I don't have any fancy calculations, but after this past weekend, I think it's very possible. I rode 48 seconds faster on just 7 more watts over 40k despite there being more crosswinds, a little rain, and poorer road conditions this year compared to last. When I got to the start line, I was just hoping to ride 1 minute slower than last year if even if I maintained a slightly higher wattage. Who knew I could be just as fast, if not faster despite the other conditions (rain and rougher road) playing against me.

ETA: My fastest HIM bike split at Honu was in 2011 when the winds were ridiculous. It was also the year LA smashed the bike course record and several other pros rode under 2:10 when normally the fastest bike split of the day is over 2:10.