross, like she did saturday, is part of any program to max out your marathon performance....

I scanned this thread and didn't see mention of her finishing 3rd at the USATF 10 mile national championship last week at the Twin Cities 10 Miler in 53:13, less than 30" behind winner Jordan Hasay. While probably not part of a targeted marathon training plan, CX can be incredibly difficult and shouldn't be underestimated!

specificity......

I'm more impressed by the fact that he might have name dropped every US and Canadian pro from the 80s in this thread.

And no, he never tires of having an opinion on everything and anything. I can't get away fast enough from personalities like his. I know because I've been around him in person.

Hey, some of you are going on a tangent hammering the messenger (my skin is thick, its OK). The reason I gave examples since the 80s is because this topic has sporadically come up (pro triathletes doing open marathons) and being an age grouper during this entire, time, I've keenly followed the results (and to note, there have not been as many pro triathletes in this era trying open marathons as was the case in the past)

This is what Monty wrote earlier in this thread. He was a pro triathlete who did it himself:

monty
Aug 24, 16 7:38

Post #15 of 130 (5025 views)
Of course she has run more than 10 miles, it is raced if it is anything. Hell a warm up and warm down after a 10k race is more than 10 miles..

ANd Dev, Erin went 2;34 as I recall, so a bit faster than 2;37. I would expect Gwen to threaten that time, maybe even sub 2;30. She does not need a ton of lead up time, she already has all the endurance and speed she needs, just need some long runs to get her legs ready. 11 weeks is plenty of time if she is serious about it.

SHe has a little faster PR 10k than I did and I was able to run 2;36 in 8 weeks of running, backed up with tri training as a base for endurance. And although we have run similar times, she is a much better oure runner than I ever was, so I would expect that she do better as the distance gets longer.

Island House tri -http://www.islandhousetriathlon.com/ - is this weekend. Assuming Jorgensen goes as fast as needed this weekend to take home as large a paycheck as possible, how much does that affect her NYC time a week later assuming she attempts to run as fast as possible in her marathon debut? Five minutes slower than if she hadn't raced Island House? More? Less?

Really the only real pressure are the 4 5K races over the 3 days. I think she should be able to handle that pretty well, kind of a last bit of speed with some endurance mixed in. Then a week to recover and she should be fine, not losing anything really. Honestly the travel will be the only real drain on her, and she is at least in the same time zone.

Does anyone know if they show the island house race live online anywhere? I love this format, only got to do a couple in my entire career. Maybe one day they will add a legends 60+ category! I would come out of retirement for that one, look out Dave and Tinley!

They were showing sections of the race on Periscope last year and they've mentioned that they will do the same this year.

I don't see how Island House won't take something out of her for the marathon, but I was never an elite triathlete or marathoner... How many elite marathoners experience that kind of racing load a week before a marathon where they hope to perform to their potential?

How many elite marathoners experience that kind of racing load a week before a marathon where they hope to perform to their potential? //

Good question, but the wrong one. She is not an elite marathoner, but triathlete. And to answer that question it is easy, they recover well in a week from short course racing, some even do well doing 1/2 ironman's a week prior. She will be fine, just stay healthy and do your normal recovery week when you do back to back weekends. And I think elite marathoners would be fine too doing some 5k's the week before. Look at the folks that do the double in the olympics, either 5k/10k or 10k/marathon. That is way more intense that doing some fun race weekend, then followed up by another low pressure fun long run. Quite possible this whole entry to the race would be better than a 6 month focus.


I'm still saying 2;31 +/- 2 minutes..

this whole thing is going to be great for triathlon, because i suspect she's going to be with the lead group (the group, not counting anybody who takes an ill-advised flier) through anywhere from 10 to 13 miles. the optics are going to be special: this giant, goliath of a woman (relative to the rest of those in the group) who doesn't belong, doesn't fit, wrong body, wrong sport, yet there she is. (which has always been what triathlon is all about.)

she is smart enough to know when to fall off that pack, then pick off a few in the last 4 miles. it's going to be a very jared ward run for her.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Oh I hope she rocks a Jared Ward mustache, then she would really stand out. Also great support for men's health.

Very good points. Still think Island House a week out could have an effect time wise, but totally understand doing it for the $ and the fun. It will be fun to watch the next two weekends. Just wish they could have lured Spirig to the House.

At least they tried. I'm interested to see how Flora Duffy does. She looked to be in great form winning the Xterra WC this weekend and certainly showed good form at the ITU Grand Finale in Cozumel. It ought to be exciting both on the men's and women's side. With a pure TT the first day plus the non draft formats the next two days the winning will be without doubt well deserved.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I'm with Monty that her racing Island House has almost no impact on NYC. There is going to be no one close to her on the runs at Island house so it's not like she has to do them at full throttle like she's in an Olympic 5000m, racing at the edge till the 4900m mark and then opening up the fastest kick you can muster. The recovery from that is a different beast. I bet she does just fine along the lines of what Slowman is saying. Hopefully closer to 2:32 than 2:39

Don't forget about the swim and bike that happen before the run. I suspect Flora Duffy may put some decent time on Gwen before the run that will require her to put the hammer down. Don't forget about how things went at Cozumel.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Excellent point. Hopefully she does not need to go deep during the runs at Island house.

Me thinks if she wants to win, there may be some really hard running happening over the next couple of days. I'm not sure what the NYC pay day will look like but I know this one could be pretty sweet.


Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I think she will be fine, this tt format is the worst for her as far as times go. In the tri she gets to draft the swim and pace the bike, so should have a much easier run to claw back that time. It really is her's to lose now with this first day out of the way, limited her loses to under a minute. Piece of cake, that is just 1 of the 5k's that are left to do.

Monty,

You seem to be forgetting about the time she will lose on the swim and bike the next two days. Not sure about how they're starting the enduro tomorrow but if they do things like last year Sunday they will go off by their time differentials so perhaps no draft at all there. Both tomorrow and Sunday are non-draft this year so not too much help there either.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Hugh, I think you are right. She's going to need to give it everything to win this weekends and I think she will give the full effort and that's going to hurt next weekend, but it's going to be more important to her to beat her peers who she is "supposed to beat" vs do well in an open marathon where she will be beaten by a lot. At NYC, I think she ends up doing what Slowman posted a bit further up on this thread and given this weekend, that seems like the best thing to do.

You seem to be forgetting about the time she will lose on the swim and bike the next two days. Not sure about how they're starting the enduro tomorrow but if they do things like last year Sunday they will go off by their time differentials so perhaps no draft at all there.//

I forgot the triathlon is set off by time. But the road and OW swimming should help here from the pool swim. But yes, she will have to work pretty hard on the 5k's to make up the gaps, the only sandbagging will be on the last one if and when she takes the lead.

What pool swim are you referring to? Last year Gwen was in the lead after the day one prologue. Not so this year by a good bit. Flora is a better swimmer, cyclist and runner this year than she was last year as we witnessed at Cozumel. Holly Lawrence is swimming and cycling very well. For Gwen to win the event this year she needs to show she can run way better than the other gals with tired legs. She may well do so and I'd cheer for her as much as anyone but I don't think a win for her is a done deal by any stretch.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Article today in the WSJ - http://www.wsj.com/...riathlons-1478014025. You should be able to access from Jorgensen twitter feed if not WSJ subscriber.

i can't read it. not a subscriber.

having island house in her legs is going to be a really good thing, or a really bad thing. not going to know until the race. you never know about stuff like that. sometimes it works out well. on paper, 3 days of racing in a row a week before a marathon, you wouldn't put that on your schedule. however, sometimes it just works.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

You should be able to access article from Jorgensen twitter feed if interested.

I am going to give her 2:39, just so that if I am right I can gloat.

I think she will blow up and go 2:45......not enough race pace mileage.

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"I would definitely smell her seat after a century ride"

How can she possibly go that slow? Even if she opens with a 1:15 first half, 2:45 would mean a 1:30 second half blow up. I can't see her going any slower than 2:39.59 if she just goes at her jogging pace. The only way she goes 2:45 is if there is walking/cramping breaks. I suppose that is always possible.

I'm just trolling....she will probably stun us all and go sub 2:35! I hope she crushes it and takes down some East African's in the process.

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"I would definitely smell her seat after a century ride"

I know you said you are trolling, but I had this same thought. Lack of long runs can bite you bad around mile 20. But looking at previous results, there were quite a few women who are not top marathoners running under 2:45, so I figure if they can do it, Gwen should be ok.

I'm predicting 2:34-2:35. She has the right frame and beautiful running form, but the lack of long runs and total base miles will not help once she gets to that last 10k.

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

Slowman wrote:

i can't read it. not a subscriber.

Via Google News click-through:

my over/under for this is 2:29-flat. i don't base this on her triathlon times, but on her open run times. if you look at her 10k times in open (run only) races, and her recent 10-miler, it projects out to that time.

the wild card is the island house races last weekend, whether that'll affect her negatively. maybe so, maybe not. i like that she only won the overall by 18sec. but then it's not going to be easy to beat flora duffy, i don't care how carefully you slice it. but then duffy herself had xterra worlds in her the week before. but then, they each beat lawrence, true, salthouse, frederiksen by loads, which means they each stuck good performances out there.

sometimes a race a week in front is a good thing. better than a race 2 weeks in front, or 3 weeks. it's just weird how that works. no good rationale for that, but that's the way it goes.

what i'm glad about is that 2:29 runners are going to run in the front pack. you're close enough to 2:25 runners in overall time to get more from sucking into the front pack than from laying off it by 5sec/mile. that's going to make it a fun race to watch for a lot of miles, unless she just really has a bad day from the gun (which i don't expect, becaus she doesn't have very many bad days).

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

While I root for such a fast outcome, I think you are overly optimistic. And, the far bigger wild card than last weekends racing is her lack of marathon specific training and any runs nearing 2 hours. Fact is, intense swimming and biking does not replicate what the legs feel like at mile 20.

My guess is she runs 5:45 pace through 20 and then fades to a 2:36-2:38 finish. While I'd like to see her mingling in the front pack through 16, I don't see her doing this unless the front pack plays it slow and conservative. She knows she isn't going to run 2:22 - 2:25 so won't play in the front group unless the front group happens to be running her pace.

Trying to stick to the front pack would be a suicide mission. I'm sure Gwen and Jamie Turner are smarter than that.

Anne Haug posted a 2:36:13 in Frankfurt last weekend.
Should be interesting to see what Gwen can do.

It looks like Anne's last race or WTC event was at Rio, where she finished 36th. If she switched to marathon training right after that her time is pretty solid. If she only semi-trained for the marathon, that time is damn impressive. Gwen is definitely a better runner in tris than Anne, but the training and long runs are soooo needed in an open marathon if you are trying to race to full potential.

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

While it's a very impressive time, Frankfurt is also very fast. Much faster than NYC

WOW!!! Do you really think that Dan, or just saying that other people might think that?

She is clearly one of the best athletes ever, but I would bet my life savings on the over (so a few dog treats and an "I'm With Her" bumper sticker). If she runs a 2:29 without marathon mileage in her legs, I think it would be among the best marathons ever run.

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

I'm super skeptical of these sub 2:40 times as well. I recall a video of a Chinese female runner who was one of the fastest half marathoners in the world, jumping into the marathon, and literally staggering at a bare walk in the final mile to a 2:41 or something like that after leading the first half by a huge margin. And I'm sure that Chinese female was running well over 100mpw.

Can't rule anything out with Gwen, but I'll bet it'll be a lot slower than her times based on her super fast 10k races.

I'm thinking 2:50 based on lack of experience and her running in unknown territory. Genetics can only get you so far.

I think the only way she can go 2:29 is to go with the front pack and hold on as long as she can. The big question is whether Gwen will have the confidence to think she belongs with the front pack. If she goes with them she might survive to a 2:29-2:32 type time. However, it is more likely she blows up between 18 and 22 and then just jogs it in.

If she goes out a little slower, she likely won't run low 2:30s, but might get sub 2:40.

I think she will run well.
She is used to run on tired legs and she is used to competitions lasting close to 2h.
She is not jumping from 10,000 to marathon.

Also I think we can look at Grete Waitz and her first marathon as a comparison.
No marathon training there either.

No matter what result Gwen gets I think she is bad ass running a marathon on a big stage :-)

Well she went with the lead pack in her recent 10 miler, so no leap to think she will run with a group going much slower. I think like most marathoners she runs with the early easy pace, and at some point you know when it is you time to drift off. Some wait too long and they either don't finish, or limp in. But in both mens and Womens races this is the standard, see how well you are going and at about 16 miles you body lets you know. She seems to know herself well, has great endurance, and a competitive nature, so I expect she will give it a good go this weekend.

I said it a long time ago and I'm sticking with my over/under at 2;31 +/- 2 minutes. So my best case scenario for her is dan's over under. I don't believe for one minute she needs a bunch of 20 mile runs on her legs to be successful at this time frame. I do believe if she were to become a full time marathon runner, that she would be low 2;20's, or even sub. Not in a season or even two, but that is where I believe her talent lies with hard focused work. But of course she is already a world and olympic champion in another sport, so probably never going to see that side. But based on my belief of that potential, that is where I come up with my predicted times. They are reasonable for her at this stage and amount of training she has been able to do.

It is pretty much what I did personally a very long time ago at 38, and she is certainly a more talented runner than I was. I never cracked 48 MPW in my lead up, or for that matter ever in my career.This is also what drives my prediction for her, and what other women with lesser run cred have run marathons in too..

"WOW!!! Do you really think that Dan, or just saying that other people might think that?"

she ran 53:13 at the 10mi natl champs. that equates to 2:29-flat. her 10k races are right in that same range.

as to your phrase, "without marathon mileage in her legs," what is marathon mileage? one thing i've noted about triathletes is that they do WORSE when you ask them to do "marathon mileage" for their marathons. i suspect if gwen really wanted to run her fastest possible marathon it would be off 70-mile weeks, not 140-mile weeks.

that said, i don't know what kind of mileage she's been running. what i do know is that many more triathletes fail because they have too many big workouts rather than too few. take a 53min 10-miler, add a few 70mi weeks, she's ready to run 2:30 or lower. or to try.

but if she's a low-mileage runner, and is running a marathon off 35- or 40-mile weeks, well, that's another thing. but if that's it, if that's her mileage, it doesn't matter whether she's running sixes or 5:45s she's going to be legsore after 22 miles.

as to the pace, which is what i was referring to, she's going to be jacked at this race. she'll have to put the brakes on big time to ONLY run 5:40/mi. she should run 5:40s, maybe 5:45s. that's her pace. the field is going to go out in 5:30 to 5:35, i'm guessing, and going to remain there for 18 miles. i think it's going to be very hard to run 5:40 if the pace is 5:35. what i'm hoping is that the pace of the front pack is slow, between 5:35 and 5:40, and then it picks up somewhere between 13 and 18 miles and gwen simply lets those folks go when they accelerate, and runs her 5:40s.

if she decides to run 5:45s from the start then she's going to be gone from the front pack by mile-1. i just think it's going to be very hard to let that front pack go, if running 5:45 feels to her like she's walking.

you can be certain i'm going to be glued to the TV to watch that.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Exactly what I was thinking...NYC is a tough course and there's supposed to be a bit of a head wind. I'd bet the over on Dan's line...my guess is a finish in the 2:43 neighborhood.

Lots of haters here. She's definitely going under 2:30.

Wow, that's quite a testimonial. Looks like sub 2:20 would put her as one of the 20 fastest women ever. I don't know that much about how much she makes now and how much comparable elite marathoners make, if that were the case could she make more money as a runner?

So you think Gwen could be the best American marathoner of all time? Because that's what you're saying with this statement. The American record is 2:19:36. Laughable.

"I'd bet the over on Dan's line...my guess is a finish in the 2:43 neighborhood."

my ex ran the L.A. marathon, very overtrained and overraced, and struggled to a 2:45. the puntous twins were in the same race and ran around the same time, maybe faster. i believe erin baker ran 2:36, maybe 2:34, in the pittsburg marathon.

my ex ran 2:47 at big sur marathon after having to end her triathlon career after having half her large intestine cut out. plenty of triathlete women have run between 2:35 and 2:45 in standalone marathons; both ironman racers and olympic distance racers. i'm thinking jacquie gallagher ran around 2:40 or under, did she not?

gwen is far, far better as a runner than any triathlete ever. better than carol montgomery. better than joy and joan hanson.

there is no way in... the... world gwen runs 2:43 unless she runs it backwards, or unless she hits an absolute wall and has to walk a lot of the last 4 miles. which may happen! but that's what it would take.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

"you think Gwen could be the best American marathoner of all time?"

i felt, a year ago, she was already a 1:09-plus half-marathoner. i don't know if she would ever be a 2:20 marathoner, but i feel about her like i felt about lukas verzbicas, that it's a close call whether triathlon or pure running is that athlete's better sport.

the only reason triathlon is gwen's best sport is because triathlon is not as developed as running is. we don't have a bunch of ethiopian women on youth swim teams. we have a worldwide access problem for women, and that allows gwen to dominate in triathlon. if we didn't have that access problem gwen would have more competition.

gwen would still be a great triathlete, even if there was access to swim/bike/run worldwide. she's that good. but she's also a great, great runner. she is right now, in my view, one of the top 5 or 6 U.S. half-marathoners. molly huddle, shalane flanagan, a few others, that's it. and that's off of triathlon training.

the question is what happens if she ever decides to go run-only. is she benjamin parades? who goes from very good but not great duathlete to a 2:10 marathoner? impossible to know.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Do you think Asics gives her any financial incentive to plop her tall frame and Asics logo at the front of the race? To do like the breakaways on a Tour de France sprint stage and just get the sponsors out there in front of the camera for as long as possible? I'm not saying Gwen would, or would be asked to, completely sacrifice her race in order to run at the front as long as possible no matter the pace, but if the leaders go out slow and her pace is near it, to get to the front of that group and be prominent?

I believe she can go 2:32 for sure. At least. 2:40 is just possible if she has a very bad day or goes out way too fast.

I think people are overexaggerating the importance of heavy milage. A friend of mine run 2:45 recently after not a lot of training miles and on a similar course and his 10 k time is slower for sure.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

i doubt it. i do know that asics' involvement as the NYC marathon sponsor is a big reason for her to do this race. i think asics would LOVE to have gwen's tall frame towering over all the other women, and i would also love it. i just love the optics of this race, if that's what in fact happens.

but i doubt asics is asking gwen to go out there and bury herself for TV time, or waiving benjamins in front of her to do so.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

I'm definitely not a hater...I'm a huge Gwen fan and I hope she beats my guess by 20 minutes! She's had an incredible year, to say the least, and I just think that by November, her body & mind might be ready for a well-earned break. I'll be cheering her on big time and I'm hoping that she'll be at the expo doing some publicity for Asics so that I might get the chance to congratulate her in person for her accomplishments and to wish her luck on Sunday.

Just to put it into context, Joan Benoit ran 2:24.52 at the LA Olympics and ran 2:22.xx in Boston in 1983. Joan was also 5'2" and 100 lbs. So I totally agree with you that Dan is over optimistic, but I do feel that even without long runs she can go way below 2:35. I think the sheer volume of her run racing for the past several years at paces much faster than her marathon pace is going to be waaaay more helpful than most here are realizing more so than an open 5000m or 10000m runner moving to marathon because she has the additional benefit for the aerobic cross training in terms of overall hours (and I agree that 2 hours of triathloning is not the same as the first 22 miles of marathon, but it's worth a bit given that she also runs and runs hard often). I just hope she gives it a solid go which expect her to only because she is a competitor at heart and won't want to sandbag....the fastest EVER open marathon time by a pro triathlete is easily in her grasp (see earlier in this thread on the times other women through the ages have posted).

The part of your post in bold, there is no way she falls off the front pack instantly. The fastest front pack pace will still feel like a jog to her for at least a mile. Then it depends on what pace they choose. It is NYC and invariably a tactical race with all the hills and then the closing quad killing loop in Central park. I just can't see the front pack taking off on a suicide mission. Gwen will then have to decide if she sticks at this "too fast jogging pace" or dial back to an even slower "jogging pace" (for her)....which is probably her optimal marathon pace. She's literally be the first competitive athlete in history that let's everyone go and sits on her "power number" to even pace. It's almost impossible to do just because it feels so stupidly easy to go "too fast" for an athlete of this caliber. Keep in mind that her entire ITU racing psychology is about staying with the leaders from the swim start to the finish and then gapping them. She's literally going to have to apply the inverse strategy (equivalent of sitting on a power number) for the most optimal even pace marathon time. Do any of us really believe she's going to do that and NOT draft off the front pack?

I totally agree, but there is a massive difference between 2:29:00 and 2:35, especially in NYC. I am saying 2:29 would be one of the best performances ever because it would indicate potential for being one of the best in the world. And she is undeniably incredible, but the women who are the best in the world are 14:mid 5k'ers who train for marathons.

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

I agree there is a world of diff between 2:29 and 2:35. That's 6 minutes say over the last 12 miles so 30 seconds per mile, which breaks down to 2 seconds slower (approx) over 100m. It's not even in the same zip code. To run 2:29, she needs to run 1:14.xx first half. This is totally doable whatever happens in the second half for her. The question is whether she slows down by 30 seconds per mile, 20 seconds per mile, 15, 10 or 5....or if she cramps up and has to take walking breaks (then you instantly blow your "slow down budget"). I don't think she slows down by 30 second per mile short of cramps/walking (even without long runs). Initially it is 2 second per mile, then 5, then 10....then it's just managing the slowdown. She should be pretty good at managing that. She's a lot lighter than Stadler and Monty who ran decent marathons off tri training and were similar speed runners, so I think her slowdown slowdown is just inherently going to be a lot less. There is a reason why elite marathoners (both men and women are so tiny....the smaller you the the less you inherently slow down at the marathon distance....different from a marathon in an IM though....some bigger lean athletes do fast IM marathons because the pace is relatively so much slower...less pounding....less heat buildup....less wind resistance from a tall body being upright)

bear in mind she's 32:12 and 32:15, something like that, in the ONLY 2 races she's done over that distance in the last 2 years (she does that one race every year). this is off of tri training only, early season, pre-season. had she actually trained for and regularly raced 5k races, even off of only tri training, i suspect she'd be under 32 minutes and i'm sure you do too.

nobody thinks gwen is going to win the NYC marathon. but 8th place was the 1st american last year, laura thweatt. america's XC natl champ. who has a 10k PR of 31:56. whose half-mary PR is 1:11 and change. do i think gwen can run with laura thweatt at NYC? you bet i do. if laura thweatt runs again and i'm gwen i stick right to that lady's thigh.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

I hope I am wrong! And 2:33 or 2:36 would be extremely impressive all the same.

I just think we are downplaying how incredible 2:29 flat is for a woman. On the IAAF performance tables, it's equivalent to a man running 2:11. I don't think Brownlee would get close to that, especially on a course like NYC.

P.S. I don't know the history of triathlon well, so maybe there is precedent for a triathlete running that fast. But I'd be shocked if anyone ever ran 2:11 or 2:29 without somewhat specific training or absurd PRs at shorter distances (sub-13 5k for men or sub 14:40 for women). Will be super cool to watch! I have a male athlete in the pro race so I'll be a nervous wreck.

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

let me put this another way.

the front pack ran 5:34 pace for 13 miles last year. 8 in that pack. they continued on that same pace for 30k. with 7.6mi to go 5:34 is the pace they were on. still 8 in that pack.

then the eventual winner ran away and hid. she ran 5:20 pace for the last 12k.

laura thweatt was in that front pack. she finished in 7th place in that race, she has a 31:35 track PR, 31:59 road PR.

4th place at NYC last year, 31:16 PR but that was 4 years ago and she's been getting slower. 32:06 last year at the WC on the track. but 1:10:19 this year and euro champ at that distance, so still can get after it obviously.

it's sexy to run with that group. you've got 8 people who're better than her in that group, but 4th through 8th are not a LOT better than her. if it was 5:30 pace for the whole way i'd say no, don't do it.

but if it's 5:35 pace, maybe even slower, for the first 18 miles, and then 5:20 pace for the last 7 or 8 miles i say why not take the tow and be at the sexy end of the race until the top runners decide it's game on?

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

"On the IAAF performance tables, it's equivalent to a man running 2:11. I don't think Brownlee would get close to that, especially on a course like NYC."

fair point. but alistair ran one and only10k, just for grins, and it was on the track so no fudging there. he ran 28:30ish and that calcs out to 2:13-high, doesn't it? and gwen's better, gender graded, than alistair is (in my opinion).

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Great points! Thank you!

The problem is that running paces predicted by 10k PRs usually only works with sustained high mileage to support it, especially for elites that require major metabolic efficiency in races over half marathon. My guess is she does not go out in the lead pack because she understands that (I haven't read everything on this, so super sorry if I am already wrong).

The danger in going out in the lead pack is a last 10 miles that is extremely rough. Lauren Fleshman is a great example of someone with better PRs (including sub-15 5k) going for it and finishing around 2:37.

P.S. A joyously easy (for her) 2:36 negative split is my guess :)

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

For sure! I just don't think a fast 10k from a triathlete will ever be close to predicting their marathon time without a big marathon block to support it (and possibly 2 or 3 marathon blocks).

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

i hear you. i just don't know what her mileage has been.

just, more food for thought from IAAF tables:

32:12 => 2:28:29
53:13 => 2:29:48

she's consistent!

she SAYS she's looking for something in the low to high 2:30s. that conforms to your counsel, and it's funner to pass people in the last 6 miles than to get passed.

but i keep coming back to jared ward, who i think split the difference: out with the lead pack, let himself get dropped early, at the very first sign of stress, and lived to pick up the pieces.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

It's looking to be windy, and not in a good way - although that could mean the early pace will be moderate. Goucher couldn't hang with the lead pack in 2014 and it got ugly for her. If the winds are up (and coming out of the NNW as predicted), she just needs to stay with the group through the Bronx. Easier said than done. I bet the race will get pretty surgey up 1st Ave as the top runners try to break up the pack.

Would be cool if she could break 2:30, but I could see her fading a bit late and coming away saying, "man that was tough!"

I'm with Dan. I have no idea how fast she might or might not go, but I remember middle distance runner Rod Dixon winning in his marathon debut in New York. Some of you young guys might want to google him.

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Kevin

http://kevinmetcalfe.dreamhosters.com
My Strava

I love your posts! And agree for the most part. But this trendline is already scary (the 10 Miler was an amazing race too). If we apply a similar linear regression through the marathon, that'd be 2:35 (and NYC is an unfavorable course even with good wind).

32:12 => 2:28:29
53:13 => 2:29:48

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

So you think Gwen could be the best American marathoner of all time? Because that's what you're saying with this statement. The American record is 2:19:36. Laughable.

What I'm saying is that she could be one of the best American marathon runners we have ever seen. Not sure why you think that is funny, she has now shown that she is the greatest ever(world) triathlete to have lived on the planet(2 hour+ category), and the best running one too. I love how you guys just dismiss that little detail about Gwen, like she was some club runner having a go at the marathon. She has world class physiology, a drive that wins a gold medal, and she is the greatest 2 hour+ triathlete ever. As you have seen on this thread, lesser women as triathletes and runners have run mid 2;30's, several of them. She is in another league from the best of those.


It is just my opinion and I figure if she does run what I think she can on just mainly triathlon training and low mileage, I will feel good about believing she could go a whole lot faster if she had a mind to and trained more like a full time distance runner.


What do you think she will run this weekend?

Mid to low 2:30s. I'll go 2:33 and that would be a spectacular time given the lack of specific training.

Gwen was a very good college runner, but not in the same stratosphere as the likes of Goucher, Flanagan, or Amy Hastings. There are some late bloomers like Des Linden that come on later, but most of the truly elite in the US were NCAA champions. I think you're highly underrating how amazing these women are.

Being the best triathlete and the best pure runner are completely different animals. It's like saying Lionel Sanders could be a team leader in the World Tour because he's a great triathlon cyclist.

It's like saying Lionel Sanders could be a team leader in the World Tour because he's a great triathlon cyclist. //

No kidding, or I got an even better one. How about some swimmer kid who does triathlon a few years and then goes on to beat all the best pro cyclists in the world in a couple years of riding, now that would be a funny one....

To that latter claim:
Compared to current American records (51:44 Molly Huddle at Twin Cities 10 Miler 2015 and Galen Rupp's 26:44 at 2014 Pre Classic), Gwen's 10 mile road time is 102.8% of the record while Brownlee's 10K track time is 106.7% of Rupp's. A necessary caveat is that world level track 10Ks are frequent while world level road 10 milers are not, so you can assume the benchmark Brownlee is compared against (Rupp) is a bit more impressive than Gwen's (Huddle).

Gwen is doing what Gwen is doing now and there is no debating it. But the fact of the matter is that she was a good collegiate runner but showed no indication of potential that would put her in "America's best ever marathoner" conversations. So either she dramatically underperformed in college or triathlon training has tapped into running talent not seen as a collegiate level elite, which I would say is unusual.

or triathlon training has tapped into running talent not seen as a collegiate level elite, which I would say is unusual..

Ok, if it were common everyone would be doing it. How unusual is it to win a triathlon gold medal? How about for an American? How unusual is that group? Look, she is obviously a much better runner than she was in college, I don't know why that is, could be lots of reasonable reasons. But it is undeniable that she is "now" one of the top lets say 10 to 15(probably higher, but lets be conservative) American runners, and all on triathlon training. I just hope that she can translate her 31 high 10k speed, or her recent 10 miler, to the marathon distance. First one out the gate can go either way, and hopefully last weekend did not wreck her chances. We will all know soon!!!

That wasn't Ward's first marathon. Didn't he write his masters thesis on marathon pacing? How many experienced elite marathoners pull off that type of pacing regularly? I'd be very impressed if Jorgensen could pull a Ward on Sunday in her debut.

I like Dave's prediction. I'd like to see Jorgensen finish with a smile on her face running strong at the end.

Look, she is obviously a much better runner than she was in college, I don't know why that is, could be lots of reasonable reasons

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She says (along with her coach) it's because she is much stronger than she was in college. 10 pounds of muscle she has put on since college. Likely means she's more healthier and been able to reach full potential much more.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

if the lead pack takes off after getting off the bridge, ward is not going with them. he's not capable of banging out a bunch fo 4:50 or faster early miles and surviving. he probably wants the lead pack to take off and cause carnage with a lot of the sub 2:08 guys so he can pick them off in the last 10k with a smart even pacing strategy.

Can you get slowman to put up a poll:

How long does Gwen run with the lead pack at NYC marathon

0 miles
1-2 miles
2-5 miles
5-8 miles
8-13 miles


Dev

I'm sorry, but never before has an elite, world class runner claimed that gaining 10 pounds helped them. Also, she is so lean that I find it unfathomable that she has gained 10 pounds. I look at pictures of her running at Wisconsin and she is lean then, too, but no more so than today.

In all likelihood she is faster now because she is a full-time professional athlete wholly dedicated to the cause, which was not the case in college.

Still, it's unprecedented, to go from a good but not extraordinary collegiate level runner to head and shoulders superior at running to all others in triathlon. It's like a good college swimmer, the dime a dozen every year who could qualify for NCAAs but not for Olympic Trials, heading over to triathlon and becoming the best swimmer in the sport by a large margin. It's unprecedented.

I'd suggest the poll ask "How long do you think Gwen should run with the lead pack assuming the pace is similar to the 1:12:56 halfway split from last year"

I can't predict what she will do, but I can be a keyboard coach and answer a question about what I think she should do. ;)

I think you are missing why the 10 pounds is important. It's not for running purposes but to handle the demands of swimming biking and running.

Thus relates to your final point of being able to train properly and injury free.

That's far far more important than being lean.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I understand what you're saying but I don't buy it. So adding 10 pounds has helped her remain injury free and "train properly"? Was she "slow" in college because she was frequently injured? "Proper training" has a high bar to overcome in order to offset the 10 extra pounds of weight to carry.

Anyway, I don't believe for a second she has gained 10 pounds.

"I'm sorry, but never before has an elite, world class runner claimed that gaining 10 pounds helped them."


I see (and respect!) your point, but I disagree strongly based on coaching lots of elite female runners. Lean female athletes often improve by a ton by putting on weight, likely because it coincides with fueling that lets them recover and stay healthy. This article I wrote kinda gets to the heart of the issue:


http://www.trailrunnermag.com/health/daily-nutrition/2097-the-nutrition-secret-of-the-pros


"The dinner table is a great way to tell how long a runner’s career will be. The eaters last. The skimpers may be fast, but probably not for long."

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

You can believe whatever the hell you want to. I'll take her and her coach's word that she has gained weight over yours that is based on photos.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Everyone always thinks for running it's the skinnier the better. Well, thats not true. I myself once was way too light to run to my potential. I was underfueled, didn't recover, struggled to train because of not existing energy and so on. After gaining more than 10 pounds I'm running better than ever.

Yeah some Kenyans are bulit like sticks but for westernerd being a bit heavier is often the way to go. Look at Chris Solinsky or Andy Vernon. If they could race better on lesser punds I'm sure they would do it. These guys are extreme examples. But even Galen Rupp, despite being lean, is no walking skeleton

Gwen is probably already at her best running weight. If she was a running specialist I don't think she could be much lighter.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

I think there's something to be said about NOT running 70+ MPW. But still having a HUGE engine because your biking and running and strength training another 15 hours a week. Can she run here marathon potential. No. She would need a lot more mileage and have to assume a lot more risk. But I think she'll run extremely well.

I suspect she'll go out with the pack if it goes out conservative (tactical) and just enjoy herself. Then as there are surges, allow herself to drop back. Find a comfortable low tempo pace, then put what she has left into it. I'm not sure what those paces are exactly. IF she had does a 70.3 previously, we'd have a good data point for her marathonish pace. She's a little tall, so a open marathon wouldn't necessarily suit her well. She's not optimized for it. I would be a little surprised if she doesn't run under 2:40.

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TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

I agree with this. She is lean, lean, lean. I'm a bit flabbergasted to hear her say she's put on 10 pounds, because I don't see how that could be.

I suspect we'll see a solid, but somewhat anti-climactic 2:36-2:37 this weekend. We won't see much or any of her because she'll pace for a 2:32ish and not be part of the televised lead group. And she'll fade in the final 10K but not fall apart, ending in a very solid 2:36:41.

So, take that. No point in even watching now.

You mean like Brownlee dropping 4 minutes off his 10k time in two years. That sort of unprecedented improvement?

I agree. Does anyone have a before and after pic of those 10 pounds?

 

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

your unprecedented comment is a little off. first, she was a lot better than good -- she was an all-american and ran 15:52 (15:55 indoors, which is empirically faster) -- and clearly wasn't fully focused on running (she was busy swimming for much of her collegiate life). how much faster do you think she would have run had she spent 5 years running xc, winter and spring track like almost every other top collegiate runner? sub 15:30?

second, how many sub 16 minute 5k collegiate runners, who also participated in another sport in college, have transitioned over to itu racing? that background is completely unprecedented. how many collegiate sub 16 5k women who were fully focused on running have moved over to itu racing? summer cook probably is the 2nd fastest american runner in itu and her prs were 16:17 and 35:27. she also has made an enormous improvement in her running after training full-time for triathlons.

To put that in perspective the Olympic A standard for 5k was 15:24 this year. You could get in to the US trials final with a 15:43.

..

You're missing the point. The genesis of this aspect of this thread (vs time predictions, will she run at the front, ....) was Monty saying that she has the potential to go sub-2:20, to which the response was "what? you think she can be America's greatest ever marathoner? Based on what? Her open running times, her 32 minute 10K, 53 minute 10 miler, her collegiate record, her being the best runner in triathlons? Clearly she's incredible, but the best marathoner America has ever produced? Really?"

She was excellent in college. But there are 25 like her every year at that level of excellence. She didn't even make US Olympic Trials. She graduated from college and moved to a desk job. USATF was not out hunting her down to pursue her talent. She was excellent but unremarkable. She clearly became remarkable. It still stretches imagination to suggest she could be America's greatest ever marathoner. If she had that talent one would expect to have seen a bit more out of her in college. Nonetheless, maybe she could be someday. She has the same build as a certain marathon world record holder from Britain. And of a certain former world record holder before her from Norway....

I think the biggest factor is that Gwen only ran for 2 years in college. I think it is silly to think that after 2 years she would have reached her potential in running. Now after being a full time professional athlete for 5 years, it is not outrageous to think she is closer to her running potential.

sub 2:20 is getting out there on the tippy end (especially considering how many of the sub 2:20 women were doped). there are a lot of super talented women who never went sub 2:20. even shalane, who is every bit as talented as gwen (probably more so) as a runner and who has been a full-time professional runner her entire post collegiate life "only" has gone 2:21. my point was that i think you (and others) are misguided labeling her as an ok (or whatever less than exceptional adjective you want to use) collegiate runner solely based on the fact that she "only" ran 15:52. that clearly wasn't anything close to what her potential was in college as it wasn't her focus. in any event, 15:52 IS fast for someone switching over to itu. who was faster in college?

Of course it is. And probably no one. And that plus the fact that she also swam is why USAT came knocking on her door and USATF did not.

She's a great triathlon runner. The best ever. So good that you've now got people talking that she could be just as great a stand-alone runner, which is a bit overexuberant in my opinion. And, frankly, I was really damn impressed with her 53:19 and beating Sara Hall at the 10 miler national champs.

Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes?

shivermetimbers wrote:

I think she will blow up and go 2:45......not enough race pace mileage.

Maybe that's what happened to Nicola Spirig in 2014 in Zürich. From the pre-race pro write-up:Sounds like a "Beat 2:31:25." Go Gwen! :)