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MadTownTRI wrote:

Explain it like I'm stats-challenged, because I am. Knowing the 1/40000 per year figure, what are the odds of getting hit and killed in a 40 year career? Is it the same probability as during a 1 year career? Intuitively, I say no, but suspect this is somewhat like the gamblers fallacy, but in reverse.

I'm not a statistician, but part of my job is data analysis sooo maybe I'll get it right? Your intuition seems correct.

Think of it this way:

You have a 20 sided die, and if you roll an 11 you're dead.

Day one: 1/20 chance you'll roll and die. You roll a 9, whew.
Day two: 1/20 chance you'll roll and die. You roll a 15, whew.

Tomorrow? You'll have a 1/20 chance again. But if you roll once per day over the next 10 days? That is more than a 1/20 chance of rolling an 11 when looked at as a group. I don't need to get into the statistics of what the odds are, because the only thing that is important is that when you look at the opportunity to roll 11 beyond the scope of an individual occurrence the probability increases.

So of course your odds of dying on the bike are greater if you bike 365 days per year vs. 10 trips to the store.

Too old to go pro but doing it anyway
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