I thought that too, and then saw that he biked at 100TSS. Try biking 1 hour FTP, and then run Sub-5-minute-miles for 10K. Also, ITU pack riding is a lot more twitchy, so it's hard to judge effort based off of NP and Average Power.

Haven't you heard the bike leg in ITU is just a blow dry after the swim (shampoo)?

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Steve

"If you ain't first, you're last." Reese Bobby Talladega Nights

the normalized power is 4.7 watts/kg

that puts him in studly cat 2, or lower end cat 1 road cyclist.

You ever done a cat 2 road race?

good luck.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Yes, very true I didn't notice the TSS and IF numbers. .95 IF puts his Threshold at 315, pretty good for 140 lbs. It does, however, underscore the fact that the superior swimmer runners dominate ITU racing. A racer who was larger, say 170 pounds with the same watts/kg, say like 385 watts, still would have a hard time using the additional power to his advantage given drafting and the exponential increase in air resistance at speeds above 25 mph. The extra weight would then make it harder for him to run the 30 minute 10ks the leaders run. Interesting.

Admittedly this was years ago and Chrabot is pretty short, but imagining his actual weight from racing bikes against him in college as being 140lbs is pretty tough. He's pretty jacked.

even if he is a bit bigger, and merely an average cat 2 cyclist.

that is a hell of a cyclist.

you go do your local sprint/oly tri, there will usually be 0 people there that strong.

and of course aside from the pure power output, it takes a very good cyclist to keep himself in a position where he doesn't have to do 400 watts for an hour, and not crash, and not be TOO far back in the pack.

In other words the rather huge host of skills that are a major part of cycling, suddenly are also relevant in ITU, where they are not in non drafting races.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

I wasn't discounting the skill/power of Matt (or any other ITU racer), merely pointing out that I have a hard time believing he only weighs 140 lbs.

Yes I've done cat 1,2,3 races. I actually didn't do as well since I couldn't sprint and people at that level are hard to break off of you slipstream, especially when they work with their "team mates". I actually have a higher FTP than him but I weigh 20 more lbs so almost the same watts/kg but I cannot run or swim that fast. Like I said very quality athletes in all their sports but I guess more on a relative than absolute basis.

Plus they are doing laps of a small tight circuit, so lots of accelerations to contend with, not the straight forward route of most non-drafting races.

Some events are hillier than others too, no sure how hilly SD was. The bike studs can target the hilly races, or get lucky with horrifically windy days!

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

I dunno. He said he's fitter than he's ever been. I could believe he's 140 in tip-top shape. He is 5'9" as well.

Ah yes, well said, cycling is a very "cerebral" sport and requires gambling, risk taking, a bit of luck and planning, not to mention handling skills normal triathletes have no idea about, I think many AGers would be shocked at how different bike races are than triathlon "TTs". ITU definitely has many of these aspects which definitely complicates things.

Yea, I just imagine myself at an inch+ shorter and subtracting 10-13 lbs is tough. Where does it go?? haha

similar thing with swimming, ITU or not, since both allow drafting there. I'm always amazed by how aware of the situation most of the pros are. They know whose feet they are on and where the swim packs are.

I never know anything! Except maybe where the next buoy is, hopefully.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

"I know he's 140lbs but still"??? TJ is over 11kg heavier than he is. As in almost a 15 percent difference. As in thats not a but still, that a huge difference.

If you use 4.7 watts like jack has that means that if they had equal power/weight ratios TJ's would be close to 350 watts. The FTP range for ironman difference is 70-80 percent, and since TJ is a great biker i'll use 80 percent that puts him at about 278 or so. Essentially right where Chrabot is based on FTP. I think TJ's is actually a bit higher so that is probably an overestimation of the percent he's racing at but still they aren't that far apart. Which you would expect since they are both pros.

LMAO...this is so me too. I always wonder how they know those things in the water...I don't have a clue. I just go....

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I'm faster in Kilometers!
Wattie Ink Triathlon Team
Powered by Accelerate 3

That's kind of what I was saying, the "but still" part meant that although it is a good number relatively, absolutely speaking its a lower number than I expected. They swim and run fast "absolutely" yet the power numbers are lower than I thought although "relatively" very good. Its just a point in saying a guy like TJ is significantly "absolutely" stronger on the bike but could not hope to use his additional power to his advantage because he would never drop those guys off his wheel.

That chart is off, FWIW. When I was a cat 3, I routinely had an NP of 310-315 from my races. As a cat 2 (in the P12 field), it was in the ballpark of 340.

They are running flat out, no sitting in the pack and catching the draft. The swim is probably pretty similar. Sure there is some drafting but I doubt anyone is "sitting in" and just riding the pack into T1 - they are at the max of their abilities. On the bike, unless someone is on a solo break away most everyone is only working at their max a portion of the time - except the guys hanging on for dear life at the back. You save a lot of watts in the pack, which is how so man relatively weaker riders can manage to hang until T2. Even though Matt was in a small lead pack and working hard for a couple of laps with Brownlee, after that he was sucked back into the pack and was able to back off a little and hold position with the majority of the athletes. The power file is a result of the nature of the draft legal format, not necessarily a good reflection of their absolute abilities.

One thing that people overlook is the rest periods. There is always talk about how hard the ITU rides are (and I agree they are hard). But these are highly conditioned athletes. They recover from those spikes and are able to pull off very fast runs. If they were not able to recover from those spikes during the rest, their run splits in draft legal racing would be generally slower than their very own 10K splits in non drafting events, but what we see is the same guys generally run slower in non drafting. So realistically as much as everyone wants to look at NP (which is an artificial construct and may not really approximate the physiological cost as closely as we think), perhaps the more fair view is to look at Average Power which is the actual energy expenditure that gets the athlete from T1 to T2. In non drafting races the average power and thereby the actual calorie depletion is higher. The key is that the athlete can recover from the spikes in draft legal racing. Generally these guys do recover from the spikes during the zero watt/low power periods. Otherwise perhaps they don't run that fast.

If we look at the Hyvee results from 2011, not a single man broke 33 and Haskins and Laura Bennet only ran 38 and 37 respectively....perhaps Hyvee was a bit longer than San Diego, but still. Hunter Kemper than 33.12.

Anyway, all good monday morning quarterbacking, and as hard as the ITU ride is, seems the physiologically it is still easier than a constant non draft effort with no rest breaks. If not, non drafting run splits would be faster. They almost never are.

Might be that these guys and gals are simply trained specifically for the spiky nature of draft legal racing. NP may or may not be an appropriate metric but they are just able to withstand more highly variable efforts than non-drafting guys. Then they get into non-drafting races and aren't as well trained for the steady state riding. How do 10k times compare from someone who has focused on each type of racing at different times in their career?

FIFY.

Does it really change that much outside of Boulder? The only events outside of Colorado that I've raced are the really big ones, which are always hard, so my experience might be jaded.

That doesn't mean the chart is off.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

well for one you didn't state your weight

for two there's a big range to that chart for each category

for three someone incredibly clever or incredibly NOT clever may fall outside of that range, its just a rule of thumb. a great, tactical sprinter might have a horrid FTP and still win cat 1 races from time to time, and a guy with a cat 1 FTP may never get out of the 4s because he races dumb.

anyway, to be able to bike with as much power as Chrabot can is NOT normal. people who think it is normal because they can do it, don't realize how abnormal they are =)

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

What about the massive spikes in power? everyone knows that a max effort over a min or so takes a huge amount out of you!

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http://stuartwalpole.blogspot.com/

thats why we were talking about normalized power, which sorta attempts to take that into account.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Cat 2 racers are a dime a dozen. And U.S. cat 2 racers are a joke to the euro amateur race scene. I would guess the itu cyclists are resting as much as possible and that's why the brownlees' are successful at breakaways, as they are truly working. No offense, but the racing power file looks like many of the better riders on this forum, week in, week out.

Exactly, comparing a ITU powerfile to a bike race powerfile is non sensical. The goal of one is to use the least power possible and place really doesn't matter, unless you are the rare rider that tries to break away, the goal of the other it to try to get to the fnish line in first place, no matter what the power profile looks like.

Coogans chart is a guideline for what you should be able to do in a test, not what your race powerfile will or should look like.

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Styrrell

Agreed- that's why looking at their files- generally they will be unimpressive- because the goal is for them to be unimpressive. Look at a powerfile of the recent Tour of California, to see what real pro power looks like of a pure cyclist.

yeah and the better riders on this forum are 1%ers

and then these guys swam an 18 minute 1,500 before and run 30 minute 10ks after said bike rides

its simply incredible, and anyone who says differently, i wonder why they aren't racing ITU?

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

everyone is unimpressive to somebody I guess.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

On a stand alone cycling leg compared to other cyclists- yes. Pro Tour Riders have powerfiles of AVG power above 300 watts for 5 hours. Their normative data is even higher. Now back to ITU, they ride well (or as fast as they need to) for the ride being sandwiched into a swim and run. I didn't think this thread was about that, though.

I'm just feeling insecure.
300 is 20 minutes for me and I'm 79kg =)

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

That's why we have day jobs. Maybe get some pointers from your spouse on how to move up coggans chart!

I do, and I got better, but only a LITTLE bit.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Overall, when I see the top ITUers swim times I think, wow that's blistering. When I see they run 30-31 minute 10ks I think wow that's blistering. With these types of performances I don't think if they had an FTP of 5.5 watts/kg that would be out of the ordinary so I expected avg powers of like 330 or so for the breakaway guys in this scenario, because surely some of the bigger guys can put out 330 no problem, but like a stated, being more powerful on the bike doesn't buy you much compared to running ability, therefore power numbers are bound to be lower, both in terms of what the riders themselves can do in relative FTP and within the races themselves.

x2 Dev. Amazes me how so many get defensive when challaneged on the difference between drafting vs non drafting. Its not an insult as to the quality of the itu pro's bike capabilities. Its simply not as hard on average vs the same race non drafting.

Thats not really true and its not being defensive. The race is just as hard as non-drafting you just have a different focus, the swim is significantly harder because the bikers can't lay back in it and you may be more rested for the run but you end up running it harder its just a wash.

Not to shoot hole's in Dev's argument but hy-vee is a horrible example. San Diego was pancake flat and hy-vee has a bitch hill they have to run up I believe 4 times. with winds that were 15-25mph. Its exactly why comparing two races together is silly. There's too many factors, the swim was also absolutely brutal due to it being a river swim with an ugly current that day. Also using hunter's time isn't very useful since he raced the week before in Chicago, vs being basically full on taper for San Diego. I don't think his conclusion is wrong that they run slower because they bike harder but you're just using one at the expense of the other. It's not harder for non-drafting, its just different.

IIRC, the author of that chart did not use any data from the intermediate categories in creating the chart - just samples from untrained and professional cyclists. The values assigned to intermediate categories came from just dividing up the space between untrained and pro.

It will be interesting to see how Dr. Skiba's research paper on this topic comes out. He's already identified CP (~FTP) as the dominant factor in recovering from supra-threshold efforts. I believe that his next release will include data on the effect of "repeatability" training in reloading W.

No chance of selection bias there

Speaking from experience - the swim is just as hard in a non-drafting tri, the bike is harder in a non-drafting tri, and the run is equally as hard in a non-drafting tri - just slower due to fatigue from the bike. This is why those who ride off the front in the draft legal WTS events (with a few notable exceptions: Brownlees, for example) run slower than when sitting in the group. Which is also why very few attempts to get away are made in a high-profile draft legal event.

Because you're allowed to draft, it is harder to distance your peers on the bike in a draft legal event, which is partly why the bike leg in draft legal tri is easier.

Simple concept: a hard bike negatively affects one's run. This is a fact that does not seem lost on the Brownlees - but there are only 2 or 3 of them. It's also a fact that is not ignored by the 60 athletes that got off the bike together in the WTS San Diego event. And it's certainly a fact that is not ignored in non-drafting triathlons.

I'm puzzled as to why more people don't understand this.

Not to stray, but I predict the brothers Brownlee will ride away from the field in the London Olympics and finish 1-2 . . . even though they don't have to.

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Jimmy
http://www.Riccitello.com

They wont outride the likes of Gomez, Russians and anyone else who is on their feet out of T1. They may be in the select group that stays away, but I dont think they are going to try and then gap even that select group.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Yeah, no arguement about the focus of one format vs. the other. In ITU, the bike is under emphasized, and in non drafting there is more focus on potentially making up more time and developing more of a gap on the bike, because the breakaway guy knows his peers will have to work pretty hard to limit losses and the gap developed on the bike is potentially defendable on the run. In draft legal racing, it is fairly rare that one can defend a breakaway lead off the bike, because guys are relatively soft pedaling at average powers of 4W per kilo and can save LOTS of juice for the run....as Jimmy points out in his post.

You're right comparing HyVee is not optimal, but even if you give Hunter a full taper and even if you flatten that hill, he's not closing the 3 minute gap between his HyVee 10K time and San Diego time. 3 minutes is 180 seconds....that's 18 seconds per kilometer, in other words exactly 10% slower than the San Diego run....a taper is not going to give you 10% and a hill that you go up and down 4 times is not going to add up to 3 minutes (you still get some of that back on the downhill)....the real culprit is a harder overall bike at HyVee for Hunter.

Another example is Mirinda Carfrae who was second at HyVee and outran Bennet and Haskins by A LOT. She is not regarded as a strong Ironman biker, but she's not an ITU caliber swimmer either. But when everyone has to push their own wind on the bike, she can outrun some of the best ITU runners that the US has to offer. Which plays into the points that Jimmy makes. Almost Everyone runs slower at non drafting races because the bike is harder. Everyone runs faster at draft legal because the bike is easier.

To the guy who asked about selection bias, I'm not talking about athletes doing one type of racing over the other. I'm talking about when the same athlete does draft legal vs non drafting, and the deltas in their run split.

Seriously, looking at Matt's Average power, is 4.24W per kilo ....his effort on the bike is drastically lower than a 31ish 10K. I think 4.24W per kilo equates to around a 35 min 10K pace (Rchung can chime in with the watts per kilo to meters per second conversion). In non drafting racing the watts per kilo on the bike would probably be closer to the meters per second on the run.

At the London WCS world cup last year, if I recall, Alistair rode away with Bryukhankov and gapped Gomez!

Last year was alot of tactics being played out (it was many countries olympic qualifier). Just like the women's race where they basically rode piano to let the big chase pack form the big peloton. It was how Jorgensen was able to get her Olympic spot.

Gomez didn't need a top 3 at London to make the Spanish Olympic team. That was a very race tactical race in both events. I certainly don't see Gomez and others letting it happen again.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

This is true....and it was raining. However, if it rains in London again, all bets are off on who can follow the Brownlees. One of them takes a flyer while the other guy sits in. If you chase the guy that take the flyer, you basically give the other one an hour to rest up for the 10K. If you sit up and look at each other for someone to chase the guy up the road, then his lead might just get too big!

Lol the race commentators were joking about the weather in the San Diego telecast. Barry Shipley (I think that is his name, if not sorry) joked that he told his wife it would be high of 70s and sunny. The other commentator said you know on race day it'll be raining and high of 50s for a nice show of northern Europe weather.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Resist... resist... resist... ah, can't resist...

Right, I agree, the goal of ITU racing is to make good bike athletes as unimpressive as possible.

Jimmy, a couple of things, one of which supports your summary and one that does not.

Last weekend, I was with Jarrod Shoemaker and Ethan Brown. Jarrod, as most people know was on the 2008 OLY team but fell short a few weeks ago in SD for the 2012 team. Ethan is an up and coming pro. Jarrod told me lots of things about ITU racing, but one that is notable for this thread is that in the last few years, the pace/effort/watts required on the bike has spiked demonstrably.... It used to be that everyone sat back and tried not to do much work, but that has changed. Partly because of the Brownlees and partly because of other factors, Jarrod now feels that the bike leg is very hard and that the tactics have changed. He wasn't specific, but it sounds like the average wattage for these rides have gone up at least 10% and everyone has had to make adjustments for the run. If you are used to running a 31 off of 300 watts and now have to do it off 330 or 340, it is much harder. This is all new as of 2-3 years ago.

Second, and this backs up your point. ITU racing remains a swim/run race despite the increase in difficulty on the bike. Ethan Brown, for example is a much much better cyclist than Jarrod, but his 10k time is probably about 60-90 seconds slower (though it is decreasing). But of course Ethan can't get away on the bike and therefore sits back and probably rides easier than some of the others, but still can't turn around and run the 30 he has to....

David

The bike can be very crucial in ITU racing especially in the first 5km when most of the splitting of the packs occurs. Had Jarrod been stronger cyclist he probably could have been able to hammer the start of the bike and make up the only 8 second gap he came out of the water behind athletes who made it into that lead breakaway

I agree with your first point, not your second. Jonathan Brownlee highlighted the importance of the bike this past weekend and Alistair has spent the last couple of years demonstrating it. Brownlee comes out of the water near the front, but not at the front. He exists T1 with the leaders then he absolutely demolishes the entire field (bar 8 guys) on the bike with the help of the other 8. He goes from having a few seconds gap out of T1 to over 2 minutes by T2....the rest of the field in a big peloton couldn't close the gap and it actually extended considerably!!! Then he goes and runs 30:57 even with all the celebrations in the finishing straight with the crowd (2 seconds slower than fastest run split (Mario Mola, 9th overall)). Matt Chrabot is nowhere near this level. Get the power profile for a Brownlee (or the other 8) and I bet it is pretty impressive. The rest of the world needs to catch up but it is a relatively young sport, draft legal, and expect it won't be too long before we see more guys being able to run fast after hammering it on the bike. The Brownlee's are just the first and perhaps the most tri specific upbringing...i.e. they haven't come from being amazing at one sport (but not WC in that one) and switched to tri as a lot of others. As more people are raised as triathletes this will all change.

It's true that for most it is a swim and run...but if you want to actually win a WCS event (that has a Brownlee present) it is a swim-bike-run.