Thank you for presenting an interesting side to the different debate topics on ST during this usually slow time of year. Withthat, there are three major flaws in your initial post that jump out to me: 1) the rate at which the buying public (not pros) will switch to disc brakes on a tri/tt bike, 2) the idea that I have to spend lots of money to prevent the loss of a smaller amount of money, and 3) the notion that the value of parts is going plummet in value as the market shifts to disc braking.
1) As has been pointed out in previous posts, the general public is not that quick to change standards, especially when it will cost thousands of dollars. Examples include 10-11 speeds, mech to electric shifting, aluminum to carbon frames. If the disc brake sky falls, it will take 5-10 years, if it falls at all.
2) Trying to argue that spending money now to save a little bit in the future is a good idea if it involves retirement accounts are rental properties. But just a rough calculation has a high end bike around $8,000. A used value would be around $4,000. If it becomes obsolete, maybe $0. A new disc brake bike is around $10,000. Calculate about a loss of 50% of value to depreciation to $5,000. Worst case to best case is still a $1,000 less of a loss by the rim brake bike owner.
3) There will be a market for most parts, especially high quality parts for the foreseeable future. Just trying to determine what all has to fall into place for disc brake bikes to become the dominate species shows the likelihood of your speculation playing out if very slim.
-edited for initial pleasantries
While a few thousand $ might sound like a lot, it is not enough to get most of us in this sport too riled up.
Oui, mais pas de femme toute de suite (yes, but I am not ready for a woman straight away) -Stephen Roche's reply when asked whether he was okay after collapsing at the finish in the La Plagne stage of the 1987 Tour
1) As has been pointed out in previous posts, the general public is not that quick to change standards, especially when it will cost thousands of dollars. Examples include 10-11 speeds, mech to electric shifting, aluminum to carbon frames. If the disc brake sky falls, it will take 5-10 years, if it falls at all.
2) Trying to argue that spending money now to save a little bit in the future is a good idea if it involves retirement accounts are rental properties. But just a rough calculation has a high end bike around $8,000. A used value would be around $4,000. If it becomes obsolete, maybe $0. A new disc brake bike is around $10,000. Calculate about a loss of 50% of value to depreciation to $5,000. Worst case to best case is still a $1,000 less of a loss by the rim brake bike owner.
3) There will be a market for most parts, especially high quality parts for the foreseeable future. Just trying to determine what all has to fall into place for disc brake bikes to become the dominate species shows the likelihood of your speculation playing out if very slim.
-edited for initial pleasantries
While a few thousand $ might sound like a lot, it is not enough to get most of us in this sport too riled up.
Oui, mais pas de femme toute de suite (yes, but I am not ready for a woman straight away) -Stephen Roche's reply when asked whether he was okay after collapsing at the finish in the La Plagne stage of the 1987 Tour