I understand perfectly well. I'm saying all those little extraneous factors are little, compared to the big bulk factor, which is your genetically determined response to training.

And you do NOT have to hit your max training to 'prove' it. You can extrapolate very well at the AG level of what your theoretical upper ceiling is. (For pros, you can still extrapolate, but given that tiny % of performance differences may dictate winning Kona vs being off the podium, that extrapolation isn't as helpful as compared to the gulfs of perfomances in the AG categories.)