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Re: Can we quantify road bike risk? [Slowman]
Slowman wrote:
how? if you use general stats on bicycle fatalities, only 1 in 6 wore a helmet. does this sound like your cohort? so, what accident data are you referring to?


I don't believe that stat, but if you did, you could simply say that 5 out 6 fatalities do *not* have anything to do with our cohort. Which leaves a potential of a little over 100 fatalities per year in the US which do. And a large percentage of those get posted on ST.

It's tough to do what you are wanting, since no one is collecting the data at the basic level where it needs to happen. Which is why I just look at the agencies that publish WAGs on rider hours and miles along with the fatality stats. Even if you assume everyone is in your cohort, the odds are very low, like 1 per 5M hours. Actually lower than auto travel! IMO that should be good enough to satisfy anyone who has the perception that cycling is too dangerous, since no one gives a 2nd thought about riding in a car. And if you ride a lot your whole life it comes out to under 1% chance, out of a 100% chance you will die of something. You could go to a lot of effort to show that it is really a bit higher or lower for our cohort, but I don't know that anyone cares enough. Would be cool to know, but it's like a major research project and a lot of approximations will still need to be made.
Last edited by: rruff: Aug 30, 16 11:20

Edit Log:

  • Post edited by rruff (Dawson Saddle) on Aug 30, 16 11:20