This is Quintana race. AC will have a bad day(s) because of the Giro and no TT for Froome to make up lost time.

/thread

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Hmm, not sure the tour de France can live up to that, I honestly think the Giro is the best of the big 3.

The Giro was truly awesome. Like the Vuelta have been the last couple of times.

IMO the Tour is only #1 due to its history. Both the Vuelta and Giro have catched up and surpassed the Tour in terms of route and entertainment.

Cheering for Bertie, but think the Giro has been too hard on his body to be able to out perform Froomie og Quintana. Might be competitive in the beginning though. But 3 more weeks is a tough asking.

History and TV coverage, free to air TV in Australia has only had the Giro for the past two years.

I think the route in the Giro has been epic and for that reason i agree that the double will be hard. My money would be on Quintana, I don't think Alberto will be able to hold his form late in the race due to the beating his body has taken in the giro.

Hard to disagree with much/any of that.

Froome - Time will tell how well he will climb, he could still recreate the performance that we saw from him in 2013. If he can accelerate and spin like he did on Ventoux that year then he's got a great chance, although the lack of any real time trialing will make it harder for him.

Contador - I struggle to count him out when he's healthy, regardless of fatigue in his legs. I'd sort of like to see him win it and even push through for the Vuelta, just for the history that it would create.

Quintana - The course plays to his strengths and he's been brilliant in grand tours of late. I'm convinced he would have held on for the Giro/Vuelta double last year were it not for that crash. He's maturing year on year, is probably the favourite overall.

Nibali - I don't think he'll podium. Personally I'd love to see him crack, I don't think Astana should even be racing.

Other predictions - Panzerwagen in Yellow until stage 3.
Green jersey is more unpredictable this year due to redistribution of points away from intermediate sprints, so it doesn't play to Sagan's strengths as much any more - his unbroken success despite not winning a stage last year is probably the reason that they changed it. Degenkolb is my favourite for it, but I'm not counting Cav out. Kittel is an unknown at the minute due to bad form in the spring.

What about Kristoff? :) I have him in green unless CAV goes ballistic winning 5-6 stages like in the HTC-days.

I totally forgot about Kristoff.
Yeah he's gunna be right up there.

much as I don't like the team either, why the hate on Nibali? He has been squeaky clean throughout his career. not even a hint of a doping scandal unlike contador, froome, or many other GC riders. has had a solid, steady progression and consistent performances. Rides agressively, with balls of steel ( stage 5 of the tour last year, anyone?) and is always entertaining to watch, especially when he uncorks some of those impressive descending skills he has. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Fuglsang is another likeable rider.


As for the chances, I think it will depend alot on the team each of the contenders bring as well.

Tinkoff saxo- will have a strong lineup with rafal majka, anker sorenson, and jesus hernanzdez, kiserlovski, Zaugg as well. Rogers/basso, maybe, it depends on whether they recovers in time. Maciej bodnar for the flats and leadouts. Jay Mccarthy? Sagan will definitely be there to hunt stage wins, but can pull his own weight as backup for contador as well. The problem ies in how they are going to balance ambitions for yellow with contador and green with sagan.
Sky- Mikel Nieve, Nicolas roche will be there for the climbs. proably wout peols and sergio henao as well. Geraint thomas, pete kennaugh to motor the flats. if richie porte recovers in time, also will be a solid backup plan.
Movistar- capecchi, Moreno, Anacona,Gadret, Valverde, sutherland, dowsett, - some solid climbers but generally a team of good all rounders.
astana- fuglsang and lars boom, definitely. Vanotti, Agnoli and westra are probables. grivko and ccpzic as well.

the weakest teams I see, really, are tinkoff saxo ( dilution of strength) and Movistar,

Maybe I was a little harsh on Nibali, but personally I find it difficult to believe that he is separate to what appears to be a culture within the team.
Perhaps he is a good egg, and is simply a hard working and talented rider. Like anybody else, I'd prefer this to be the truth over the alternative.

IMO Richie Porte is definitely going to the Tour. Look at the tweet that Chris Froome sent him on the day he left the Giro:
"We all face adversity at some point, it's how you come back from it that counts! "
That screams "Come to France with me to try to win the Tour" if you ask me.

I think Sagan will be left disappointed with the lack of resources he'll get at the Tour, Oleg seems singular in going for Yellow.
He's been ok before with little help at Cannondale, but it's looking more and more like he joined the wrong team for him. Top sprinters and GC teams just don't mix, look at Cav when he was at Sky.

I believe he will be too, but we have had no word on that knee injury. If it's bad he may not be in the best shape.

agreed on sagan. He probably will have to wing it with limited support. Same tactic, may not outrightly win many sprints but consistency will be key. with kristoff in such fine form he may not be able to run away with the green jersey like previous years.

My 2 cents is that we don't have a single thread only for the Tour de France. I felt the Giro thread was poorly attended overall and the discussion minimal on a daily basis. A few times, I wanted to start independent threads about Contador, his racing style, past doping, recovery from brain surgery etc etc, but refrained. Likewise wanted to start independent discussion about Ryder but refrained. The TdF will get much more interaction with a lot of topics. A single flat thread does not cut it. I think we should openly discuss the TdF in new threads daily, with topics pertinent to the racing at hand. Anyone who does not want to know what happened in the Tour should just avoid the internet and certainly any endurance sport website like ST. "Spoiler" is a decade old thing. Time to kill it.

Dev

I struggle to rule out the Contador double because he seems to defy the logic behind riders not being able to win the double in the modern era. Riding the Giro can't be as bad as breaking your leg in terms of physical body toll can it? If you can fracture your leg in the Tour and still win the Vuelta or dislocate your shoulder in the Giro and still win, is the Giro really going to prevent a win in the Tour? For anyone else I would say it isn't possible but if Cantador has one "super-human" ability it seems to be his physical ability to recover from trauma.

In my opinion for Contador to win he needs some luck,some hard work and great timing. When I look at Ryder in the Giro it was amazing to see how much stronger he got as the race went on. In the final week he managed to go from 10th to 5th I believe. I think if the tour starts off a bit soft Contador will get a bit more rest and then hopefully he can be strong for that final 1.5 weeks. Usually the tour doesn't work that way so i'ts a long shot. I'd like to see him take it just for the double's historical value but Quintana is the one I'm hoping see leave with all the glory otherwise.

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"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

Actually, the idea of *spoilers* is becoming more prevalent as people take to binge watching TV series, etc.

No one that advocates the idea of spoilers wants to see people refrain from discussing the topic at hand....just don't put spoilers in the title. Heck, I'm more than willing to start 21 threads before the race that say "Tour de France Stage XX Discussion Thread - *spoilers*"

As I have pointed our previously, there are many subjects being discussed on ST besides race results. Advocating a policy of *spoilers* is an inclusive policy as it lets all members of the forum participate in whatever threads they choose. I don't see why anyone would object to that.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

If anyone wants to post daily, go for it. I just do not understand how putting spoiler in the topic/thread title is a problem. For tactics for instance. Instead of Contradors winning tactic, why not "Today's winning tactic" ............I just do not understand I guess

Sometimes a thread title like "Froome's illegal gel feed on Alpe d'Huez" or "Cavendish blows it and takes out 5 others" results in more discussion than a couple of comments deep in a comprehensive thread on the entire tour or a "today's stage thread". Seriously if people don't want to know what happened in the world, probably better to steer clear of the internet and media. That's my 2 cents.

I think Dan is missing out on a lot of traffic, discussion, banter and eyeballs with this ancient spoiler policy. There would be much more excitement and energy during the Tour (or Giro) with much more open discussion. The reality is that open discussion about the Tour (name your event) will drive more energy/eyeballs/posts/excitement to this forum around people excited about the event at hand than others wanting to come here for other reasons while wanting to watch their PVR recording later. Those guys are typically not contributors to ST content anyway (that's my 2 cent opinion). In the end more content creates an exciting forum.

Ok....I see your point. makes sense...thanks

I think Dan is going to miss out on a lot more traffic if people start putting spoilers in the title of threads. I will watch every stage of the Tour - as I did the Giro - but, I will record them when they air in the morning and watch them when I get home from work in the evening. The first time my excitement to get home and watch is ruined because someone posts a stage winner in the title of a thread will be the last time I visit slowtwitch during the Tour.

Thanks in advance for not ruining July for me.

Ryan

I'm just curious why you mention spoilers when the race hasn't happened yet?

I don't want to know what happened until I watch it on my DVR so I usually heed Dev's advice and stay off of ST until I do so. So yes, Dan does miss out on my traffic until that point. Not sure if he cares though. I understand there still is a no spoiler policy in the forum currently, but someone ALWAYS fucks it up every year. Been burned too many times before...so it's shame on me if I get burned again.

Nobody is preventing open discussion. You can discuss anything you want in a thread.

If you cannot be bothered to click on a separate daily thread just because it doesn't tell you in the title what happened, you are best left out of the discussion in the first place

have you watch the tour in the Alpes? go and see after let me know...Giro and vuelta are very beautiful race but nothing to compar...i know what i'm talking 6 years professional 5 Tours, 2 volts and 3 giros

I don't think I understand your reasoning here, dev. If there is a thread titled *TdF Stage 3 Discusssion thread - Spoilers* are you saying that some people who are interested in discussing that stage won't enter the thread because the title is not exciting enough?

But let's assume you are right...so start a thread that says "Holy cr*p! Today's TdF stage discussion thread".

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Dauphine is over now...any changes in predictions?

Froome looks solid again. He'll need that Sky train in full force though to play to his style. Nibali looks strong as well...but for sure not playing all his cards and 100% focus on the tdf. Tejay at least gives some hope to Americans that he just *might* have a shot at the podium.

Quintana for the win unless he crashes out along with the usual half of contenders who don't make it to the mountains.

I think Contador is going to take it. Froome will lose some time on the cobbles, but make up time in the mountains, just not enough to go above second. I predict Tejay is third, also taking time on the cobbles but losing time in the mountains overall. Quintana loses time on the cobbles, gets caught in a cross-wind and loses more time, but makes it up in the mountains to get back to 4th. Nibali rides solid but has a bad day in the mountains and slides to 7th or 8th.

Not sure you can take much away other than Tejay looking on form. That said, even a top 5 is going to be tough sledding for him. Froome can beat that field at probably 95% fitness. Can't really walk away with any conclusive idea where Nibali is. Quintana has been hiding out in Colombia forever and while Contador will always put up a fight, does he have enough in tank to mano-a-mano with Froome, Quintana and Nibali? Talansky and Purito looked lost in the woods.

In my opinion the biggest question is which French guy will get 5th.

Quintana will win if he can make it through the first week. But..........

Something will happen to him. (Crash, mechanical at a bad time, caught out in a cross wind, etc.)

Froome for the win. Nibali and van Garderen to fill out the podium. (Unfortunately, something bad will happen to Contador, too.)

Sagan for the green jersey.

Polka dot jersey is always a shot in the dark to predict, but why not Esteban Chaves (from OGE).

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Nacer Bouhanni.

If I remember correctly, Quintana was one of the few GC guys to actually race cobbles and I think he did multiple races. Again I could be wrong but I remember him being quoted as saying he enjoyed them. Not that that predicts any sort of success but I think being confident on the cobbles is half the battle. I could see him being one of the top GC guys coming off the cobbles.

With all the climbing I like Quintana to win this race. From a fan perspective I hope TJ gives them all hell though. I don't think he is explosive enough to hang with the others when the shit hits the fan though.

He raced E3 and Dwars Door Vlaanderen. As I recall it was more or less the same strategy as Valverde did last year with a few cobbles races: Take part, but don't really compete. Use them to scout, but don't risk a crash or anything. Didn't really seem to help Valverde though.

From Nibali's example, a strong team, a specific plan, and excellent bike handling skills more than made up for lack of 'on cobble' race experience.

valid point

News today is that Kittel is out of the tour. Will it be Cav and Kristoff fighting for green?

If Sagan was on a team dedicated to himself I would think he would have a great chance for green looking at how difficult the finishes for the "sprinter" stages are and he could mix it up on the uphill finishes like the Mur stage. I don't think he is going to get enough support to do it though.

 


The Astana team doping is absolutely a stain on Nibali, whether warranted or not. 5 guys positive in the year he wins? And his reaction was very Lance-esque where he just threw these guys under the bus. To think that the team has a doping program elaborate enough for 5 guys to get caught in an era where riders stay ahead of testers fairly consistently makes it hard to believe he is clean (again - warranted or not). That's why I'd rather see someone else (and yes, someone else can likely be linked to some scandal as well, but the hate I have for Astana right now makes me root for someone else).

Can you enlighten me on the Froome scandal? Seriously, not fishing...I just don't know of anything other than the test he missed and the story about Extraterrestrial DNA - which was published on April fool's day.

The stuff I read today he claims he was on vacation and the testers showed up early morning and hotel staff wouldn't let them in. Seems plausible but also suspect at the same time. He claims responsibility for it but easy to do now that's its past.

I desperately want to believe he's as clean as he says he is but damn it's hard to trust anybody in cycling right now.

Yeah - I saw that too. I'm not a fan or hater of Froome, I'm just curious what the other poster is linking him to as far as scandals, yet stating that Nibali is squeeky clean. I'd have to think missing one test is squeekier-cleaner than being on a team with a massive doping scandal? Makes me think there is something else that Froome has been tied to that I don't know about. I don't follow him closely, so that's why I asked.

Agreed. It's one thing to be in a scouting race to check out the cobbles when the stakes aren't high and victory isn't the goal, and another at the biggest race in the world in cobbled conditions. I just don't think Quintana is going to come out of those in the best position and don't think Movistsr will protect him well enough in an early, transitional stage. I'd love to see him win, as he just seems like a great guy to root for, but I think it's going to be a future Tour(s) for him.

There's been a small mention of it, but not much...

Does anyone know which American guys are racing? Who do we think will be top American? I was gutted watching Talansky's struggles last year (he's one of my favorite riders).

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"Don't you have to go be stupid somewhere else?"..."Not until 4!"

You need to look at nibali BEFORE he joined astana. I have followed him since he was a really young lad just getting started in cannondale and he has never had a sniff of doping around him. His results followed a natural progression to winning the tour, and he was already podiuming in grand tours before he joined astana and won the giro then the tour. his tour win? nothing really out of the ordinary. He won the tour on the cobbles when froome crashed and contador lost two minutes. Nibali is known for being an excellent rider when it gets wet and gnarly. an suspicions into his performance? not really. http://sportsscientists.com/...e-front-of-the-tour/

Why did he join astana? because cannondale could never offer him enough support to win a grand tour. was it a wise career move? that's up for debate. Other than, perhaps mixing with the wrong company, nibali has never given anyone cause to suspect him.

Nibali throwing them under the bus: well if he had nothing to do with it? what would you do if it was your job and livelihood on the line?
Grand tour stars like nibali and contador have an entourage arund tham that usually follow them to whatever team they go to. for nibali, that's agnoli, cataldo, and vanotti. none of them were implicated. Yes, I'll admit, nibali hasn't been great on the PR front when it comes to fielding questions about doping, but that doesn't mean he doped.


Froome, meanwhile, has been under suspicion for a long time. if you pay attention to important sports science blog here:

http://sportsscientists.com/2013/07/froomes-first-mountain-performance-cue-debate/

Also, in case you don't know anything about where froome was before becoming a star at sky:


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-2673588/Chris-Froomes-secret-battle-Eight-doctors-six-clinics-four-countries-five-different-illnesses-remarkable-personal-struggle-Great-Britains-Tour-France-champion.html

I work in healthcare. I'm not a doctor, but Bilharzia and Thyphoid are no joking matter. If you've been having bilharzia for YEARS, as claimed, and you come back and shoot to stardom in two years? Froome was a nobody languishing in barloworld before sky picked him up. I struggle to believe that Sky's doctors can be that miraculous. maybe his body really his made of steel.

His doping scandal: Froome was caught for steroids, but was later cleared under use of a TUE for use of it for his asthma. see the above

Does this MEAN froome doped? no. I certainly hope not. I for one am for giving the benefit of the doubt until caught with a smoking gun. but, for me, froome is more suspicious than nibali. I'd admit, maybe, I am abit biased to nibali, but I've laid out the evidence. can I conclusively say he's clean? no. but he's certainly less suspicious. besides, he races aggressively and is always fascinating to watch.

You are discrediting a lot of what you say b/c of the bolded section.

Yeah, i remember him losing the 2010 Vuelta first to Ezquiel Mosquera and then to Peter Velits. I also happen to remember David Arroyo winning the 2010 Giro...

Nibali was not even good enough to finish top 5 in the 2011 Vuelta, much less defending his "second place"

Kittel dropping out will make it more difficult for Sagan. With one less rider to split up the points among the "sprinters", Cavendish might gain enough points from his stage wins to take the green jersey.

However, it appears there aren't that many stages for someone like Cavendish (stages 2, 5, 7, 15, and 21) and if he takes an "all or nothing" approach, has an unlucky crash/mechanical, or gets caught out by crosswinds on one or more of these stages that could hurt him.

Sagan's support might be lacking due to Tinkoff-Saxo trying to help Contador, but he seems to do OK even without a lot of team support. I think it will come down to Kristoff, Degenkolb, or Sagan, but at any rate it should be a closer competition than it's been in recent years.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Should be a lot of fun to watch. It seems like every jersey will have a decent competition to win it.

Any guess on who wears yellow first? That short of a TT doesn't suit Martin as well. I would like to see Spartacus in yellow again but I think Dumolin might be the best bet with his current form.

It does not sound plausible. It sounds like BS designed to fool the public who does not know how the system works. The testers have phones. They would have called Froome if they had problems with access.

The interesting question will be who has yellow after the first week: Short ITT, Muur de Huy, Cobbles. Who is good at all of these?

If I were a betting man, I'd go with an EQS rider. Most likely Kwiatkowski, but I could also see Stybar or Alaphilippe...

Of the GC guys, I'd bet that Nibali would be the best placed

I honestly don't know how it specifically works but I don't think calling them is part of the process. In Cavendish's second book he talks about missing tests simply because him/his agent didn't update his locations properly and he doesn't say anything about getting phone calls from testers wondering where he is.

To me this case seems easier to look past because they at least knew where he was.

Mo Farrah missed a test allegedly because he couldn't hear his door bell in the top/back room of his house. The question of why didn't they just phone him and tell him to let them in was asked, and UK anti doping have been reported in the UK as having said that their testers are not allowed to contact athletes like that as it amounts to giving them advanced notice of the test. The first you are supposed to know of the test is when you open the door/they walk in the room/they appear at your training venue/etc.

Assuming that is true, then combine it with a minimum wage, non cycling fan on the front desk of the hotel in question, who hasn't a clue that Mr Froome is a top international athlete (as opposed to just another high roller), and therefore has no sense of the potential implications of drug testers being turned away, then it's certainly a plausible reason.

YMMV on whether you believe it or not.

The cobbles will produce the largest of time gaps, followed by Mur de Huy. If this were last year i'd have said Kwiatokowski, but he really didn't do well in the Belgian Ardennes this year. Not as certain about Alaphilippe's abilities on the cobbles.

Valverde may as well be wearing Yellow after Mur de Huy, and there's a good chance he won't be far behind the winner of the cobbles stage.

Would also add Degenkolb and GvA to the list of possible leaders after the cobbles stage

Ahhh. No Galibier or Telegraphe this year due to tunnel damage. I am sad. I'm sure Quintana is very sad.

Agree about Valverde after the Muur. Though disagree about after the cobbles. He came in 2:28 down on last year's stage.

Thanks for the background. The Froome info doesn't sway me much (I'm one of those who believe its still rampant no matter who you're cheering for) but good insight. And I'm a believer in the 'where there is smoke there's fire' analogy in cycling with doping. And his throwing teammates under the bus the way he did and threatening to sue someone for trying to tie him to Ferrari just reeks of Lance type behavior to me. C'est la vie. Whoever is the GC contender - there's some way to try to tie them to it.

On topic, I'm hoping TJ be a podium threat this year but at least hoping that with Froome and Contador and Q back this year it will be more competitive to watch while i spin on the trainer.

Well, they repalced it with the Croix de Fer (one of my favorite climbs).....it ain't exactly a stroll through the park.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

3 days of Croix de Fer/Glandon is a bit of a bummer. Really no other options though.

In today's "weird 2015 TdF news":

http://www.bicycling.com/...srupt-tour-de-france

Sorry if I posted a spoiler... ;)

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Travis Rassat
Vector Cycle Works
Noblesville, IN
BikeFit Instructor | FMS | F.I.S.T. | IBFI
Toughman Triathlon Series Ambassador

Good point.

I guess to the list we should also add Cancellara and Sagan, in particular the latter as he's pretty good at prologues, relatively decent (probably conceding no more than 25 seconds) on the Mur, and can take out chunks of time on the cobbles.

I would like to think in most cases Sagan would do very well the opening week but what kind of support is he going to get when they are going to be riding for Contador? Would they use Sagan as a super domestique for the cobbles and then let him attack if Contador is sitting well?

AC didn't ride well on the cobbles last year so it's hard to know if they will hold him back to help GC aspirations or let him loose with a helper or two.

Very cool documentary about Quintana in Spanish:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONLzDf0mjE8

I'd think that that decision would be made in advance of the stage. By the time you know if AC is doing ok or not, Sagan would be too far back of the specialists to compete for a stage win.

Last year, having a helper or not made a good difference. Notice Porte gaining time (+40s on AC) thanks to having a dedicated Thomas ushering him through the troublespots. By contrast, Boom & Van Marke were allowed to ride off to leave Mollema and Ten Dam on their own. Mollema finished just ahead of AC, but Ten Dam lost a good minute or two even vs AC.

I'd hope that Tinkov lets him ride though... Would make for a much more interesting stage.

I hope Sagan gets a green light as well as Cancellara. Everything I have seen makes it look like Trek might go all in with Mollema for GC but I would find it hard to believe they hold Cancellara back to guide him over the cobbles.

Hey everyone I created a slowtwitch league on Velogames

League: Slowtwitch
League Code: 29182819

Mollema is a top 10-15 GC guy: stages and/or possible yellow much more logical for Trek.

I don't expect to see FC shepherding Mollema ...

What is the best way to watch the TDF? I don't get NBC Sports -- Is there an app for Amazon FireTV by any chance?

http://www.steephill.tv will have links to internet feeds from various broadcasters.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

You can buy web access (and iphone or android app) from NBC for $25, well worth it in my opinion, for a nice HD feed, instead of messing with the grainy feeds you can get from the pirated streams.
http://tourdefrance.nbcsports.com/

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http://www.instagram.com/cyclewise

I used the NBC Sports App last year and did not have to pay anything....I simply opened the App, signed in through my provider (Comcast) and voila....good to go.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Channel 5 news team directed by Ron Burgundy has entered!

Contador-3 stages, GC
Valverde-1 stage win (stage 3)
moreno
majka-1 stage
cavendish-5 stage wins
sagan-1 stage win, 7 podiums, green jersey
cancellara-1 stage win (stage 1)
martin
rowe

Contador will benefit from a good TTT and ITT, he will stay out of trouble, and the climbs are hard but should be easily handled by his strong team
Froome- eliminated early again in this tour, stage 9 TTT will be the final nail
Sagan- Takes a stage, bunch of podiums, and the green jersey
Cavendish- 4-5 stage wins and will be very close to getting the green
Epic sprint battles this year with Kittel absent and big points for first, Greipel will have a good tour
Astana unleashing the doped up pain train on their rivals
Quintana will have a good race but not enough, 3rd GC
Stage 3 could be one of the most interesting stages of the tour, should be pretty epic battle between riders like Sagan/Kristoff and the Valverde's
Opening TT will be very interesting, hard TT, this will be very close, going with Cancellara as he is coming back to very good form and has done well in middle distance TT's.

The NBC TdF 2015 iPhone app is available now also for 19.99.....I'd say it's worth it, especially since I still have the 2014 version and all of the full stage replays are still available. I'm not sure if that'll last forever, but it's been a year now and the ability to just pick a stage and airplay it to my TV is pretty awesome. Very worth it, IMO.

That's because you're paying for NBC Sports via Comcast, right? The way I understand this is that if your package does not contain NBC Sports, signing in through them won't work.

At any rate, I'm pretty pumped about this and my wife is already annoyed that I'm taking over the TV for 3 weeks (we only have 1, and I never command the clicker other than cycling races).

Yes, but many people don't know that they can get it for free if it is on their provider program and they drop the $25 anyway.

If you get NBCSN through your provider, you don't have to pay for online coverage through the App.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Yes if you already have cable or satellite you can watch online or via the app for free, I was responding to the poster that stated that he dose not have cable/satellite.

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http://www.instagram.com/cyclewise

Not bad. I would like to see Cav win that much but not many stages suit him unless he is in top top form. The sprinter stages are more suited to a Sagan, Degenkold, or Kristoff. I expect the latter two to have a good Tour with proper team support. Sagan will be hung out to dry I think.

Sagan has never needed one. The only instance I can recall in recent past was Benatti leading him out at one stage of TdS. He's also on the TdF squad.

What time will the ITT air live in North America? They are 6 hours ahead...

not a leadout but he HAS needed a team to pull back a break or get him to a good spot in an intermediate sprint. If they're all in to protect Mr. Clenbutador, it may not work out so well for Sagan in this tour.

I like your predictions! I agree with most of them but would add the following:

- Nairo Quniana is bound to take 1 or 2 mountain stages and will end up with the Polka Dot.
- I don't see Majka contenting for any stages or jerseys - he'll be 100% riding for AC. But I think we'll see him as a team GC leader in a year or two.
- Kwiatkowski to win stage 4. A long stage that has a spring classic feel, including cobbles, is perfect for an aggressive all-rounder like him.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Maybe, maybe not. Degenkolb will presumably also want to go for those points.

Chapeau! It's on like Donkey Kong

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Swim. Overbike. Walk.

He looks to be in cracking form. Rode a very strong second place at the British Championships, the result doesn't mean much on it's own but the interesting thing was how light and lean he's looking, he was coping with some pretty steep climbs with no problems. Looks like he's trimmed down to try and expand the number of stages where he has a chance.

Well, yes, if you only look at his wins. If you throw in his bazillion 2nd and 3rd places, though.....

Quintana and Nibali have the best teams backing them up for sure. If Valverde nurses Quintana up the mountains, it's going to be hard to best him. I'm hoping Tejay gets on the podium, but I don't think it will happen. He does have a chance to gain a bit of time after the ITT though.

I really hope the MTN-Qhubeka squad pulls off a decent race. They all seem like cool down to earth guys. A few half decent climbers in there as well :)

Ps: Team Charlie Brown is entered.

Wait, what?

Valverde is gonna "nurse" Quintana up the mountains?

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Sky's line-up looks pretty strong as well. Porte dropping out of the Giro and thus being available and recovered for the TdF is a big boost for them, he has too many bad days to be a real contender in his own right but he's a very strong wingman in the mountains for Froome as we saw in 2013. Kennaugh is on great form after winning British championships. Thomas came second in Tour de Suisse. Stannard is a work horse, he was badly missed by Sky last year. Roche is a good addition to the team, as much for his tactical awareness as what he brings on the road, that's been something Sky have struggled with in the past. And Konig is also a great addition for them - 3 Grand Tours, 3 top 10 finishes. They're certainly not short of horsepower to try and protect Froome through the cobbles, set pace when needed and put in a good TTT performance. There might be a question mark over their out and out climbing strength - other than Porte I'm not sure how many of them are likely to be still there for Froome at end the of the big mountain days. Kennaugh has the potential to step up on that front, as does Thomas (though with Thomas it seems like we've been talking about his potential forever now and are still waiting for him to really break through in GT terms), but for both it will depend how much work they have to do before they even get to the big mountains.

I'm assuming you mean Tejay could gain time in the TTT; he's not any better than Quintana, Froome or Contador in the ITT, which is only 14k.

Saxo is as every bit as good as any other team when it comes to backing GC contender.

Yeah sorry, I meant the TTT. And Sky is a fantastic team for sure. The race is going to be wide open I believe. I guess I didn't mean Valverde is going to nurse him up the mountains, but having a teammate who was top 5 last year help your leader is a big help. I know how strong of a climber Quintana is. I think Quintana is going to take the win this year. If Valverde and Quintana work together in the mountains they can put a huge chunk of time into Nibali, VanGarderen, Contador, and the Frenchmen. It's going to be a fun race that's for sure.

Any reviews of NBC sports online coverage? I'm probably going to spring for the Full Tour Package. I have good 4G data connection so ideally I'd be able to watch it online through that. It would need to have the ability to watch it later in the day too as I may not be able to watch all of it while working :P

I really wish the ITT and TTT were in the opposite positions for this tour. Stage 9 is really late for a TTT, especially after the carnage of the first week and a stage over the cobbles. Some teams will be a significant disadvantage, though nothing but bad luck. Luckily, the stage is pretty short, so that will limit the chances for significant losses.

Had they opened with the TTT, they would have had all teams on equal footing re: numbers and a great spectacle to open the race. Having the ITT on stage 9 would have put more weight on it leading into the mountains and any losses / gains would mostly be down to the rider, not bad luck.

Just my $.02.....

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

100% agree

The TdF could do a 180km TTT, and hold the stage in Panama City, Florida... oh snap, that's already been done.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Not replying to you in particular, just the thread. I just read that Lars Boom has tested with a bit of cortisol in his system and has put Astana in the doing hot-seat again. Has this team lost all credibility now? I always kind of liked Nibali but it is hard to trust this team after the past year.
Story http://velonews.competitor.com/...tent=070415_Prologue

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Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Majka was the KOM last year so Contador should have plenty of help in the mountains.

Elevated cortisol is not against the rules, but it does contravene MPCC rules, an organization that Astana is a part of. The kicker is that Boom is a monster, especially on the cobbles an in dutch style racing (not to mention he's solid on the TT bike), so he is a key helper for Nibali in the first week... This puts them in a bit of a pickle... They can either start with 8 riders, exclude Boom, or leave MPCC and start all 9.

Given the tenuous ground that the team is on with the UCI with their rich doping history, if Vinokourov had half a brain (which I'm not sure he does), the only move to make is to sit Boom, and proceed with 8 riders. While it's in their rights to go with the other option and leave the MPCC, for a team under such an ethical microscope, the perceived meaning of such a move could be a death blow on the team moving forward....

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Adam

Euro-Sports.ca/The Foodery Team member

I just read that Lars Boom has tested with a bit of cortisol in his system and has put Astana in the doing hot-seat again.

Low cortisol, not high.

Astana showed in the Giro that their doping program is very effective for performance. Do they know something that others don't, or are they flirting with the limits? Probably the later, given all their positive tests.

How I'd like the 4 top guys to finish:

Contador
Quintana
Nibali
Froome

What I predict:

Froome
Nibali
Quintana
Contador

Hasn't Contador been stripped of titles due to doping convictions? And weren't there other (more serious) doping allegations that he somehow avoided despite pretty convincing evidence he was guilty? It's hard to get too picky in cycling, but I try to avoid cheering for guys who have previous convictions. I hope Contador gets beat handily, finishes off the podium. I doubt it will happen though. I would like to see Quintana, VanGarderen, and Froome on the podium with Talansky and Rodriguez close behind. It won't happen, but that would be fun.

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Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Just because someone doesn't have a conviction doesn't render him inherently more worthy of cheering. I have deep suspicions re: Froome, Nibali, and Quintana. Somehow Quintana was left off the hook in 2013 when people grilled Froome, whereas his climbing numbers were almost as good. Froome went from not being able to crack top 10 in 2011 Tour of CA as the protected GC leader (that's what Greg Henderson in an interview after the stage he won) but catapulted himself to second place in the Vuelta. The evidence against Nibali is more tenuous, but both Liquigas circa 2009 and Astana have some shady history. Known unknown and unknown unknowns...

Best not to think any of them is clean. That said, i'd be really disappointed if it turns out that Dan Martin is up to no good.

The MPCC has rules on cortisol to attempt to reduce cortisone abuse. The idea is that if a rider is requires cortisone then he is not well enough to race and should sit out for eight days. Things like stress also reduce cortisol levels.

While the usual suspects pile on Astana, keep in mind that none of the teams for the other contenders, Sky, Tinkoff, and Movistar, belong to the MPCC so they abide by the cortisol rules that the MPCC teams do.

Seems Astana have decided to race Boom anyway. Does that mean they now have to leave the MPCC?