I thought some time about a better answer than my last. So here a different approach.
First about your last remark:
Furthermore, Andy Potts did not do any better by swimming in the pack and arguably did worse. He has finished 4th two times before while leading the swim. Yesterday he finished 7th. He has biked 4:36 and run 2:48 while doing leading the swim, faster than what he did yesterday during a much faster day. Potts had an awesome day because - well, he is Andy Potts. He is as consistent as they come, never gave up and continued pushing. But he flat out was off in the swim, missed the lead swim and got stuck in the way back of the pack, and not to his benefit..
I disagree with your first part.
A faster swim would not have changed anything - if at all for the worse. Of course, those are my five Cents.
I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say. Can you simplify?
More athletes enter T2 within a decreasing timeframe compared to previous years. So more athletes have a viable chance for the podium in case of a great run. As a result all depends on the run performance by chasing competitors down or by staying ahead of competitiors. While a 2:55 - 2:58 run would suffice after great bike splits to enter the podium in previous years, it wasnt sufficient in this year and will be increasingly less sufficient the next few years. Of course leaders still might DNF or blow up during the run, still there are too many great runners entering T2 too close to the leaders in T2.
It is becoming even tougher with James Cunnama (who will probably show a better run performance next year) and esspecially Patrik Nilsson (who imho can also drop a 2:42 next year on the run). Others like David McNamee and Jan Frodeno are to consider also, where I assume a better run performance by David next year (if the conditions fit to him).
To all other athletes the question arises: How can I beat them to enter the podium? The options and my comments:
I consider 3. and 4. the best shots on where and how athletes can improve to compete for the podium. A good run in the 2:55 range probably wont cut it anymore... no matter how well the athlete biked.
First about your last remark:
aerobike wrote:
Furthermore, Andy Potts did not do any better by swimming in the pack and arguably did worse. He has finished 4th two times before while leading the swim. Yesterday he finished 7th. He has biked 4:36 and run 2:48 while doing leading the swim, faster than what he did yesterday during a much faster day. Potts had an awesome day because - well, he is Andy Potts. He is as consistent as they come, never gave up and continued pushing. But he flat out was off in the swim, missed the lead swim and got stuck in the way back of the pack, and not to his benefit..
I disagree with your first part.
- Yes, Andy had an awesome day and performed well in bike and run.
- Yes, he finished 7th and not 4th.
- No, imho he did not do worse, but achieved almost the maximum possible for that day.
A faster swim would not have changed anything - if at all for the worse. Of course, those are my five Cents.
aerobike wrote:
I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say. Can you simplify?
More athletes enter T2 within a decreasing timeframe compared to previous years. So more athletes have a viable chance for the podium in case of a great run. As a result all depends on the run performance by chasing competitors down or by staying ahead of competitiors. While a 2:55 - 2:58 run would suffice after great bike splits to enter the podium in previous years, it wasnt sufficient in this year and will be increasingly less sufficient the next few years. Of course leaders still might DNF or blow up during the run, still there are too many great runners entering T2 too close to the leaders in T2.
It is becoming even tougher with James Cunnama (who will probably show a better run performance next year) and esspecially Patrik Nilsson (who imho can also drop a 2:42 next year on the run). Others like David McNamee and Jan Frodeno are to consider also, where I assume a better run performance by David next year (if the conditions fit to him).
To all other athletes the question arises: How can I beat them to enter the podium? The options and my comments:
- Faster bike split: Considering Wurf/Sanders, I doubt it can be faster without totally blowing the run. As a result a faster bike split is not an option. Also since most athletes are good to very good in Aero, friction and bike training overall, the effort needed for better bike splits is too high - unreasonable. Its just the magic of drag, where the effort needed from 31 to 32 miles/hour is a whole lot less than the effort needed from 41 - 42 miles/hour on the bike.
- Faster swim: Josh Amberger was apparently an all-out swim. A lot of effort for a lead, which crumbles to dust on the bike part.
- Efficient swim/bike: Considering the previous points, it is an option to reduce the effort needed to enter T2 close to the leaders thus enabling the athlete to start the run in best form possible. So its crucial to spend minimal effort on the swim and on the bike, while still entering T2 close to the leaders.
- Efficient run: Considering 1.-3. it is crucial to deliver an efficient run aka the ability to maintain a high run speed at an minmal effort. In running there is a lot, that can go wrong costing unneccessary energy aka exhausting the athlete too fast or dropping the atheltes speed.
I consider 3. and 4. the best shots on where and how athletes can improve to compete for the podium. A good run in the 2:55 range probably wont cut it anymore... no matter how well the athlete biked.